Iowa Caucuses tonight

[Rukh]

Anyone else watching the play by play of the caucuses?

I'm watching live updates on:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog...election-2016/

and:
http://abc7ny.com/politics/live-cove...-news/1181897/


So far for Democrats, Hillary is polling slightly ahead but that is very vague information and can change quickly. Also, Ben Carson is dropping out!

Edit:
https://twitter.com/RealBenCarson

Not dropping out, just going home. (though apparently he'll skip two major campaign states in doing so, meaning he's as good as gone)

Apparently in Iowa the entrance poll says 17-29 year olds support Sanders 91% - 8%! Unfortunately they're only 15% of the electorate.

[Nanaboostme]

Ill be checking back up on it but still taking it with a grain of salt since its a minuscule caucuse

[Garnier Fructis]

There's already a thread on this somewhere

[Rukh]

There's already a thread on this somewhere

Is there? I looked but didn't see one. Oh I see it now. Some links by connal?

- - - Updated - - -

Very early polling:
http://www.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/IA/Rep

For Republicans, Cruz is currently leading Trump 36% to 32%.
Clinton leading sanders 52% to 48%.

[corebit]

Iowa's delegates are proportional right? So 1st place winner doesn't mean much? Except for the obvious momentum going to later states of course.

[Rukh]

Iowa's delegates are proportional right? So 1st place winner doesn't mean a lot right? Except for the obvious momentum going to later states of course.

Yes you are correct. A second place finish in Iowa is still significant. This is just from after 2012, so it's a new thing.

[Venant]

It's interesting that there are supposedly people signing up to vote against Trump, funny that the only way to do this effectively would be to vote for Cruz.

[Rukh]

Ever time I flip back to it, one or the other between Cruz and Trump are ahead by ~1%. They are completely neck and neck.

[Xeones]

So disappointing to see Clinton at 53 and Sanders at 46

[Rukh]

This is the direct data from Microsoft who has provided the polling technology:

Democrats:
https://www.idpcaucuses.com/#/state

Republicans:
https://www.iagopcaucuses.com/#/state


Found it.

[lockedout]

So disappointing to see Clinton at 53 and Sanders at 46

I know way to many votes for either of them.

[vastx]

Another concise continually updated front page -

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/?state=nwa

[lockedout]

This is the direct data from Microsoft who has provided the polling technology:

Democrats:
https://www.idpcaucuses.com/#/state

I don't have the Republican address, anyone have it?

Bernie doesn't trust the Microsoft tech, he thinks it's rigged.

[AdrianCC100]

Can someone tell me what the point of these polls are? Is Sanders out if he doesn't win tonight? I feel stupid.

[Independent voter]

Can someone tell me what the point of these polls are? Is Sanders out if he doesn't win tonight? I feel stupid.

No. I guess if Bernie were to do really really poorly it would hurt him, but that's not likely.

[Wells]

So disappointing to see Clinton at 53 and Sanders at 46

If he can't win Iowa that's a bad sign. Its a demographic that's already more favorable for him.

[Slybak]

Iowa's delegates are proportional right? So 1st place winner doesn't mean much? Except for the obvious momentum going to later states of course.

The Iowa Caucuses are basically "Iowa Straw Poll II: Electric Boogaloo."

Caucuses also a terrible way to pick general election candidates, generally and specifically with respect to how Iowa does them (and even more so with respect to how they're structured for Democrats). Rotating primaries are the best, with a set of diverse states hosting the first contests every election cycle, but that's not going to change until both parties finally decide that having the first election contests in Iowa and New Hampshire is stupid.

[Rukh]

Can someone tell me what the point of these polls are? Is Sanders out if he doesn't win tonight? I feel stupid.

Overall speaking, it doesn't mean a lot as Iowa is now a proportional endorsement state. That means he could end up only like an endorsement or two below Clinton on the grand totals. Strategically speaking though, as Wells says, its a bad sign for him as this state was supposed to be one of the more favorable towards him.

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I think Carson is doing better than quite a few people (Including Carson) thought. Paul is beating Bush. El oh El.

[AdrianCC100]

Overall speaking, it doesn't mean a lot as Iowa is now a proportional endorsement state. That means he could end up only like an endorsement or two below Clinton on the grand totals. Strategically speaking though, as Wells says, its a bad sign for him as this state was supposed to be one of the more favorable towards him.

What a shame. I really like Sanders.

[Rukh]

What a shame. I really like Sanders.

As do I. I'm pretty surprised actually at the results so far. Its still fairly early though...