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  1. #161
    Quote Originally Posted by Skroe View Post
    The US. For at least the next century.

    Russia is in a miserable decline and will probably fracture again in years head. The fall of empires is on a scale larger than we can appreciate, and the Russian Federation is nothing more than another reorganization of the dying Russian empire.
    I dont see on what basis will they fracture ?

    In Europe, country can only fracture on national basis, and today Russia is mostly populated by Russians, up to 81% ..

    Other nations, if we exclude tiny Caucasus regions, are spread and mix out and are completely irrelevant ..

    I understand that for someone who is living in country like the US its hard to understand Europe nationalism, and how strong it is but i garanity you that there is 0% chances of some Russian, German or French to separate from their own state because of one reason or the other .

    20. century Russian Empire and USSR, who both have 50-60% of non Russians, were very prone to disintegration on etnich or religious basis, but Russia in present times is completely different story ..

    Quote Originally Posted by Skroe View Post
    Nah.

    Go back to the year 2000, let's name the most powerful countries in the world in rough order.

    (1) The United States
    (2) Russia
    (3) The United Kingdom
    (4) France
    (5) Germany
    (6) Japan
    (7) China

    And now in 2017?

    (1) The United States
    (2) China
    (3) Germany as leader of the EU.
    (4) Japan
    (5) Russia
    (6) France
    (7) The United Kingdom
    Time period 1991-1999 is probably the worst in Russian history if we ignore the world wars ..
    Russians were litaterly on ther knees, they just lost Chechnya conflict with drunk Yeltsin on power, military didn't even fly their warplanes, strategic bombers were just standing on airfields, submarines and ships were rotting in the harbors, oil was 10$ for barrel, salaries were like below 100$, unemployment was huge etc.

    Google "Economic history of the Russian Federation" if you are interested, i can go like this till tomorrow, but if you think that 2000. were good times for Russia lol you can not be more wrong .

    i don't really know what is your definition of power, but if we talk about political power its most likely like this in 2017.:

    (1) The United States (no.1 military)
    (2) Russia (no.2 military)
    (3) Germany (no.9 military)
    (4) China (no.3 military)
    (5) France (no.5 military)
    (6) The United Kingdom (no.6 military)
    (7) Maybe Japan (no.7 military)

    You wont see Japan stoping the Azerbaijan Armenia war, you dont see them in negotiations over Iran nuclear program, North Korea question (ok maybe there), Syria war, Ukraine conflict, Isis, strategic nuclear treaties, they dont have permanent seat in the united nations security council etc.. i just don't see them as a major world political power at all, i don't get it where do you find them relevant to world politics ?
    Last edited by Kiciner; 2017-01-02 at 01:10 AM.

  2. #162
    i wonder what kind of effect 50 years of globalization will have on superpowers. and the world.

  3. #163
    most of you are arguing based on trends of the last 10+ years or so. If our future was bound by the past 10-20 years then yes it would look the same going forward. unfortunately you are missing one caveat that is going to change everything. Our current trend in technologies is going to provide tremendous leaps in automation, robotics, and AI, not to mention fabrication, material sciences, and bio sciences. This stuff is not coming 20 years in our future but more than likely will be hitting commercialization in the next 5. The impact that its going to have on cheap labor and manufacturing processes will be disruptive beyond measure. who cares about a labor force that you have to run 3 shifts, pay, feed, house, insure and so on. .when you have fabrication units make and design parts from scratch via 3d printing then assemble them non stop 24 hours a day 7 days a week.. all you need is power and maintenance..

    Vertical Farming
    Energy
    Travel (we are already seeing driverless cars)
    manufacturing
    bio engineering
    gene engineering
    3d printing
    Virtual reality And Robotics (and expect this to go robotic as it works in space much like our drones do now from the saftey of the ground away from danger)
    7 of the worlds top predictionist said that the next 20 years of human growth will bring more change than the combined past of all human history.

    We can argue about how things were in the past.. unfortunately that is quickly becoming irrelevant as a way of measure and standards. Technology and how we handle the transition is going to largely cause large populations to become useless. This will cause mass disruptions across many nations shaking apart the standards of the past. While no one can predict 100%.. its become a matter of when.. not if.

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