3rd Quarter Sub Loss Predictions!

[wowhasnothrone]

Well, to be honest, Xanzul is correct in the fact that Blizzard has never been innovative and just copies/polishes other game companies ideas for WoW not to mention people who make addons ideas as well.

as of cata around 200 addons had been implemented into wow. hell even autolooting was an addon first

[Pann]

Well, to be honest, Xanzul is correct in the fact that Blizzard has never been innovative and just copies/polishes other game companies ideas for WoW not to mention people who make addons ideas as well.

I have no issue with that but c'mon saying it is the responsibility of other games' developers to step it up in order to make up for Blizzard's lack of innovation is, well... words fail me!?

[Seefer]

I have no issue with that but c'mon saying it is the responsibility of other games' developers to step it up in order to make up for Blizzard's lack of innovation is, well... words fail me!?

Oh I agree, I am just saying he was right on at least part of it lol

[Iseeyou]

Hmm i think i've changed my mind. We wont see a massive drop imo this quarter. Something like -150k max. 5.4 brings back people with lootlisland and connected realms.


BUT

The next gen console are coming (wildstar and teso ll hit badly too cuz they have subs = same market), and we wont see an xpac before 6month and everybody looks bored already. I think wow is gonna lose something like a solid Milion before next xpac hits, maybe 2.

Only way to prevent this is to announce something REALLY BIG at Blizzcon.

[Osmeric]

Oh I agree, I am just saying he was right on at least part of it lol

Still, it's funny.

Developer: Sorry boss, I can't add new features to save the product, because our competitors haven't done anything for me to copy.

Boss: Oh that's too bad. But in better news, you're fired!

[Seefer]

Still, it's funny.

Developer: Sorry boss, I can't add new features to save the product, because our competitors haven't done anything for me to copy.

Boss: Oh that's too bad. But in better news, you're fired!

Although with the influx of new games there are lots of features to steal, I mean add, like I love fates in FF 14.

[Jtbrig7390]

Although with the influx of new games there are lots of features to steal, I mean add, like I love fates in FF 14.

Butttttt isn't fates like DE's in GW2 :P

Just messing with ya is all

[Pann]

Although with the influx of new games there are lots of features to steal, I mean add, like I love fates in FF 14.

In which case that is even worse, the competition has stepped up their game yet Blizzard has failed to copy them.

[ShimmerSwirl]

5.4 will artificially boost Q3. Q4 is gonna have massive losses.

[PrairieChicken]

Wednesday, November 6, 2013
1:30 p.m. Pacific Time, 4:30 p.m. Eastern Time, 21:30 UTC

Just for reminder

[liam78]

Yeah, to the ground baby!

Pandas are gonna be the biggest loser out of all expaks.

Rofl

[Glorious Leader]

5.4 will artificially boost Q3. Q4 is gonna have massive losses.

Debatable. I realize this is anecdotal but I know of no one who said gee let me resubscribe for a new raid I don't give a fuck about.

[Tastyfish]

I think it might be 5 to 10 trillion in sub loss.
Feels just as accurate as any other predictions.

- - - Updated - - -

Debatable. I realize this is anecdotal but I know of no one who said gee let me resubscribe for a new raid I don't give a fuck about.

I'm resubbing to load in the hearthstone beta mount....

[Pebrocks The Warlock]

Debatable. I realize this is anecdotal but I know of no one who said gee let me resubscribe for a new raid I don't give a fuck about.

I've seen quite a good number of posts on here and the battle.net forums of people who resubbed just to raid SoO, or at least experience it.
And you're implying they don't give a fuck about SoO or whatever raid at current.

[Glorious Leader]

I've seen quite a good number of posts on here and the battle.net forums of people who resubbed just to raid SoO, or at least experience it.
And you're implying they don't give a fuck about SoO or whatever raid at current.

Christ I could swore I said it was anecdotal. But yes you have one piece of anecdotal evidence and so do I. By the laws of immutable transmutation we're tied.

[Pebrocks The Warlock]

Christ I could swore I said it was anecdotal. But yes you have one piece of anecdotal evidence and so do I. By the laws of immutable transmutation we're tied.

Well if we're tied on anecdotal evidence then there must be some kind of tie breaker, correct?

[Glorious Leader]

Well if we're tied on anecdotal evidence then there must be some kind of tie breaker, correct?

Yes when the subs come out and their disastrously low to the point of being comical you will have lost. Actually even then you won't give a fuck because you'll use the stupid forum trick of oh i don't care about subs I have fun anyway.

