Thread: Ukraine

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  1. #381
    Quote Originally Posted by Bakis View Post
    dreaming of the Grand Russia a la CCCP
    It wasn't always like that. Back in 2000 there was genuine desire from their side to move closer to Europe. Putin got elected by promising EU integration. Back then, however, the old EU decided to treat Russia like all the other former communist countries. The "European Neighbourhood policy" was the same for countries like Marocco and Russia and that pissed them off.

    If they were treated as equal back when they were at the bottom they wouldn't have rejected the EU altogether and start their own customs union when they got Oil and Gas money.

  2. #382
    Deleted
    Quote Originally Posted by Cybran View Post
    You know that Sweden has been spying on Russia for the NSA for years maybe even decades, so of course they are going to treat you like an enemy state when you work for their enemy. Of course they will simulate dropping nukes on your capitol since they know that you would be the first to jump in to help USA.
    Yes, we'd be so useful with our three tanks and five guys with guns and plants on their head.

    Russia has always been hostile towards Sweden since the beginning of the cold war, that's why we spy on them. I don't agree with sending our info to the USA, that does indeed violate our neutrality policy but Sweden has been on the defensive ever since the 18th century, so it makes no sense that we would be hostile towards Russia for the sake of being hostile. Russia could crush us like a fly.

  3. #383
    Deleted
    Quote Originally Posted by Trollskaldinn View Post
    Russia has always been hostile towards Sweden since the beginning of the cold war, that's why we spy on them..
    More like since beginning of 12th century. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Swedish_Wars but Russia is not just an arch enemy of Sweden, it's arch enemy of many other nations. Still cant believe that Danish king and other idiot kings formed alliance against Carl XII of Sweden and allowed Russia to win in great northern war. The war was 300 years ago, but it still today has effect, because it was that particular war where russian sphere of influence was massively moved towards west.

  4. #384
    Deleted
    Quote Originally Posted by Malenurse View Post
    More like since beginning of 12th century. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Swedish_Wars but Russia is not just an arch enemy of Sweden, it's arch enemy of many other nations. Still cant believe that Danish king and other idiot kings formed alliance against Carl XII of Sweden and allowed Russia to win in great northern war. The war was 300 years ago, but it still today has effect, because it was that particular war where russian sphere of influence was massively moved towards west.
    Well, to put it more clearly, Russia has always been hostile towards Sweden in modern day ever since the cold war. After the Swedish loss of Finland in 1809 Russia wasn't actively threatening Sweden, Sweden as a military power had been neutralized. Sweden started being something to worry about after the mid-40s when Sweden really started to fix it's military and by the 60s Sweden has one of the largest air forces in the world. So it's not until fairly recent times that the relations between Russia and Sweden has become hostile again after a ~150-year truce. Today the hostile relations are mostly due to Putin still hanging on to Soviet ideals. Honestly, I think relations will be better the moment Putin is poof and is replaced by a younger generation that didn't grow up with a crazy vision of a new Soviet Union.

    As for Denmark in the Great Northern War, they wanted to win back the Scanian provinces that Sweden had conquered ~60 years before but since Denmark had lost it's role as the dominant northern European power to Sweden after the constant losses against Sweden in the 17th century it had to ally Russia that didn't impose as big threat to Denmark's existance as Sweden was. Sweden wasn't just beating around you know, they were aiming for having all of the Baltic sea as well as Norway under Swedish control, and that meant they had to wipe out Denmark completely off the maps, so there was a good reason for Denmark to ally Russia.
    Last edited by mmoc96b28150b7; 2014-02-09 at 02:42 PM.

  5. #385
    Deleted
    Quote Originally Posted by Trollskaldinn View Post
    Sweden wasn't just beating around you know, they were aiming for having all of the Baltic sea as well as Norway under Swedish control, and that meant they had to wipe out Denmark completely off the maps, so there was a good reason for Denmark to ally Russia.
    Yes, but I think they still were stupid to allow Russia to grow so big. The bear should've been put in chains when they still had the chance.

  6. #386
    Deleted
    Quote Originally Posted by Malenurse View Post
    Yes, but I think they still were stupid to allow Russia to grow so big. The bear should've been put in chains when they still had the chance.
    Denmark didn't have much of a choice. Who would've assisted them? Both Great Britain and the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth was allied to Sweden, so the only ally in the vicinity was Russia, and both Denmark and Russia had the same interest in weakening Sweden. And no way Denmark could handle Sweden alone, let alone Sweden + GB + Poland-Lithuania.

