Page 3 of 4 FirstFirst
1
2
3
4
LastLast
  1. #41
    The fact that we're still having this discussion after two years of WoD shows just how useless the system actually is (I posted in a thread just like this one right after WoD came out). Maybe they should just make every mission 50/50 and stop with this percentage crap - you can fail missions at 95% and succeed at 55% ones. Yeah, RNG, but yeah, dumber than a box of hamsters.

  2. #42
    You should spread out your counters a bit better. I'm pretty much swimming in ability reroll items now, I'm sure most people have plenty of them too now. Perfect your followers, it's not like we have many other things to do

  3. #43
    Quote Originally Posted by Ringthane View Post
    The fact that we're still having this discussion after two years of WoD shows just how useless the system actually is (I posted in a thread just like this one right after WoD came out). Maybe they should just make every mission 50/50 and stop with this percentage crap - you can fail missions at 95% and succeed at 55% ones. Yeah, RNG, but yeah, dumber than a box of hamsters.
    lol wut
    /10char

  4. #44
    Over 9000! Saverem's Avatar
    10+ Year Old Account
    Join Date
    Jul 2009
    Location
    Coolsville, Daddio
    Posts
    9,383
    Quote Originally Posted by IxilaFA View Post
    Confirmation bias isn't just for when you have a vested interest in the result, though that's often where it can manifest. To continue with my red light example, even though I'm never late for work and leave early enough that no amount of red lights can impact whether I get there on time or not, my brain still doesn't adequately process how many greens versus how many reds I am getting.

    In your case, you started noticing a trend and now confirmation bias is actively kicking in. Everytime you fail a gold mission, it reaffirms your belief. Everytime you succeed a gold mission it doesn't process because, as you mentioned, you don't care about gold. One way I try to combat my own confirmation biases is to try and actively notice whenever something falls within the norm. For the next week, everytime you succeed a 90 or 80 percent gold mission, take notice and think about it for a moment. By the end of the week I promise you will recognize there is nothing "fishy" going on.
    That was too well put for me to argue. Well done.
    "It's not what we don't know that gets us into trouble; it's what we know for sure that just ain't so." ~ Mark Twain
    "The time you enjoy wasting is not wasted time" ~ Jesus of Nazareth
    "把它放在我的屁股,爸爸" ~ Dalai Lama

  5. #45
    Quote Originally Posted by IxilaFA View Post
    Nobody, so far as I know, has tested it. And for a long time that was the prevailing theory of how the missions worked. Unless someone actually did the math to see how it plays out, that very well could be how it still works out.

    That says nothing about the percentage of succeeding 'rare' missions at a higher % than non-rare missions, however, so you're correct there.
    The author of MasterPlan tested it out and verified (according to him) that it was a single roll rather than a roll per follower quite some time ago.
    Quote Originally Posted by Kaneiac View Post
    This game isn't about your friends, though. This game is about taking it seriously enough that you do the hardest content no matter what it takes (transferring, etc), lasting friendships and other elements be damned. /s

  6. #46
    Deleted
    Quote Originally Posted by JemiS View Post
    The author of MasterPlan tested it out and verified (according to him)
    Where's the study?

  7. #47
    Pandaren Monk Bodom's Avatar
    10+ Year Old Account
    Join Date
    Nov 2010
    Location
    Norway
    Posts
    1,924
    Quote Originally Posted by tobindax View Post
    Where's the study?
    I'm not going to dig through a hundred garrison mission threads to find statistics. What I would find interesting though are statistics showing the in game percentages are wrong. Statistics showing they are right aren't particularly interesting.

    If I'm saying I got a feeling the percentages are correct, after having done the missions every day on 33+ characters for a year now, I've got about as much proof as anyone else in this thread. Prove me wrong.

  8. #48
    Deleted
    Quote Originally Posted by Bodom View Post
    I'm not going to dig through a hundred garrison mission threads to find statistics. What I would find interesting though are statistics showing the in game percentages are wrong. Statistics showing they are right aren't particularly interesting.
    Wait wait wait. First of all, we don't even know if we are misreading what Blizzard is saying on the UI, it says a percentage, if it's the percentage each of the follower is having to succeed when they hit that enemy, it might be perfectly legit and normal. Second, Blizzard is not known to be that explicit and hard numbers about what they communicate.

  9. #49
    Elemental Lord Rixis's Avatar
    10+ Year Old Account
    Join Date
    Feb 2010
    Location
    Hyrule
    Posts
    8,864
    Quote Originally Posted by tobindax View Post
    Blizzard is not known to be that explicit
    The tooltip explicitly states "Mission Rewards Chance".

    Seriously, I can't believe there are people dense enough to still think that the value shown is based on each individual follower.

    You'd pretty much never complete any missions below 90% chance. A 3 follower mission showing 80% chance would fail 50% of the time. You'd fail the majority (over 50%) of missions that showed a 79% chance of success.

  10. #50
    The other day on a alt i had a small gold mission 300-500g (i think) fail on 98%

    Thats pretty harsh rng
    I had a all Night Elf Guild in Vanilla

  11. #51
    From this thread. It's 2,055 missions at varying difficulties.
    http://www.mmo-champion.com/threads/...-like-50/page4


    Quote Originally Posted by Meldetia View Post
    I was curious about the same thing - so I started keeping track. Stopped a while ago but recorded 2,055 mission results along with the in game success %. Tried to get as large a variety of different % missions and have at least 1 mission for each success % above 50% with the exceptions of 52%, 57% and 61%. In general they do seem to match up well with the predicted success chance, but haven't done any standard deviation calculations. I did not record how many followers were used for each mission so can't show if that had an effect such as was suggested by other posters.

