What the hell happened to ESO and Wildstar?

[May90]

Did I really get an infraction for this? Nice job moderators. Way to stick up for the shills.

Infractions seem to be a bit random on these forums. I remember, for example, someone get infracted for claiming that AMD production is of poor quality in Intel vs AMD thread.

Anyways, back on topic, "WoW killer" has never been pronounced nor indicated by a single MMO developer. The quotes BenBos showed don't really mean anything other than the fact that the developers tried to pull some of the WoW crowd to their games - which would be weird if they didn't. Unfortunately, when people are annoyed, when they are tired of one game being the only "godlike" game out there for years, they start getting impatient and, with wishful thinking, start labeling every major upcoming MMO as "the game that will finally place a dead blow on WoW". Of course chances of that happening are slim: even if there is a MMO released that is 10 times better than WoW in every single aspect, still many people have invested so much time in WoW that they won't abandon the game completely, at least, for a couple of years.

I never understood all this fuzz about "game killers" anyway. When I look forward to a new game, I just want a good game. I don't want this game to ruin some other game, I would prefer both games to be great and successful. IMO, it would be ridiculous, say, to label Dragon Age 3 as "Mass Effect killer", this doesn't make any sense.

[Marthenil]

Did I really get an infraction for this? Nice job moderators. Way to stick up for the shills.

If you have an issue with moderation, feel free to contact a blue mod.

Now back on topic.

[donjn]

You guys are really trying to argue with benbos? The biggest shill of blizzard that there has been around here?

Please post productively. Infracted. -Edge

The internet is completely overrun with WoW bashers. I find benbos' defense of WoW refreshing, because he kind of is...right...these days it takes balls to defend WoW like he does. The fact remains, WoW is still king for a reason.

But I do disagree with his views on Diablo 3. I do feel Hearthstone is due for a drop off but Diablo 3 has gotten batter with every patch, and has passed WoW on Xfire. If Blizzard releases another Expansion for D3, look out..

[ramjb]

What happened to ESO and Wildstar? They killed WoW, that's what happened. WoW will be shut down during WoD.

[Edge-]

What happened to ESO and Wildstar? They killed WoW, that's what happened. WoW will be shut down during WoD.

*bad picture*

I...what? You do realize that

1. That graph does not support your claims, as you would have to attribute WoW's decline to more than just ESO and WildStar, but every other MMO released after 2011.

2. That's not how player graphs work out in the longterm. Yes, there is a contraction of players, but it does not continue to zero at that same rate. It stabilizes at a certain point and remains relatively static once there. If MMO's followed that trend then the majority of the MMO's on the market would be shut down due to them losing all their players, and that's not the case.

[corebit]

Lots and lots of MMOs these days are rushed as fuck, and released without being properly tested and without getting proper input from players.

How can you say that when Wildstar took almost 9 years to develop?

[ramjb]

I...what? You do realize that

1. That graph does not support your claims, as you would have to attribute WoW's decline to more than just ESO and WildStar, but every other MMO released after 2011.

2. That's not how player graphs work out in the longterm. Yes, there is a contraction of players, but it does not continue to zero at that same rate. It stabilizes at a certain point and remains relatively static once there. If MMO's followed that trend then the majority of the MMO's on the market would be shut down due to them losing all their players, and that's not the case.

Um that graph has been independently confirmed by multiple mathematicians. WoW is going to be shut down some time during its next expac - and part of that reason is due to a mass exodus of people leaving for ESO and Wildstar, which far surpass WoW (this is undeniable) technically and mechanically.

[errpopu]

Could you or someone else elaborate? I vaguely understand what Attunements are, a form of gating content. Are the raids locked behind paywalls or reputations or a quote of quest items or random drops? I heard once about a raid in WoW (I don't even know which one it is) where you had to get a buff from a mob in Azshara and if it fell off you'd have to zone out and go BACK to Azshara and get the buff again, but I don't know if that's true or not.



