Mega-Thread: Trump Focused Discussion

[Corvus]

I don't know about anyone else, but I'm not surprised that anyone with weasel in their name was up to no good.

[Dontrike]

I don't know about anyone else, but I'm not surprised that anyone with weasel in their name was up to no good.

What? You mean Wormtongue is the bad guy or that a character named Evil Lyn (Evelyn) is the villain?

[gondrin]

Michael Cohen has been making the rounds. Mostly, it's him laughing hysterically, But he mentioned three things I found interesting.
1) He's willing to testify.
2) The last day Cohen talked to Trump was the day he was raided. Cohen believes that Trump is cheering in private that Weaselberg was charged but not him -- because his lawyers, desperate not to be fired, keep lying to Trump that this is good news. Cohen believes Trump is in just as much trouble as everyone except Trump thinks he is, but believes Trump does not know this.
3) Cohen not only believes that Trump will ditch and sell out Weaselberg, but also would ditch and sell out his own children. But speaking of which, Cohen believes Weaselberg will flip because, well, duh who wouldn't? But also because the NY AG will go after Weaselberg's children. And even Weaselberg loves his children more than he loves going to jail for Trump, for which he wouldn't be paid anyhow.

- - - Updated - - -

So what else do we know?]

We know that [url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/2016-election/trump-lies/Trump was depositioned in a 2007 case[/url] and while doing so, said that nothing financial happened in his company without his knowledge and consent. This may make it difficult to sell out Weaselberg and claim ignorance.

We know the case spans 15 years and millions of dollars, but those millions of dollars required false/forged documents. Filing false tax returns is a really bad idea. Falsifying records is also obstruction.

We know prosecutors don't go after former White House residents unless they're damn sure they have something.

We know that grand juries can be extended.

We know that Weaselberg isn't really the target. Trump is. Weaselberg just has info on Trump. We also know Weaselberg called NY's bluff and as a result, was perp-walked into a courthouse with his hands cuffed behind his back.

We also know prosecutors have a lot of checks signed by Trump in the various raids they undertook with legal warrants.

And the big one -- we know all of this hasn't even mentioned Trump's personal taxes, his misvaluing his own properties for tax purpose vs. loans, campaign finance violations (that's Cohen's thing) or any acts he took while in the White House (which, yes, he can be charged with, he does not have absolute immunity from, say, launching investigations against reporters because they said mean things about him) which the DoJ might get into later.

Trump's entire business just got arrested. Next up, individual employees. Even if Trump was willing to help them out (all evidence says he is not) most of his lawyers are not able to help him anyhow.

It is possible Weaselberg will on the sword, although I have no idea why he'd do that. That's not the entire issue. With the sheer amount of records NY already has plus the ability to get more, it seems highly unlikely they'll stop with him. While Weaselberg might be the highest non-Trump up the ladder, others were involved -- I don't see Weaselberg as being the one who forged every document without anyone else's hands involved. Anyone else involved will have the evidence shoved in their face before the cuffs clank closed. Then Trump Org itself gets taken to task, not just by NY AG but by anyone they still owe money.

I don't see how Weaselberg gets out of this one. There's objective evidence he got benefits, there's objective evidence he didn't pay taxes on it (he even got $120k in refunds he didn't deserve because he lied on his taxes so hard) and there's objective evidence someone in his position should know you can't do that. Not that ignorance over 15 years of felonies is an excuse. Weaselberg is going to be convicted for larceny, fraud, and a few other things that will give him an effective life sentence.

The end.

Oh man, I believe I saw this before. In the movie Casino right? Where they arrest everybody?

You know, this scene: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b_0oVkgMHT0


Or is it going to be like this where they all show up as really sick old people in court before going to prison to die?

[Belize]

So gettr is using the friend finder strategy.

Gettr sounds like a redneck version of Grindr...

[Breccia]

Hoo boy. It's time again for Guess the Speaker! The topic, of courser, is the arrest of Weaselberg.

