Mega-Thread: Trump Focused Discussion

[Breccia]

"Should be an election law violation!"

To be fair, at least he said "should". Now he's wrong and a fucking moron, but at least this wasn't a third concurrent 24-hour challenge.

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Yeah, worldometers isn’t accurate.

Find literally any source of numbers.

They'll all say the same thing. The margin of error won't change the results by a meaningful amount.

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The high mark, according to worldometers, was 7/25 at 69,966. We will pass that mark today if we hit 65k new cases.

The fact that we're looking at even an effective tie should be concerning. Your graph does show a third incline, and a steep one.

It does not show "rounding the curve". Trump lied.

[Lenonis]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/...90788628598784

And yet his followers mock us when he talk about fascism. How on earth is that anything other than 100% fascism?

[Eviscero]

Dear God, this actually makes Trump palatable. When he sounds like an actual standup comedian and not a President.

1) He sounds drunk.

2) This is definitely what he wishes he could do.

[PhaelixWW]

The fact that we're looking at even an effective tie should be concerning. Your graph does show a third incline, and a steep one.

It does not show "rounding the curve". Trump lied.

Well, I mean, that's the thing about math: it's objective.

So, we've been doing more testing lately, as Trump likes to mention. In general, increased testing will have a somewhat depressing effect on the positivity rate, as we more freely test people "just to check", so to speak. So when the testing numbers go down and the positivity also goes down, then you know the virus is definitely in the decline. Conversely, if the testing numbers go up and the positivity is also increasing, then shit's getting worse. Only when testing is going up but positivity is going down is it potentially inconclusive.

It should be obvious to everyone which one of those scenarios is playing out right now, but if not...




So yeah, Trump is full of shit. Whodathunkit.

[Breccia]

And yet his followers mock us when he talk about fascism. How on earth is that anything other than 100% fascism?

Ugh, you're going to make me do it, aren't you? Fine.

@DocSavageFan
@lockedout
@GreenJesus
@Thwart
@Ghostpanther
@Zeth Hawkins
@Hammerfest
@the game
@Derpleton
@Healing Rain

You have 24 hours to pick one of these choices.

1) Trump is right, and Trump must also decry the NYPost endorsemeht he just got, for exactly the same reason.
2) Trump is wrong, and the news should still report on facts of importance, even if it's near the election, but Trump can keep the NYPost endorsement.

Do neither, and you're a fucking dickless coward.
[Infraction]

[Lenonis]

Ugh, you're going to make me do it, aren't you? Fine.

You do it so well. How could I not?

[Benggaul]

I’ll stick with the official numbers instead of those using their own criteria.

You're free to choose whichever source you want. As I said, they all are within the same ballpark as each other and just use differing methodology. Although, also as previously mentioned, other sources like JH also use Worldometers and JH are also using arbitrary "criteria" in many cases.

I will, however, say that your claim of Worldometers being "inaccurate" is baseless.

[GreenJesus]

Ugh, you're going to make me do it, aren't you? Fine.

@DocSavageFan
@lockedout
@GreenJesus
@Thwart
@Ghostpanther
@Zeth Hawkins
@Hammerfest
@the game
@Derpleton
@Healing Rain

You have 24 hours to pick one of these choices.

1) Trump is right, and Trump must also decry the NYPost endorsemeht he just got, for exactly the same reason.
2) Trump is wrong, and the news should still report on facts of importance, even if it's near the election, but Trump can keep the NYPost endorsement.

Do neither, and you're a fucking dickless coward.
[Infraction]

What are you talking about? Right or wrong about what?

What does a NYpost endorsement have to do with anything? Other newspapers endorsed Biden too. Whats your point?

[Benggaul]

The difference being that JH is a team of experts and Worldometers isn’t.

Once again, a baseless accusation. Not sure why you feel the need to fight over this--and be wrong--but hopefully by this point everyone's ignoring what you have to say about it anyway. Ta.

https://www.worldometers.info/about/

About

Worldometer is run by an international team of developers, researchers, and volunteers with the goal of making world statistics available in a thought-provoking and time relevant format to a wide audience around the world. It is published by a small and independent digital media company based in the United States. We have no political, governmental, or corporate affiliation. Furthermore, we have no investors, donors, grants, or backers of any type. We are completely independent and self-financed through automated programmatic advertising sold in real time on multiple ad exchanges.

