Mega-Thread: Trump Focused Discussion

[Paranoid Android]

Trump moments ago: "I've been briefed on every contingency you could possibly imagine. Many contingencies. A lot of positive. Different numbers, all different numbers, very large numbers, and some small numbers too."

Classic dementia word salad. Nonsense from a broken brain.

https://twitter.com/SpiroAgnewGhost/...734564865?s=19

I concur.

Amazing this moron is President. He would never be in any leadership position in any other circumstance.

[Edge-]

https://twitter.com/SpiroAgnewGhost/...734564865?s=19

I concur.

Amazing this moron is President. He would never be in any leadership position in any other circumstance.

If he managed to make that into a coherent sentence it would be more fitting for Sesame Street.

But even Sesame Street would send that line back to their writers because they want to help kids learn English.

[Breccia]

So a while ago DeVos intentionally made it easier for loaners to issue predatory student loans and get away with it -- actually, it was retroactive, because the rule made it harder for students to challenge the predatory nature, even if the loan pre-dated her appointment.

The Senate votes tomorrow on if it stands. For whatever reason, the Senate only needs a simple majority to strike down a WH rule. It's called the Congressional Review Act. So, only one or two R's will force the issue.

[Zaydin]

So a while ago DeVos intentionally made it easier for loaners to issue predatory student loans and get away with it -- actually, it was retroactive, because the rule made it harder for students to challenge the predatory nature, even if the loan pre-dated her appointment.

The Senate votes tomorrow on if it stands. For whatever reason, the Senate only needs a simple majority to strike down a WH rule. It's called the Congressional Review Act. So, only one or two R's will force the issue.

Just the unqualified hack trying to protect her bottom line considering DeVos makes her money on fraudulent for-profit schools and screwing over students.

[Breccia]

Trump endorses "Coach Tommy Tuberville", the man running against Sessions.

I want everyone to remember how Trump repays loyalty.

- - - Updated - - -

WH invites tech leaders to itself to discuss coronavirus.

"What's wrong with that?"

Nothing. This is an all-hands-on-deck situation. Trump already met with other business leaders too. Which leads me to my point: if the coronavirus is "just one person from China, contained, April Lol" why is he meeting with almost everyone to deal with it? The actions aren't matching the words. Possibly because he's lying.

[Shadowferal]

Nothing. This is an all-hands-on-deck situation. Trump already met with other business leaders too. Which leads me to my point: if the coronavirus is "just one person from China, contained, April Lol" why is he meeting with almost everyone to deal with it? The actions aren't matching the words. Possibly because he's lying.

Maybe he has it and wants to share the love.
To be honest, that would encourage a sense of urgency with everyone there.

[Breccia]

Coronavirus cases in the US hit a thousand. A fucking thousand.

We have it totally under control. It’s one person coming in from China. We have it under control. It’s going to be just fine

[Sorshen]

US is like 2 weeks behind a disaster at this point.

[Breccia]

US is like 2 weeks behind a disaster at this point.

It's, um....it's bad. Yeah. Honestly, it could be worse. Trump drew a lot of flak for a slow start, handwaving it with "just one person from China, contained, April Lol". But we already had federal and state agencies that have been doing this for a while, and who didn't need his specific approval to take strong measures. For a while, it looked like Pence was getting shit done too, but it's Trump taking all those WH meetings, and if Pence was really in charge, Trump wouldn't have started that one press conference, said everything was great, and left without questions while Mike was left behind guessing if Trump was tested. People in charge aren't handed the mic like that. They introduce people themselves. And I'm not sure what he's done since.

The first issue the US had was economical. It's probably still the strongest. Look, no disrespect to the twenty-seven who...(checks news) thirty-two who have died, their friends, and their families. All loss of innocent life is tragic. And there will be others. But the death count is still, ugh I hate saying this, "only" a few dozen. The US economy has lost trillions. And even if nobody else dies (that'd be nice), we're going to lose a lot of trade. That's why the stock market dropped like a rock, even though the GDP reports aren't out and the job market was, erm, suspiciously high. That's why the Fed is slashing rates.

