Mega-Thread: Trump Focused Discussion

[Edge-]

So what's the consensus on Trumps press conference? I didn't watch it but my parents did and my father, who was an investment banker, said that Trumps speech didn't seem like it would instill much confidence in the markets.

Missed the intro but he apparently showed up, gave the intro and disappeared. Listened to Pence introduce some of the folks and they all delivered mostly common sense advise and let folks know that CDC site would be updated later tonight with further guidance.

Seemed like it went fine for the most part. Just didn't do a ton to chill folks out and Trump wanted to get back to rage-tweeting rather than stand in front of the press.

[Zan15]

So what's the consensus on Trumps press conference? I didn't watch it but my parents did and my father, who was an investment banker, said that Trumps speech didn't seem like it would instill much confidence in the markets.

he gave a quick speech and stomped out the second the first question was about him being tested

could not even instill confidence that he was safe and healthy. such a simple way to say "your president, your leader the one you depend on getting us through these hard times is as strong, safe and ready to fight day and night to fix the problems that we face....blah blah blah....."

He left pence sitting there not even knowing if his boss had been tested. The leader of the coronavirus response, being...left in the dark.


yup real confidence....builder.

[Breccia]

So what's the consensus on Trumps press conference?

Trump left without answering questions about his health, for one. Pence doesn't know if Trump has been tested. If I had sex with a porn star, I'd get tested. Oh, Pence also doesn't know if Trump has been tested for the coronavirus.

I also found a video of the conference. TheHill lies by omission. Trump didn't answer any questions. He basically dropped the Mike and fled the room, letting other people answer questions. Granted, I think Trump made the smart move here, I don't think he could answer most of them and I don't think he'd answer most of the rest honestly. But "smart move" is not the same as "good move". Trump has no good moves. Mr. Only I Can Fix It has put himself to blame for everything, and it's going badly. What's he going to do, admit it? He just accused the Saudis of conspiring with CNN for fuck's sake.

- - - Updated - - -

So CBS News got hold of five experts and asked them about a recession in 2020.

Former Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein said no.

Nouriel Roubini said 66%.

Mark Zandi said 65%. He said 50% last time they asked.

Kenneth Rogoff said 50/50.

Ethan Harris' response deserves special attention.

Why he's important: Many economists don't expect a recession this year, it's worth noting. Harris, head global economist at Bank of America, is one of them. He has long been regarded as one of the best forecasters on Wall Street and was one of the few economists at a major bank who predicted a recession in 2008.

What he's saying: Bank of America analysts have cut their expectations for economic growth this year. Harris now says the global economy will be the slowest it has been since 2009. But he thinks we can still narrowly avoid a recession. Overall, Bank of America is predicting 1.5% growth for the U.S. economy for the year, down from 2.3% in 2019.

Harris does see a big risk that a coronavirus-fueled slowdown could create "severe financial distress" for some companies and their workers. But he thinks the best remedy for that would be some kind of government assistance program, not lower interest rates courtesy of the Fed.

"The bottom line is that investors should not be counting on central banks to save us from the virus shock," Harris wrote in a note to investors last week.

If there is to be a recession, the sooner it starts, the more likely the people responsible are thrown out in elections.

"Okay, but what's with the bolded names?"

They correctly predicted the last recession.

[Dacien]

Completely random, but George Papadopoulos' wife I guess is divorcing him by announcing it on Twitter, and mentions that he's a monster, and that she was just pretending to be his wife.

Oh yeah, and Jake Tapper retweeted it.

Hard hitting news.

[Edge-]

Completely random, but George Papadopoulos' wife I guess is divorcing him by announcing it on Twitter, and mentions that he's a monster, and that she was just pretending to be his wife.

Oh yeah, and Jake Tapper retweeted it.

Hard hitting news.

Hard hitting news indeed. I bet Tapper's retweet finger needs a vacation.

It's almost like this is the kind of political news that happens when you have a reality TV president that surrounds himself with people qualified to be on reality TV.

[Dacien]

Hard hitting news indeed. I bet Tapper's retweet finger needs a vacation.

It's almost like this is the kind of political news that happens when you have a reality TV president that surrounds himself with people qualified to be on reality TV.

I can't quite buy into that argument, since we have high profile fame hounds from across the pond; it's just an ambition for some couples.

Spencer Pratt and Heidi Whatshername also come to mind.

[Edge-]

I can't quite buy into that argument, since we have high profile fame hounds from across the pond; it's just an ambition for some couples.

