Mega-Thread: Trump Focused Discussion

[Fugus]

DOW Down 796.56.

Might break 1,000 at this rate.

[Breccia]

Hmm, is the Coronavirus going to be Trump's Hurricane Katrina?

Honestly, I hope the debates bring up that Trump already fucked up his fair share of hurricanes. How many people died while he was tossing paper towels? How much aid did he withhold?

That said...maybe. Trump bragged about the bigly trade deals he could make. The second the deal he claimed to have with China took its first baby steps, the rules changed. No, China is not celebrating the loss of thousands of people. But they are going to use it as an excuse to refuse to buy more than they can afford -- which they weren't going to anyhow, difference is now they have a valid reason. Oh, and add this:

Pompeo Blasts China, Iran for Response to Virus Outbreak

There is no reason to believe China has the desire, let alone the ability, to bend over backwards to help Trump with his trade deal. Rightly or wrongly, China will respond to that direct insult with "well fuck you too" and just not honor their agreement.

I've posted multiple times over the years that Trump's words and actions are crippling his own economy. That's still true. Problem is, he's running out of time to fix it. If China said, right now, "we want to double our US crop imports and pay for them with cash right now" there's still time in the season for farmers to get in on that action. Granted, even if farmers sold double what they sold the last two years, they'd still end up with a net loss, but at this point, who's counting? Instead, China's saying nothing but "sure" to the vague promises and poorly defined values they shook hands on, before everyone got sick and died.

And I don't think anyone on these forums thinks Trump will reduce tariffs to China during their troubling times. Not without repayment, which again, China both won't and can't offer.

So barring a sudden change in course, farmers are looking at slim trade agreement with an unwilling China, the weather, and their increasing debt. Buying an extra-large pile of seeds and hoping China will both recover and also honor their contract is an option. But everyone has their breaking point. At what point are bankruptcies getting too high, debt getting too high, China getting less willing to buy, does a farmer say "this isn't working"? The USDA just released their farming expectations, which is basically "all crops are up in 2020", but the report is based on selling to, yep, China. Oh, and *ahem* this:



That right side. The USDA is admitting crops were down during Trump's tenure. They're hoping they increase, based on a promise that no longer holds water.

"That just came out?"

Yeah, there's a bunch of big farm stuff this time of year because seasons. And I haven't even touched this yet:

For producers hoping for a break from weather extremes in 2020, former Illinois state climatologist Jim Angel has bad news for you. Flooding is underway in the Southeast U.S., and the National Weather Service expects above-average precipitation for that region for the next three months -- "a recipe for disaster," as Angel put it. DTN's own Senior Ag Meteorologist Bryce Anderson has noted that this spring has a high potential for additional flooding and delayed planting.

Angel highlighted the trend of rising global temperatures over the last half century, focusing on the increase in winter temperatures and warmer summer nighttime temperatures, which have largely driven that trend in North America. These warmer winters can cause insect and disease pressures to move farther north, and warmer summer nights can be hard on crop and livestock health, he noted.

As temperatures rise, so does the water vapor held by the atmosphere, which is why wetter conditions have been so prominent in recent years, Angel said.

Looking further ahead, Angel posted the Climate Science Special Report's most recent predictions for environmental conditions in the latter half of the 21st century, which include increased moisture in the winter and spring months and a continued rise in the occurrence of violent, high-rainfall events. He ticked off the agricultural disruptions excessive rainfall can cause, including: reduced fieldwork days, planting delays, replanting, prevented planting, soil compaction, drainage issues, nutrient loss and more plant disease.

"We're also worried about a phenomenon called 'false springs,'" he said. "That's when a mild winter fools vegetation into breaking dormancy early." Currently, the National Phenology Network's spring leaf index places vegetation in the Southern states at 20 days ahead of normal in spring leaf development.

Bolded for a hybrid of "this is what happened last year, so we already know what that means" and "Chinese hoax my ass".

The weather is not Trump's fault, no matter how much he wants to claim he can change the weather he can't. But dealing with the weather is his problem. And compounding lie after lie won't help. And eventually, it's every farmer for himself.

I seem to have migrated topics. Let's refresh. There is such a thing as "economic pandemic" and we're looking at it.

Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, estimates the outbreak will reduce growth during the first three months of 2020 by six-tenths of a percentage point to 1.3%, more than his previous forecast of a four- to five-tenths of a point. The halt to Boeing’s production of its 737 Max airliner also is set to significantly hurt the economy this quarter.

The epidemic’s spread in recent days has sharply increased the number of cases in China, South Korea, Italy and Iran. The number of infections worldwide is approaching 80,000, most of them in China, and the death toll now tops 2,600. There have been 35 cases in the U.S.

