3rd Quarter Sub Loss Predictions!

[xanzul]

No it doesn't because you have no idea why people left wow. Someone could have left because they felt Mages were too OP QQ, and at the same time a mage left because Rogues were too strong QQ. Maybe one person left because LFR is too accessible but a LFR player just left because SoO lfr wipes too many times.

and some people might have left just because they were simply bored of the game or real life issues.

There are at least as many reasons why people quit as there are people who quit. Basically what the haters can never accept is that different people like different things and that their pet issues are not the issues of others.

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And all these people suddenly had all these things happen with the start of cata? Look, I don't want to argue mate but Blizz has been doing bare minimum and making the most illogical decisions for the past couple of years. If a developer does everything wrong and still keeps growing, it is terrible for the gaming industry.

I hope for massive sub loss and for the next expansion itself to be a dud so that developers remember that just because they are at top now, doesn't mean they can slack off, produce shit content and treat their customers with contempt and disrespect.

Are you seriously saying everyone quit for the same reasons? You do realize during Cata there were simultaneous threads claiming the game was both too hard and too easy right? You have to realize Blizzard is catering to a diverse audience and not everyone is going to be happy with everything nor does it mean any aspect of the game is objectively bad. Again different people like different things but again like I said people like you tend to be butthurt if anyone dares not share your opinion of the game.

[Mawnix]

I voted for 500k-1million sub loss because I don't see Flex providing enough incentive to gain players back.

And Blizzard's response will be more scenarios, more LFR, more welfare rewards, more Timeless Isle-style garbage, more hand-holding, more pet battles and more of what ruined WoW for so many loyal WoW players. People need to realize this game isn't what it used to be and the devs have been very clear that they're striving for a totally different audience than what built their MMO up to 11-12 million people during mid-WotLK. I suppose it's up to us now if we want to continue being taken for granted while the game goes in a direction more suited to the Call of Duty community.

I'm a loyal WoW player and I don't feel betrayed.

Derp.

[Puupi]

Blizzard has actually sent me a free 7 day subscription a week ago. I have been inactive for about 6 months. I bet they did this to other inactives aswell.... a way to clean up the numbers right before November?

[xanzul]

I think 5.4 is going to really fudge the numbers so they don't seem as extreme as they really are. I expect Q3 numbers to be down about 700,000, or 7 Million subs total left.

I think that real number though, after 5.4 is done for a bunch of people since they've resubbed and are, for all intents and purposes, finished with 5.4 is closer to 6.5 million.

I expect a continued decline through Q4, which doesn't have a new expansion release to prop sales up like past years. In all honesty, I expect the next expansion to launch with around 5.5 million to 6.5 million subs tops.

How on earth does new content for an mmo "fudge" the numbers? I love it. Blizzard does a promotion: they fudged the numbers. Blizzard puts something on sale: they fudged the numbers. And now they can't even release new content without being accused of the same thing. Give me a fucking break. All that matters to shareholders is that Blizzard is able to keep its products sustainable and profitable and they don't give a fuck about the internal politics of this community. Look I get it. You people hate that Wow is still going and Blizzard hasn't fallen to its knees in financial ruin but heres the thing: as long as there are more than 500k subscribers Wow isn't going anywhere. Get over it.

[Mawnix]

Blizzard has actually sent me a free 7 day subscription a week ago. I have been inactive for about 6 months. I bet they did this to other inactives aswell.... a way to clean up the numbers right before November?

Nah. They've been doing that for a while I think.

I might be wrong of course but I remember seeing threads from months back of people getting these offers.

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How on earth does new content for an mmo "fudge" the numbers? I love it. Blizzard does a promotion: they fudged the numbers. Blizzard puts something on sale: they fudged the numbers. And now they can't even release new content without being accused of the same thing. Give me a fucking break. All that matters to shareholders is that Blizzard is able to keep its products sustainable and profitable and they don't give a fuck about the internal politics of this community. Look I get it. You people hate that Wow is still going and Blizzard hasn't fallen to its knees in financial ruin but heres the thing: as long as there are more than 500k subscribers Wow isn't going anywhere. Get over it.

Tbh, I don't personally give a fuck about sub numbers, but I'll never actually understand why everyone acts like Blizzard is either a villain or a hero (specifically villain in this case).

Jesus. They're a company, not the freaking Empire from Star Wars. They're run by human beings. Stop acting like they're deities that if they do a single thing you don't like you have to be up their ass about everything from then on.

Everyone's welcome to their own opinions/criticisms, but be logical for Christ's sake.

[JenkinsFoley]

The active sub count I'll predict will be down between 400,000 to around 700,000. It will be far greater in Q4 however where the true "panic button" will start getting slammed.

Remember, a lower drop doesn't indicate 'stability', unless the number is going up it is an alarm. Think of your bank account, if every month your savings account kept dropping, but it occasionally didn't change at all, is that worth being excited about?