Trusted Authority

Worldometer was voted as one of the best free reference websites by the American Library Association (ALA), the oldest and largest library association in the world.

Worldometer is a provider of global COVID-19 statistics for many caring people around the world. Our data is also trusted and used by the UK Government, Johns Hopkins CSSE, the Government of Thailand, the Government of Pakistan, the Government of Sri Lanka, Government of Vietnam, Financial Times, The New York Times, Business Insider, BBC, and many others.

Over the past 15 years, our statistics have been requested by, and provided to: Oxford University Press, Wiley, Pearson, CERN, World Wide Web Consortium (W3C), The Atlantic, BBC, Milton J. Rubenstein Museum of Science & Technology, Science Museum of Virginia, Morgan Stanley, IBM, Hewlett Packard, Dell, Kaspersky, PricewaterhouseCoopers, Amazon Alexa, Google Translate, the United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development (Rio+20), the U2 concert, and many others.
Worldometer is cited as a source in over 10,000 published books and in more than 6,000 professional journal articles.

[Breccia]

What are you talking about?

That's not an answer. Please post constructively.

[Felya]

What are you talking about? Right or wrong about what?

What does a NYpost endorsement have to do with anything? Other newspapers endorsed Biden too. Whats your point?

Trump said that Covid reporting should be considered an election law violation:

We have made tremendous progress with the China Virus, but the Fake News refuses to talk about it this close to the Election. COVID, COVID, COVID is being used by them, in total coordination, in order to change our great early election numbers.Should be an election law violation!

While he got an endorsement from NY Post, without complaining about election law violations.

[PhaelixWW]

I’ll stick with the official numbers instead of those using their own criteria.

Nothing about the JH numbers make them any more "official" than worldometers.

The difference being that JH is a team of experts and Worldometers isn’t.

This is not analysis, so there's no value added by a supposed "team of experts".

It feels like you're being salty just to be salty.

[Breccia]

The difference being that JH is a team of experts and Worldometers isn’t.

The JH, the Worldometers, and the NYTimes have all been awfully close to each other for months. They have definitely all listed the same trends.

This wouldn't be even a topic of discussion if the data was publicly avaiable from a dot-gov site, like the CDC. The sources we're talking about and using are doing the best they can by talking to local sources directly. Until there's a massive gap between them, they're all giving basically the same info.

[Breccia]

I’m not disputing that they’re relatively close

Okay, then we're good.

On topic: Kudlow was asked point-blank by FOX News for Trump's economic plan.

Kudlow basically responded "No."

White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow suggested on Monday that the Trump administration would not be releasing a detailed second-term economic plan before the Nov. 3 election.

In an interview with Fox News, Kudlow said that the administration is "deep into discussions" about potential second-term plans for taxes and regulations, and that he's also spoken to U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer about possible future plans for trade.

But Kudlow also said he doesn't "see any reason why we have to put out a detailed plan."

Kudlow's comments on Monday are contrary to comments he's made previously. In January, Kudlow said that he expected Trump to roll out a new tax proposal as part of his reelection campaign.

No health plan.

No economic plan.

No infrastructure plan.

No plan.

Trump is a failure.

[PhaelixWW]

The JH, the Worldometers, and the NYTimes have all been awfully close to each other for months. They have definitely all listed the same trends.

This wouldn't be even a topic of discussion if the data was publicly avaiable from a dot-gov site, like the CDC. The sources we're talking about and using are doing the best they can by talking to local sources directly. Until there's a massive gap between them, they're all giving basically the same info.

That brings up one of the major differences between JH and worldometers. Spain, for example, doesn't report over the weekend. When they do report on Monday, they give the total for Monday and update the cumulative total. Later, when more information is released, individual totals for Saturday and Sunday can be calculated. JH, on the one hand, adds the total increase as a single day on Monday and never changes the result, leading to a historical graph that looks like this:




Worldometers, on the other hand, recognizes that even though that total was reported on one day, it represents the total for the three days. They correctly allocate Monday's total to Monday, then split the remainder of the cumulative case increase between Saturday and Sunday, and then when those numbers come out at a more local level, they correct that split even further, which gives us this:




Both sets of numbers come from legitimate government sources, but JH just sets it and forgets it. Worldometers tries to get the context right and re-checks and re-calculates past days as needed, for an overall clearer and more accurate picture.

