3rd Quarter Sub Loss Predictions!

[Pann]

What? I never said the people who go to Blizzcon aren't Blizzard fans. I simply stated many of them don't necessarily play Wow. Blizzcon is about more than Wow. You realize that right? It is one of the best ways Blizzard can cross promote all their games and expose them to a larger audience so it is rather ignorant to claim this won't have some effect on Wow subscriptions.

You said that Blizzcon would bring in new WOW players are you seriously suggesting that someone who is big enough fan of Blizzard to attend Blizzcon has not already heard of, their largest and most successful title, WOW?

I never said that Blizzcon would not have an effect on the sub numbers it could be argued that the last one had a rather major effect with the introduction of the Annual Pass. However you stated that it would increase sub numbers and even went as far as to say ".. it is beyond ignorant to claim otherwise" I asked you why when the last Blizzcon did not result in increasing subs this one would. So, again, why will this Blizzcon cause ex-players to return or new players to pick up the game?

[Jtbrig7390]

Was only pointing out what you got wrong, don't care about the rest.

And there is your problem if you are going to quote someone's reply and try to belittle it quote the whole dam thing.

I knew of it starting to film next year but my original point still stands.

As I said ill believe it when I see it but even if it dose release that dose not mean it will have any effect on WOW at all. There is tons of people who enjoy Warcraft's Lore and has never played World Of Warcraft.

[JakeCC]

And there is your problem if you are going to quote someone's reply and try to belittle it quote the whole dam thing.

I knew of it starting to film next year but my original point still stands.

As I said ill believe it when I see it but even if it dose release that dose not mean it will have any effect on WOW at all. There is tons of people who enjoy Warcraft's Lore and has never played World Of Warcraft.

I never said that it would have any effect on WoW, and I agree with your points. I'm just saying that I was pointing out what you got wrong, and you're entitled to your opinions.

[Jtbrig7390]

I never said that it would have any effect on WoW, and I agree with your points. I'm just saying that I was pointing out what you got wrong, and you're entitled to your opinions.

Np and I should have been more clear in my original post because I did know that they said they start filming next year but personally like I said until it release's I take anything said about the WOW movie with a grain of sault.

[getupkid55]

I like how there's no option or even mention of sub increase.

[Jtbrig7390]

I like how there's no option or even mention of sub increase.

Because good chance there won't be each sub drop has been 500k+ and blizzard stated that wow subs will be lower by the end of MOP.

[Synstir]

I think it will be bigger than last quarter... just going by the pop of the server I play on. It is really dead now... I know it is not the best estimation but I have nothing else to base on one.

[Galaddriel]

I doubt that after recent news. WoW Korea was free to play for aynone until today. Inactive, active or new did not matter. It was free to log into the game. They could have pulled in 100k or 200k new player and won't have to call it a trial. Add the release of 5.4 to that and the peak might cover for any other loss.

http://www.guildox.com/go/g.aspx?a=11&w=KR

There's a whopping 12,705 active players in all of Korea. Down from 37k last week.

[Jtbrig7390]

I doubt that after recent news. WoW Korea was free to play for aynone until today. Inactive, active or new did not matter. It was free to log into the game. They could have pulled in 100k or 200k new player and won't have to call it a trial. Add the release of 5.4 to that and the peak might cover for any other loss.

If it was free to play for them they will not count in the sub total because they did not pay to play they played a extended trial.

Also we won't know how much 5.4 helped intil late Q3 early Q4 since it came out in the middle of Q3.

[Jtbrig7390]

Of course it was higher last week. Last week was the first week after fees where dropped and 5.4 was launched.

You are looking at active raiding level 90 character not all active player anyways. Player returning to the game or starting it do not instantly turn to level 90 unless they had one to beginn with. This isnt SoR or a free trial. They let in all player without charging a fee.

And since they don't pay a sub fee they will not count in the sub numbers when the report comes in.

