Wisconsin GOP Primary

[ringpriest]

On https://electionbettingodds.com/week.html, Trump has dropped to 45.5 percent to win the nomination down 21 points in a week.

And an interesting tidbit from the exit polls:

"If the general election came down to Trump vs. Hillary Clinton, two in 10 GOP voters in Wisconsin say they’d vote for Clinton or stay home, slightly more than would do so if the contest were between Cruz and Clinton. Similar numbers would vote for a third party in both situations."

So 39% would not vote for the republican candidate if it's Trump. Only slightly better if it's Cruz. No wonder the GOP is shitting it's pants.

Yep - even if one assumes that some of those "never that guy" voters would come around, hold their nose, and vote for the nominee, if even half of them just stay home, not only is the White House a loss (which really, had been the case for some time now), but all those downballot races take a hit; the Senate goes goodbye, state houses slide D, and the Dems make gains in the House.

I don't think the Republicans have a truly good option at this point.

If they nominate Donald, he dumps filth all over their brand and downballot races. It doesn't even matter if he wins or not, because the establishment will be wrecked as he turns the party into the Party of Trump. And the party likely splits, because parts of the big business and religious right hate him with a burning passion.

If they nominate Cruz, the so-cons and the other Trump-haters stay on board, but now Trump is going to throw a tantrum, take his 30% of the base or so, and go home - whether he runs as 3rd party, starts an "anti-republican" movement or whatever almost doesn't matter; whatever he does, its a fractured party and damage to the downballot - negative coattails.

If they somehow manage to nominate someone else - Ryan, Romney, Kasich, whoever, the entire populist wing of the party will scream to high heavens and likely raise a massive hue and cry that will break the party even more surely than the above two options (they'll likely have alienated both the populists and the "true" conservatives). I suppose there a slim chance of finding a real compromise ticket, somehow. (The reanimated corpse of Reagan, with Ivanka for VP?) If they can do that then "all" they have to deal with is a party that isn't openly at war with itself and is covered in filth from the primary season.

[Hooked]

I knew he'd lose Wisconsin. Cruz needs 89% of the delegates down from 90%. Which is why he's a spoiler. Almost as bad as Kasich who needs over 100%

Ultimately the anti-trump machine will arrogantly believe they made him lose when demographics were the cause. The red area is the hole in his support.

If you dont understand population characteristics and demographics you are essentially ignorant in my opinion.

Trump won the entire south and Michigan. So your chart means nothing really.

[Manabomb]

Those aren't real Republican if they would vote for Hillary. I'll just link this http:////www.realclearpolitics.com/v...llary_yes.html Anyone who would vote Hillary should have their brain examined!

Roflmao, you can't be real right now.

Hilary postulating intelligent viewpoints and every religious person is just writhing in their knickers.

Man I can't wait for an actual pro-life argument that doesn't involve religion.

[ringpriest]

This, again, depends quite a bit on votes on the convention rules for nominating and delegates.

As a practical matter, the GOP would still need Cruz on the ticket as VP if they managed to pull some such shit just for party unity... much as it's near certain that if Cruz is the nominee, he'll choose some establishment friendly Governor as his running mate (Kasich, maybe Walker, maybe Nikki Haley), as Reagan picked HW for party unity after having thwarted the establishment of his era to claim the nomination.

The difficulty with that scenario is finding an establishment, media-friendly governor who is willing to tie their political future to a campaign that will likely share the fate of the Titanic; governors like Haley and Sandoval have a future, and don't want to touch the 2016 tarball with a pole. (There's always Kasich....)

[Pangean]

Ah good. The demographic decline of America is in full swing.

Actually polls showed Trump in the lead till 3/20 week and then Cruz taking over. That's a hell of demographic change.

[Felya]

So? I didnt say that was impossible. I merely said Cruz is just a spoiler.