Plus, worldometers fucking sources their data:

[Edge-]

Okay, then we're good.

On topic: Kudlow was asked point-blank by FOX News for Trump's economic plan.

Kudlow basically responded "No."



No health plan.

No economic plan.

No infrastructure plan.

No plan.

Trump is a failure.

So about the same as the first four years. No plans for anything, the only real victories being reactionary responses or Senate Republican led legislative efforts.

What is the most infuriating to me is that there will be no justice for these people. Larry Kudlow will continue to have his ties, and not him, star in his wifes paintings. He'll probably go back to his career of being consistently wrong on literally everything as a talking head on TV. And he'll probably get all kinds of additional sweetheart speaking gigs and board positions based on his connection to the Trump administration.

He'll live the high life and continue to be rich as shit.

Meanwhile, the US economy is fucked and he doesn't give a shit that a quarter of a million Americans have died under the watch of his boss, and he was absolutely directly responsible for delivering lies and misinformation that was partially responsible for that death toll.

[PhaelixWW]

Basically the same, yet still very different. I’m not disputing that they’re relatively close, but the official max 7-day average just happened. Anyone disputing that is using unofficial numbers. Which was my point.

I don't think you really know what "official" means...

[Benggaul]

Basically the same, yet still very different. I’m not disputing that they’re relatively close, but the official max 7-day average just happened. Anyone disputing that is using unofficial numbers. Which was my point.

Except, as has been mentioned, JH numbers aren't exactly "official" either. Just more widely used within the US and reported in a different way.

EDIT: @PhaelixWW has already proven the point more thoroughly so I'll end my part of this minor derailment.

[Endus]

I don't get single-issue voters, for the most part. There aren't a lot of single-issue political jobs, after all.

THe problem with attracting single-issue voters is that you have to deliver on that single issue. That's why Trump is losing coal, oil, and steel. That's why Trump is what do you have to losing the African-American vote. At least farmers he turned into socialists, so he probably still has them.

I've said it before, I'll say it again here; I do not for one hot second believe there's actually such a thing as a "single issue voter".

It's an excuse they use as a not-terribly-plausible cover for their real, execrable wants and desires, that they know they can't publicly express.

Not only do they often vote against their supposed "single issue", or continue to support a candidate who has not delivered on that issue, what being a "single issue voter" necessarily means is you don't care about anything else. You want lower taxes for yourself, so you're willing to accept racist genocides and mass human rights atrocities to get that.

You know what they called a German in 1938 who supported the Reich because he was a single-issue voter who just wanted Germany to secure its borders properly?

A Nazi.

Not some milquetoast euphemism. He's as Nazi as Goebbels was. And that's the case with these single-issue voters; you don't get to escape responsibility for what you've supported by trying to argue that you willfully ignored everything else to focus on just one issue. You supported all of it. None of what was going on was a dealbreaker, for you. You can't escape that.

[TexasRules]

I've said it before, I'll say it again here; I do not for one hot second believe there's actually such a thing as a "single issue voter".

It's an excuse they use as a not-terribly-plausible cover for their real, execrable wants and desires, that they know they can't publicly express.

Not only do they often vote against their supposed "single issue", or continue to support a candidate who has not delivered on that issue, what being a "single issue voter" necessarily means is you don't care about anything else. You want lower taxes for yourself, so you're willing to accept racist genocides and mass human rights atrocities to get that.

You know what they called a German in 1938 who supported the Reich because he was a single-issue voter who just wanted Germany to secure its borders properly?

A Nazi.

Not some milquetoast euphemism. He's as Nazi as Goebbels was. And that's the case with these single-issue voters; you don't get to escape responsibility for what you've supported by trying to argue that you willfully ignored everything else to focus on just one issue. You supported all of it. None of what was going on was a dealbreaker, for you. You can't escape that.

So all the people who voted for Obama because he was black are like nazis?