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#### BfA Patch Speculation thread (8.3 and later).

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Since you're being so persistent let me reward you with a fun little puzzle. If you really are right you'll be able to solve it immediately and blow my mind.

When you start a competitive game of Overwatch you are matched with and against people in a similar SR to yourself, right? Right.
This means the pool of players you play with and against all come from the same distribution, over many games this will average to a Gaussian distribution centred on your SR (please see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normal_distribution for more information). This means your opponents will take on this average (there's 6 btw) and your team will too (there's 5 of them), you are now the only independent variable. If you play to the average SR, this means your games will generally be entirely random, and you should net a 50% winrate. If you play better, your teams average ability will be higher, you will win more often than lose. The inverse is also true, if you play poorly, you will lose more often, your SR will go down.

From this it follows that over a large enough number of games to approximate your pool of peers to a normal distribution, your ability will be the only determining factor as it is the only constant (or inconstant if you're unable to play at a consistent skill level! ) when deciding the outcome of your games.

Now tell me, from these fundamental assumptions and the logic that follows, how does your ability to climb depend on your teammates?

Acceptable answers: Correctly identify flawed initial assumptions. Correctly identify incorrect or inconsistent logic.
Unacceptable answers: Anecdotes, random insistence on being correct, shouting about T500 friends who think playing Rein in plat is hard.

I'll give you a mark out of ten after you've given it a try, okay buddy?
Straight from the source, fresh off the tap:
https://us.battle.net/forums/en/over...5504371#post-3

Kaplan himself shows variables that points out flaws in your absolutist argument.

2. Originally Posted by Battlebeard
Yes, in theory, you should have about a 50% winrate and I do, infact I am at about 55-60%. But since you lose significally more sr from a loss than you gain from a win makes you need about 70-75% to climb. I am in no risk of deranking but since i dont have 70% wins i dont climb either.

There is a difference in skill at plat and diamond, i play in both, but the difference between 2800 and 3300 is not insane and aimwise etc its fairly similar. The difference comes to communication and team comps, which are better in diamond. Now as a Moira/Mercy player who can play every other support too (except ana) i am limited to picks. If i played dps i cpuld maybe affect the game more but a support cant do that many crazy things outside of healing alot. A 3300 moira (me) is not enough to win the game at 2800. Maybe a mcree or genji could but not a support. It comes down to luck with teammates.

All I can do is my best, and do what I can. How good am I? Cross my heart, I am mid diamond, 3300-3400, and i have two accounts who with fresh placements placed there and I think that is correct. Why cant I climb on my main when I know im 500sr better than what it says? Why cant i climb when i give my all, which is enough to maintain diamond? What possible answer is it other than bad luck with teammates?
So you agree then that my premise holds and you are the only independent variable? Good, I'm glad we agree.

- - - Updated - - -

Originally Posted by Eapoe
Straight from the source, fresh off the tap:
https://us.battle.net/forums/en/over...5504371#post-3

Kaplan himself shows variables that points out flaws in your absolutist argument.
If you're gonna use a fairly long post as evidence of something perhaps you should highlight the relevant quote and explain how that disagrees with my point.

So you agree then that my premise holds and you are the only independent variable? Good, I'm glad we agree.
You intepreter quite freely. I never said that. What I mean is that EVERY player is the variable, and that the game can't be won by me alone. If performance could be meassure in a scale of 1-10, and I perform 9/10 a game and my teammates perform 5/10 in the game. YES, I could be 10/10 myself, but it's OBVIOUSLY more my teams fault for only being at 5/10. If there are 5 people at 50% and one at 90% performance, then it's OBVIOUSLY not the 90% performance guys fault, it's the lower performing peoples fault.

HOW can you still not get it? I litterally cannot explain this more clearly.

4. Originally Posted by Battlebeard
You intepreter quite freely. I never said that. What I mean is that EVERY player is the variable, and that the game can't be won by me alone. If performance could be meassure in a scale of 1-10, and I perform 9/10 a game and my teammates perform 5/10 in the game. YES, I could be 10/10 myself, but it's OBVIOUSLY more my teams fault for only being at 5/10. If there are 5 people at 50% and one at 90% performance, then it's OBVIOUSLY not the 90% performance guys fault, it's the lower performing peoples fault.

HOW can you still not get it? I litterally cannot explain this more clearly.
Okay, so you disagree but you do not provide any basis for where my logic breaks down or my initial assumptions are incorrect. That's the equivalent of sticking your fingers in your ears and screaming "LALALA I'M ALWAYS PLAYING BETTER THAN EVERYONE IT CAN'T BE MY FAULT".