[Toiran]

I don't expect to see any real loss other than the usual month to month, seasonal and patch variations.

People think WoW is crashing to the ground at full speed, no, not it really isn't, it's just not as popular as it used to be.

WoW is an anomaly, no other mmo came close, and no other ever will, including Blizzards own work, MMO's just aren't THAT popular any more, it's a shifted industry, deal with it, or continue shouting about how it's crashing to the ground and MoP is childish and the worst expansion ever whilst you log in every day and continue to pay that sub.

WoW will not continue to decline month on month for the next five years, the game would literally have to be broken, instead it will either settle as it is now, 6.5 to 7.5 million and jump at the next expac, then go down again to 6.5 to 7.5, or go further down to 3/4/5 million and settle there for years.

/drama

[Azrile]

I don't expect to see any real loss other than the usual month to month, seasonal and patch variations.

People think WoW is crashing to the ground at full speed, no, not it really isn't, it's just not as popular as it used to be.

WoW is an anomaly, no other mmo came close, and no other ever will, including Blizzards own work, MMO's just aren't THAT popular any more, it's a shifted industry, deal with it, or continue shouting about how it's crashing to the ground and MoP is childish and the worst expansion ever whilst you log in every day and continue to pay that sub.

WoW will not continue to decline month on month for the next five years, the game would literally have to be broken, instead it will either settle as it is now, 6.5 to 7.5 million and jump at the next expac, then go down again to 6.5 to 7.5, or go further down to 3/4/5 million and settle there for years.

/drama

Exactly. Look at the original post. You notice that 1M gain in 3Q? and that followed by a big drop? You know what happened there? A huge F2P game was released in China. People make it out like the game is losing subs because of micro-changes the devs make. No, the game lost a huge chunk of it´s cheap china players who switched to a f2p game marketed in their cyber cafes. Revenues never dropped anywhere near as much as subs did, which proves it was not $15 per month subscribers who left.

While there never was a wow killer in the west, there was in China, and it laucnhed last December. I still expect WOW to gradually lose subscribers, but nothing like 1M per quarter like happened in 4Q and 1Q

[jbombard]

I don't expect to see any real loss other than the usual month to month, seasonal and patch variations.

People think WoW is crashing to the ground at full speed, no, not it really isn't, it's just not as popular as it used to be.

WoW is an anomaly, no other mmo came close, and no other ever will, including Blizzards own work, MMO's just aren't THAT popular any more, it's a shifted industry, deal with it, or continue shouting about how it's crashing to the ground and MoP is childish and the worst expansion ever whilst you log in every day and continue to pay that sub.

WoW will not continue to decline month on month for the next five years, the game would literally have to be broken, instead it will either settle as it is now, 6.5 to 7.5 million and jump at the next expac, then go down again to 6.5 to 7.5, or go further down to 3/4/5 million and settle there for years.

/drama

If you look at how these things usually trend, you will not generally see things flatten out after a nose dive in one period. They decrease would usually gradually taper off. Also outside of surges from a new expack the rate of decline is about 500k per quarter. We probably still have about a year until the next expack comes out so I think we will likely hit 5 million by then. What will be telling is after the initial surge back up to maybe 6 million, how fast things start dropping again. If the next expack flops it will likely be devastating to the game. Still no matter how bad it gets I am sure they will flatten out above 2 million subs, if next expack is a smash hit maybe as high as 4 million.

- - - Updated - - -

Exactly. Look at the original post. You notice that 1M gain in 3Q? and that followed by a big drop? You know what happened there? A huge F2P game was released in China. People make it out like the game is losing subs because of micro-changes the devs make. No, the game lost a huge chunk of it´s cheap china players who switched to a f2p game marketed in their cyber cafes. Revenues never dropped anywhere near as much as subs did, which proves it was not $15 per month subscribers who left.

While there never was a wow killer in the west, there was in China, and it laucnhed last December. I still expect WOW to gradually lose subscribers, but nothing like 1M per quarter like happened in 4Q and 1Q

WoWEast only had 1 million more subs than WoWWest back in 2010. If everytime we lose subs it has been Asian subs like people always say, how many subs do you think they have left there? 3 million?(that wouldn't be that big of a loss comparatively) Next time we lose another 2 millions subs I bet it will be all Asia again and the timer after that too even though we would have negative sub numbers for Asia at that point.