  7. #387
    Deleted
    Quote Originally Posted by Trollskaldinn View Post
    Denmark didn't have much of a choice. Who would've assisted them? Both Great Britain and the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth was allied to Sweden, so the only ally in the vicinity was Russia, and both Denmark and Russia had the same interest in weakening Sweden. And no way Denmark could handle Sweden alone, let alone Sweden + GB + Poland-Lithuania.
    Actually the situation was that UK, Poland, Denmark and Russia formed alliance against Sweden. Also Saxony and Prussia went against Sweden in some occasions. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Landing...%C3%9F_Stresow

  8. #388
    I love theory crafting

    Currently Playing: Eldevin

  9. #389
    Deleted
    Quote Originally Posted by Malenurse View Post
    Actually the situation was that UK, Poland, Denmark and Russia formed alliance against Sweden. Also Saxony and Prussia went against Sweden in some occasions. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Landing...%C3%9F_Stresow
    No, GB and Poland were allied with Sweden, with Poland fluctuating back and forth between Sweden and Russia.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Northern_War

  10. #390
    Deleted
    Quote Originally Posted by Trollskaldinn View Post
    No, GB and Poland were allied with Sweden, with Poland fluctuating back and forth between Sweden and Russia.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Northern_War
    After disastrous Battle of Poltava they more or less all allied against Sweden. So the decisive end of it Saxony, Poland, Denmark, Hanover, Prussia and Russia were all allied against Sweden. The UK contribution as swedish ally lasted merely 2 years, while the war itself last 21 years. The UK alliance didnt mean a shit, because the alliance with UK was from 1719-1721 and the war had practically already ended. Even Finland was occupied as whole already in 1714.
    Last edited by mmoc8eb592856e; 2014-02-10 at 01:11 AM.

  11. #391
    Quote Originally Posted by Cybran View Post
    Putin got elected by promising EU integration.
    Haha, funniest thing I read in a while.

  12. #392
    Quote Originally Posted by Leobald View Post
    Haha, funniest thing I read in a while.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sponsored...relations.html

    “Putin-1” (of the first term, 2000-2004) with his strongly pro-western agenda: from close co-operation and prospects for European integration to concessions to the United States (the closure of military bases in Cuba and Vietnam, position on Central Asia, and so on) and advances to Tokyo on settling the Kuril Islands dispute.
    The result, however, was disappointing. Who should be held responsible for those failures is a question open to debate. In retrospect, one can hardly blame Vladimir Putin for not trying to bring Russia into the western orbit during his first term. The lack of the desired result helped rebrand Putin-2 as the author of the anti-American speech in Munich.
    During his first term Putin seemed willing to cooperate with Europe and the US.

    The foreign policy message of Putin’s second term was: “So you don’t want to treat us like equals? Then I’ll make you…” And he did.
    Europe and the US pushed Russia away and they have themselves to blame. Once the price of oil went up Russia didn't need them any more.

  13. #393
    What i seem to see here is mainly a focus on the demonstrators and nothing on the issues at stake. How is it
    possible to form an opinion of who are the 'good' guys without a discussion of the issues. My understanding is
    that this whole disruption is based on US interest to divide Russia and to move NATO forces closer to that country.
    Several million dollars from the US and US interests have sparked this alleged uprising. I have no doubt that many
    participants are sincere in their protests but how they see the issues will be as affected by the media and the
    the propaganda supported by the behind the scenes Western money. From where I sit, the govt was democratically
    elected. One side won, the other did not. Next election, the political sides will once again argue their issues and vote.
    Well maybe not with the new neo-Nazi regime taking over.

  14. #394
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    So how many of those violent protesters/rioters are out there? Less than half of a percent of the entire Ukrainian population. That's right. And I'm pretty sure that a lot of those thugs don't even know what they are actually fighting for.

    I support neither sides. But go ahead rioters, keep throwing stones and fire bombs at the police. I'm sure you'll achieve something.
    "The sword is mightier than the pen, and considerably easier to kill with."

  15. #395
    Deleted
    Quote Originally Posted by Sainur View Post
    I support neither sides. But go ahead rioters, keep throwing stones and fire bombs at the police. I'm sure you'll achieve something.
    You don't watch a lot of news do you?

  16. #396
    Quote Originally Posted by Cybran View Post
    During his first term Putin seemed willing to cooperate with Europe and the US.
    And then the Orange Revolution happened, and Putin took it personally.