[Galaddriel]

Of course it was higher last week. Last week was the first week after fees where dropped and 5.4 was launched.

You are looking at active raiding level 90 character not all active player anyways. Player returning to the game or starting it do not instantly turn to level 90 unless they had one to beginn with. This isnt SoR or a free trial. They let in all player without charging a fee.

Except those aren't all raiders. That's any active level 90.

Over the last 5 weeks it went 93k > 78k > 61k > 37k > 12k

Another free trial isn't going to save WoW or Korea.

[Pann]

Except those aren't all raiders. That's any active level 90.

Over the last 5 weeks it went 93k > 78k > 61k > 37k > 12k

Another free trial isn't going to save WoW or Korea.

Hmm, you say a free trial will not save WOW Korea but you are forgetting their secret weapon... the experience boosting potion!

Assuming that is not an error, I have had quick look and cannot find any news of Guildox being unable to collect Korean data, that is a staggering drop in activity if this data is correct WOW Korea now has a lower total population than some servers. I wonder how this will affect sub numbers and is China having the same problems?

[hyphnos]

Don't even start. It is common knowledge that Blizzard only includes paying accounts in their subscription numbers.

- - - Updated - - -



It is a subscription based game. Of course Blizzard is going to "milk" it. How about we stop referring to things that are common sense with insulting terms? The fact that you are surprised a business is trying to make a profit is far more insulting than anything Blizzard could ever do or say. Like I said before, if this is an issue for some people they are more than welcome to unsub until LFR is completely open. Blizzard makes a profit either way.

That doesn't change the fact that "milking" ONE EXTRA MONTH out of players wouldn't be necessary if the content itself was good enough to engage players for 5 weeks on its own.

[Pann]

All reputable online game metrics contradict this kind of decline. Korean population grew or remained stable. So these guildox figures appear to fall short on reliability for population tracking.

gamenote.com
up from 10th to 6th place
gametrics.com
stable 12th or 13th
gamereport.netimo.net
stable 12th or 13th

I am not saying that Guildox is reliable, however running the links through Google translate; the first has WOW at number seven with a two in the change column, with an arrow pointing downwards which appears to indicate a drop in activity. And I cannot find any mention of WOW on the other two only Warcraft 3. Unless I am reading this wrong the first site does agree with Guildox that there is a decline.

Does anyone have a reliable source as to what is happening with WOW Korea?

[PrairieChicken]

All reputable online game metrics contradict this kind of decline. Korean population grew or remained stable. So these guildox figures appear to fall short on reliability for population tracking.

gamenote.com
up from 10th to 6th place
gametrics.com
stable 12th or 13th
gamereport.netimo.net
stable 12th or 13th

Actually ALL games in korea except LOL is in decline, so wow is declining in fact (slowly, because the people who remain to the last are ones who will stick around for long time). Just other games are declining too so the chart remains stable

We have free trials for 2 weeks so it naturally went up

[Galaddriel]

All reputable online game metrics contradict this kind of decline. Korean population grew or remained stable. So these guildox figures appear to fall short on reliability for population tracking.

Guildox is endorsed by Blizzard, has been around for years and uses the same armory that Wowprogress uses. There is no question as to it's accuracy.

http://www.guildox.com/about

[Pann]

Guildox is endorsed by Blizzard, has been around for years and uses the same armory that Wowprogress uses. There is no question as to it's accuracy.

http://www.guildox.com/about

I think we need to be cautious about the data that Guildox is providing in regards to Korea as the decline is so sharp. Is there an issue with the WOW Korea Armoury site? Or is there problem with Guildox itself?

If the data is accurate this is a truly staggering as it appears that about 80% of players have been lost in just over a month. Are there any Korean players that post here that can shed some light on what is happening with WOW Korea?

[But I Hate You All]

To the people talking about Korea. Seems to be some major rage going on there from PVP.

If you are not able to control and manage problems in your service, it is the sin to continue providing your contents.

