Anthem: Bioware's next Mass Effect-like IP

[Shinzai]

BF 5 is considered a flop internally, despite what most would regard as good sales. Anthem is probably going to hit 3 million or so sales, in the first month, realistically. Its the type of game that just isn't going to have a massive initial impact, as a lot of people are just curious about it, but still unsure of what to think or expect from it.

The general public is fairly uninformed about it currently, but they (EA) are pushing hard with the marketing.

I don't think that the way EA functions currently is sustainable, as their expectations and the demands of share holders are guiding the company to a highly unrealistic place.

It's why Dead Space became an action, co-op game and why Dungeon Keeper got dumped on mobile. They're playing marketing buzzword whack-a-mole and the reason why Anthem has no Invested end game is because it's not proved itself as financially viable to do, yet.

If Anthem breaks its sale targets, I'd expect a healthy end game dlc to be dropped in Q3/4 this year. If not, probably just some stingy dlc full of store based mtx content will be added.

Mass Effect is basically done with and if Anthem fails to meet internal expectations, we will probably see one last Dragon Age game out of Bioware before they're shuttered for good.

[Gorsameth]

BF 5 is considered a flop internally, despite what most would regard as good sales. Anthem is probably going to hit 3 million or so sales, in the first month, realistically. Its the type of game that just isn't going to have a massive initial impact, as a lot of people are just curious about it, but still unsure of what to think or expect from it.

The general public is fairly uninformed about it currently, but they (EA) are pushing hard with the marketing.

I don't think that the way EA functions currently is sustainable, as their expectations and the demands of share holders are guiding the company to a highly unrealistic place.

It's why Dead Space became an action, co-op game and why Dungeon Keeper got dumped on mobile. They're playing marketing buzzword whack-a-mole and the reason why Anthem has no Invested end game is because it's not proved itself as financially viable to do, yet.

If Anthem breaks its sale targets, I'd expect a healthy end game dlc to be dropped in Q3/4 this year. If not, probably just some stingy dlc full of store based mtx content will be added.

Mass Effect is basically done with and if Anthem fails to meet internal expectations, we will probably see one last Dragon Age game out of Bioware before they're shuttered for good.

The problem with that view is that Anthem won't exist anymore in Q3/4 as everyone got bored out of their brains and left.

[minteK917]

It would be funny if Apex legends ends up with more players.

It already does

[Shinzai]

The problem with that view is that Anthem won't exist anymore in Q3/4 as everyone got bored out of their brains and left.

It's not a singular viewpoint and I took this into account in my post.

[kaelleria]

BF 5 is considered a flop internally, despite what most would regard as good sales. Anthem is probably going to hit 3 million or so sales, in the first month, realistically. Its the type of game that just isn't going to have a massive initial impact, as a lot of people are just curious about it, but still unsure of what to think or expect from it.

The general public is fairly uninformed about it currently, but they (EA) are pushing hard with the marketing.

I don't think that the way EA functions currently is sustainable, as their expectations and the demands of share holders are guiding the company to a highly unrealistic place.

It's why Dead Space became an action, co-op game and why Dungeon Keeper got dumped on mobile. They're playing marketing buzzword whack-a-mole and the reason why Anthem has no Invested end game is because it's not proved itself as financially viable to do, yet.

If Anthem breaks its sale targets, I'd expect a healthy end game dlc to be dropped in Q3/4 this year. If not, probably just some stingy dlc full of store based mtx content will be added.

Mass Effect is basically done with and if Anthem fails to meet internal expectations, we will probably see one last Dragon Age game out of Bioware before they're shuttered for good.

Their earnings report was yesterday. If they were expecting 3m they'd have said 3m. It would be an SEC violation if they were knowingly lying to their investors. 5-6 is not a crazy number.

Anthem is going against Crackdown 3 and Metro Exodus within their release window. Each of those have their issues.

[Onikaroshi]

Their earnings report was yesterday. If they were expecting 3m they'd have said 3m. It would be an SEC violation if they were knowingly lying to their investors. 5-6 is not a crazy number.

Anthem is going against Crackdown 3 and Metro Exodus within their release window. Each of those have their issues.

Not to mention, basically everyone who was going to buy Metro Exodus probably already did on the last day of it being on steam, I don't see EPIC's sales being anywhere close to steams.

