Mega-Thread: Trump Focused Discussion

[DarkTZeratul]

Some food for thought...

Democrats are up an average of 8.8 points in the Generic ballot... At this point in time in 2018, Democrats were up 7.5%. In order for Republicans to take back the House they'd need to be a hell of a lot closer than the condition that brought us the 40+ blue pickups. If Republicans don't have the house, no amount of fuckery Trump tries to do to invalidate the election results would result in him staying in office.

Even if they do take the House, most of the fuckery they'd pull would be resolved by the current House, not the incoming one.

[Verdugo]

You guys don't see what's happening? Trump is just playing the long game so Mexico pays for the wall.

And they will possibly even build it themselves. It will be on Mexican side and the guns will be pointed towards U.S. but the wall will stand.

[cubby]

And they will possibly even build it themselves. It will be on Mexican side and the guns will be pointed towards U.S. but the wall will stand.

Lol at this point, that's not out of the question. Did you see Mexico closed their border to us because of Coronavirus?

[kaelleria]

Are you talking about the situation that would arise if neither candidate received 270 electoral votes? Because if so, you should review that process, because it's NOT a House majority vote for President. It's each state gets one vote.

EDIT: hope that didn't come off as snarky, didn't mean for it if it did.

I'm not talking about that... I'm talking about the case where Trump tries to contest the results and invalidate the election. That would give the presidency to the Speaker of the House.

[cubby]

I'm not talking about that... I'm talking about the case where Trump tries to contest the results and invalidate the election. That would give the presidency to the Speaker of the House.

Oh, interesting - I hadn't heard about that avenue.

(can you even believe we have to have these discussions - Trump just continues to sprint into the abyss...)

[Thekri]

I'm not talking about that... I'm talking about the case where Trump tries to contest the results and invalidate the election. That would give the presidency to the Speaker of the House.

That only works if only the Presidential results are invalidated. It the entire election is invalidated, then the entire house of Representatives will end their term on the same day as the President, and the only federally elected officials left will be 2/3s of the Senate. There would be no speaker of the house in that scenario, since the US has no provisions at all for an election that doesn't happen.

[cubby]

That only works if only the Presidential results are invalidated. It the entire election is invalidated, then the entire house of Representatives will end their term on the same day as the President, and the only federally elected officials left will be 2/3s of the Senate. There would be no speaker of the house in that scenario, since the US has no provisions at all for an election that doesn't happen.

It was my understanding that if the results are invalidated, then the House votes for the President with one vote per state. What process are you two referring to? Help me out here.

[Thekri]

It was my understanding that if the results are invalidated, then the House votes for the President with one vote per state. What process are you two referring to? Help me out here.

So different scenarios here:

#1) Several Key States (Florida, Georgia, Wisconsin) declare their own results invalid due to alleged errors. This prevents either Presidential Candidate from achieving 270 electoral college votes, so neither side wins. This is the Scenario the 12th Amendment covers, and in that case the House determines who is president using the 1 state 1 vote system in the 12th Amendment. Senators and Representatives from those states probably have special elections.

#2) The entire November election is declared invalid by the Federal Government, either before or after it occurs. This is not covered by any law, but what is clear is that on Jan 20, 2020 all current term limits expire, and nobody can continue to hold office without being reelected. This leaves 2/3s of the Senate as the only Federal Government that is left. This is a full blown constitutional crisis, and at some point the military probably gets involved if the situation isn't resolved by January 20.

[Gorsameth]

So different scenarios here:

#1) Several Key States (Florida, Georgia, Wisconsin) declare their own results invalid due to alleged errors. This prevents either Presidential Candidate from achieving 270 electoral college votes, so neither side wins. This is the Scenario the 12th Amendment covers, and in that case the House determines who is president using the 1 state 1 vote system in the 12th Amendment. Senators and Representatives from those states probably have special elections.

#2) The entire November election is declared invalid by the Federal Government, either before or after it occurs. This is not covered by any law, but what is clear is that on Jan 20, 2020 all current term limits expire, and nobody can continue to hold office without being reelected. This leaves 2/3s of the Senate as the only Federal Government that is left. This is a full blown constitutional crisis, and at some point the military probably gets involved if the situation isn't resolved by January 20.