That does seem pretty ridiculous for non-level cap content. Imagine if you couldn't run Wailing Caverns if you didn't have Tank Heirlooms as a Warrior. u.u

ok so attunement is a series of things u have to do so that u can enter a dungeon. these IMO were great cause it kept out all the casuals from just getting lvl cap and start raiding. during attunement ud get basic gear needed for doing the dungeon. the thing with wildstar attunement its that it was way too hard core. first ud have to do some silly quests then get rep caped with ur faction (this was the first wall) which even tho wasn't that hard it took a solid week of doing quests and dungeons. after that ud have to get silver medal on all veteran adventures, do a couple of more quests, get silver + on veteran dungeons (which was the second wall cause to get silver + ud have to complete the dungeon which was hard as it was) then kill some world bosses and then do 2 or 3 more quests. to be honest it wasnt that hard it was just time consuming and required that ud be committed. the thing is wow has gotten people used to just get to max lvl and start raiding (which in my opinion is just bad) and it has turned the mmo player community into a more casual crowd. its sad really cause wildstar imo was such a great game.

and as for requiring the gear for doing certain things. its just common sense... u cant have a feral druid healing in feral gear.... and anyone who cries over that is just a casual bitch

[Edge-]

Um that graph has been independently confirmed by multiple mathematicians. WoW is going to be shut down some time during its next expac - and part of that reason is due to a mass exodus of people leaving for ESO and Wildstar, which far surpass WoW (this is undeniable) technically and mechanically.

Which mathematicians? I'd be curious to see their data on the matter.

Also curious as to exactly how many people left WoW for ESO/WS compared to how many left for other reasons. And then curious as to how ESO/WS have done in terms of player retention. We already know both games have taken big hits to their launch population.

That graph assumes a few things.

1. There will be no more expansions to provide subscriber boosts. This seems silly, given that expansions are always a time when MMO's see bumps in sub/player numbers.

2. That the game will never find a "core" audience. Again, if every other MMO faced this same graph, then most of the MMO's on the market right now would be closed down. They aren't, because games have a "minimum audience" that they reach where losses stop. This "minimum audience" is their core fanbase that's going to stick around until the end.

Not to mention the graph (both of them) simply ignore the possibility of a F2P transition, which would be an absolutely monumental shakeup to the MMO market.

[Ausr]

I...what? You do realize that

1. That graph does not support your claims, as you would have to attribute WoW's decline to more than just ESO and WildStar, but every other MMO released after 2011.

2. That's not how player graphs work out in the longterm. Yes, there is a contraction of players, but it does not continue to zero at that same rate. It stabilizes at a certain point and remains relatively static once there. If MMO's followed that trend then the majority of the MMO's on the market would be shut down due to them losing all their players, and that's not the case.

I know a certain t word is prohibited to accuse others of but yeah.

[MoanaLisa]

I would suggest that anyone that believes that World of Warcraft is shutting down soon--based on a graph no less--has never heard of something called "The Long Tail". You should look it up. It's perfectly valid in this case.

[Frumious Bandersnatch]

The same thing that happened to all the other mmos releasing with a sub fee in the last 8 years. ESO was a buggy piece of crap that had potential to be a diamond. Wildstar is good, but its pretty challenging and a niche mmo for hardcores. Id I had to guess which one will still be around in 5 years Id guess wildstar with a solid 250-400k playerbase. If that is enough money to sustain them that is. Wildstar will probably be about as successful as Rift give or take. Almost every mmo is failin these days, WoW included. New mmos with a sub fee have almost no chance.

It has absolutely nothing to do with a subscription fee. It's all about the quality of the product. Game designers just have a mental block about what's important early on in an MMO and what isn't. That's why they keep failing, free or otherwise.

[Deleted]

Um that graph has been independently confirmed by multiple mathematicians. WoW is going to be shut down some time during its next expac - and part of that reason is due to a mass exodus of people leaving for ESO and Wildstar, which far surpass WoW (this is undeniable) technically and mechanically.

That gem of a contribution made me skim your post history, and boy I was not disappointed.


On topic, the prediction part in the first graph (Q3/13 and later) is wrong, the second graph is incomplete (we have way more data than 34 quarters by now) and now you - pretty please - name on of those 'multiple mathematicians' who could be bothered with this BS.

[Common Sense]

What happened to ESO and Wildstar? They killed WoW, that's what happened. WoW will be shut down during WoD.

Pardon my confusion, but how has Wildstar killed WoW when it currently only has between 100-200 thousand subscribers? The devs are going into overdrive trying to make content for the casual player base they alienated (but now realize they need) which means they aren't creating more hardcore content for the few hardcore players they've managed to retain. It's a downward spiral if I've ever seen one. It will undoubtedly be F2P within 6 months.