    To keep this list smaller will only include ones that had at least 50 missions.

    % chance in game failed succeeded % success observed
    51% 35 39 52.70%
    53% 45 45 50.00%
    59% 34 63 64.95%
    62% 24 41 63.08%
    70% 20 39 66.10%
    73% 19 68 78.16%
    75% 49 156 76.10%
    81% 10 52 83.87%
    83% 15 130 89.66%
    87% 24 123 83.67%
    91% 4 93 95.88%
    93% 6 69 92.00%
    95% 6 143 95.97%
    96% 2 56 96.55%


    Highest recorded fail was 97% (1 failed, 27 success for 96.43%).
    If anyone wanted more of what I recorded will keep an eye on this. Bolded the 70% questioned in the thread which turns out was a lower % observed then predicted in game, but not by much really.
    My reply to this was the anomaly at 70% is hugely affected by RNG with almost a 1/3 chance to fail. It would not be uncommon for two different players to run the same three missions: One fail them all, one succeed them all giving 0% vs 100%.
    You would need to run a massive number of iterations to see the true trend of the stated success chance against the actual chance.

    Now look at the 96% chance. You remember the 2 fails like they were yesterday, and mysteriously forget the 56 that succeeded

    By all means someone can go away from here and do an insane amount of calculations to try and prove that Blizz is the ninja in the shadows taking your shit for lulz. Or you can just accept that if it isn't 100% you're not safe from a fail based on a really simple percentage calculation.
    Last edited by Zelendria; 2016-01-21 at 01:50 PM.

  12. #52
    Pandaren Monk Bodom's Avatar
    10+ Year Old Account
    Join Date
    Nov 2010
    Location
    Norway
    Posts
    1,924
    Checked all missions today and all non-100% missions combined had an average success chance of 75.8%. Out of those missions 23.1% failed, which is more or less what I expected given the percentages. One of them was a 98% which failed, and I had several in the 50% range that succeeded.

  13. #53
    Deleted
    Quote Originally Posted by Zelendria View Post
    From this thread. It's 2,055 missions at varying difficulties.
    http://www.mmo-champion.com/threads/...-like-50/page4
    That looks like a good study. Above 40 or 80 samples statisticians consider the estimations to start becoming reliable.

    PS. I won't even comment on those that use personal attacks without ever reading a study.

  14. #54
    How are people having so many failures at this point in WoD? I recruit a follower every week and every week I level a new follower. I keep my ability counters spread around. Maybe once per day among 8 or 9 alts I have 1 mission I need to complete <100% but it's because the timer was low and I just said f it.

  15. #55
    Greed is good... until the RNG screws you over I've just went for 3k with 86% or somewhere in the 90%s rather than 100% 2k.

  16. #56
    Quote Originally Posted by Saverem View Post
    Just failed my second 4k gold garrison mission with 94% success chance (other one failed at 91% success chance). Guess next time I go for 3kg with 100% chance...

    It's like they have a hidden bonus fail chance on gold missions or something. 70% success chance for gold missions is really 40%.
    Haha I don't trust the numbers my garrison shows. I feel like I fail all the big ones too, your not alone! Missed a champions honor the other day that I had like a 97% chance on.

  17. #57

  18. #58
    it's just RNG, mate. it only seems like Blizz has secret debuffs against gold missions

  19. #59
    The Lightbringer
    7+ Year Old Account
    Join Date
    Mar 2015
    Location
    Banned to the Bone.
    Posts
    3,637
    Maybe the percentage success if you count ALL missions is correct. The problem here is GOLD missions. I happen to have Green Fel Mission either completable at 100% with one TH or 91% with 2 TH. Checking my 2-month recent statistics (changed computer and didn't keep my old spreadsheet) on 6 attempts at 91% i have 4 failures and 2 successes. After that i stopped doing it at 91% and do it at 100%. True, the sample is ridiculously small, but it definitely augments the feeling there's something fishy with the percentages. I still maintain that the success percentages are an average, but when an ability isn't countered at all either by environment or race buffs, the chance of failure is extremely large.

  20. #60
    Quote Originally Posted by Fabinas View Post
    Maybe the percentage success if you count ALL missions is correct. The problem here is GOLD missions. I happen to have Green Fel Mission either completable at 100% with one TH or 91% with 2 TH. Checking my 2-month recent statistics (changed computer and didn't keep my old spreadsheet) on 6 attempts at 91% i have 4 failures and 2 successes. After that i stopped doing it at 91% and do it at 100%. True, the sample is ridiculously small, but it definitely augments the feeling there's something fishy with the percentages. I still maintain that the success percentages are an average, but when an ability isn't countered at all either by environment or race buffs, the chance of failure is extremely large.
    So you admit that your sample size is too small to reasonably draw conclusions... And then try to draw conclusions?
    Quote Originally Posted by Kaneiac View Post
    This game isn't about your friends, though. This game is about taking it seriously enough that you do the hardest content no matter what it takes (transferring, etc), lasting friendships and other elements be damned. /s

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •