Jumping to conclusions: 23rd September

[Deleted]

In all fairness, everyone always calls the previous expansion the best they've ever played, the current expansion horrible, and the next expansion the death of WoW as well.

BC: Vanilla was better, Wrath is death of WoW
Wrath: BC was better, Cata is death of WoW (Tell them only that the Lich King is dead, and that World of Warcraft died with him...)
Cata: Wrath was better, MoP is the death of WoW
MoP: Wrath was better (A few liked Cataclysm, but it's generally agreed that it was a bad expansion), WoD is the death of WoW

You always view the current situation as worse than any other situation you've ever experienced.

You admit that it's generally agreed that Cataclysm was a bad expansion, that's 1/4 of all expansions, and yet you still claim that your pattern is somehow true?

[Dremall]

Nice catch. The date seems plausible.

[Daethz]

/wishes they would just release beta on the live servers and let us play new content already

[Deleted]

/wishes they would just release beta on the live servers and let us play new content already

Why should they if they can make you to test their stuff while you already play the content and if you would replay it once it got released?

Blizzard is efficient at recycling content.

Blizzard handles their customers like alpha testers who have to pay them to develop their game.

[Darkfriend]

I really don't see the correlation here..

Maybe, but paragon kill Sha in 6 weeks.

[Zka]

I'd be glad to receive 6.0 around that date :/

[Spoonman]

I dont know, with the problems regarding instabilty and rushed Beta im more up for waiting til December than having a bad release ruining everything

[Zka]

In all fairness, everyone always calls the previous expansion the best they've ever played, the current expansion horrible, and the next expansion the death of WoW as well.

"everyone" must be some whiners in the forum.
I have been calling BC the best ever since BC, the current one... well... I try to be objective. LK seems better since it ended, Cata seems worse, MoP has been bad all the way because of the theme and I really hope WoD will be better than MoP and Cata.

[Sinndra]

"everyone" must be some whiners in the forum.
I have been calling BC the best ever since BC, the current one... well... I try to be objective. LK seems better since it ended, Cata seems worse, MoP has been bad all the way because of the theme and I really hope WoD will be better than MoP and Cata.

ehh, for every one of "you" there is one of "me". i happened to hate BC because of its theme, its zone design was appalling, and the quest designs are in sad shape too when compared to advances made in Cata and MoP. Mists was not only the best because of content and raids, but its theme was really fun and enjoyable as well. but thats how opinions go.

i do believe people look back at past expansions claiming it to be better than current and future, generally speaking of course.

[Tiberria]

I am not buying that September 23 is anything more than an unrealistic pipe dream/placeholder.

1. If you consider external Alpha+Beta as one continuous public testing cycle, the average duration of Alpha+Beta for the last 3 expansions has been 6.7 months. To release by September 23, they would need to cut that down to 3.5 months. I can buy that they will get through the testing cycle faster this time, but cutting it down by nearly half is highly unrealistic.

2. We are in week 5 of Alpha/Beta with 2 zones tested. It looks like it will be week 6 (next week) before a new zone is tested. At 3 weeks per zone, and 6 zones left to go, the leveling content testing alone is going to be another 3-4 months and September 23 is only 2.5 months away.

3. Raid testing hasn't started yet. They said that they want to have addons enabled at about the time raid testing starts, but are not near that point yet. Raid testing takes 2-3 months typically. Unless they start that in the next couple of weeks, September isn't happening.

I think it's far, far more likely that what we are seeing with them pushing to beta sooner than expected and pushing more info out faster is that they need to expedite the process to hit a November/December release cycle. November 18 looks like the most realistic date. It will put the game on shelves a week before Thanksgiving/Black Friday and just before Christmas. It's a full ~10 days after Blizzcon, it lines up within a week of the 10th anniversary, and pushing the release into December would create problems with content release time cycles, etc.

[Gray_Matter]

This date sounds entirely plausible. They have just come to the end of Q2. It's likely that there is a large drop in subs because of a number of factors (expansion pre-sales ended, no more XMAS specials, large gap in content to the new expansions, other game release, etc). The last thing they want to do is have 2 quarters of really bad numbers. That means that they need to get WOD out of the door before the end of Q3. Come hell or high water. Just look the the very recent cuts/delays in features. This is now about damage control. Blizzard are very good at maintaining their sub numbers. It's a big selling point for the game. It's also important because the longer you have people unsubbed, the less likely they are to return.

- - - Updated - - -

I am not buying that September 23 is anything more than an unrealistic pipe dream/placeholder.

1. If you consider external Alpha+Beta as one continuous public testing cycle, the average duration of Alpha+Beta for the last 3 expansions has been 6.7 months. To release by September 23, they would need to cut that down to 3.5 months. I can buy that they will get through the testing cycle faster this time, but cutting it down by nearly half is highly unrealistic.

2. We are in week 5 of Alpha/Beta with 2 zones tested. It looks like it will be week 6 (next week) before a new zone is tested. At 3 weeks per zone, and 6 zones left to go, the leveling content testing alone is going to be another 3-4 months and September 23 is only 2.5 months away.

3. Raid testing hasn't started yet. They said that they want to have addons enabled at about the time raid testing starts, but are not near that point yet. Raid testing takes 2-3 months typically. Unless they start that in the next couple of weeks, September isn't happening.

I think it's far, far more likely that what we are seeing with them pushing to beta sooner than expected and pushing more info out faster is that they need to expedite the process to hit a November/December release cycle. November 18 looks like the most realistic date. It will put the game on shelves a week before Thanksgiving/Black Friday and just before Christmas. It's a full ~10 days after Blizzcon, it lines up within a week of the 10th anniversary, and pushing the release into December would create problems with content release time cycles, etc.

