Real Legendary drop rates and other statistics for 9785 chars [Spreadsheet]

[Tiphess]

It can be predicted. Your example just doesnt make any sense and will not happen in the real world.

If for example out of 15000 tries 1000 mounts were obtained. You can predict the chance of getting a mount the next try is roughly 1 in 15. With a margin of error dependent on the sample size. This is basic statistics.

Also, using percentages automaticly corrects for the amount of times Different types of content is being cleared. (If 1% of heroics gear dropped is a legendary and 2% of mythic gear is legendary. You can then say mythic gear dropped is twice as likely to be a legendary.)

If theres twice the amount the players that does mythic, of course you will see a larger droprate, hence why it can't be predicted.

[Maester]

Thank you for doing the work to shut up everyone who thinks bad luck protection doesn't exist.

[Deleted]

If theres twice the amount the players that does mythic, of course you will see a larger droprate, hence why it can't be predicted.

It doesnt matter how many players clear mythic. Its a percentage of gear dropped as legendary. We are not comparing actual number of legendaries between heroic and mythic.

[Vicivia]

If theres twice the amount the players that does mythic, of course you will see a larger droprate, hence why it can't be predicted.

That's... just patently false. It's a drop RATE, a percentage, and 2% is still double 1%. If you are looking at a sample of a hundred or a hundred trillion that will never change. The larger sample size just gives a smaller margin for error.

[Tiphess]

It doesnt matter how many players clear mythic. Its a percentage of gear dropped as legendary. We are not comparing actual number of legendaries between heroic and mythic.

true

We can only make assumptions based on data, but even then it wont always be right.

So.. its unpredictable!

[Deleted]

true

We can only make assumptions based on data, but even then it wont always be right.

So.. its unpredictable!

Most research relies on data and calculating probability, this case is not any different. Theres always a chance of error, but with a big enough dataset, it can be brought down to a negligible number. Making it very predictable. Ofcourse, this does not mean you will get it guaranteed after 50 mythics. But it WILL help you compare different ways of getting legendaries. (heroics, mythics, mythic+, raids, caches)

[Audax]

10000 from 10 million subs 0.1% sample, and people actually believe it like the holy bible.

Percent of total population doesn't matter, absolute sample size does. 10000 is a lot.

[Vicivia]

10000 from 10 million subs 0.1% sample, and people actually believe it like the holy bible.

Even if you take a sample of 1M or everyone, you aren't going to see massive variances compared to 10000.

[thunterman]

The problem is that the Shield isn't reliable. Its on its own fixed timer and CD. You have to be lucky the shield wasn't low from chip dmg or the huge dmg came when it was down. Sure its better than nothing at all, but to say it can do anything on purpose is misleading.

Whether it's stopping small or large damage is irrelevant. I would say the number 1 cause of wipes for me is healers running low on mana, unable to continue healing at full potential. That necks shield directly translates into saving healers mana, which is a very good thing. It's better than nothing, and at the point where everyone can use 2, they should be using the neck as the second choice.

[Larynx]

In this thread: People with elementary understandings of statistics and probability arguing about statistics and probability. Please just stop.

After all, what's the point in arguing about probability? It's all rAnDoM and we can't possibly predict it!

[Demeia]

It's not undervalued at all.

It's value is only relative to its competition, some of which are MASSIVE DPS increases which dwarf the absolute shit out of it.

The second factor is that it's a piece of jewelry. A legendary Helmet will give you ~700 more primary stat over a typical 850 helm. A necklace will give you...nothing.

Stop making excuses for this insanely horrendous design Blizzard stuck with. It should have never ever been possible to get bad legendaries to begin with, but here we are. And before some other dickhead chimes in "herp derp at least you actually have one", that doesn't change the FACT that shit legendaries are in the game and should not be.

Don't want to go off as hard as this guy, but I was disappointing that I got the necklace--I would say gutted, really. It's like "Well, there went my streak protection on the one item I desperately hoped I would not get." The stats don't seem to be good, it doesn't have dex, and I'm a rogue and feel more survivable in the first place.

Perhaps they should have contemplated giving defense and offense to each item.

[Grosbill]

Don't want to go off as hard as this guy, but I was disappointing that I got the necklace--I would say gutted, really. It's like "Well, there went my streak protection on the one item I desperately hoped I would not get." The stats don't seem to be good, it doesn't have dex, and I'm a rogue and feel more survivable in the first place.

Perhaps they should have contemplated giving defense and offense to each item.

You realise neck and rings don't have your main stat on them right? (also Dext is in Diablo, it's Agility in WoW )

[Deleted]

In this thread: People with elementary understandings of statistics and probability arguing about statistics and probability. Please just stop.

After all, what's the point in arguing about probability? It's all rAnDoM and we can't possibly predict it!

The point is that if you really want to farm for legendaries. You can farm content that has a higher probability of dropping them.

[Demeia]

You realise neck and rings don't have your main stat on them right? (also Dext is in Diablo, it's Agility in WoW )

Yes, that was the point, a point that had been made elsewhere in the thread.

[Deleted]

absolute sample size only matters in deterministic environments, getting a legendary is Random so you need an acceptable % of the population

I'm not sure what you mean by random. There is a percentage chance of them dropping depending on a specific type of content. With a big enough sample size, you can determine it. Total population plays no roll.

[wych]

10000 from 10 million subs 0.1% sample, and people actually believe it like the holy bible.

To be fair i'd rather people believe in basic statistics and probability than Adam and Eve....

[Thelxi]

nvm didnt scroll down

[Aurora]

Nice work, interesting stats.

[Kudos]

The worst thing about RNG is seeing the effort I put in compared to others. Since getting my hidden artifact appearance, I have done 52 Mythic plus runs. (I'm tracking them with my mod), did enough BGs to get the 1000 kills appearance and cleared normal and heroic Emerald Nightmare. Everyone in my Mythic Plus group has 1 or more legendaries. (The DK and Druid both have 3 and I've been present for all their drops).. so I get really salty when a Hunter in our guild who only logs on to raid gets a Legendary in our normal EN clear..

Where's my bad luck protection..?

[Deleted]

Pure RNG can't be predicted.

So yes, in one sense you are correct, Pure RNG can not be predicted, but a computer is unable to produce a purely random number, They can use several methods to simulate it, from using atmospheric noise, to an algorithm that produces selection of seed numbers fed into another algorithm to produce a "random" number.

With enough time and data, (unless they are using some sort of complex interaction with the real world like random.org does) then it will be possible to work out the algorithm and thus predict it. With that being said, Blizzard will no doubt be tweaking and changing the system in the background at various points, which means any data collected previous to the changes that they make will make all the previous work invalid.