If you'd like to continue this discussion further please highlight the in my previous post that demonstrates why you and only you are the lone independent variable, showing where it fails in some manner or another. Until you can do this, I am uninterested in listening to your anecdotes about soloing teams as Moira and screeching at your teammates that you have 5 gold medals and that they suck etc. etc.

Okay, so you disagree but you do not provide any basis for where my logic breaks down or my initial assumptions are incorrect. That's the equivalent of sticking your fingers in your ears and screaming "LALALA I'M ALWAYS PLAYING BETTER THAN EVERYONE IT CAN'T BE MY FAULT".

If you'd like to continue this discussion further please highlight the in my previous post that demonstrates why you and only you are the lone independent variable, showing where it fails in some manner or another. Until you can do this, I am uninterested in listening to your anecdotes about soloing teams as Moira and screeching at your teammates that you have 5 gold medals and that they suck etc. etc.
I never screech at anyone nor bring up gold medals. I only brought it up here as a brief example, since I had more elimination medals than our actual dps. The point was simply that it's easy to see in a game who performs well and who underperforms. There are plenty of sites where you can check stats for damage and healing etc, to get pure numbers. But more than numbers, I am used to the gameplay style of Diamond and with the perspective of two ranks and an SR span of about 1000 (from the lowest plats to highst diamonds) so I find it quite easy to see whos doing good and whos bad. Its not rocket science to see whos good.

I never said I was godlike or GM or anything. I am a fairly good at this game, skillwise mid diamond close to Masters than to Plat, and for that reason, I am basically always the best player when I play on my main in plat. There are sometimes others in my situation but overall, I always perform well.

You say "lalala im better etc" but the truth isn't that far off. I am normally a humble guy but here, since I take this very seriously, I actually DO play better than basically everyone else, and it reall isn't my fault. Would make sense, since i already told you countless times I also play in diamond and have that skill and perspective to compare with.

When you start a competitive game of Overwatch you are matched with and against people in a similar SR to yourself, right? Right.
The SR system doesn't measure skill though. It only measures your rating. There's huge differences between players on the same SR in skill levels. They need to like crank the personal performance influence on your SR up like 100 times or more, not remove it like they did. Best they could do is make you able to lose SR even if you win and get SR even if you lose, based on your performance.

7. Originally Posted by Jinro
Best they could do is make you able to lose SR even if you win and get SR even if you lose, based on your performance.
I don't see why I should gain sr if I have for example a K: D Ratio of 2:18 or way less heal as a mercy than the roadhog/mei on the team

So you agree then that my premise holds and you are the only independent variable? Good, I'm glad we agree.

- - - Updated - - -

If you're gonna use a fairly long post as evidence of something perhaps you should highlight the relevant quote and explain how that disagrees with my point.
You need to read the entire post as there is no paraphrasing. It is Jeff Kaplan’s own words of just a few, emphasis on few, of the ways MMR works. It goes over that it is not based purely on SR, even though that does play a part in the equation.
He states, while keeping parts hidden, how part of MMR works and the entire post is about that. The entire article is about MMR, not one small part of it. Kaplan’s own words are why I state it’s not as black and white as you and Thirza make it out to be.

9. Originally Posted by Jinro
The SR system doesn't measure skill though. It only measures your rating. There's huge differences between players on the same SR in skill levels. They need to like crank the personal performance influence on your SR up like 100 times or more, not remove it like they did. Best they could do is make you able to lose SR even if you win and get SR even if you lose, based on your performance.
Yes, I said that for years! SR should be 100% tied to personal performance.

10. Originally Posted by Battlebeard
Yes, I said that for years! SR should be 100% tied to personal performance.
That's where it averages out.

This whole bickering mess is a real turn-off for these forums. Just quit it already.

Bad team mates, smurfs, boosters, all that shit will give you bad matches; but it won't horribly effect your SR. I've been dumped down to mid silver loads of times by now because of these things, tilt etc. But give it a couple of days, get your shit back together and it's very easily recovered.

11. Originally Posted by Jessicka
That's where it averages out.

This whole bickering mess is a real turn-off for these forums. Just quit it already.

Bad team mates, smurfs, boosters, all that shit will give you bad matches; but it won't horribly effect your SR. I've been dumped down to mid silver loads of times by now because of these things, tilt etc. But give it a couple of days, get your shit back together and it's very easily recovered.
“Won’t affect SR that horribly.” *Goes on to show how it affects SR horribly.*
Dropping rank is a horrible affect to your SR. Getting put with people that lower your SR is a negative impact.
As a side note, never really had anyone compare a turn off to a forum. Implying you could get turned on by one is a little odd.