I'm sure they meant to write 53.

The outbreak is taking a growing toll on the U.S. economy, chiefly through reduced travel and tourism, Zandi says. Also, manufacturers will likely export less to Asia and Europe as demand there slackens. And lower imports from those regions are expected to lead to shortages of intermediate parts and retail products in the U.S., along with higher prices that curb consumer spending.

The construction industry is also likely to be affected, because it imports 30% of its products from China, more than from any other country, says Richard Branch, chief economist of Dodge Data and Analytics. Unless the virus is quickly contained, he says, "supplies will continue to tighten – causing building costs to escalate and potential delays or cancellations of projects."

For all of 2020, Zandi predicts the virus will trim growth by two-tenths of a percentage point to 1.7%. But if the outbreak becomes a global pandemic – a risk Zandi now puts at 40%, up from 20% – that almost certainly would result in a U.S. and global recession, he says.

The bolded is important, because it's based on what's happened so far. This is yet another indicator the coronavirus will combine with Trump's toxic words and actions and push GDP growth under 2% during a goddam election year. The bolded and red is fucking horrifying. And there's nothing Trump can do -- even if there are no more cases in the US forever, if the world suffers, US business suffers, and it was already stagnant.

Trump can't negotiate a trade deal with a sick world. He'll have to come to the podium yet again to blame everyone who isn't him...and he's cried wolf too many times.

Let's hope there isn't a pandemic that kills thousands upon thousands and focus on the here and now. Basically every analyst in the country who isn't directly working for Trump says the same: lower exports, lower imports, lower business, worse growth.

And I'd like to finish by addressing the responses to Trump's tweets that said "If Clinton was President, we'd all be sick".

*ahem*

If Clinton was President, we'd all have health care. You'd better hope it doesn't spread here. The flu killed 16,000 Americans last year. The flu hospitalized 280,000 people last year. The coronavirus is objectively worse if you catch it. And Trump told you to stop buying health care. You can try to hide from the facts by creating conjectures and hyperbole, but you better send your family thoughts and prayers if this spreads in the US. Because the thing that will make this killer bug spread the fastest are close groups of poor, unwashed, anti-vaxxer elderly.

Katrina and the coronavirus share a few things in common: they're economy wreckers, the people in charge will do more reactions than prevention, and the people most likely to be affected probably don't have the right insurance. The big difference right now is, with Katrina, you could drive inland and wait it out. You can't do that this time. And the man in charge is intentionally ignorant on health and medicine, was an anti-vaxxer until a motherfucking measles outbreak made his numbers look bad, thinks a virus will be stopped by the month of April, uses a Sharpie to try to move a goddam storm, and until literally last month, we didn't have a head of FEMA. And since he already proved what he feels are his strengths -- the ability to make deals -- is now compromised to the point of irrelevance, his weaknesses now matter. And they are as glaringly obvious as they are many.

Are we sick and tired of winning yet?

[Belize]

DOW Down 796.56.

Might break 1,000 at this rate.

Let's goooooooo. Let's lose 1000 points 2 days in a row.

[Zan15]

DOW Down 796.56.

Might break 1,000 at this rate.

Damn that was one hell of a dead cat bounce while I was sleeping. ouches.


Wow only 2.3% higher than the Jan 2018 peak when tax cuts and other trump "economic" programs started. After inflation, taxes and fees...that's effectively zero growth in 2+ years.





On a side note hypocrites have finally realized that they actually benefit from this little program....as they support people who want to trash it.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/th...=mw_latestnews

The Affordable Care Act is more popular now than when Obama was president

Some 55% of Americans support the ACA, a record high since the law went into effect a decade ago, according to a new report by the Kaiser Family Foundation, while 37% of the 130,000 respondents in the nationally representative poll hold unfavorable views.
In 2010, when Obamacare was enacted, 46% of the public had a favorable opinion of it and 40% had an unfavorable view. Kaiser, a San Francisco-based nonprofit focused on health policy; it has conducted monthly public opinion polls on the ACA since it was enacted in March 2010

[Breccia]

DOW Down 796.56.

That's all of this year, and now looking at July. Two days, six months of growth gone.

That one thread we had was based on a peak in Jan 2018, that peak was 26,616. We're at 27,227 now. One more day like this, and we will have to rename the thread, since Trump will have lost all of 2019.

I don't think 3 days in a row will happen, just so we're clear. I just want to point out how much we've lost.

[Fugus]

That's all of this year, and now looking at July. Two days, six months of growth gone.