Spencer Pratt and Heidi Whatshername also come to mind.

Did either of them work for a presidential campaign and get embroiled in a case of international intelligence gathering relating to an investigation into a foreign countries meddling with an election?

Google says no, so I'm not sure why either is relevant?

[Dacien]

Did either of them work for a presidential campaign and get embroiled in a case of international intelligence gathering relating to an investigation into a foreign countries meddling with an election?

Google says no, so I'm not sure why either is relevant?

I'm just saying I think they'd be doing this whether there was a president Trump or not.

[Edge-]

I'm just saying I think they'd be doing this whether there was a president Trump or not.

Except that nobody would care if Papadopolous hadn't tried to parlay his controversial status as, "That fucking idiot 'coffee boy' who blabbed to a Australian diplomat" into some kind of celebrity as a young right wing influencer/celebrity.

It's just another reminder of the kinds of people Trump surrounded, and surrounds, himself with.

[Shadowferal]

Mike Pence says he doesn't know if Trump has been tested for coronavirus

Vice President Mike Pence said Monday that he does not know whether President Donald Trump had been tested for the novel coronavirus, even though Trump has been in close physical contact with members of Congress who recently opted to self-quarantine due to their proximity to someone with the virus.

"I really don't know the answer to the question, but we'll refer that question and we will get you an answer from the White House physician very quickly," Pence, who leads the administration's coronavirus task force, said during a White House press briefing Monday evening.

Trump, who was also at the briefing, was asked whether he's been tested but didn't answer, leaving the briefing room before answering any questions.

Pence also said that he has not been screened for the coronavirus, later adding that there has been "no recommendation" that he be tested.

[Breccia]

So Trump is now publicly saying we need a payroll tax cut to handle the coronavirus.

UPDATE: As expected by experts and coincidentally me, the Democrats aren't buying it, and more importantly, explain why not, with reasons that make sense.

Democrats argued that cutting the federal payroll tax would not help people who have lost their jobs in this sudden downturn, or who are part of the gig economy and do not get paid by the hour.

Asked if the payroll tax cut was dead on arrival on Capitol Hill, Rep. Greg Meeks (D-N.Y.) replied: “I think so.”

“I see folks who are being devastated, who are either losing their jobs temporarily or their hours are being cut, and there is nothing being done to help them get back on their feet,” Meeks said in an interview outside the Capitol.

“We have to figure out where we can get more revenue that can make a difference for them. Payroll taxes — I don’t know if that's’ the best way to go,” said Meeks, adding that rolling back the 2017 Trump tax cuts would raise more revenue to help affected workers.

Rep. Don Beyer (D-Va.), the top Democrat on the bipartisan Joint Economic Committee, said he's "very suspicious that more tax cuts are going to do anything concrete."

And Appropriations Committee Chairwoman Nita Lowey (D-N.Y.), who would have jurisdiction over pieces of any big spending package, called the tax cut a non-starter.

“Democrats are trying to respond to the urgency of the average working people around this country who are worried about how they’re going to feed their families because their business has closed. You look at restaurants, other service industries; so that’s the priority right now,” Lowey said Monday night.

Lowey noted that a payroll tax cut does nothing to help those who have lost their jobs as a result of the turmoil.

“Right now, if somebody loses their job as a dishwasher, I’m not sure the payroll tax cut will really help them.”

Trump and his economic team will provide more detail about their package on Tuesday. But Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and her fellow House Democrats are drafting their own stimulus package to help stave off a coronavirus-inspired recession this critical election year.

That Democratic package is unlikely to include a payroll tax cut, which she described as “tax cuts for major corporations.”

Instead, it is expected to include paid sick leave for workers who need to self-quarantine due to the coronavirus; enhanced unemployment insurance for those who lose their jobs from the economic impact related to the epidemic; and free coronavirus testing to help control its spread.

“We have to be very targeted about making sure we get money into working folks’ hands and, and not general tax cuts that benefit a lot of people, including some that don't really need to be benefited,” said Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), the Progressive Caucus co-chairwoman.

“We really need to be very specific about how we address gig workers, people who can't work from home, people who are sick who don't have insurance,” Jayapal continued. “We need to be looking at the most vulnerable populations and targeting those folks in terms of any plans that we pass.”

When asked about a payroll tax cut, House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Richard Neal (D-Mass.) reiterated that his desired way to stimulate the economy would be through infrastructure spending.

