TS Harvey - Texas Gulf Coast better prepare NOW

[johnhoftb]

Galveston TX got hit by a Cat 4 Hurricane in 1900

Between 6000 to 120000 people died. Worst Natural disaster in US History.

Galveston TX does not sound a good place to be for this one

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1900_Galveston_hurricane

As someone who lives in the area, I have heard and read all about the 1900 storm and even visited a museum dedicated to it in Galveston.

There were three reasons why the 1900 storm is still the deadliest natural disaster in US history.

The first was the obvious. Galveston was a barrier island, which allowed the storm surge to just flow off the island.

Second, the path. Ike in 2008 followed a similar path (hitting Cuba and going then going for the Texas coast) which ended up pushing a large amount of Gulf of Mexico water into Galveston Bay.

Third, the National Weather Service. The NWS was in it's early years, and they went and pretty much called Cuban forecasts, you know the folks who've been getting hit by hurricanes for centuries by this point, fake news because they had a high opinion of their own forecasts. By the time the local office realised their error, it was too late, if I remember correctly the evening before the storm hit.

If evacuations had gone out faster, then much less lives would've been lost in the storm. The Galveston Bay area still would've been a mess, but that is obvious.

And then they raised parts of the island by a couple of stories to build the sea wall, which helped mitigate the damage from the 1915 storm.

Also, people really need to go read up on the surprise Cat 1 storm that hit Galveston in 1943. The same storm which not only convinced the US not to hide forcasts to appear week, but also started up the first flight which would become the Hurricane Hunter program.

Also, fixed the 10 pm CDT forecast.

- - - Updated - - -

Building standard has changed since then. Wind is not my area of specialty, but I assume buildings in Galveston are designed based on 150 mph basic wind speed. Maybe even 170 mph like Guam.

It wasn't the wind. It is never the wind in hurricanes.

It was the surge, the surge is always the deadliest part of a hurricane.

All that damage was from a wall of water.

[Xandrigity]

Oh damn that is one huge ass storm

http://www.cnn.com/2017/08/24/us/tro...vey/index.html

[Iamanerd]

Anyone getting hit down there, please stay safe or leave if possible! I have a cousin in the coast guard down there, this storm doesn't look good at all.

[Vapo]

Any live feed?

[Aurrora]

I thought it was only the female storms that do any real damage?

http://www.iflscience.com/environmen...le-hurricanes/

Or are you only taking this storm seriously because it's named Harvey?

[Allybeboba]

As someone who lives in the area, I have heard and read all about the 1900 storm and even visited a museum dedicated to it in Galveston.

There were three reasons why the 1900 storm is still the deadliest natural disaster in US history.

The first was the obvious. Galveston was a barrier island, which allowed the storm surge to just flow off the island.

Second, the path. Ike in 2008 followed a similar path (hitting Cuba and going then going for the Texas coast) which ended up pushing a large amount of Gulf of Mexico water into Galveston Bay.

Third, the National Weather Service. The NWS was in it's early years, and they went and pretty much called Cuban forecasts, you know the folks who've been getting hit by hurricanes for centuries by this point, fake news because they had a high opinion of their own forecasts. By the time the local office realised their error, it was too late, if I remember correctly the evening before the storm hit.

If evacuations had gone out faster, then much less lives would've been lost in the storm. The Galveston Bay area still would've been a mess, but that is obvious.

And then they raised parts of the island by a couple of stories to build the sea wall, which helped mitigate the damage from the 1915 storm.

Also, people really need to go read up on the surprise Cat 1 storm that hit Galveston in 1943. The same storm which not only convinced the US not to hide forcasts to appear week, but also started up the first flight which would become the Hurricane Hunter program.

Also, fixed the 10 pm CDT forecast.

- - - Updated - - -



It wasn't the wind. It is never the wind in hurricanes.

It was the surge, the surge is always the deadliest part of a hurricane.

All that damage was from a wall of water.

The seawall didn't exist in 1900. The 1900 storm is the reason the Galveston seawall was built. That contributed greatly to the damage of the 1900 storm. The areas that weren't protected the seawall during Ike were devastated. Places all around Stewart beach and Jamaca beach. Of course areas along the bay side of the were unprotected all along the the Strand district.

[johnhoftb]

The seawall didn't exist in 1900. The 1900 storm is the reason the Galveston seawall was built. That contributed greatly to the damage of the 1900 storm. The areas that weren't protected the seawall during Ike were devastated. Places all around Stewart beach and Jamaca beach. Of course areas along the bay side of the were unprotected all along the the Strand district.

The only area to be really spared by Ike along Galveston Bay was Texas City and that's because they have a system of levees and a dike to protect the plants and the city. But mostly the plants.