The fallout will include lives lost, no question. And at least for now, some people will go broke being tested or treated. But we're going to see jobs lost, too, far beyond those who get fired for taking too many sick days. You say we're two weeks behind a disaster, and you could be right. But we're also a month behind. And two months behind. And three months behind. And...

[Omega10]

It's, um....it's bad. Yeah. Honestly, it could be worse. Trump drew a lot of flak for a slow start, handwaving it with "just one person from China, contained, April Lol". But we already had federal and state agencies that have been doing this for a while, and who didn't need his specific approval to take strong measures. For a while, it looked like Pence was getting shit done too, but it's Trump taking all those WH meetings, and if Pence was really in charge, Trump wouldn't have started that one press conference, said everything was great, and left without questions while Mike was left behind guessing if Trump was tested. People in charge aren't handed the mic like that. They introduce people themselves. And I'm not sure what he's done since.

The first issue the US had was economical. It's probably still the strongest. Look, no disrespect to the twenty-seven who...(checks news) thirty-two who have died, their friends, and their families. All loss of innocent life is tragic. And there will be others. But the death count is still, ugh I hate saying this, "only" a few dozen. The US economy has lost trillions. And even if nobody else dies (that'd be nice), we're going to lose a lot of trade. That's why the stock market dropped like a rock, even though the GDP reports aren't out and the job market was, erm, suspiciously high. That's why the Fed is slashing rates.

The fallout will include lives lost, no question. And at least for now, some people will go broke being tested or treated. But we're going to see jobs lost, too, far beyond those who get fired for taking too many sick days. You say we're two weeks behind a disaster, and you could be right. But we're also a month behind. And two months behind. And three months behind. And...

We are between 14 and 17 days behind Italy in how fast the virus is catching on in the US. To predict what is likely to happen in the US by 03/28/2020, 2 and a half weeks from now, look at what is happening in Italy now. And the virus does not seem to have peaked in Italy.

[Breccia]

We are between 14 and 17 days behind Italy in how fast the virus is catching on in the US. To predict what is likely to happen in the US by 03/28/2020, 2 and a half weeks from now, look at what is happening in Italy now. And the virus does not seem to have peaked in Italy.

Oh no no, not disputing that at all. I'm just adding that people who don't get sick will still feel the effects for months yet.

I mean, the National Guard is mobilized in my state. Shit's about to get fucky.

[Omega10]

Oh no no, not disputing that at all. I'm just adding that people who don't get sick will still feel the effects for months yet.

I mean, the National Guard is mobilized in my state. Shit's about to get fucky.

Got it. Reread it and I get it now. Thanks for the clarification. And in a morbid kind of way I like the bolded sentence*.



* Note... this does not mean I am rooting for the virus. Far from it, especially since I live very near infected residents.

[Benggaul]

Coronavirus cases in the US hit a thousand. A fucking thousand.

Holy shit. It was somewhere around 600 yesterday. That's a big leap.

[jonnysensible]

Its going to double nearly every 2/3 days if Italy is anything to go by. 31 percent kill rate on the over 80's

[ati87]

Holy shit. It was somewhere around 600 yesterday. That's a big leap.

Because on avg a single person infects 2-3 people.
This is why the Trump administration first honest response about how they can not guarantee an affordable vaccine was/is stupid. Since everything else you say afterwards sounds like BS.

[Breccia]

Speaking of bailouts:

Farmers are asking the House and Senate to continue farm aid packages.

UPDATE: There's more to the situation, and big surprise, it's more bad news.

As U.S. President Donald Trump touted the signing of a U.S.-China trade deal in January, he told cash-strapped farmers they would soon need bigger tractors and “a little more land” to meet additional Chinese demand for U.S. agricultural goods.