That one thread we had was based on a peak in Jan 2018, that peak was 26,616. We're at 27,227 now. One more day like this, and we will have to rename the thread, since Trump will have lost all of 2019.

I don't think 3 days in a row will happen, just so we're clear. I just want to point out how much we've lost.

He hits 26,000 he will have lost all growth since their stuff was even signed into law.

[Zan15]

Let's hope there isn't a pandemic that kills thousands upon thousands and focus on the here and now. Basically every analyst in the country who isn't directly working for Trump says the same: lower exports, lower imports, lower business, worse growth.

And I'd like to finish by addressing the responses to Trump's tweets that said "If Clinton was President, we'd all be sick".

*ahem*

If Clinton was President, we'd all have health care. You'd better hope it doesn't spread here. The flu killed 16,000 Americans last year. The flu hospitalized 280,000 people last year. The coronavirus is objectively worse if you catch it. And Trump told you to stop buying health care. You can try to hide from the facts by creating conjectures and hyperbole, but you better send your family thoughts and prayers if this spreads in the US. Because the thing that will make this killer bug spread the fastest are close groups of poor, unwashed, anti-vaxxer elderly.

Katrina and the coronavirus share a few things in common: they're economy wreckers, the people in charge will do more reactions than prevention, and the people most likely to be affected probably don't have the right insurance. The big difference right now is, with Katrina, you could drive inland and wait it out. You can't do that this time. And the man in charge is intentionally ignorant on health and medicine, was an anti-vaxxer until a motherfucking measles outbreak made his numbers look bad, thinks a virus will be stopped by the month of April, uses a Sharpie to try to move a goddam storm, and until literally last month, we didn't have a head of FEMA. And since he already proved what he feels are his strengths -- the ability to make deals -- is now compromised to the point of irrelevance, his weaknesses now matter. And they are as glaringly obvious as they are many.

Are we sick and tired of winning yet?

Bad part is all those people think you can just walk in and get "Obamacare" whenever you want it (another myth spread by fox and trump). Not true at all, you can only do that during open enrollment and that time is over. There are only a handful of reasons and hopefully the big one (losing your job) does not end up being one of them.....

So all those people who were cheering they no longer had to be forced to purchase insurance....those healthy individuals who don't need all that fancy healthcare cause they be stronk…..better hope this dies out once warmer weather gets here.

The second group of people who will get a shock are those who brought the new Trumpcare plans....with their limited benefits and maxes. Wait till they see what they owe after those little cheap policies go poof not to mention those fly by night insurance companies go belly up because they financially do not have the reserves to deal with a utilization bump that would occur in a limited outbreak.

[D Luniz]

Honestly, I hope the debates bring up that Trump already fucked up his fair share of hurricanes. How many people died while he was tossing paper towels? How much aid did he withhold?

That said...maybe. Trump bragged about the bigly trade deals he could make. The second the deal he claimed to have with China took its first baby steps, the rules changed. No, China is not celebrating the loss of thousands of people. But they are going to use it as an excuse to refuse to buy more than they can afford -- which they weren't going to anyhow, difference is now they have a valid reason. Oh, and add this:

Pompeo Blasts China, Iran for Response to Virus Outbreak

There is no reason to believe China has the desire, let alone the ability, to bend over backwards to help Trump with his trade deal. Rightly or wrongly, China will respond to that direct insult with "well fuck you too" and just not honor their agreement.

I've posted multiple times over the years that Trump's words and actions are crippling his own economy. That's still true. Problem is, he's running out of time to fix it. If China said, right now, "we want to double our US crop imports and pay for them with cash right now" there's still time in the season for farmers to get in on that action. Granted, even if farmers sold double what they sold the last two years, they'd still end up with a net loss, but at this point, who's counting? Instead, China's saying nothing but "sure" to the vague promises and poorly defined values they shook hands on, before everyone got sick and died.

And I don't think anyone on these forums thinks Trump will reduce tariffs to China during their troubling times. Not without repayment, which again, China both won't and can't offer.

So barring a sudden change in course, farmers are looking at slim trade agreement with an unwilling China, the weather, and their increasing debt. Buying an extra-large pile of seeds and hoping China will both recover and also honor their contract is an option. But everyone has their breaking point. At what point are bankruptcies getting too high, debt getting too high, China getting less willing to buy, does a farmer say "this isn't working"? The USDA just released their farming expectations, which is basically "all crops are up in 2020", but the report is based on selling to, yep, China. Oh, and *ahem* this:



That right side. The USDA is admitting crops were down during Trump's tenure. They're hoping they increase, based on a promise that no longer holds water.

"That just came out?"