And a worm who has copied Trump's positions, even his trade policy.

http://www.cato.org/blog/continuing-...tures-ted-cruz

Trump's version of 'fair trade' imcludes leaning on WTO to enforce regulations and make it easier for foreign business to operate in China:

Chinese manufacturers and other exporters receive numerous illegal export subsidies from the Chinese government. These include - in direct contradiction to WTO rules - free or nearly free rent, utilities, raw materials, and many other services. China’s state-run banks routinely extend loans these enterprises at below market rates or without the expectation they will be repaid. China even offers them illegal tax breaks or rebates as well as cash bonuses to stimulate exports.

The Chinese government also forces American companies like Boeing, GE, and Intel to transfer proprietary technologies to Chinese competitors as a condition of entry into the Chinese market. Such de facto intellectual property theft represents a brazen violation of WTO and international rules. China’s forced technology transfer policy is absolutely ridiculous. Going forward, we will adopt a zero tolerance policy on intellectual property theft and forced technology transfer. If China wants to trade with America, they must agree to stop stealing and to play by the rules.

https://www.donaldjtrump.com/positio...a-trade-reform

Having our manufacturing reveal their tech in China, is what I would call incentive to not move jobs to China. The fact that he would lean on WTO to do this, while "opposing" free trade... is just gravy...

[Stormdash]

The difficulty with that scenario is finding an establishment, media-friendly governor who is willing to tie their political future to a campaign that will likely share the fate of the Titanic; governors like Haley and Sandoval have a future, and don't want to touch the 2016 tarball with a pole. (There's always Kasich....)

The problem with fantasizing that every conservative, non-establishment GOP candidate will be Goldwater (aside from how you have to ignore RR's 93/100 state wins over two terms), is that Hillary isn't Johnson, there is no <1 year prior assassination of a popular President to swing sentiment, etc. It's dumb math every time it's floated. Carter was polling 40-32 over Reagan in April 1980.

[Pangean]

Yep - even if one assumes that some of those "never that guy" voters would come around, hold their nose, and vote for the nominee, if even half of them just stay home, not only is the White House a loss (which really, had been the case for some time now), but all those downballot races take a hit; the Senate goes goodbye, state houses slide D, and the Dems make gains in the House.

I don't think the Republicans have a truly good option at this point.

If they nominate Donald, he dumps filth all over their brand and downballot races. It doesn't even matter if he wins or not, because the establishment will be wrecked as he turns the party into the Party of Trump. And the party likely splits, because parts of the big business and religious right hate him with a burning passion.

If they nominate Cruz, the so-cons and the other Trump-haters stay on board, but now Trump is going to throw a tantrum, take his 30% of the base or so, and go home - whether he runs as 3rd party, starts an "anti-republican" movement or whatever almost doesn't matter; whatever he does, its a fractured party and damage to the downballot - negative coattails.

If they somehow manage to nominate someone else - Ryan, Romney, Kasich, whoever, the entire populist wing of the party will scream to high heavens and likely raise a massive hue and cry that will break the party even more surely than the above two options (they'll likely have alienated both the populists and the "true" conservatives). I suppose there a slim chance of finding a real compromise ticket, somehow. (The reanimated corpse of Reagan, with Ivanka for VP?) If they can do that then "all" they have to deal with is a party that isn't openly at war with itself and is covered in filth from the primary season.

Agreed. The Republican party in it's current form dies at this convention.

[mvaliz]

Cruz doesn't need to win. He just needs to prevent Trump from winning outright. Then he'll have outlived his usefulness and the Republicans will nominate Kasich or something at the convention.

My Goddess I hope that's the case! If they do that, then a) we'll have at least a somewhat SANE (or at least not fearmongering) GOP Candidate, and b) it's GUARANTEED for Trump to run independent just to stick it to the Republicans.