    Quote Originally Posted by Cybran View Post
    Europe and the US pushed Russia away and they have themselves to blame. Once the price of oil went up Russia didn't need them any more.
    Not really. Oilwas high briefly, then fell precipitously. The Russian budget requires a $115 per barrel price for break even. Oil has been hanging between $90 and $105 for the past year.

    http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/0...A010GA20140102

    Russia is preparing for $80 per barrel prices from 2016-2030 and is cutting its budget accordingly, due to the US becoming the world's largest oil producer in 2015. It's already it's top overall energy producer.

    http://rt.com/business/russia-budget-putin-oil-207/
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-1...-iea-says.html

    More anti-Western truthiness from self-hating Westerner Cybran. Wonders never cease.

    Russia's foreign policy shift was in response to the US/EU not respecting Russia's sphere of influence in central asia, most especially via the color revolutions. They see it as another in a long line of Western double crosses, going back to the "pledge" to not expand NATO made in the 1990s. Honestly, the're probably right. They shouldn't trust us on these issues in the slightest. That doesn't make them wrong to do though.

    It was able to operate that foreign policy due to oil prices. Now? Energy prices are expected to free fall due to America, Canada and Poland flooding the world with cheap oil and natural gas. And therein lies the problem. As I said paraphrased thrice now: look around your room. Name three things in it sourced from Europe (you can probably do Germany alone on that), three things sourced from China, three things sourced from Japan, and three things sourced from the United States. Now do the same for Russia. Good luck.

    And therein lies the problem, and why Russia is facing a recession.
    http://rt.com/business/russia-ruble-...recession-871/
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-0...ecession-.html
    http://www.worldreview.info/content/...eads-recession

    And who is to blame for this? I'll quote the last article.

    The Moscow-based Renaissance Capital brokerage has speculated that the Russian economy may not be able to grow faster than two per cent per year over the coming decade, and that as national debt piles up Russia might become another Greece.

    Mr Putin has now acknowledged that cuts in the budget will be necessary. The figures being discussed are 1.6 trillion rubles, or about five per cent of total expenditure from 2013 to 2016.

    The irony is that it is Mr Putin himself who shifted the country towards its dependence on the price of oil.
    And that is why, Russia is screwed.

  17. #397
    Quote Originally Posted by Skroesec View Post
    Not really. Oilwas high briefly, then fell precipitously. The Russian budget requires a $115 per barrel price for break even. Oil has been hanging between $90 and $105 for the past year.
    We can run deficit for quite a while though... we got virtually no debt, extremely positive trade balance (west just doesn't sell us enough things to use all our oil profits... like that Opel buyout that fell through ), and if we would decide to issue more bonds i'm sure we'd find buyers.

    It's just that our current government is debt-averse... and for good reasons. They are still waiting for next wave of economic crisis to hit us.

    Russia is preparing for $80 per barrel prices from 2016-2030 and is cutting its budget accordingly, due to the US becoming the world's largest oil producer in 2015. It's already it's top overall energy producer.
    Well, we prepared for that before too, right after crisis... but oil foiled our plans and remained high that year after dropping early... and next year too. It's still high to this day

    We got our propaganda machines working on discrediting oil/gas boom too to keep oil high! You know, environmental impact, extremely fast well depletion compared to traditional deposits, logistical problems, EROI (and ROI too) that only allows them to be profitable with government subsidies...

    And in case it all fails, we got shale deposits of our own, as well as tech to use them! In places where no people live, so environmental impact wouldn't be that noticeable too! ...we just have enough better deposits to last us decades before we start tapping them.

    And who is to blame for this? I'll quote the last article.
    If you'd ask Russians many would blame WTO membership! Also Putin's fault though!

  18. #398
    Quote Originally Posted by Skroesec View Post
    Energy prices are expected to free fall due to America, Canada and Poland flooding the world with cheap oil and natural gas.
    http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/15/bu...ions.html?_r=0

    Eni has allowed two of its three shale gas exploration licenses in Poland to expire and is likely to allow the third to lapse, according to a person with knowledge of the matter who spoke only on the condition of anonymity. The acreage, acquired in 2010, had not produced enough gas to be commercially viable, the person said.

    Other companies have made similar comments about their initial drilling efforts. Exxon Mobil ended its Polish shale gas exploration efforts in 2012; Marathon Oil said it was leaving last year. Chevron is one of the few major players still interested in Poland.

    “The geology has not worked out,” said Paul Stevens, an oil analyst at Chatham House, a research institute based in London.
    The US is free to poison it's land with fracking chemicals, but Poland dodged a bullet. Europe and China will need Russian gas in the foreseeable future. The question is what will the US do when the Yuan and Euro take over the role of reserve currency?

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