[SirCowdog]

When every single game you release fails to meet your expectations, the problem is probably your expectation. But gl getting EA to recognise that.

5 mil sold in the first month feels like a tall order for a new game with big questions around its end game.

That REALLY depends on how well Anthem meets or exceeds the expectations of the players.

It seems to me that Bioware has been doing a fantastic job of communicating that we haven't seen very much of what the game has to offer, and they've also been really on the ball about responding to and correcting issues brought up by the community. It's entirely possible that Anthem might have a LOT under the hood that will boost confidence....and thus sales.

That's the problem with these kinds of sales expectations: There's just no real way to predict how the fickle online community will react. The live version of Anthem could very well be an incredibly solid product, but the community could turn on it in an instant over something relatively minor.

I'm not trying to defend EA or Bioware. Just elaborating on what you already said in a roundabout way: There's just too many unknowns about Anthem to be able to predict how well or badly it will sell. I think you're right that 5 mil in the first month is overly optimistic. But....I guess it's possible.

Personally I think Anthem will be a game with a long tail. Sales will come over time, and not be a massive blockbuster up front. Hopefully EA recognizes this and doesn't axe it before it has a chance to realize its potential. :/ But I think we all know how that's likely to go.

[kaelleria]

That REALLY depends on how well Anthem meets or exceeds the expectations of the players.

It seems to me that Bioware has been doing a fantastic job of communicating that we haven't seen very much of what the game has to offer, and they've also been really on the ball about responding to and correcting issues brought up by the community. It's entirely possible that Anthem might have a LOT under the hood that will boost confidence....and thus sales.

That's the problem with these kinds of sales expectations: There's just no real way to predict how the fickle online community will react. The live version of Anthem could very well be an incredibly solid product, but the community could turn on it in an instant over something relatively minor.

I'm not trying to defend EA or Bioware. Just elaborating on what you already said in a roundabout way: There's just too many unknowns about Anthem to be able to predict how well or badly it will sell. I think you're right that 5 mil in the first month is overly optimistic. But....I guess it's possible.

Personally I think Anthem will be a game with a long tail. Sales will come over time, and not be a massive blockbuster up front. Hopefully EA recognizes this and doesn't axe it before it has a chance to realize its potential. :/ But I think we all know how that's likely to go.

Destiny 1 sold 9m in the first week. Not saying it will do close to that well, but people are hungry for a new IP. If the launch goes well and it reviews well, sales will come.

[Shinzai]

Their earnings report was yesterday. If they were expecting 3m they'd have said 3m. It would be an SEC violation if they were knowingly lying to their investors. 5-6 is not a crazy number.

Anthem is going against Crackdown 3 and Metro Exodus within their release window. Each of those have their issues.

I said 3 million as my prediction. Not theirs.

[Ophenia]

Destiny 1 sold 9m in the first week. Not saying it will do close to that well, but people are hungry for a new IP. If the launch goes well and it reviews well, sales will come.

The problem is that nowadays, the market is dictated by """"content creators"""" e-stars who are blindly followed by a shitload of people unable to make their own view.

And Anthem is being bashed by those because "EA sucks", it is not being praised and even the neutral videos are quite rare. That's why I sadly expect that whatever the quality of the game, it may fail.

[kaelleria]

I said 3 million as my prediction. Not theirs.

Your prediction is based on nothing. There's is. You don't make up numbers in an earnings call unless you want to go to jail.

[Shinzai]

Destiny 1 sold 9m in the first week. Not saying it will do close to that well, but people are hungry for a new IP. If the launch goes well and it reviews well, sales will come.

Err the big difference with Destiny 1 is it was made by Bungie. Fans of Halo jumped all over it.

Not only was it by Bungie, but it came out 2 years after Halo 4 and 2 years before Halo 5 and was the bridge between the last gen of 360 and PS3 and One/PS4.

It was in a perfect position to succeed.

Right now, the market is flooded with loot shooters and battle royal games and Fortnite is this generation's Halo.

That's what Anthem has to deal with VS Destiny and nothing of note.

[Eleccybubb]

Err the big difference with Destiny 1 is it was made by Bungie. Fans of Halo jumped all over it.