How do both these scenario's survive the Supreme Court saying 'fuck no'?

Because any attempt to declare anything invalid is 100% going to get thrown to the courts.

[Antiganon]

It was my understanding that if the results are invalidated, then the House votes for the President with one vote per state. What process are you two referring to? Help me out here.

If, at the time fixed for the beginning of the term of the President, the President elect shall have died, the Vice President elect shall become President. If a President shall not have been chosen before the time fixed for the beginning of his term, or if the President elect shall have failed to qualify, then the Vice President elect shall act as President until a President shall have qualified; and the Congress may by law provide for the case wherein neither a President elect nor a Vice President elect shall have qualified, declaring who shall then act as President, or the manner in which one who is to act shall be selected, and such person shall act accordingly until a President or Vice President shall have qualified.

US Constitution, Amendment XX, Section 3.

Congress in this case could be interpreted to mean the totality of both houses, just the sitting members as of 1/20 (i.e. 66 Senators), or just the House. It has never been tested before, and would almost certainly go to SCOTUS. If we consider the sitting 65 members of the Senate as of 1/20/2021 assuming no election is held, the Democrats hold a 33(+2)-30 majority, and would have as the President Pro Tempore Patrick Leahy (D-VT).

[Thekri]

How do both these scenario's survive the Supreme Court saying 'fuck no'?

Because any attempt to declare anything invalid is 100% going to get thrown to the courts.

I agree it is a weird scenario, I personally don't think it is likely, because there isn't a mechanism to officially invalidate an election in the first place. So Trump can "Declare" it invalid, but it is a declaration with no legal weight behind it. The Supreme Court doesn't really have a case to rule on, depending on what mechanism is used.

The most likely way of declaring the election invalid is Trump just tweeting that it is invalid. This invokes the precedent of "Old Man vs. Cloud", and everyone can just roll their eyes and ignore it. If it is something more like a Dictatorial coup, then the Supreme Court's opinions are irrelevant anyway, at least until after the shooting stops.

[Benggaul]

So, we're all okay with McConnell wearing a tan suit in the Oval Office, right? I seem to remember that being a big deal a while ago...

[Antiganon]

I agree it is a weird scenario, I personally don't think it is likely, because there isn't a mechanism to officially invalidate an election in the first place. So Trump can "Declare" it invalid, but it is a declaration with no legal weight behind it. The Supreme Court doesn't really have a case to rule on, depending on what mechanism is used.

The most likely way of declaring the election invalid is Trump just tweeting that it is invalid. This invokes the precedent of "Old Man vs. Cloud", and everyone can just roll their eyes and ignore it. If it is something more like a Dictatorial coup, then the Supreme Court's opinions are irrelevant anyway, at least until after the shooting stops.

The Secretary of the State of each of the 50 states needs to certify the election results in order for them to be valid.

Trump can't officially do anything as President, but he can pressure GOP officials at the state level.

[eschatological]

US Constitution, Amendment XX, Section 3.

Congress in this case could be interpreted to mean the totality of both houses, just the sitting members as of 1/20 (i.e. 66 Senators), or just the House. It has never been tested before, and would almost certainly go to SCOTUS. If we consider the sitting 65 members of the Senate as of 1/20/2021 assuming no election is held, the Democrats hold a 33(+2)-30 majority, and would have as the President Pro Tempore Patrick Leahy (D-VT).

And then Patrick Leahy puts forward his good friend Elizabeth Warren forward for POTUS, seeing as neither Biden or Trump could win the majority and picking either might cause a civil war.

...a guy can dream.

[Benggaul]

I don't give 2 shits about this joke. Every time a Republican wears a tan suit people focus on it. It was bullshit when they focused on Obama for it, and it's silly to focus on their hypocrisy in that area when others do it. There are much bigger issues going on right now than being catty about what color clothes people wear in the White House.

That's cool. I have enough energy to focus on both their hypocrisy about this AND the other bullshit they pull, but you do you.

[Antiganon]

And then Patrick Leahy puts forward his good friend Elizabeth Warren forward for POTUS, seeing as neither Biden or Trump could win the majority and picking either might cause a civil war.

