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  1. #1

    Naval Fleet to counter all missions with >90% Chance

    Fleet setup #1 [>90% on All] missions:
    Code:
    Fleet Combination:
    Human Battleship - First Strike, Evasive
    Human Battleship - Swift, Minelayer
    Pandaren Battleship - First Strike, Swift
    Human Carrier - Icy Water, Minelayer
    Pandaren Carrier - Swift, Evasive
    Pandaren Carrier - First Strike, Evasive
    Human Destroyer - Swift, Minelayer
    Murloc Destroyer - First Strike, Evasive
    Human Submarine - Stormy Weather, Swift
    Human Submarine - Minelayer, Evasive
    
    Total Missions Simulated: 89
    Missions below 90%: 0
    Missions at 100%: 70 out of 89 (78.65%)
    Average Success %: 98.47
    Lowest Success %: 90
    Fleet setup #2 [>90% and Maximum gold returns on Gold, Siege and Gold Bonus] missions:
    Code:
    Fleet Combination:
    Dwarven Battleship - Swift, Minelayer
    Dwarven Battleship - Cursed Crew, Stormy Weather
    Dwarven Battleship - First Strike, Evasive
    Pandaren Battleship - First Strike, Swift
    Dwarven Carrier - Swift, Chaotic Whirlpools
    Human Carrier - Swift, Evasive
    Dwarven Destroyer - Cursed Crew, Minelayer
    Human Destroyer - First Strike, Icy Water
    Murloc Destroyer - Cursed Crew, Evasive
    Dwarven Submarine - First Strike, Minelayer
    
    Total Missions Simulated: 30
    Missions below 90%: 0
    Missions at 100%: 16 out of 30 (53.33%)
    Average Success %: 96.3
    Lowest Success %: 90
    Gold Reward: 16491.3
    Fleet setup #3 [>90% on Gold, Siege, Bonus and Cache missions:
    Code:
    Fleet Combination:
    Dwarven Battleship - Swift, Minelayer
    Dwarven Battleship - Stormy Weather, Cursed Crew
    Pandaren Battleship - First Strike, Swift
    Dwarven Carrier - Swift, Cursed Crew
    Human Carrier - Swift, Evasive
    Dwarven Destroyer - Cursed Crew, Minelayer
    Human Destroyer - First Strike, Minelayer
    Murloc Destroyer - Cursed Crew, Evasive
    Dwarven Submarine - Swift, Minelayer
    Human Submarine - Chaotic Whirlpools, Minelayer
    
    Total Missions Simulated: 35
    Missions below 90%: 0
    Missions at 100%: 20 out of 35 (57.14%)
    Average Success %: 96.69
    Lowest Success %: 90
    Gold Reward: 15865.8

    Update 4 (Dec 30th 2015)
    Added Fleet#3 that will also counter Cache Missions with >=90% chance, but with a bit less gold returns overall.

    Update 3 (Dec 15th 2015)
    Treasure Hunting Setup#2 updated slightly, since the old one did not ncounter the Gold Bonus mission.
    For those who already built the fleet with the old setup, here's a step by step guide to avoid confusion :
    • Change Submarine Equipment from Chaotic Whirlpools into First Strike
    • Change Equipment on one of the Dwarven Carriers you had -> Swift + Chaotic Whirlpools.
    • Decommission the other Dwarven Carrier you had, be careful not to destroy the one you just equipped the new gear with.
    • Instead, build a new Destroyer with Human crew, equip with First Strike and Icy Water.

    Update 2 (Dec 8th 2015)
    * Added Fleet for Gold hunting, this ensures no mission is below 90% (on relevant missions), while still trying to maximize gold reward from missions with using Dwarven crews. Please note that this will NOT meet all gold missions with only Dwarven crews, as it will take the missions success chance below 90%.
    * I did not yet test it with an actual fleet (will take some time to build), this has only passed the sim. So there that small possibility I missed something.

    Update 1 (Dec 6th 2015)
    * Fixed an incorrect data input in one of the missions that simulated the mission with higher chances than actual.
    * Fixed Pandaren bonus calculation, seems to give higher bonus than the patch notes says.

    Q & A :

    Q: What's the purpose of the first fleet setup ?
    A: Having the ability to clear ALL the missions on the board, without loosing a single ship.