Not only was it by Bungie, but it came out 2 years after Halo 4 and 2 years before Halo 5 and was the bridge between the last gen of 360 and PS3 and One/PS4.

It was in A perfect position to succeed.

Right now, the market is flooded with loot shooters and battle royal games and Fortnite is this generation's Halo.

That's what Anthem has to deal with VS Destiny and nothing of note.

To be fair though after Destiny 1 it's all kinda gone downhill.

Destiny 2 did ok at launch but once people saw through it then it lost like 80% of it's players within a few months and not to mention Forsaken hasn't sold well or done much to keep people playing it seems.

[kaelleria]

The problem is that nowadays, the market is dictated by """"content creators"""" e-stars who are blindly followed by a shitload of people unable to make their own view.

And Anthem is being bashed by those because "EA sucks", it is not being praised and even the neutral videos are quite rare. That's why I sadly expect that whatever the quality of the game, it may fail.

The majority of the videos I've seen have content creators liking the gameplay and having fun but are wary of technical issues,EA montization and endgame. If they don't fuck up the launch it will go a loooooooooong way in getting content creators on board.

[Skorpionss]

Your prediction is based on nothing. There's is. You don't make up numbers in an earnings call unless you want to go to jail.

They didn't make up any numbers, they expect it to sell that much, it's not a promise... it can very well only sell 1mil units, or 10mil just the same.

Also I don't see it selling more than 2-3mil first month tbh, the hype for it just isn't that high. Might boost the sale of Origin Access Premium thing...

[kaelleria]

Err the big difference with Destiny 1 is it was made by Bungie. Fans of Halo jumped all over it.

Not only was it by Bungie, but it came out 2 years after Halo 4 and 2 years before Halo 5 and was the bridge between the last gen of 360 and PS3 and One/PS4.

It was in a perfect position to succeed.

Right now, the market is flooded with loot shooters and battle royal games and Fortnite is this generation's Halo.

That's what Anthem has to deal with VS Destiny and nothing of note.

BFV sold 7.3m with it's controversy's. Shadow of the Tomb Raider sold 8. Not really sure why you think 5-6 is crazy.

Sales estimates are on the low end of AAA games.

[Shinzai]

To be fair though after Destiny 1 it's all kinda gone downhill.

Destiny 2 did ok at launch but once people saw through it then it lost like 80% of it's players within a few months and not to mention Forsaken hasn't sold well or done much to keep people playing it seems.

Right, and Battlefront 2 and Battlefield 5 have both underperformed. The multiplayer shooter market is over saturated and Anthem is being released in the middle of it, not to mention Apex has just popped up and grabbed an audience by being free.

Anthem's predicted sales figures are plausible, just not realistic in my opinion.

- - - Updated - - -

BFV sold 7.3m with it's controversy's. Shadow of the Tomb Raider sold 8. Not really sure why you think 5-6 is crazy.

Both of those are established franchises and I'll just reiterate that Battlefield 5 fell at least 1 million short of its internal predictions. You're just making me repeat things now.

[Eleccybubb]

Right, and Battlefront 2 and Battlefield 5 have both underperformed. The multilayer shooter market is over saturated and Anthem is being released in the middle of it, not to mention Apex has just popped up and grabbed an audience by being free.

Anthem's predicted sales figures are plausible, just not realistic in my opinion.

BF2s main issue was how it launched imo. Servers were fucked, P2W in lootboxes to the point Disney told them to stop it and a plethora of other features.

I mean EA are probably capable of making good games again. But for me these days their motto changed from "challenge everything" to "ruin everything".

[Shinzai]

BF2s main issue was how it launched imo. Servers were fucked, P2W in lootboxes to the point Disney told them to stop it and a plethora of other features.

I mean EA are probably capable of making good games again. But for me these days their motto changed from "challenge everything" to "ruin everything".

There's things like that to consider, where in comparison, the Anthem public demos and testing have had numerous issues that are apparently to be fixed post launch, some fixed at launch, etc.

It's also worth keeping in mind that Bioware's last big game, Inquisition sold 1 million units worldwide in its first week, being Bioware's biggest/fasting selling launch title ever. EA didn't put out any further official figures, but week 1 is always the largest chunk of first month sales, so it's safe to suggest it probably sold 2 million units in its first month.

[apelsinjuice]

Anthem endgame video