"We should have done something along the lines of expanding infrastructure six months ago when [Trump] said he was going to do it," Neal, who leads the powerful tax-writing committee, told reporters Monday evening.

Bolded for quoted emphasis. Bolded and blue for quoted emphasis and of course directly targeted barbs. As I keep saying, the coronavirus would have hurt regardless. As I have not kept saying because it just happened, the oil price drop would...um...hurt the oil industry I guess. But if the economy had been stronger, which Trump promised but did not provide, and if we had extra money, which Trump threw away, this would be less of a problem. A GDP of 3.5% would have still been over 3% afterwards.

Trump might try to sway the Democrats with additional things, but honestly, they have him where they want him. They'll probably work with Grassley and company, maybe. Trump might try to paint them as being bad for America by not doing this, but again, they're out in front of that. "These other options will help more and cost less," they're already saying, "without spraying random money all over the place and leaving us with the bill. We thought about listening to Trump, but then again, the country's not going bankrupt so his advice won't really help."

- - - Updated - - -

It's more likely that Trump hasn't been tested and he just doesn't want to admit that.

He has not been tested. WH admits it for him.

Incidentally, Trump is the target audience for this bug. He is old, in poor health, and anti-vaxxer, rumor has it he doses himself with drugs to stay awake which is a tax on your system, and of course, he shakes a lot of hands and hangs out in tight spaces with CPAC members. Granted, he has access to the best medical care on the planet, and if he does catch it, expect him to, well, let Pence handle it and tweet slightly less for a week, then appear again and deny everything.

EDIT:

[qutoe]As the trajectory of the outbreak continues, many people in the U.S. will at some point in time this year or next be exposed to this virus, and there’s a good chance many will become sick. The reason to stock up now is to kind of stick close to home.

The highest risk is those who are older and with underlying health conditions. I think if you're in one of those groups, separately or together, you need to be thinking towards what personal protections you want to take[/quote]

That's a direct quote from the CDC. They're telling Trump to stay home.

- - - Updated - - -

Pelosi, who...ugh...



Okay, she's clearly being insensitive. Boston canceled St. Patrick's Day today. So did Dublin. That's how bad this is. Ireland canceled.

Anyhow, announces Phase Two of coronavirus relief aid is on the way.

The package comes as an alternative to President Trump's favored economic proposal, which features an across-the-board payroll tax cut for America's workers. While the Democrats' legislation is not yet drafted, Pelosi and Schumer huddled Monday night with the various committee leaders working on it in an effort to tie up loose ends. And Pelosi said the legislation could be drafted — and maybe even receive a vote on the House floor — by the end of the week.

"We are putting it together; it's not like we just woke up this morning and started thinking about this," Pelosi said. "I don't know that we can be ready this week but we can introduce this week. We can introduce [it] and we may be ready [to vote on it], depending on CBO, depending on [legislative] counsel and how quickly they can [estimate the cost]."

That's a ton of brackets, TheHill. Couldn't you have, you know, given it in the original form? In a conversation maybe?

"Who tries to pass along news as a conversation?"

I dunno, I think it feels natural.

Pelosi noted that some of those ideas were plucked from the economic stimulus passed by Democrats under former President Obama in 2009, in the midst of the most severe downturn since the Great Depression. Now, as then, those provisions were selected because economists maintain they provide more aggressive stimulus — or bang-for-the-buck — than alternative proposals, by putting money directly into the pockets of working-class people who are more likely to spend it quickly.

"They're all more worried about Dow Jones than the Jones family," Pelosi said. "We are about the families."

That bolded. Ouch, that knife twisting bolded.

- - - Updated - - -

Adding one more because why not:

Meadoes is in self-quarantine. So Trump might have a Chief of Staff, he might exist, but he's already taking sick days.

[Shadowferal]

Pelosi does know how to turn a phrase.

[Dontrike]

^ Another vast right-wing conspiracy theory is born!

You haven't been paying attention, we've seen some of those with the virus moved from a secure location all the way to California that is less equipped to handle the situation. Do tell why that would be?

Why does Trump keep doing things and when people call them out you and others call them conspiracy theories?

[szechuan]

You haven't been paying attention

People already forgot that Trump proposed a state of emergency for the wall but not for coronavirus.