[May90]

Um that graph has been independently confirmed by multiple mathematicians.

Perhaps. But you approximated it the wrong way. You approximated it by square polynome, whilst, from statistics, it should be approximated by Poisson distribution - that is there should be infinitely long tail, as opposed to the function crossing the coordinates at 2015 on your graph.

Anyway, I think it is silly to expect WoW to die any time soon. There are still millions of players that have invested a lot of time in it, so not a single game can make them quit WoW forever immediately. Instead of waiting for WoW to die, I suggest instead waiting for new great MMOs that could exist alongside WoW.

[shoc]

Hello I put myself into crippling student debt to learn things like business or something.

I was going to post something big and wordy about Long Tail stuff but TLDR Long Tail = right, that chart that shows WoW literally bottoming out during WoD = donk

[PizzaSHARK]

Hello I put myself into crippling student debt to learn things like business or something.

I was going to post something big and wordy about Long Tail stuff but TLDR Long Tail = right, that chart that shows WoW literally bottoming out during WoD = donk

Duh. Yall just need to find a bridge for this guy already, it's pretty clear what species he is.

[Darksoldierr]

Which mathematicians? I'd be curious to see their data on the matter.

Also curious as to exactly how many people left WoW for ESO/WS compared to how many left for other reasons. And then curious as to how ESO/WS have done in terms of player retention. We already know both games have taken big hits to their launch population.



That graph assumes a few things.

1. There will be no more expansions to provide subscriber boosts. This seems silly, given that expansions are always a time when MMO's see bumps in sub/player numbers.

2. That the game will never find a "core" audience. Again, if every other MMO faced this same graph, then most of the MMO's on the market right now would be closed down. They aren't, because games have a "minimum audience" that they reach where losses stop. This "minimum audience" is their core fanbase that's going to stick around until the end.

Not to mention the graph (both of them) simply ignore the possibility of a F2P transition, which would be an absolutely monumental shakeup to the MMO market.

You are being trolled mate.

[Grimr]

i can't speak for ESO but wildstar, in terms of endgame you had the attunemnts but you also had the gear grinds. Now some were hourly events some were dailies etc. The problem was the gear was not all that good. To be quite honest i personally did not want to grind for 30 days to get a single piece of okay gear. I myself nvr was able to finish wildstar's dungeons or adventures. Groups fell apart after losing gold and the normal ones they fell apart easily enough. The tunning was terrible. They did eventually remove loot based on medals but the timer for medals still stands.

However i will say that wildstar did things on day one that wow has take ten years to finally do like player housing compared to wow's garrisons. Stacks of items are 100 compared to 20, heck you had a your own resource bag. I didn't mind the combat too much except when it came to my esper for a game designed around moving and the esper is the caster well you get where I'm going and the dps was terrible. Like everyone else has said wildstar is a niche hardcore MMO really wasn't meant to be a wow killer but a game to cater to vanilla wow crowd.

Another point to say and this goes for all mmo's including WoW. I have said this many times and this is coming from analysts that simply say MOBA's are the new trend. MMO's will become a niche market.

- - - Updated - - -

The internet is completely overrun with WoW bashers. I find benbos' defense of WoW refreshing, because he kind of is...right...these days it takes balls to defend WoW like he does. The fact remains, WoW is still king for a reason.

But I do disagree with his views on Diablo 3. I do feel Hearthstone is due for a drop off but Diablo 3 has gotten batter with every patch, and has passed WoW on Xfire. If Blizzard releases another Expansion for D3, look out..

I disagree with Diablo 3. I played it on release. I think i got my wizard to finish hell difficulty. But i could not justify paying 40 for ROS. LOD had way more content and was worth w/e price i paid for it. Blizzard south baiscally r$%^& Diablo 2 and what blizz north worked tirelessly to create. IMHO Diablo should have stayed with blizzard north when they left Blizzard.

[PizzaSHARK]

I disagree with Diablo 3. I played it on release. I think i got my wizard to finish hell difficulty. But i could not justify paying 40 for ROS. LOD had way more content and was worth w/e price i paid for it. Blizzard south baiscally r$%^& Diablo 2 and what blizz north worked tirelessly to create. IMHO Diablo should have stayed with blizzard north when they left Blizzard.

Online-only was the biggest mistake Blizzard could've made. Modding was a large part of why D2 remained so popular for so long, and going online-only destroys any chance of modding taking place.