...a guy can dream.

I'm thinking we'd get Leahy himself as POTUS. President Pro Tempore is first in the line of succession after Speaker of the House, and without any sitting House members as of 1/20/2021, there would be no Speaker.

(POTUS>VPOTUS>SotH>PPT>State>Defense>Treasury>etc on down to Homeland Security)

Presumably he would act as an interim President to deal with foreign affairs and working with the FEC to set new elections as soon as humanly possible, then abdicate to the new President-elect after elections were held.

[Thekri]

The Secretary of the State of each of the 50 states needs to certify the election results in order for them to be valid.

Trump can't officially do anything as President, but he can pressure GOP officials at the state level.

Right, and that is scenario #1, and we have precedent here, because that is essentially what happened to Florida in 2000. Bush v. Gore had a lot of complex legalize around it, but the basic result is that a State has to pick a result and go with it. You can't just wave your hands and pretend you don't know WTF just happened.

So if a SecState refuses to certify, the Courts will make them certify. I don't think that is particularly likely either, even the most partisan SecStates know they have to certify an election. Trump can pressure them, but they have more then enough legal cover to do so anyway. Now obviously I fully expect a lot of partisan bullshit to try to change the results, but that is a different issue. I expect we will get a result from the Presidential Election by the first or second week of December. I would be surprised if it was much earlier or much later. You can quote me on that if you like.

Edit: The one condition on the above prediction is if it is a close election. Which it might not be. If Biden absolutely destroys Trump, then we will know fairly early in the evening of that night. But if it is close, we won't get a result until December. I don't think Trump can win outright that evening.

[zorkuus]

I don't give 2 shits about this joke. Every time a Republican wears a tan suit people focus on it. It was bullshit when they focused on Obama for it, and it's silly to focus on their hypocrisy in that area when others do it. There are much bigger issues going on right now than being catty about what color clothes people wear in the White House.

I like hypocrisy. It's so yummy rubbing it in their faces. Pointless, but fun.

[Benggaul]

Yeah, I'll focus on the shit that matters. You go ahead and focus on every little shiny distraction they are purposefully throwing out to distract those like you.

lol, and now you want to be needlessly combative because I chose to call them out on their hypocrisy? I'm sorry that, to you, this doesn't matter, but again, I have the energy to call them out on EVERY bit of hypocrisy. I don't feel the need to pick and choose. Feel free to put me on ignore if you feel differently, but I'll thank you to not be a dick about it.

[cubby]

So different scenarios here:

#1) Several Key States (Florida, Georgia, Wisconsin) declare their own results invalid due to alleged errors. This prevents either Presidential Candidate from achieving 270 electoral college votes, so neither side wins. This is the Scenario the 12th Amendment covers, and in that case the House determines who is president using the 1 state 1 vote system in the 12th Amendment. Senators and Representatives from those states probably have special elections.

#2) The entire November election is declared invalid by the Federal Government, either before or after it occurs. This is not covered by any law, but what is clear is that on Jan 20, 2020 all current term limits expire, and nobody can continue to hold office without being reelected. This leaves 2/3s of the Senate as the only Federal Government that is left. This is a full blown constitutional crisis, and at some point the military probably gets involved if the situation isn't resolved by January 20.

#1 I have been read into and understand - and it sucks, it's the doomsday scenario for the Democrats, and the one Trump is most likely gaming out (I would if I were on his team).

#2 is interesting. My curiosity begins by asking from what authority the Federal Government could declare the election invalid and have it stick? @Gorsameth brings this up as well (stop me if I'm misunderstanding your point). Trump might want to do that, but him declaring it would be like me declaring war on Canada - no authority to do so. It's clear the states determine their votes for president - if they certify the results, that's all that matters. That's how I see it at least.

- - - Updated - - -

And then Patrick Leahy puts forward his good friend Elizabeth Warren forward for POTUS, seeing as neither Biden or Trump could win the majority and picking either might cause a civil war.

...a guy can dream.

Although I disagree with @Antiganon's reading of that Amendment in this scenario (IIRC it covers a death post-election pre-inauguration), I love your outcome. Indeed, a guy can dream....