His administration assured farmers that they would no longer need the billions in aid the government had provided to offset their losses from the trade war Trump launched with China in 2017.

Now, with Chinese buying of most farm goods still lagging their 2017 levels, the administration says it may extend the farm subsidy program for a third year - money farmers say they still desperately need. Such an extension would expand what has already been a massive industry bailout.

The about-face reflects vagaries in the so-called Phase 1 trade deal: China did not commit to a timeline for ramping up imports of U.S. farm goods to make the 2020 goal of $36.5 billion, up from $24 billion in 2017. It also underscores economic uncertainty as China slowly reopens ports, roads and factories amid a coronavirus outbreak that has killed thousands of people and spread globally.

Demand for U.S. soybeans and sorghum have also been curbed by another deadly disease - African swine fever - that has killed millions of pigs and shrunk China’s massive herd by about half since August of 2018, according to expert estimates. The crops are staple ingredients in animal feed.

Two quick things here.

One, the lower-quality soybeans from South America make perfectly good animal feed.

Two, yes, it's worth noting that the deal with China is now threatened by two diseases.

Now get ready for some bolding for emphasis!

Although the U.S. Midwest planting season is still about a month away, the slow ramp-up of Chinese purchases means farmers need guarantees of government aid now in order to invest in seeds and fertilizer and secure bank loans.

“The rubber is not hitting the road like we have been told it would,” said Doug Schroeder, chairman of the Illinois Soybean Association, who grows soybeans and seed corn on his 4,000 acre farm near Mahomet, Illinois.

The administration devoted $16 billion to trade aid, much of that in direct payments to farmers, up from $12 billion in 2018. Trump, who is up for reelection in November, said in a Feb. 21 tweet that farmers would have more aid in 2020 if they need it.

The trade subsidies represents one of the biggest-ever farm sector bailouts not related to a natural disaster. For perspective, the trade-aid that farmers have received is nearly triple what the Treasury Department estimated it ultimately cost taxpayers to bail out the auto industry during the financial crisis of 2008.

For many farmers, the aid represents both a lifeline and an awkward reality of government dependence.

“It’s uncomfortable and embarrassing to talk about it, because the grocery store doesn’t get this kind of help; the dry cleaner doesn’t get this kind of help,” said Charlie Zanker, a corn and soybean farmer in Hamburg, Iowa. “But without it, too many of us would be out of business.”

With the trade aid adding to existing government disaster programs and taxpayer-subsidized crop insurance, government subsidies accounted for about a fourth of U.S. net farm income in 2019, according to data from the U.S. Agriculture Department’s (USDA) Economic Research Service. And net cash income is expected to fall sharply this year without those subsidies.

Dozens of farmers interviewed by Reuters said without more assistance they may not be able to plant this spring. China was the top buyer of U.S. soybeans in 2017 and a top importer of sorghum, dairy and other products.

USDA data showed that U.S. exporters shipped $1.36 billion worth of agricultural goods to China during January, well below the $2.39 billion shipped out in January 2017.

Purchases of sorghum have picked up slightly in recent weeks but are still down from 2017. But purchases of soybeans, typically the top U.S. agricultural export to China, have totaled just 1.13 million tonnes, according to the data. That compares with 2.83 million tonnes in the same period of 2017.

“We certainly haven’t seen the market rise as we were hoping after the Phase One Agreement, but I believe it will,” USDA Secretary Sonny Perdue said in a Feb. 21 statement, just after Trump’s tweeted about the possibility of trade aid. “I hope we can show that a third round is not needed for 2020 — we still believe farmers want trade rather than aid.”

The agreement was signed on Jan. 15 and officially took effect on Feb. 15. Trump’s economic adviser Larry Kudlow has said coronavirus could slow China’s purchases. The trade agreement contains a clause that calls for consultations if a natural disaster or other unforeseeable economic event delays compliance, although China has not invoked that clause in reaction to the coronavirus epidemic. A U.S Treasury official said last month the government does not expect the virus to change China’s commitments.