Yeah, there's a bunch of big farm stuff this time of year because seasons. And I haven't even touched this yet:



Bolded for a hybrid of "this is what happened last year, so we already know what that means" and "Chinese hoax my ass".

The weather is not Trump's fault, no matter how much he wants to claim he can change the weather he can't. But dealing with the weather is his problem. And compounding lie after lie won't help. And eventually, it's every farmer for himself.

I seem to have migrated topics. Let's refresh. There is such a thing as "economic pandemic" and we're looking at it.



I'm sure they meant to write 53.



The bolded is important, because it's based on what's happened so far. This is yet another indicator the coronavirus will combine with Trump's toxic words and actions and push GDP growth under 2% during a goddam election year. The bolded and red is fucking horrifying. And there's nothing Trump can do -- even if there are no more cases in the US forever, if the world suffers, US business suffers, and it was already stagnant.

Trump can't negotiate a trade deal with a sick world. He'll have to come to the podium yet again to blame everyone who isn't him...and he's cried wolf too many times.

Let's hope there isn't a pandemic that kills thousands upon thousands and focus on the here and now. Basically every analyst in the country who isn't directly working for Trump says the same: lower exports, lower imports, lower business, worse growth.

And I'd like to finish by addressing the responses to Trump's tweets that said "If Clinton was President, we'd all be sick".

*ahem*

If Clinton was President, we'd all have health care. You'd better hope it doesn't spread here. The flu killed 16,000 Americans last year. The flu hospitalized 280,000 people last year. The coronavirus is objectively worse if you catch it. And Trump told you to stop buying health care. You can try to hide from the facts by creating conjectures and hyperbole, but you better send your family thoughts and prayers if this spreads in the US. Because the thing that will make this killer bug spread the fastest are close groups of poor, unwashed, anti-vaxxer elderly.

Katrina and the coronavirus share a few things in common: they're economy wreckers, the people in charge will do more reactions than prevention, and the people most likely to be affected probably don't have the right insurance. The big difference right now is, with Katrina, you could drive inland and wait it out. You can't do that this time. And the man in charge is intentionally ignorant on health and medicine, was an anti-vaxxer until a motherfucking measles outbreak made his numbers look bad, thinks a virus will be stopped by the month of April, uses a Sharpie to try to move a goddam storm, and until literally last month, we didn't have a head of FEMA. And since he already proved what he feels are his strengths -- the ability to make deals -- is now compromised to the point of irrelevance, his weaknesses now matter. And they are as glaringly obvious as they are many.

Are we sick and tired of winning yet?

Unless the reduced turnout due to virus fears depressed the voter turnout....

The GOP has said many times how lower voter turnout is to their advantage.

[Breccia]

Unless the reduced turnout due to virus fears depressed the voter turnout

Two things.

One, yes sick people might just not vote, but Trump's voters are more likely to be infected because they're older and less likely to have insurance.

Two, this OP ED piece screams @Skroe but more importantly suggests that Republican voters, sick of Trump, might sit this election out because they can't vote for him or the Sanders/Norton ticket.

"Norton the actor who plays the Hulk, or Norton Anti-Virus?"

Pick one. Honestly, a cardboard box has more stage charisma than Pence. Anyhow, Trump is already depressing his own voter turnout by his words and actions. As soon as the Democrat infighting ends, we'll see a rally, as Trump's words and actions are thrown in his fat orange face, and he's force to defend his record on live fucking TV.

Honestly, I'm still worried about Trump attacking Iran to salvage his tenure but...I don't know that he can anymore. The House and Senate warned him, and now, Iran has an outbreak. Who declares war on a sick country? And even if you did, does that help your poll numbers? "This just in, Trump kicks sick country while they're down, film at 11."

[Zan15]

That's all of this year, and now looking at July. Two days, six months of growth gone.

That one thread we had was based on a peak in Jan 2018, that peak was 26,616. We're at 27,227 now. One more day like this, and we will have to rename the thread, since Trump will have lost all of 2019.

I don't think 3 days in a row will happen, just so we're clear. I just want to point out how much we've lost.

He hits 26,000 he will have lost all growth since their stuff was even signed into law.

Its ok he is still doing better'er than Obama right, right? hello?



https://www.macrotrends.net/2482/sp5...e-by-president
https://www.macrotrends.net/2481/sto...e-by-president

As of yesterday

Dow

Obama-61.9%
Trump- 40.8%

Obama +51.7% better performance.....fifty...percent...better....


Broarder Market SP500

Obama - 65.4%
Trump - 41.6%

Obama + 57.2% better performance....yikes...still fifty percent better.


