Mission Fail/Success Percentages? Less Than 100% Ever Succeed?

[Spiralphoenix]

Show me a video of it saying 100% chance, and you failing it. I call bullshit.

It's not like this is a reasonable request. Part of the issue with something with a very low probability of happening is you can't really just go and make it happen on a whim. Especially in this context. Not like everyone is just screenshotting or frapsing their mission windows constantly waiting for this super low probability thing to occur. When it does, evidence of it is gone in seconds. There's no mission history or log to look through.

I've never seen it happen personally, but what he is describing is perfectly legitimate as something that could happen. Rounding is a thing that happens, and failing something with a 99.5-99.99% chance of success is a thing that happens (especially in a game with several million people). Just because you haven't seen it and the chance of it happening is very low doesn't mean it can't happen. That said I've never seen any official confirmation that this is what's going on. And it could also just be a display bug somewhere that's unrelated to rounding. Some follower counter or other contribution being calculated and displayed as more than what the server counts it as. It seems unlikely at this point with how many times the complaint has come up that literally all of them are lying (especially with how little there is to gain, since Blizzard almost certainly will not do anything about it on an individual basis).

[gallamann]

a couple things people should know...

Higher iLevel followers increase your success chance, a 650 follower will give you ~1% better chance than a 645 follower

Dancer trait - this sucks ass, claims to counter danger zones but if you stick a follower with that on a mission it lowers your chance as much as 13%

[Deleted]

My alts 98% Highmaul mission succeded yesterday.

[Deleted]

I just failed a 95% mission, and right after a 99% mission. Not even mad.... There definitely seems to be something weird going on with Blizzard RNG, and this is not from just Garrison missions, but also Diablo 3 gem rolls and stuff like that. Also I can't remember ever succeeding on a 56-59% mission. If I have then they've been very rare.

[Dasani]

Ive been successful at like 16%. Come at me.

Also there was an exploit a while back, not sure if its really been fixed or not because i've been using an addon to handle my garrison crap, but it let you get success every time regardless of chance but if you did it wrong, you could insta fail it, even at 100% chance. Its possible to use this exploit without even knowing it because it's a fairly simple thing to do that some people might do without thinking about it, it could lead to fails at 100% because being unaware of exactly what it is will more than likely result in you having the wrong timing and autofailing it more often than not if you do happen to trigger it.

[Jester Joe]

Ive been successful at like 16%. Come at me.

I had a 2% mission succeed. I wish I got a screenshot of it, but I used MasterPlan so it closed the menu by itself showing the succeed.

[ComputerNerd]

Random is Random.
I have had 90% plus fail, but also sub 40% succeed.
It can be frustrating, but that is why its called a chance.
A high number is not a guarantee except for 100%.

If you have more failures than you would come to expect, then that is simply bad luck.

[valax]

managed to get mythic crates with 69% and 87% so i'd say yes, they can definitely succeed

[AeneasBK]

I had a 2% mission succeed. I wish I got a screenshot of it, but I used MasterPlan so it closed the menu by itself showing the succeed.

Likewise with 4%. I went on to fail a 96% one later in the day to balance it out.

[Rotted]

I frequently succeed with 60% chance, but the last few weeks, I've been failing 87% through to 97% loads and I mean loads

[Logwyn]

Yes, you can.

Visually on your your Garrison UI it rounds your success percentage up for you so it looks more neat. Ex: A 89.6% chance of success is rounded up to 90% for you on your screen. That doesn't change the fact that it is still less than a 90% success chance in reality.

So when you're presented with a lovely 100% success chance on the other side it may actually be reading 99.6%

It is an extremely small chance of possibility but it has happened to me once and I know of another person who has had the same unfortunate luck.

Never say never.

Then its not a 100% chance mission. Its the UI reporting incorrect.

But on topic. I've have 25%-90's% pass and fail.

[Deleted]

Friend of mine failed 100% chance mission, it was found to be a bug and has been fixed. Also had succesful misson with 2% chance..

It goes all down a amount of luck you have.

[ItachiZaku]

On one of my toons, Blue Vivianne has failed every non-100% mission. Every single time. She is something like 0-17. From 31% success chance up through 98% (group). On other toons, she is fine. I seem to have good success on lower mission % overall.

[Tyrgannus]

I don't believe I've ever lost a 90%, but like wise I don't believe I've succeeded on anything lower than an 80%.

[Averrix]

I had a mission fail with a 99% success chance. They should of made that an achievement and it could of been called, "You are the One Percent"

[Deleted]

100% missions can not fail.

Or do you want to tell me not a single player in 3 months of WoD could make a screenshot of the following information (when it failed)?
*pic*

Also Onyxia Deep Breaths more often since 6.0.3

I'd have to agree with this badly honestly. Haven't even seen an attempt to photoshop it, yet everyone has a friend of a friend of a guildie to who(m?) it happened. Spamming missions on 12 chars, not once seen it. Also the UI rounds down from what I've read: http://us.battle.net/wow/en/forum/topic/15354637640

Same with the "triple roll" that the engine does for 3 follower missions. Would be so easy to check by just getting - say - 40 missions at 50% chance (easy to force 50% iirc), because if triple roll then odds would be 12.5% only which makes the gap huge. Hell I may just do that over the weekend when bored. In before someone claims 40 is not a sample, and succeeding - say - 19/40 could still mean it's actually 12.5%. Chance of hitting 19 (or more) successes out of 40 when odds are 1/8 is roughly 0.0000065%. Even a sample of 20 and succeeding 9 or more already would result in only 0.034% chance of happening with 1/8 odds.

[Deleted]

My very first Mythic HM cache succeeded on 58%.

[zlloyd1]

i have won a 78% mission before...I just failed my first high % mission and it was 97%!!!!! I was so shocked.

Don't be shocked, that is Blizzard math....
If it is not 100%, there is generally no chance at all for a mission to succeed.
THAT is the piece of garbage that Blizzard calls a 'random' number generator. I know this, because I have some experience with PHP scripting, and you can, for whatever reason, create a random number script that purposely rolls low the majority of the time, and that seems to be what Blizz has done.
If it does not say 100%, don't even try it, and even then, according to some friends, it can still fail because they are creeps, and don't want the players, who pay their salaries, to have anything!!

PS. The RNG, is just a way of saying no chance, because there is almost Never a 100% chance for anything. So, don't even bother doing missions, they were designed by Blizzard, and Blizzard HATES YOU!!

Infracted {MoanaLisa}

[MoanaLisa]

Since the thread is more than three years old it will be closed. Please carefully check the age of threads before you post in them and if you have something to say that warrants the thread being brought back to life (it happens once in a while) please make it constructive.

Closing.