Farmers are curbing investments despite Trump’s repeated assurances. Many are shifting some acreage from soybeans to corn, which is less dependent on the Chinese market, while others are buying cheaper seed and being more cautious about buying new machinery.

“Most farmers are doing more repairs on their equipment, not buying new or trading in equipment for something new, like they have in the past,” said Roger Hadley, 67, an Indiana corn and soybean farmer and president of the Allen County, Indiana, Farm Bureau.

Even with generous aid, however, farm debt levels are forecast this year to reach the highest levels seen since 1982, when adjusted for inflation, according to USDA data.

Now, normally, I would say "Big cash handout to farmers? Buying votes I see." However, as listed in the last two articles, it might not happen, and it might not be enough anyhow. And, yeah, bigger than the auto bailout, so no Obama comparisons today!

Trump intentionally damaged US farm economy, so much so that even a record-breaking bailout wasn't enough. And, while he can attempt to blame the coronavirus for the current situation, he cannot blame it for the previous two years, which have led to the debt situation that, again, he can't even fix anymore.

Are we tired of winning yet?

[DocSavageFan]

You haven't been paying attention, we've seen some of those with the virus moved from a secure location all the way to California that is less equipped to handle the situation. Do tell why that would be?

Why does Trump keep doing things and when people call them out you and others call them conspiracy theories?

Please provide your citation that Trump ordered people with the virus to be moved from a secure location to California. Also, please state why California is less prepared to handle the virus than other States.

[Breccia]

As mentioned before, the New York/New Jersey Port Authority recently came into the spotlight as one of its employees tested positive.

Three TSA employees in California just tested positive.

Probably the most dangerous thing that can happen with a disease like that, is having infectious carriers in public transportation areas. You did see Twelve Monkeys, right?

Trump has not yet publicly admitted that the coronavirus and the trade war are actually related. If he relaxes or removes tariffs, China can start to recover, but that's a surrender on the trade war, leaving Trump with four years of results below what he started with, and nothing to show for it. Or, he could continue the hardline approach, leaving China with a deal they at least pretended to agree to, that they can't follow through with, breaking the deal anyhow.

But we knew that. There's a bit that should be stapled to the previous post about farms tho:

Another group that would be greatly helped by a rollback in tariffs is farmers and the U.S. agriculture sector, which last year saw farm debt rise to record levels and bankruptcies increase 20%.

The industry was banking on the phase one deal's commitment of a $200 billion increase in purchases from China, which was in doubt when the agreement was signed and now looks even less likely.

Trump has provided $28 billion in bailout funding for farmers and last year 40% of U.S. farm income came from trade assistance. That funding has expired.

"Most observers believed that the ag sector was hurt and would need an extraordinary year to make up for that. I don’t think they’re going to see it," Mary Lovely, a senior fellow at PIIE and economics professor at Syracuse, tells Axios.

"Couple that with the fact that the U.S. could very possibly be heading towards a recession, and it’s going to be a tough year for them."

40% might not be the majority, but it's a yuge bigly JOBS! portion of farm income. And, yes, it would take a dramatic turn of events at this point for China to not just match what they bought last year (which won't be enough) but match what Trump claims they agreed to this year.

- - - Updated - - -

Don't expect too much to resolve itself with the oil market, either. The UAE just increased production in solidarity.

"Don't they know energy demand is about to drop?"

Yes. Yes they do. These people aren't stupid. They're playing chicken with Russia, but they're driving a 1989 Mercury Sable with air bags, and Russia is driving a Checker Cab with no airbags. The impact will hurt the Saudis but cripple the Russians.

Which is why the Russian Energy Minister, Alexander Novichok, has --

"Novak"

Whatever. Has been calling OPEC and other oil-producing countries, probably in tears, because if this goes poorly newly-crowned emperor for life Putin will have him shot.

