Mega-Thread: Trump Focused Discussion

[Shadowferal]

Was just the first source I thought of when I went looking for specific numbers and they have been who I have been going to.
On that note, we are going to pass 7000 dead today if we haven't already. Getting about 1k dead daily now it seems.

I've been keeping track of numbers from both JH and Worldometer.
1k per day it is, or so it seems.
If there's no doubling up to twice that per day...well, at the risk of sounding optimistic then...that might be the plateau.

[Sorshen]

General Russel L. Honore talking about disaster task force logistics... compare that to Jader Kushner and Trump's performance.

https://twitter.com/DavidBegnaud/sta...06088911949826

[Mayhem]

I've been keeping track of numbers from both JH and Worldometer.
1k per day it is, or so it seems.
If there's no doubling up to twice that per day...well, at the risk of sounding optimistic then...that might be the plateau.

I don't want to burst your bubble but with the rate of daily infections, you aren't anywhere near the plateau. 3 days ago the US was at 188k cases.

[jonnysensible]

I don't want to burst your bubble but with the rate of daily infections, you aren't anywhere near the plateau. 3 days ago the US was at 188k cases.

yea, in the UK we still arent expecting to plateau for another week. Its going to get brutal.

[Shadowferal]

I don't want to burst your bubble but with the rate of daily infections, you aren't anywhere near the plateau. 3 days ago the US was at 188k cases.

We're talking deaths, not cases.
Cases don't really mean a lot to me.

[Mayhem]

We're talking deaths, not cases.
Cases don't really mean a lot to me.

Uhm, ok, so you think despite more people getting infected the deaths stay the same? That's an interesting kind of optimism you're sporting.

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yea, in the UK we still arent expecting to plateau for another week. Its going to get brutal.

With the number of deaths added daily, your case numbers are either off by a magnitude of 2-5 or your NHS is already at peak capacity.

[Shadowferal]

Uhm, ok, so you think despite more people getting infected the deaths stay the same? That's an interesting kind of optimism you're sporting.

As pointed out...1k per day. Is there some sort of fantasy in your premise that "recoveries" don't exist? Because they do..at twice the number of deaths at least at first in the US. (Seems to be picking up)

[PhaelixWW]

With the number of deaths added daily, your case numbers are either off by a magnitude of 2-5 or your NHS is already at peak capacity.

Probably both, in all honesty.

[Mayhem]

As pointed out...1k per day. Is there some sort of fantasy in your premise that "recoveries" don't exist? Because they do..at twice the number of deaths at least at first in the US. (Seems to be picking up)

You're not even at twice the deaths at this point and you're again adding way more people to the pool of infected daily, so how do you think your numbers could make any sense?

[PhaelixWW]

As pointed out...1k per day.
Is there some sort of fantasy in your premise that "recoveries" don't exist?
Because they do..at twice the number of deaths so far in the US.

With an estimated IFR of 0.5-5%, we'll see the "recovered" number end up being ~20-200 times the infected rate. Obviously, the recovery curve is the stat that lags the most behind everything else here, but even so, a recovery count of double so far is hardly anything to pin any real sense of optimism on.

[jonnysensible]

Uhm, ok, so you think despite more people getting infected the deaths stay the same? That's an interesting kind of optimism you're sporting.

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With the number of deaths added daily, your case numbers are either off by a magnitude of 2-5 or your NHS is already at peak capacity.

They are only counting people who died in hostpital and were identified to have covid. So the numbers are bunk but its the best they can do and gives an indication into the hammering they are getting. I think Wales and NI are posting the day befores figures as well.

But yea the NHS will be full up.

[Shadowferal]

You're not even at twice the deaths at this point and you're again adding way more people to the pool of infected daily, so how do you think your numbers could make any sense?

If the numbers don't make sense to you...then which website could you possibly be using?
Damn dude...I have to wonder about people like you...Will you be depressed when the shit is all over and people are recovering?

[Thekri]

As pointed out...1k per day. Is there some sort of fantasy in your premise that "recoveries" don't exist? Because they do..at twice the number of deaths at least at first in the US. (Seems to be picking up)

No, obviously recoveries exist. But if the mortality rate stays constant, then more cases = more deaths.

There is a lead time on fatalities, it isn't a dice roll the second you get diagnosed. The people who are dying from it today contracted the disease 1-2 weeks ago, when there was a lot less cases. It stands to reason that the people who contracted it this week will be the ones dying over the next 2-3 weeks, and there are a lot more of them.

This isn't being pessimistic, it is just facing reality. The Death rate doesn't parallel the Infection rate, it is a time delayed curve, they are looking at two different populations. Now the point at which they are being diagnosed greatly changes how those curves look. For instance Germany was doing aggressive early testing, so there is a long time delay in their two curves. Places that are being overwhelmed, such as New York and Italy, are mostly testing people who are already symptomatic, so there is a short time delay, and a much higher apparent death rate (Since most of the asymptomatic cases aren't being diagnosed).

Recovery rates will also be time delayed, but by an even longer amount. So we should expect to see the daily deaths peak about a week or two after new cases peak, and we will see recoveries per day peak about 2 weeks after that.

[Mayhem]

If the numbers don't make sense to you...then which website could you possibly be using?
Damn dude...I have to wonder about people like you...Will you be depressed when the shit is all over and people are recovering?

Your numbers, or are you disbuting the 188k three days ago and 266k (sofar) today? I mean, the ones that are counted today didn't get infected yesterday.

I actually don't want people to take this lightly and probably risk infection but ok, it's probably the plateau now, this'll be over within days.

[Shadowferal]

I actually don't want people to take this lightly and probably risk infection but ok, it's probably the plateau now, this'll be over within days.

I agree with you...and I'll just drop it now.

[Redwyrm]

Trump shitshow. There is a covid virus thread for talking numbers

[Spectral]

I've been keeping track of numbers from both JH and Worldometer.
1k per day it is, or so it seems.
If there's no doubling up to twice that per day...well, at the risk of sounding optimistic then...that might be the plateau.

Doubling time looks like ~5.3 days still. The rate of increase is lower than peak rate of increase, but the number of total active cases doesn't look close to plateauing.

[Mayhem]

Doubling time looks like ~5.3 days still. The rate of increase is lower than peak rate of increase, but the number of total active cases doesn't look close to plateauing.

Wow, 5.3 days, well that is wow, that is bad, that is really really really bad.

[Breccia]

I can't help but notice Trump hasn't used the word "Easter" much recently.

I know I normally report on the failure that is Trump's containment of the virus as a death count about 12:30AM, but, it's nearly +1,000 from then already. What's more noteworthy is the new cases outside NYC are proportionately MUCH higher this time.

As y'all know, NYC and NYState locked down relatively early, but, there is still spreading in the state. When I came back from Spring Break there were still no cases in my upstate county. Last week it was 13. Now it's 26. My county is filled mostly with
1) a federal prison
2) a hospital, and
3) farmers.

It's also disproportionately old and poor compared to the country.

[Spectral]

Wow, 5.3 days, well that is wow, that is bad, that is really really really bad.

Yeah, I keep seeing people trying to squint at the numbers for signs that it's time to open back up and I'm just not seeing anything that's consistent with people's impression that we might be all set shortly. Barring something really unexpected that doesn't line up with anything we've seen elsewhere we're going to see the numbers soar pretty substantially. Even for people that are proponents of the "hammer and dance" strategy, there's not a lot of evidence that there's been a good hammer response.