[apepi]

I thought it was only the female storms that do any real damage?

http://www.iflscience.com/environmen...le-hurricanes/

Or are you only taking this storm seriously because it's named Harvey?

Female storms do more damage because people take them less serious because they have female name.

[Kapadons]

In SA here, bunch of people in town from Corpus and other areas. My folks live in Port Aransas not far from Corpus. And the whole place has evacuated according to them. They are on their way.

My wife is freaking out tho. SA is shit for heavy rain fall management. 2 weeks ago it poured for like 3 hours and certain streets were completely flooded. I have a business about 30 miles south of SA that I'm more concerned about.

Hoping it's just rain and heavy winds.

[Stormspellz]

fake news! Its obviously another deep state obama created storm to make trump look bad!

but really hope those in the storms path stay safe

[johnhoftb]

Harvey is now a Cat 2 with sustained winds of 100 mph.

000
WTNT64 KNHC 250456
TCUAT4

Hurricane Harvey Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1200 AM CDT Fri Aug 25 2017

...12 AM CDT POSITION ESTIMATE...
...HARVEY STRENGTHENS TO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE...

Recent data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that
Harvey has strengthened. The estimated maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 100 mph (160 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CDT...0500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.5N 94.9W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

[Aurrora]

Female storms do more damage because people take them less serious because they have female name.

Maybe they should name them things like "Maelstrom of Despair" or "Swirling Death" and people would take them all more seriously.

[Alvito]

Just mother nature giving the state a little bath.

[johnhoftb]

Eye of Harvey now showing up on Brownsville radar.



- - - Updated - - -

http://www.khou.com/news/airbnb-offe...uees/467172837

Airbnb is waiving it's fees for short term lodging for evacuees and relief workers in San Antonio, Austin, Dallas, and surrounding areas due to Harvey.

[Ryzek]

I live in Brownsville, kinda glad its going more north than predicted earlier this week. Everyone in the path stay safe.

[johnhoftb]

Here's the 1 am advisory.

After this I have to head to bed to get ready in the morning. I'll have the 7 am advisory and 4 am graphics when I get up.

000
WTNT34 KNHC 250552
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Harvey Intermediate Advisory Number 19A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
100 AM CDT Fri Aug 25 2017

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE HARVEY STRENGTHENING...
...WINDS REACH 105 MPH...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.6N 95.1W
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SSE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield to High Island Texas

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield to Sargent Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Sargent to High Island Texas
* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South of the Mouth of the Rio Grande to Boca de Catan Mexico

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

In addition, interests in southwestern Louisiana should continue to
monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Harvey was located
near latitude 25.6 North, longitude 95.1 West. Harvey is moving
toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue with a decrease in forward speed
during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Harvey will
approach the middle Texas coast later today and make landfall Friday
night or early Saturday. Harvey is then likely to stall near or
just inland of the middle Texas coast through the weekend.

Reports from Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter planes indicate
that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165
km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible,
and Harvey is expected to become a major hurricane before it reaches
the middle Texas coast.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
miles (165 km).

The latest minimum central pressure recently reported by both
reconnaissance planes was 967 mb (28.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 15 to 25 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 35 inches over
the middle and upper Texas coast through next Wednesday. During
the same time period Harvey is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 7 to 15 inches in far south Texas and the Texas
Hill Country eastward through central and southwest Louisiana, with
accumulations of up to 7 inches extending into other parts of Texas
and the lower Mississippi Valley. Rainfall from Harvey will cause
devastating and life-threatening flooding.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore to Sargent...6 to 12 ft
Sargent to Jamaica Beach...5 to 8 ft
Port Mansfield to N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore...5 to 7 ft
Jamaica Beach to High Island...2 to 4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield...2 to 4 ft
High Island to Morgan City...1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the northeast of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are likely within the hurricane warning
area late Friday and Friday night, with tropical storm conditions
expected to first reach the coast in the hurricane warning area
later this morning. These conditions are likely to persist
into Saturday in portions of the hurricane and tropical storm
warning area.

SURF: Swells generated by Harvey will begin to affect the
Texas, Louisiana, and northeast Mexico coasts later this morning.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible across portions of the
middle and upper Texas coast on Friday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

[Xandrigity]

Female storms do more damage because people take them less serious because they have female name.

Female storms are only really bad for a week once a month, it is all about timing.

[Elba]

I would be curious to see how Trump would handle Katrina level destruction.

[Bakis]

I would be curious to see how Trump would handle Katrina level destruction.

Mr Twitler would use the same phrase as with the then missing sailors "too bad".

[Splenda]

One of my dearest friends lives in that area, she's traveling out of the city for safety.