    Q: What's the purpose of the second fleet setup ?
    A: Having the ability to clear Gold & Siege (Blockade) missions on the board with the maximum dwarven bonus possible while keeping success chances >=90%.

    Q: How did you arrive to that setup ?
    A: Small code I wrote, that simulates various fleets against known missions. It does 100k random fleets per hour and keeps looking for a better one. After about a million fleets, I took the best one it found, and further optimized it via another code.

    Q: Which Cache missions difficulties does it take into account ?
    A: All difficulties has the same chances with this setup, keep in mind that Fleet#2 wasn't designed to counter them, so don't use it if you care about those missions.

    Q: Is this the best setup one can get ?
    A: Most probably not, the amount of combinations available are around 15 digits long, I cannot/would not compute this on my poor modern home PC. but it's definitely "good enough".

    Q: I don't see "The Awakener" there, WTF ?
    A: IKR, I didn't believe it too at first, but apparently another Human/Panda ship is better. Tried argue with the code I wrote, but I didn't found a bug (yet).

    Q: I see "Human" crews, Is this Alliance only ?
    A: Fleets was optimized for Alliance missions for coding simplicity, but I did test them on Horde missions and it works about the same there, just replace the Alliance crews with the Horde crews (i.e Human -> Undead)
    Last edited by Nir; 2015-12-31 at 01:27 AM.

  2. #2
    What are the success %s if the crews aren't human, but same equipment? Still above 90%?

  3. #3
    Quote Originally Posted by ramjb View Post
    What are the success %s if the crews aren't human, but same equipment? Still above 90%?
    few "easy" missions doesn't require the racial bonus so they will still be above 90%, but there are many missions that does as it's really a huge boost after last week hotfix.
    truth is, there's a different "best" setup for each type of missions a player would care about, I just started with a setup that would counter it all.

  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by Nir View Post
    few "easy" missions doesn't require the racial bonus so they will still be above 90%, but there are many missions that does as it's really a huge boost after last week hotfix.
    truth is, there's a different "best" setup for each type of missions a player would care about, I just started with a setup that would counter it all.
    Well you should probably only consider the treasure missions, rather than all missions. Since xp is useless when all ships are purple. And even then the baleful gear missions aren't that important.

  5. #5
    As awesome as this is (and it is pretty awesome, kudos to the idea and implementation), did you take into account simultaneous missions?
    My point is that having all >90% missions is somewhat useless if your setup allows for sending 2-3 at a time, since that's pretty much what one can already do nowadays with an all-RNG fleet.

  6. #6
    Deleted
    no Transporters? I dont belive that code....

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by Fummockelchen View Post
    no Transporters? I dont belive that code....
    Murlocs can swim

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Flabberly View Post
    As awesome as this is (and it is pretty awesome, kudos to the idea and implementation), did you take into account simultaneous missions?
    My point is that having all >90% missions is somewhat useless if your setup allows for sending 2-3 at a time, since that's pretty much what one can already do nowadays with an all-RNG fleet.
    No, that would add some amazing complexity for the code. And since there are already enough calculations, I had to prioritize the more "important" factors which are "0 Missions <90%" and as much missions @ 100% as possible. That said, it'll most likely allow to run simultaneous missions, since every ship from those 10 have a crucial effect on the overall performance of the fleet (i.e all ships play a role -> none is sitting idle)
    If you feel you can already counter all missions above 90% with your RNG fleet, then you can ignore this thread, but I find it highly unlikely.
    Feel free to write down your RNG fleet and I would check where you might lose some ships.

  8. #8
    Thanks for your work and sharing

  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by Nir View Post
    No, that would add some amazing complexity for the code. And since there are already enough calculations, I had to prioritize the more "important" factors which are "0 Missions <90%" and as much missions @ 100% as possible. That said, it'll most likely allow to run simultaneous missions, since every ship from those 10 have a crucial effect on the overall performance of the fleet (i.e all ships play a role -> none is sitting idle)
    If you feel you can already counter all missions above 90% with your RNG fleet, then you can ignore this thread, but I find it highly unlikely.
    Feel free to write down your RNG fleet and I would check where you might lose some ships.
    There are lots of missions where I'd lose ships ^^
    I was approaching this from a different angle than you, i think. I only use the yard nowadays to go for the 1000 mission achievement, not for specific missions (gold, apexis and whatnot). Therefore, the most important aspect for me is how many simultaneous missions I can safely conduct, which, currently, is 2 to 3.
    But i realize now, my approach is definitely not everyone's approach.