Business isn't always reasonable like that. Business often drives decisions more than "when it's ready" ones. They are cutting swabs of things at the moment. That's definitely not just for fun. Raid testing can be manipulated. Especially if it takes them 3-4 weeks to release the mythic content.

[quras]

I am not buying that September 23 is anything more than an unrealistic pipe dream/placeholder.

SNIP...

Same here. It's just a placeholder date and will be pushed back to the date blizzard actually goes with. Which will be much later in the year given beta ATM.

[Deleted]

They released Cata so Christmas Eve was on the second week of heroic progression. Inconveniencing a few heroic raiders who are also going to Blizzcon is not even going to be a blip on their radar, especially if we're talking about the 6th week. They have more important things to worry about when setting a release date.

Blizzcon timing does matter for their own schedules, as it requires a fair bit of work and time from them. I wouldn't expect it within a few weeks of Blizzcon because of that. Other times are completely reasonable and they can always delay raids for an extra week or just let the top raiders deal with their own schedules as they have in the past.

Whether or not it's the 23rd, heroic raider schedules have very little impact on it. Cata timing is a good indicator of that.

[Tiberria]

Business isn't always reasonable like that. Business often drives decisions more than "when it's ready" ones. They are cutting swabs of things at the moment. That's definitely not just for fun. Raid testing can be manipulated. Especially if it takes them 3-4 weeks to release the mythic content.

Right, but their cutting of things and expedition of the beta process could be interpreted as one of two things
1. They are going to rush it out completely before the end of September
2. They are realizing that they are in danger of missing a November/December release date time table and kicking their asses in gear to make sure they don't have to explain to the player based why December 20 won't be met. They might have to cut the stuff they are cutting just to meet that release period.

I think the second option is far, far more likely and logical. If they released on November 18, the public testing cycle would still be a month shorter than the average and the shortest of any of the last 4 expansions. The release date of that guide isn't relevant, because it can easily be adjusted later. The fact that they released the guide at the same time as the last few expansions also isn't relevant, because we don't know how far ahead of the expansion they finalized the release date. Unless someone can find that information, this September 23 thing is just noise that people are grasping on to because it's what they want to happen.

If they release this thing in another 2.5 months, it's going to be a bugged, unpolished, unfinished mess. It might bandaid their Q3 numbers, but if they don't get the expansion release done right, the long term damage will offset that within 6 months or less.

[Paula Deen]

I love the people that keep bringing up Blizzcon in this thread, you realize SoO would have a 2 week difference from this correct? Thats it? I was progressing on Heroic Thok when Blizzcon was happening last year, so were hundreds of other guilds, this effects nothing.

[Irian]

I wouldn't say it's gospel, but likely we can expect it on the 23rd. That's a nice find.

It would make sense based on beta release and just blizzard's general schedule with things, as well. I just hope they don't rush it. I was under the hopes that they haven't announced a release date because they don't have a planned release yet due to still working on content. September 23rd isn't that far off.

[huth]

Well, it's up for the raids to decide. What is more important to them, BlizzCon or world firsts? In the end, Blizzard isn't going to base their schedules on a tiny fraction of an already small fraction of their player base.

Christmas Eve, where everyone not visiting family is inside on their computers and very easily able to game... Vs. Blizzcon, the biggest Blizzard event of the year where they showcase TONS of potential new stuff and hold competitions for the best players there.

Very different situations you're comparing here.

Because as we all know, hardcore raiders have no family. BlizzCon is nice and all, but in the end, you're not going to miss the important info even if you don't go. Raids are just going to fit their schedule around both events either way.

[Paula Deen]

World First guilds vs. World Hundredth.

People pay attention to the world first kills. People don't pay attention to the world hundredth. For world firsts to line up with Blizzcon wouldn't be a good idea. Not saying it's not the plan, just not a good plan if it is.

They lined it up with Christmas.... TWICE.

And the argument you provide about why Christmas is different is lame. Listen, Blizzard already has money from the Blizzcon tickets, they don't give a shit. Christmas and Blizzcon attract about the same amount of attention in the WoW Community, it would be no different either way. They have two release windows. September and November. Thats it. One of those is a release date. Unless they manage to somehow go full retard and release in October..... which would make no sense anyway you spin it.

[Deleted]

Christmas Eve, where everyone not visiting family is inside on their computers and very easily able to game... Vs. Blizzcon, the biggest Blizzard event of the year where they showcase TONS of potential new stuff and hold competitions for the best players there.

Very different situations you're comparing here.

It's still going to be an extremely minor factor for them. They're going to be setting the release date based on when they can get it ready enough , their schedules vacation and Blizzcon wise, and how long they think they can wait subscriber wise. No one at Blizzard is going to say "X would be a good release date, but oh no! What about the few hundred top raiders who'll be inconvenienced. Better delay it for another month or two.""

If it's ready and their own schedules permit, they'll release it even if Blizzcon would be on the 2nd week of progression nevermind the 6th. If it's not ready enough, then they won't.

Besides they also have the options of moving around the opening dates of raids and their difficulties including Blackrock Foundry, which is coming an unknown time from launch. If Highmaul progression race is impacted by Blizzcon, that's not the end of the world.

[Blade and Soul]

Hmm, a little under 3 months?

I'm not too sure about that. They have a lot to do still. I am more-so thinking they release it on the 10th anniversary of WoW. November 23rd is a Sunday, so would be 25th if they follow Tuesday release conventions.

Let's face it, we won't have a complete expansion at release. At best we will have one that's 80-90% completed, and they will fill the rest with patches. Releasing in September screams forced release date to me.