In Korea, there have been lots of serious problems, especially PVP contents.

First of all, 13 season was f*** up by a group so called "Pooh WOW". They are paid by some poor customers and they use some kind of bug to make their customers "Hero of Alliance or Horde". As a result, unreasonable things happened. Look out the following pic.



Yeah, it is a reality made by Blizzard Korea As you figure out the pic, this hunter (Item lvl 427, even he has no trinket..) is the Hero of Horde in 13 season. This is the one of representative examples, if you want to see more examples, search these characters – disame, deadlift, rolang , alecbaldwin, goks.

The group “Pooh WOW” is even now continuing their work in 14 season, and you can easily find their advertising comments in Elwin Forest or Public message in the city. H*** Yeah

Okay, Korean users have enough patient to ignore this trash incident, “just in the past”.

But, today (2013-09-22) the Hall of f*** event in Korea is happened. It is not Autumn Beer Festival. That’s why a Korean guy is here in US website, and complains blah blah blah. In US and EU, we know about the problem of conquest points cap – tend to acquire more than 1800 or 2200 – and same thing happened in Korea, too. Yeah it seems global error, OK it is not the first thing. We heard that the error was fixed early without appearing conquest vendors in US and “a few” players’ gears were withdrawn in EU. I think it is very quick and reasonable reactions. But how about in Korea?

A half of players in BG and Arena wear Full Grievous Gear Sets. Yeah right, Full Grievous ( 14 Season ). We all know that the new 14 season started 4 days ago…But See these players.


<A player with Full 14 season gears (522) – even he is Malevolent gladiator>


<Another player with Full 14 season gears (Item lvl 526)>


<Can you see these equips even in Korean? I think you must know because you designed these>

More fun is here, some guy get the PvP mount (100wins in 3vs3 arena), using these situations



These are not entire examples, more players have their cap 28200 and they are keep going on buying whole 14 season gears. Is this the true purpose of Blizzard?? Players with Grievous gears appear in BG, 2vs2 and 3vs3, and then normal users have been beaten down. Their ratings are continuing go high, and we think they are frozen in 2500 or 2700, that is they become Grievous gladiator in 4 days !

We are deprived of the equality of opportunity, and Blizzard Korea is not handling anything at all. Why are normal and common users damaged by these bullsh** error???? Even we pay our money legally.



Don’t consider this incident and writings simple complaining, it can be happened in any service provided by Blizzard. (I should have known it when D3 was trash)

Plus. Reactions of Korean users in community site
(http://www.inven.co.kr/board/powerbbs.php?come_idx=2368)
+2975 articles in just one day.

-When you come to this site, you will be ready to face the funeral.
-They are going to move on US server, if there are no any changes.
- So many players who enjoyed PVP contents are already quit or going to quit this game because of this incident.
-Some request refund and argue more than half of users in Arena are wearing 5~6 Grievous gears.
-You can easily find out the Full gears players next to conquest vendors right now.

http://kr.battle.net/wow/ko/forum/topic/2713761385

Holinka

even said a comment about it

https://twitter.com/holinka/status/381652823647068160

Totally understand the complaints about how this PvP season has begun. We are working hard to correct the problem properly.

Stuff like that might be a reason why wow korea is hurting

[Pann]

Stuff like that might be a reason why wow korea is hurting

Could be part of the problem but the decline in the Guildox data goes back several weeks and pre-dates 5.4 and the start of the latest PVP season. An interesting point in the post you linked says that players are moving to US servers I wonder if it has got to the point where Korean servers are so empty that players have decided to move to more populated US realms thus accelerating the decline in the Korean WOW population and if so I am not sure if it is an issue that Blizzard will be too concerned about.

[Deleted]

Q3: 300k lost - low because of 5.4
Q4: 300-500k lost - Blizzcon and pre expansion hype keep it low
Burning Legion expansion: 2M+ gained and going stable for a while
no BL expansion: <1M gained and quickly losing subs