- - - Updated - - -

Oh, and btw, Bernie wins by a good deal as well in Wisconsin ^_^

[Actarius]

After that, it's basically either Cruz, or some non-candidate, but the non-candidate option depends entirely on what the delegation is willing to approve for proposed rule changes -- if 70-80% of the delegates on the floor back Cruz or Trump, it's hard to imagine a majority voting to approve a rule that would let someone other than Trump or Cruz be presented for nomination (Kasich won't be eligible without a change to 40B, let alone any inactive or non-candidate), and it might only happen with the GOP openly bribing them with comped travel expenses and such (perfectly legal).

I wanted to touch on rule 40B at the moment. Currently Cruz is also ineligible for nomination. 40B requires a majority of delegates from at least 8 contests. Cruz, while winning more than 8 states with plurality, he only has a majority of delegates in 7 contests, notably Texas, Kansas, Maine, Idaho, Wyoming (almost certainly, but could be wrong), Utah, and Wisconsin. He needs to get a majority of delegates in one more contest to be eligible.

[Stormdash]

I wanted to touch on rule 40B at the moment. Currently Cruz is also ineligible for nomination. 40B requires a majority of delegates from at least 8 contests. Cruz, while winning more than 8 states with plurality, he only has a majority of delegates in 7 contests, notably Texas, Kansas, Maine, Idaho, Wyoming (almost certainly, but could be wrong), Utah, and Wisconsin. He needs to get a majority of delegates in one more contest to be eligible.

It's widely considered a foregone conclusion that he'll take a majority of delegates in at least one other state, likely Nebraska and/or Montana if not others (still a possibility that anti-Trump bandwagon effect takes hold as well).

But, in the event he isn't, than that would be the GOP's "in" to get a rule change widening eligibility passed, since suddenly Cruz's delegates would support the change.

[alexw]

Yep - even if one assumes that some of those "never that guy" voters would come around, hold their nose, and vote for the nominee, if even half of them just stay home, not only is the White House a loss (which really, had been the case for some time now), but all those downballot races take a hit; the Senate goes goodbye, state houses slide D, and the Dems make gains in the House.

I don't think the Republicans have a truly good option at this point.

If they nominate Donald, he dumps filth all over their brand and downballot races. It doesn't even matter if he wins or not, because the establishment will be wrecked as he turns the party into the Party of Trump. And the party likely splits, because parts of the big business and religious right hate him with a burning passion.

If they nominate Cruz, the so-cons and the other Trump-haters stay on board, but now Trump is going to throw a tantrum, take his 30% of the base or so, and go home - whether he runs as 3rd party, starts an "anti-republican" movement or whatever almost doesn't matter; whatever he does, its a fractured party and damage to the downballot - negative coattails.

If they somehow manage to nominate someone else - Ryan, Romney, Kasich, whoever, the entire populist wing of the party will scream to high heavens and likely raise a massive hue and cry that will break the party even more surely than the above two options (they'll likely have alienated both the populists and the "true" conservatives). I suppose there a slim chance of finding a real compromise ticket, somehow. (The reanimated corpse of Reagan, with Ivanka for VP?) If they can do that then "all" they have to deal with is a party that isn't openly at war with itself and is covered in filth from the primary season.

You'll love this......

[ringpriest]

The problem with fantasizing that every conservative, non-establishment GOP candidate will be Goldwater (aside from how you have to ignore RR's 93/100 state wins over two terms), is that Hillary isn't Johnson, there is no <1 year prior assassination of a popular President to swing sentiment, etc. It's dumb math every time it's floated. Carter was polling 40-32 over Reagan in April 1980.

It's not a fantasy - Trump, Cruz and their ilk are terrible candidates not because I dislike their politics or their personal styles (though I do), but because the electoral math for them is awful - the Republicans are coming into this election with a triple handicap: 1) the Electoral College heavily favors the Dems, 2) the Republican just had a bruising primary which hurts their nominee no matter who it is, and 3) the nation is not exceptionally conservative these days (nor is it hyper-liberal; it's right leaning moderate with a heavy dash of socialism, as long as you don't call it socialism).