12. Originally Posted by Eapoe
“Won’t affect SR that horribly.” *Goes on to show how it affects SR horribly.*
Dropping rank is a horrible affect to your SR. Getting put with people that lower your SR is a negative impact.
As a side note, never really had anyone compare a turn off to a forum. Implying you could get turned on by one is a little odd.
I think if an SR drop is easily recovered, it's not really a horribly affect, at least this is what's I inferred after having read the post you quoted.

Also turn on/turn off aren't exclusively references to sexual attraction, words in the English language can have more than one meaning, or even slight adjustments to meaning given the context.

13. So as a slight break from the "discussion" currently ongoing...

With all the nerfs Brigette has gotten lately, I wonder how long it'll take before
she gets a complete rework.

14. Originally Posted by ThatsOurEric
So as a slight break from the "discussion" currently ongoing...

With all the nerfs Brigette has gotten lately, I wonder how long it'll take before
she gets a complete rework.
Why do you think she'll get/needs a rework?

Why do you think she'll get/needs a rework?
Jeff described her as a 'car crash' outside of 3 Support compositions.

- - - Updated - - -

I think if an SR drop is easily recovered, it's not really a horribly affect, at least this is what's I inferred after having read the post you quoted.
This. I typically hover 2100-2300.

I find it hard to go much above 2350, Career High is 2475, and that's entirely on me. Getting dumped down by a loss streak, yeah, it's pretty infuriating, but it's not the end of the world because I know I'll get back where I was pretty easily. It's not those loss streaks that are stopping me climb above that point.

16. Originally Posted by Jessicka
Jeff described her as a 'car crash' outside of 3 Support compositions.

- - - Updated - - -

This. I typically hover 2100-2300.

I find it hard to go much above 2350, Career High is 2475, and that's entirely on me. Getting dumped down by a loss streak, yeah, it's pretty infuriating, but it's not the end of the world because I know I'll get back where I was pretty easily. It's not those loss streaks that are stopping me climb above that point.
Lol really? I need to keep up with Dev posts better. She's pretty chill in plat, shuts down lots of silly enemy carries like Reaper/Mei/Tracer I've found, but I really enjoy her kit. I guess if she gets a rework it'll be because maybe that kit is really hard to balance?

Yeah I'm the same, I'm usually around 2800 or so, even on the worst days if I hit 2500 I start carrying games pretty easily, it's like there's steps to the player skill around plat-level, and 2950 is a fuckin' wall to me.

it's like there's steps to the player skill around plat-level, and 2950 is a fuckin' wall to me.
I can imagine, I get close to 2400 and get those premades with a Diamond and a couple of Golds in them, and the Diamond just carries, like properly untouchably hard carries. They are on a whole other level to me.

18. Originally Posted by Jessicka
I can imagine, I get close to 2400 and get those premades with a Diamond and a couple of Golds in them, and the Diamond just carries, like properly untouchably hard carries. They are on a whole other level to me.
Unless they're on your team of course, then the gold is so bad the diamond is unable to carry. And the gold always starts shit-talking their teammates too, that shit tilts me so hard lol.

But seriously, they probably tanked their SR to carry their friend, so they're probably more likely Masters/GM players. I don't think a Diamond could carry that hard in plat unless they're left uncontested, maybe. I feel like the plat/diamond barrier is mostly down to comms and aggression and possibly ult usage too, rather than mech. skill.

19. Today when I logged in there was a message on my screen warning me that leaving matches early will result in a penalty.
I only leave maps on the character select screen before the match even starts, and I don't play ranked anymore. Do I get penalty for leaving during hero selection? -.-

20. Originally Posted by Explicit Teemo Nudes
Today when I logged in there was a message on my screen warning me that leaving matches early will result in a penalty.
I only leave maps on the character select screen before the match even starts, and I don't play ranked anymore. Do I get penalty for leaving during hero selection? -.-
You can get penalized for “leaving” during the match found portion. The reason I put in quotation marks isn’t stating anything against you, but I have had dc’s or computer crash right as a competitive game shows “match found” and I get the penalty for it.
That said, I love how Ive fallen 200 SR in 2 days on a losing streak. Odd thing is that 4 of my recent games I’ve had people playing their placement matches on my team against people with diamond ranks. Another few games I try communicating with the team and they just keep funneling thru a choke point against a Bastion and Junkrat, then team complains the healers aren’t healing enough.
Not a fun streak to be on right now.
Down 300 SR now.

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