Q1 - 2014 Sub Predictions & Discussion Thread

[Vash The Stampede]

That's why they are giving a free character boost with WoD. Yes, they still have to level trough the last 10 levels, but at least it's new and relevant content.

But WoD will cost $10 more. On top of it, new players will still have to pay an obnoxious amount to even get to WoD content. By WoD all previous expansions should be free to new players, and cost no monthly fee. Only WoD with it's $50 price tag, and even still the monthly fee should be reduced.

[Noctifer616]

But WoD will cost $10 more. On top of it, new players will still have to pay an obnoxious amount to even get to WoD content. By WoD all previous expansions should be free to new players, and cost no monthly fee. Only WoD with it's $50 price tag, and even still the monthly fee should be reduced.

Why? I wouldn't mind it, nor other people, but what reason should Blizzard have for doing that? The current model is working great for them. I don't see a them making changes anytime soon.

[-Superman-]

To think they don't know exactly any risk they are taking is just crazy. A company like blizzard does not just do things on a whim. Their actions are studied and planned in great depth and usually they will have at least a good idea of what is going to happen.

I only question it because a Billion dollar company is unsure about what the state of the game will be in 6.1, but continues to make decisions about 6.0 which will affect it. Positive or negative, if Blizz is as smart as you say they are, that means they already know what they are doing in 6.1, and they are just with-holding that information to avoid some early backlash. It will be easier to break the bad news after it is too late to change their path.

As it pertains to subs, WoW may still have 7.6M, but how many Million inactive subs are there? In 10 years, taking a wild stab, I would guess there have been at least 50M accounts created. So, all in all, WoW has really lost more like 42.4M players in 10 years... not just 2.4M in one expansion.

So, what does it say about a company who potentially even only ever had 25M unique accounts (chopping it in half to be generous), and in 10 years has only retained 1/3 of their players? (Realistically more like 1/6th or 1/7th)

[Noctifer616]

I only question it because a Billion dollar company is unsure about what the state of the game will be in 6.1, but continue to make decisions about 6.0 which will affect it.

WoW has always been driven by player feedback, hence why they are never 100% sure about the games feature.

So, what does it say about a company who potentially even only ever had 25M unique accounts (chopping it in half to be generous), and in 10 years has only retained 1/3 of their players? (Realistically more like 1/6th or 1/7th)

If you talk about Blizzard and not just WoW, then they have more customers today than they ever had before.

[-Superman-]

WoW has always been driven by player feedback, hence why they are never 100% sure about the games feature.

If you talk about Blizzard and not just WoW, then they have more customers today than they ever had before.

What are you going on about? You didn't really address either question. You simply glazed over it like a candidate for President. So, give an honest answer to each.

If Blizz has everything mapped out, what are they not telling us, and why? And, not talking about all of Blizz, just WoW (which should have been made obvious when speaking about subscribers for the past 20 pages), what have they done WRONG that would cause 42M+ people to not want to play anymore?

[cabyio]

I only question it because a Billion dollar company is unsure about what the state of the game will be in 6.1, but continues to make decisions about 6.0 which will affect it. Positive or negative, if Blizz is as smart as you say they are, that means they already know what they are doing in 6.1, and they are just with-holding that information to avoid some early backlash. It will be easier to break the bad news after it is too late to change their path.

As it pertains to subs, WoW may still have 7.6M, but how many Million inactive subs are there? In 10 years, taking a wild stab, I would guess there have been at least 50M accounts created. So, all in all, WoW has really lost more like 42.4M players in 10 years... not just 2.4M in one expansion.

So, what does it say about a company who potentially even only ever had 25M unique accounts (chopping it in half to be generous), and in 10 years has only retained 1/3 of their players? (Realistically more like 1/6th or 1/7th)

I think they have a good idea of what will happen in 6.1 and just choose to not share it in case it changes or they change their mind on something. Being too transparent can cause a company issues.