[Pann]

Blizzard has actually sent me a free 7 day subscription a week ago. I have been inactive for about 6 months. I bet they did this to other inactives aswell.... a way to clean up the numbers right before November?

Q3 ended over a month ago and you need to purchase a subscription to be counted as a sub so this offer will make no difference to Q3 numbers although it might encourage players to resubscribe for Q4.

[xanzul]

The developers tend to exacerbate this in a number of ways.

Absolutely not. All the developers do is try to provide content for a multitude of play styles. it is the players who divide the community. I know this is a difficult concept for you people to grasp but Blizzard has always taken a hands off approach with the Wow community. It is for us to build up or tear it down and it is a cop out to try to blame a bad community on anything but the very people who are behaving badly.

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That's because game developers think that they can shoe horn everyone into a on-size-fits-all MMO and not understanding why they fail. Greed is king in the genre now days and quality suffers from it.

What on earth are you talking about? For one thing what does greed have to do with this? Blizzard is a company that exists to make a profit. That isn't greed. Grow up. As far as trying to shoehorn people, just no. It is mind boggling that you can make a claim like that literally weeks after Blizzard adds a 4th raid difficulty. The quality of Wow is fine. It is the quality of players who are the problem. People like you do nothing but whine incessantly about Wow and refuse to let the game go and move on and would rather infect this community with as much negativity and vitriol as possible.

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I'm usually completely wrong on guessing sub gains/losses, but I voted "Other" because I'm predicting a mild gain.

It's my guess/opinion that a lot of the losses MoP has been seeing post-launch were actually delayed reactions to the awfulness that was Cataclysm. Blizz did everything they could to pad sub numbers during Cata, and I think it took a long time for the all the people for whom Cata killed the game, or maybe for whom MoP just wasn't quite enough (for whatever reason) to drop out. But that should have all shaken out of the system by now, and MoP is presumably losing or keeping subs solely on its own merits. 5.4 has clearly been popular, so I'm going to predict a slight gain in subs.

Paying accounts are paying accounts regardless of who they are, where they live, how many accounts they have, why they play, how often they play or if they even log in at all. There is no padding going on here. Again shareholders don't give a fuck about the politics of this community.

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I don't think it really has anything to do with them being happy about the actual sub loss or wanting Blizzard to fail.

I think it's more about a joy and hilarity that is gained from watching a certain group of rabid Blizzard defenders (that defend blizzard no matter what) scramble to make a new defense as to why Blizzard is not failing or this is not the downfall of Blizzard or insert X defense. Your response is actually one of the responses they get excited over.


Personally, I hope for a huge sub loss, because I don't think that Blizzard is trying hard enough. They produce far too little content for charging $15 bucks a month. The original reason they charged this much was a claim of server costs + adding content. Server costs are extremely low now so that excuse doesn't fly. They rarely put out content, as they spend most of their money developing expansions and other games. To me this is a rip off to the consumer and I hope it hits Blizzard where it hurts most, right in the wallet.

I mean consider just a moment the over $50 million dollars they are bringing in off subs each month. Most blockbuster games don't cost $50 million to produce. So EVERY single month, they are bringing in more than most companies use to produce an entire blockbuster game. And how much content do we get from this? Timeless isle? Awesome job.

Blizzard defenders? Give it a fucking rest. Of course fans of a game are going to defend the state of the game when it is in a state they like. They have every right to defend design decisions that make the game enjoyable for them. This is a fansite. Calling people "defenders" or fanboys is childish and ignorant and does nothing but make it that much harder for people with legitimate complaints about the game to be heard.

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I could honestly see it being the biggest loss yet purely because the time between 5.2 and 5.4 was pretty much "come back, get korkron gear!" for people who unsubbed but those still subbed at the time had no reason to play if they were casual players and i imagine the drought of content pushed a lot away before 5.4 hit.

If it had been 6 months of 5.3 then you might have had a point. By the time that patch released Tot was only around 3 months old. Prior to Mop we weren't getting patches every 3 months. In fact much of 5.2 content was still fresh for many players at that point. If you logged in just to do a weekly and logged out for another week that was your problem. Many other people had no problem finding other things to do.

[ebah]

I think Q4 will be + -0

[xanzul]

I like wow but I'm predicting a sub drop.

And I'm hoping the trend continues. Innovation via actual competition for the top spot needs to be reintroduced.

1. Blizzard flat out said they expect subscription losses to continue so there isn't much to predict here.
2. Blizzard isn't known for innovation, they are known for improving on others innovations. It is the other developers who need to step it up, not Blizzard.

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By their own admission mists or any expansion cannot be revolutionary. Mists has been regressive at best, the "content" is basically the same shit but it takes twice as long to do. The "content" is really just raids. On the other hand I could list PLENTY of things to do in cataclysm but nobody did them without any gear apparently and subsequently that wasn't considered content. Standards seem to change depending on the flavor of the expansion I guess.

So Blizzard added nothing new to Mop? Nothing like pet battles and scenarios (and I don't care if you hate them that doesn't make that content cease to exist)? Maybe your problem is you don't seem to understand there is more to the game than just raiding.