  10. #10
    Bonus points if you can run this for treasure missions only with goblin/dwarf.

  11. #11
    Can you find out a fleet that would get most GOLD missions (i dont care about rest) above 80% with dwarf/goblin crew and have most of rest of treasure missions at 90+%? i DONT need 100% missions, because my intent is to run treasure missions just to clean them up (and not loosing ships in process) so i have more gold missions spawning.

  12. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by Machinelf View Post
    Bonus points if you can run this for treasure missions only with goblin/dwarf.
    And Siege missions too..
    been running random combinations for this for the last 10hr, seems it's a lot more difficult to get all (gold) missions >90% with 2 Dwarven crews in each gold mission. For now I don't want to compromise for only a single Dwarven bonus, it's double or nothing. Will report back if I find something good to share.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by SoLoR1 View Post
    Can you find out a fleet that would get most GOLD missions (i dont care about rest) above 80% with dwarf/goblin crew and have most of rest of treasure missions at 90+%? i DONT need 100% missions, because my intent is to run treasure missions just to clean them up (and not loosing ships in process) so i have more gold missions spawning.
    At first I also believed that clearing all Baleful missions would make more gold missions spawn, but post hotfix - i'm not so sure if it matters.
    If anyone have a substantial observation on their spawn mechanic, please share. For now I'll try and optimize a fleet for Gold + Siege missions only.

  13. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by Nir View Post
    And Siege missions too..
    been running random combinations for this for the last 10hr, seems it's a lot more difficult to get all (gold) missions >90% with 2 Dwarven crews in each gold mission. For now I don't want to compromise for only a single Dwarven bonus, it's double or nothing. Will report back if I find something good to share.
    You wont be able to... maximum you can get on certain gold missions with 2x dwarf/goblin ship is 79% for example this mission: http://www.wowhead.com/mission=565/a...or-is-safe-but

    expert captain cant be countered + you can only counter 2 our of 3 "types", so it gives you 79%, + some other when you can only counter 2 out of 3 "types" gives you max 84% (because instead of expert captain you get 1 or 2 cursed crew that you can counter), however this is still good and i am willing to go with this % and risk ships.

  14. #14
    Mechagnome Styxxa's Avatar
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    This is great, since I don't really care about min/maxing gold or sending all ships at all times. At this point I only really care about not switching out my bloody counters for every single ship on every single mission.

  15. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by Styxxa View Post
    This is great, since I don't really care about min/maxing gold or sending all ships at all times. At this point I only really care about not switching out my bloody counters for every single ship on every single mission.
    First time I changed an item on a ship was yesterday, since i got the left shark mission at 84%. It was my last rare mission and I got a little paranoid

    If you're changing counters at a daily basis that's just wrong. Or stupidly unlucky.

  16. #16
    That's really nice work. Personally I'd rather run mostly +gold crews and whatnot to increase rewards and run the risk of occasionally losing a ship (should be very low now).

    Interesting that the Awakener doesn't show up!
    Quote Originally Posted by Tojara View Post
    Look Batman really isn't an accurate source by any means
    Quote Originally Posted by Hooked View Post
    It is a fact, not just something I made up.

  17. #17
    Update 1 (06/12/2015)
    * Fixed an incorrect data input in one of the missions that simulated the mission with higher chances than actual.
    * Fixed Pandaren bonus calculation, seems to give higher bonus than the patch notes says.
    Small update, and new fleet to reflect it. I hope there won't be any "new" bugs I discover.
    Working on fleet for Gold Treasures now, still thinking of a better way to prioritize gold outcome (considering that not loosing ships in the process is also important).

  18. #18
    this is pretty cool but no dwarven crews or fishing nets

  19. #19
    i will not rebuild 100 and more ships to get forsaken/humans into there

  20. #20
    I havenbt done much naval stuff. On the pandaren ship. you say 2 swift. Is that a blast furnace and another item that counters swift ?

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