If you can find a conservative, non-establishment GOP candidate who isn't firmly on track to be a pariah and who can disassociate themselves from the GOP's bad rep and actually flip states, then sure, they'll have a good shot at Hillary (who is a weak candidate). Who did you have in mind?

[Stormdash]

It's not a fantasy - Trump, Cruz and their ilk are terrible candidates not because I dislike their politics or their personal styles (though I do), but because the electoral math for them is awful - the Republicans are coming into this election with a triple handicap: 1) the Electoral College heavily favors the Dems, 2) the Republican just had a bruising primary which hurts their nominee no matter who it is, and 3) the nation is not exceptionally conservative these days (nor is it hyper-liberal; it's right leaning moderate with a heavy dash of socialism, as long as you don't call it socialism).

If you can find a conservative, non-establishment GOP candidate who isn't firmly on track to be a pariah and who can disassociate themselves from the GOP's bad rep and actually flip states, then sure, they'll have a good shot at Hillary (who is a weak candidate). Who did you have in mind?

Yet all of this is happening against a backdrop of an equally divisive Democrat race in which, despite Sanders being on a strong roll that will not yield a nomination even if he wins out, more or less, in favor of an inspiring candidate with negatives higher than anyone who hasn't been a guest start at a previous Wrestlemania... it's not as damaging as it might be running against a popular incumbent or, well, someone people like.

Me, I think the ticket ends up as some combination, some Cruz/* or */Cruz, and that that combination will fairly well rofl-stomp Clinton, especially if a butthurt Trump tries to advocate for her.

[ezgeze]

The moment Trump came to Wisconsin and bashed Walker, his policies and stated that we needed to raise taxes.......he lost. The people found out exactly who the real Trump was.......a liberal democrat.

[breadisfunny]

The moment Trump came to Wisconsin and bashed Walker, his policies and stated that we needed to raise taxes.......he lost. The people found out exactly who the real Trump was.......a liberal democrat.

trump just became my new hero. walker is a piece of shit and a real slimeball. scott walker and those who support him are a blight on this state.

[Garnier Fructis]

The moment Trump came to Wisconsin and bashed Walker, his policies and stated that we needed to raise taxes.......he lost. The people found out exactly who the real Trump was.......a liberal democrat.

A liberal democrat? Really? His tax policy, immigration policy, every policy that's ended up in the news, is absolutely toxic to liberal democrats.

[ezgeze]

A liberal democrat? Really? His tax policy, immigration policy, every policy that's ended up in the news, is absolutely toxic to liberal democrats.

His actions speak louder than his words.
He supported Planned Parenthood
Thinks Hillary would make a great president
Is against deportation of illegals
Pro-Obamacare
Eminent domain supporter to build his stupid casinos
anti- gun
Gave money to democrats
Hires illegals
Creates a sham college to fleece idiots out of tens of thousands of dollars, "college" students sue
prolific supporter of OPM (other peoples money)
Once OPM ends he declares bankruptcy and finds other suckers.

then he decided to run as a republican to throw the election for Hillary and flip flops on every issue. Yes he is a democrat.

[breadisfunny]

His actions speak louder than his words.
He supported Planned Parenthood
Thinks Hillary would make a great president
Is against deportation of illegals
Pro-Obamacare
Eminent domain supporter to build his stupid casinos
anti- gun
Gave money to democrats
Hires illegals
Creates a sham college to fleece idiots out of tens of thousands of dollars, "college" students sue
prolific supporter of OPM (other peoples money)
Once OPM ends he declares bankruptcy and finds other suckers.

then he decided to run as a republican to throw the election for Hillary and flip flops on every issue. Yes he is a democrat.

how to spot a true scotsman fallacy.

[ezgeze]

I am not the only one in the state of WI who sees him for what he truly is, that's why he was soundly rejected tonight. We will see Trump at a brokered convention where he will have all his delegates jump ship on him, will cry foul and try to run as an independent. He will lose of course but he will try and throw the election like Ross Perot did in 92'.