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Well based on how subs have been trending I think it is squarely in the 500,000 - 1 million range. If it flattens off a bit it will end up closer to 500,000 if it continues full speed closer to 1 million.

Even though I am not currently playing anymore I hope it starts to level off soon. If it continues as is we are start getting out of encouraging competition area and into the unable to continue to provide content at the same pace area. If it starts to decelerate now maybe things will completely level off at around 4 million subs a couple years from now.

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I think they have been playing a bit of trial and error since the big sub crash of Cataclysm. LFR only seemed to postpone things for a short time and then the rapid decline in subs has continued on as usual. Hopefully they find the right formula soon.

There is no "right formula" to prevent subscription loss in an aging mmo. Name one single mmo who has managed to perpetually increase subscriptions despite age. I won't hold my breath.

[Zephre]

500k-1m is the most realistic thing to expect. If i recall correctly the devil incarnate bobby kotick said he'd devour your cats and sell your family members as slaves. On a more serious note they fully expect themselves to lose more subscribers so i can't see it being any different.

[Seefer]

I voted for 500k-1million sub loss because I don't see Flex providing enough incentive to gain players back.

And Blizzard's response will be more scenarios, more LFR, more welfare rewards, more Timeless Isle-style garbage, more hand-holding, more pet battles and more of what ruined WoW for so many loyal WoW players. People need to realize this game isn't what it used to be and the devs have been very clear that they're striving for a totally different audience than what built their MMO up to 11-12 million people during mid-WotLK. I suppose it's up to us now if we want to continue being taken for granted while the game goes in a direction more suited to the Call of Duty community.

I agree with this post.

[xanzul]

Thinking that the sub loss of Q3 will be more extreme than most people think it will be. I won't be surprised if it's more than a million, why?
- Many people are annoyed by the fact that you can either play on a dead realm or on a realm with a 1+ hour login queue.
- Many people are annoyed by the fact that virtual realms are rolling out so terribly slow.
- ToT was a disappointment for a lot of people after all the hype.
- SoO was an even bigger disappointment, another raid with 60% refurbished scenery and uninspiring trash / old boss mechanics.
- some good games game out in Q3 that will have pulled people away from playing wow.

I think it's all for the better though, Blizzard needs this wake-up call. Slowly losing their monopoly might mean they start innovating and making awesome content like in the old times again instead of endlessly milking their customers with 5-minute-made storemounts and refurbished content (scenery etc).

Can you people please give the whining over dead realms a rest now? Blizzard has significantly increased the pace of deploying connected realms and once those realms are in a better situation population wise, more people will be more willing to take the free character migrations off of high pop realms with long queue times. Blizzard isn't ignoring the issue but it isn't something that can be solved instantly with the flick of a switch. As far as everything else goes, pure opinion. The last two raids may be a disappointment to you but they have been very well received by many others. In fact I have seen people who have been scathingly critical of raiding in Wow over the past few years do nothing but gush over how these last two tiers turned out. If you think Blizzard is "milking" you, stop giving them money. Problem solved.

[vep]

I say six hundred billion subscriptions lost....

[Pann]

2. Blizzard isn't known for innovation, they are known for improving on others innovations. It is the other developers who need to step it up, not Blizzard.

Right?? So lemme get this straight? Blizzard should not step it up to save their game but other developers should so they can copy them in order to save their game? That is possibly the most ridiculous thing I have ever read on these forums.

[Snorkles]

In the UK a Ltd company releases it's end of year accounts; things like operating profit, dividends, revenue, cost of sale sort of stuff. Does the same apply in the US? I'm not sure what the equivalent is in the US? LLC?

[wowhasnothrone]

6,000 per day from 6/30/13 to 9/30/13 is over 500,000 subs, which has been the average since cata went live

5.4 is going to artificially buffer whatever the number ends up being, but 4th quarter is going to be rough, we'll possibly see over 1,000,000 lost subs

[PrairieChicken]

I expect this quarter to be not too bad (below 300000 loss), but next quarter will be disaster thanks to everyone quitting after killing garrosh in LFR

[Pann]

In the UK a Ltd company releases it's end of year accounts; things like operating profit, dividends, revenue, cost of sale sort of stuff. Does the same apply in the US? I'm not sure what the equivalent is in the US? LLC?

All companies will compile these reports on a monthly basis a private owned company is under no obligation to release these figures to the public, although in the UK they must file a yearly report with Companies House. Blizzard as a company that has shareholders is obligated to release this information to its shareholders and does so on a quarterly basis.

[Seefer]

Right?? So lemme get this straight? Blizzard should not step it up to save their game but other developers should so they can copy them in order to save their game? That is possibly the most ridiculous thing I have ever read on these forums.

Well, to be honest, Xanzul is correct in the fact that Blizzard has never been innovative and just copies/polishes other game companies ideas for WoW not to mention people who make addons ideas as well.