Shows you the difference in real economic plans vs just govt spending and corporate welfare giveaways.

Bad part for Trump, Obama's best stock market performance streak under his administration is coming up.. He ended up 180%+ and he is only at 65% so far.

Trump has a shit ton of work to do to even keep up, yet alone beat him in this metric. The metric Trump only seems to care about and take credit for when its doing well.


I wonder where all those "my 401k is doing better under trump" posters will be this week??

[Zaydin]

DOW Down 796.56.

Might break 1,000 at this rate.

Two single 1000 point loss days in a row? That can't be a good sign for the economy.

[Edge-]

https://thehill.com/changing-america...-control-in-us

Who even needs a plan? Everything will be fine with the corona virus. It'll go away. Habeeb me.

[Fugus]

DOW Down 896.23

[The Butt Witch]

*Coronavirus crisis causes worldwide stocks to drop*
*America is also affected by this, especially since a lot of American companies do business with Chinese companies*
Leftists: DAMN YOU, TRUMP!

[Breccia]

Two single 1000 point loss days in a row? That can't be a good sign for the economy.

Well it's not 1000, it's...(checks news) Tom Selleck on a dirt bike, it's 900 down. Fuck me right in the NASDAQ.

And, no, it's not good at all. Remember, the stock market is a predictive force. You sell, or don't buy, what you expect to drop. Boeing, for example, done fucked up, and people are selling because they expect Boeing will lose sales in the future, making them a bad investment. If you expected them to recover, you'd keep your stock, or more realistically, buy now that it's cheap.

The US, like the world, is expecting things will get worse for a while. It could take months for this two-day drop to recover back to square one.

[Edge-]

*Coronavirus crisis causes worldwide stocks to drop*
*America is also affected by this*
Leftists: DAMN YOU, TRUMP!

I think you're missing the point.

Trump regularly claims personal credit for the stock market when it's doing well. If he's voluntarily deciding to claim that credit, that means he also gets credit when it drops.

It's only fair.

[NineSpine]

*Coronavirus crisis causes worldwide stocks to drop*
*America is also affected by this*
Leftists: DAMN YOU, TRUMP!

If you think that America's perception as being incredibly underprepared and disinterested in preparing isnt playing a role, that's cute.

[Zan15]

HAHAHAHAHAHA



Also something I forgot to mention last time: while the WH has asked Congress for funding, already both Schumer and Pelosi have responded that the request was (a) long overdue and (b) grossly inadequate.

Related: so, if Trump has all this National Security Lol money he can put towards the Wall, why can't he use that to fight the coronavirus? I mean, <sarcasm>the virus will be dead by April because of the temperature</sarcasm> right? What's the harm in putting the Wall off a couple months? He asked for $2.5 billion, how much has he put towards the Wall? Is it more than $2.5 billion? I think it's more than $2.5 billion.

Didn't the last 3 budgets Trump proposed call for funding for the CDC and associated health programs/reactionary programs to be cut?

https://www.mic.com/p/trumps-fund-sl...virus-21769152

The Trump administration has done exactly the opposite: It has slashed funding for the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and its infectious disease research. For fiscal year 2020, Trump proposed cutting the CDC budget by $1.3 billion, nearly 20% below the 2019 level.

In 2018, Trump tried to cut $65 million from this budget – a 10% reduction. In 2019, he sought a 19% reduction. For 2020, he proposed to cut federal spending on emerging infectious and zoonotic diseases by 20%.



At least Congress kept him in check, but still could not keep funding up

Congress reinstated most of this funding, with bipartisan support. But the overall level of appropriations for relevant CDC programs is still 10% below what the U.S. spent in 2016, adjusting for inflation.

Even worse, in 2018 the administration disbanded its own global health security team, which was supposed to make the U.S. more resilient to the threat of epidemics. This unfortunate decision was part of a reorganization that former national security adviser John Bolton carried out shortly after arriving at the White House.

[Fugus]

*Coronavirus crisis causes worldwide stocks to drop*
*America is also affected by this*
Leftists: DAMN YOU, TRUMP!

Well, Trump also killed our methods for combating such drops with his lower rate, QE, and already massive deficit. Making it impact harder.


Also:

Conservatives: "This year is 2020, thank you Trump it would never be this high without you, it would only be maybe 1920 without you".....

[Breccia]

Who even needs a plan?

Trump is an anti-vaxxer and science denier. Honestly, the CDC needs to do their nonpartisan job and ignore everything Trump says. He's proven to be worse than useless on this topic and disasters in general. I just hope the people who he fired, whose jobs he cut, or who quit in disgust weren't the best people there.