[Breccia]

Trump's diplomacy in action:


Trump speaks to Saudi crown prince about oil prices
-- TheHill article from one hour ago

Saudi Arabia pushes oil production to record high
-- TheHill article from 18 minutes ago

The current Saudi production is 9.7 million bbl per day. They're going for 12.3 starting April.

Unless, of course, either Russia caves, or Trump somehow finds something they want.

Meanwhile, Trump directly encourages currency manipulation by demanding the Fed cut rates to zero -- you don't have a rate of zero in a healthy economy -- to compete with other markets.

Also, Pentagon's Esper canceled his upcoming trips overseas to work on the military aspect of the coronavirus.

"What's wrong with that?"

Nothing. He's doing his job. I mean, what kind of idiot would, I dunno, go golfing while this threat was running rampant?

[szechuan]

Stable Genius

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/10/...ss-investment/

[PhaelixWW]

So what is the stock market doing today? Well, if you remember, yesterday the DOW lost over 2000 points.

Yes, that wasn't a typo. 2000.

Well, in after hours trading, the DOW regained a sizeable chunk of that and the markets today opened up about 600 points from yesterday. Within a few minutes the DOW had jumped up to over 900 up on the day.

Good news, right?

Well... no...

...because it appears that we're back into the negative for the day again.

[Breccia]

Stable Genius

Yeah yeah, and Nostradamus predicted cell phones.

Look, this is one of those "W was told about terrorists flying planes into buildings" situations. W was warned about many things. W is/was an idiot, but I don't see how he could possibly have reacted to every single possible threat he was given.

Trump was warned of this, specifically a coronavirus, years ahead of time by his own intelligence agencies. Again, he was probably warned about hundreds of other things too. No, he doesn't read. No, he doesn't understand. No, he doesn't pay attention. He watches FOX News and tweets. But for all we know, W, Obama, Trump, and Grover Cleveland were all warned about nasty fatal threats that never materialized or were stopped, possibly even by accident.

But.

That all ended when this specific threat materialized and Trump handwaved it Jan 22 "one person from China, contained, April Lol". Imagine if W had been told "sir, a commercial jet just did a 180 towards NYC and isn't answering" W would not have said "just one plane, September Lol". He would have gotten his best people on it immediately. In fact, that's almost certainly what he did do.

Yes, we could have done things differently with warnings given years ago. I mean, more specifically, not just "let's found the CDC!" "Sure thing, President Truman!" We've all made those mistakes on far smaller scales of course. But if you're told "the problem is starting right now, look where I'm pointing, see there it is" and you say "it's nothing, ignore it" then the problem is you.

Bill Gates is likely telling the truth. That sounds like the sort of thing he'd be involved with. Hell, I saw a conspiracy theory he designed it himself. Which is bullshit, of course, just ask Windows Vista. But just because he told Trump "you should invest in science and vaccines" and Trump said "I don't believe in either of those, also who are you? You look like Steven King. You guys know Steven King? Great guy. Wrote three books, I think it was. It, the Shining Redemption, and the Scooby Doo Mysteries" doesn't mean all that much anymore.

Trump ignored that suggestion, but he ignored a much more dire threat, and that's what matters.

[Breccia]

Normal Trump day.

Did that motherfucker just say "Do-Nothing Democrats" after coming back from a weekend golfing trip?

EDIT: Also:

This is likely going to get worse before it gets better
-- the Surgeon General, quoted in an article 33 mins old

Shut the fuck up and do your fucking job, you bloated fatass carcass of a man-child.

[Zan15]

Whatever this "Russia, Russia, Russia" meeting is, he's downplaying the hell out of it.

Trump, the man that fucked off to play golf during this coronavirus outbreak, is trying to give shit to Democrats for what he assumes will be a vacation.

Then invokes Reagan and someone that apparently worked for him to claim his Payroll Tax Cut is a great thing (as I understand it, it isn't?).

Normal Trump day.

Problem is the consumer still has no problem spending money.

Giving them more does not fix today's problems and might do very little if people start losing jobs en'mass.


What it does do is balloon problems down the road.
Debt up up up.
Social Security funding problems bigger bigger.
Medicare will need even more than the 300 billion it gets from general taxes (non payroll- yes guys you already pay for socialist healthcare Medicare for All.... just for a select group of people)

The bigger problem is people fearing:

A- they can't go to work. They don't have sick time. They don't get days off. They fear losing their job because they live paycheck to paycheck. Pissing off employer because they take time off. etc etc

B- They can't afford getting sick. No insurance, poor insurance, too much deductible/out of pocket.