[kaid]

Holy shit. It was somewhere around 600 yesterday. That's a big leap.

A lot of this is simply the US test kits are finally starting to get into full swing so we are actually able to confirm stuff that was only suspected. That is why trumps talking about the number of cases for a while now is mostly whistling in the graveyard because they simply were not doing the tests so they never had any real idea how wide spread it was. Basically I am assuming for every known case we are seeing there are 2 or 3 that we don't and thats basically the minimum with as transmittable as this appears to be.

[Breccia]

Basically I am assuming

Why, that sounds like a "hunch".

Speaking of Trump talking points, both Mas Senators called out Trump today for spreading intentionally misleading information when there are perfectly good doctors and health organizations who know what they're talking about.

At the press conference, President Trump spread misinformation about coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and federal efforts to combat its spread—threatening to confuse the public and muddle the streamlined response that you have been asked to lead.

During this crisis, the American public needs the Trump administration to provide clear, consistent, science-based information about COVID-19; we urge you to ensure that future communications meet this standard.

Despite these cascading problems, Friday's press conference began with CDC Director Redfield praising President Trump's ‘decisive leadership’ in the public health crisis. President Trump then spoke, making numerous comments suggesting that he does not understand the contours nor gravity of COVID-19's spread. He claimed, among other things, that ‘anybody that needs a test, gets a test’ — a statement that is not accurate and served to spread confusion about testing protocols and test accessibility.

And then he left the room, without answering questions.

This series of false, politicized, and nonsensical statements by the President are deeply troubling. Friday's press conference was a disservice to the nation and the non-partisan scientists and public health experts at the CDC and across the federal government.

And just so you know how serious they are, note who the letter is addressed to.

While doing so, everyone should feel free to read/review basically everything from the CDC, including Redfield and Rauci, and of course international disclosures like the WHO. Then, review what Trump said. Trump is the odd man out. Trump is the one saying "one person from China, contained, April Lol" until the stock market drops. No, really, the timing works out. Big drop -> press conference. People die -> gets their gender wrong if he mentions it at all. He literally last week said it wasn't a problem because only 27 people had died.

When it comes to how this disease works, I think it's safer to listen to pretty much anyone other than an anti-vaxxer science denier admits he didn't know the flu killed people and projected that on everyone else lied about his height to stop being obese by one pound thinks a flu shot will help put Carson in charge of inner-city slums said Clinton had a stroke can't climb a small hill fucking ignoramus who lies about everything from windmills causing cancer to the weather.

- - - Updated - - -

And speaking of indefensible liars:

National security adviser Robert O’Brien claimed Wednesday that an initial cover-up of the coronavirus in China “cost the world community two months” and exacerbated the global outbreak.

Yes they did. There's plenty of blame to go around.

Asked about China’s initial response, as well as spurious claims from some Chinese officials and media that the outbreak may not have started in China, O’Brien emphasized that “this virus did not originate in the United States, it originated in Wuhan.”

“Unfortunately, rather than using best practices, this outbreak in Wuhan was covered up,” O’Brien said, citing instances of doctors who were “silenced."

“It probably cost the world community two months to respond,” he continued, adding that if teams from the World Health Organization and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention had been invited in early on, “I think we could have dramatically curtailed what happened in China and what’s now happening across the world.”

Now granted, this guy is also a partisan hack defending Trump.

Speaking at the Heritage Foundation, O’Brien echoed other administration officials in saying President Trump’s “courageous decision” in late January to block air travel from China “bought the United States 6-8 weeks to prepare for the virus.”

Trump's "courageous decision" is still the one Trump claims Democrats opposed. I am still waiting for evidence of this.

And one last time, just to drive the point home:

It’s one person coming in from China. We have it under control. It’s going to be just fine.

-- Trump, Jan 22, which I hereby deem "late January".

It is possible for both China and the US to have fucked this up. To be fair, the US didn't fuck up quite so badly.