As for sub turnover, I think the vast majority of it is not people disliking the game and quiting out of protest. It is more likely that there are not alot of people out there that will play the same game for 10+ years. They get bored and move on, not because of anything specific blizzard did, but just because they want something new.

[Noctifer616]

What are you going on about? You didn't really address either question. You simply glazed over it like a candidate for President. So, give an honest answer to each.

If Blizz has everything mapped out, what are they not telling us, and why? And, not talking about all of Blizz, just WoW (which should have been made obvious when speaking about subscribers for the past 20 pages), what have they done WRONG that would cause 42M+ people to not want to play anymore?

Nothing. Is it normal for people to play the same game for years without end? No. People get tired of something and move on.

And you can't look at WoW and ignore the rest of the market. Why would attract new players when you have to buy box and pay monthly, yet with other MMO out there you don't have to pay a cent. The market today is completely different than it was 8 years ago. How many MMO's that came out during WoW's life are still around and doing well while retaining the same monetary model?

You can't look at WoW, or any game in a bubble when the entire market plays a significant role.

[Vash The Stampede]

Why? I wouldn't mind it, nor other people, but what reason should Blizzard have for doing that? The current model is working great for them. I don't see a them making changes anytime soon.

Is it? WoD won't be out until November and more and more players will begin to leave. If you've cleared all the content, then why stick around? Keep paying a $15 monthly fee for the Blizzard good will fund? Some people who stop paying for WoW, might not come back for WoD. I know that when I kill Heroic Garrosh, I don't plan to keep paying the monthly fee. I'd probably rethink it, if the fee was $5/month.

But new players need an easier way to get into WoW, and it is getting expensive. That's why they shouldn't need to pay a monthly fee just to try out old irrelevant content. In fact the entire game should be free for older content. Come back when WoD is released and tell me how many subscribers come back.

[Azrile]

Is it? WoD won't be out until November and more and more players will begin to leave. If you've cleared all the content, then why stick around? Keep paying a $15 monthly fee for the Blizzard good will fund? Some people who stop paying for WoW, might not come back for WoD. I know that when I kill Heroic Garrosh, I don't plan to keep paying the monthly fee. I'd probably rethink it, if the fee was $5/month.

But new players need an easier way to get into WoW, and it is getting expensive. That's why they shouldn't need to pay a monthly fee just to try out old irrelevant content. In fact the entire game should be free for older content. Come back when WoD is released and tell me how many subscribers come back.

You should probably read the first post in this thread, where the OP said basically the same thing you did, expecting losses in the millions.. then he disappears from his own threads when his ´abysmal´ predictions are wrong. WOW may lost another 200k subscribers this quarter for the reasons you said, but at the same time, Beta will be starting, 6.0 will be very near and the excitement for WoD will pick up. But you guys just keep starting threads every quarter right before subs are announced, make your silly predications, then disappear when you look like a fool.. it is like the OP... every quarter for the past year he has started the same thread, and every quarter he looks like an idiot for his analysis of why ´this time I will be right´..

[draykorinee]

it is like the OP... every quarter for the past year he has started the same thread, and every quarter he looks like an idiot for his analysis of why ´this time I will be right´..

Is it really only a year, feels like he has been making these predictions forever, the most tiresome of MMO posters.

[Thimagryn]

You can't look at WoW, or any game in a bubble when the entire market plays a significant role.

This. I was planning to come back for WoD. The price hike made me think twice. It's bad enough to have to pay a sub fee, but it's worse to have to get a box set for what would eventually be included in vanilla WoW eventually anyways.

If I were to come back to WoW, it would be on a Black Friday sale when the expansion gets dropped to half price, just like MoP did 2 months after it launched.

[Deleted]

Hell knows really, but so far all they announce is very unappealing and they already got some people refunding the pre-order after backing up on most of the promises they "didn't make" to sell it. Also I refuse to believe a staunch ragequitter like me is really so unique. (That is, I actually quit shortly before Cata hit the fan and don't plan to buy WoD either after returning to the game a few months before 5.2).