This is the political persecution of a political enemy. This is what Vladimir Putin does.

This is banana republic stuff and if our press was even a little bit intellectually honest, they would be calling it that

"Too nuanced for Trump, but clearly someone so far up his ass they could shampoo with Burger King fries."

It's Donnie Dum-Dum Jr.

"Wait, didn't Don Jr. meet with Russians in Trump Tower? Ones he thought were working with Putin?"

Yes.

"Hasn't Trump praised and/or defended Putin many times?"

Yes.

"Also, didn't Trump promise to prosecute Clinton, at a public debate, to the massive applause of his fans?"

Yes.

Once again I'll call upon Trump's supporters to "break the tie" as it were. Should Trump be condemned for threatening to prosecute a political opponent? Or should the current NY investigation and arrests be called fair and just? As always I'll give you 24 hours before your submission is overdue and I get to pick for you.

Also, Mary Trump thinks Trump's children are all willing and able to flip. I've always said they don't love Trump, they love his money. Mary Trump apparently agrees.

Also, hey @cubby we've known Trump hides his taxes even to the point of locking them in an IRS vault he had constructed. Is this what he was hiding? Or is it something much bigger, such as "Trump is poor"?

[gondrin]

Hoo boy. It's time again for Guess the Speaker! The topic, of courser, is the arrest of Weaselberg.



"Too nuanced for Trump, but clearly someone so far up his ass they could shampoo with Burger King fries."

It's Donnie Dum-Dum Jr.

"Wait, didn't Don Jr. meet with Russians in Trump Tower? Ones he thought were working with Putin?"

Yes.

"Hasn't Trump praised and/or defended Putin many times?"

Yes.

"Also, didn't Trump promise to prosecute Clinton, at a public debate, to the massive applause of his fans?"

Yes.

Once again I'll call upon Trump's supporters to "break the tie" as it were. Should Trump be condemned for threatening to prosecute a political opponent? Or should the current NY investigation and arrests be called fair and just? As always I'll give you 24 hours before your submission is overdue and I get to pick for you.

Also, Mary Trump thinks Trump's children are all willing and able to flip. I've always said they don't love Trump, they love his money. Mary Trump apparently agrees.

Also, hey @cubby we've known Trump hides his taxes even to the point of locking them in an IRS vault he had constructed. Is this what he was hiding? Or is it something much bigger, such as "Trump is poor"?

I'm going to go with the second option along with the receipt for that rug on his head. It would be the chef's kiss if it came out that he had Gallaghar hairstyle along with him being poor.

[Breccia]

More and more sources are weighing in, and like this NBC News article, most are saying the same thing: this case is black and white, textbook, blatant. There is no legal defense.

Simply put, the NY AG took their time and built up an airtight case before taking a swing at Trump Org. Fortunately, Trump Org is filled with criminals who left a paper trail.
f
I'm still not sure why Weaselberg would plead guilty, other than hoping the case gets dismissed on a technicality. Even stalling for time doesn't help him here. Nobody will loan money or do business with a company that's in court for theft, fraud, obstruction and not paying taxes. Well, not openly. I suppose it could be that Weaselberg thinks that even a reduced prison sentence will kill him, so why not at this point. But from what we've seen, he has zero chance on the merits, other than saying "Trump did it" which he's not doing.

[Elegiac]

More and more sources are weighing in, and like this NBC News article, most are saying the same thing: this case is black and white, textbook, blatant. There is no legal defense.

Simply put, the NY AG took their time and built up an airtight case before taking a swing at Trump Org. Fortunately, Trump Org is filled with criminals who left a paper trail.
f
I'm still not sure why Weaselberg would plead guilty, other than hoping the case gets dismissed on a technicality. Even stalling for time doesn't help him here. Nobody will loan money or do business with a company that's in court for theft, fraud, obstruction and not paying taxes. Well, not openly. I suppose it could be that Weaselberg thinks that even a reduced prison sentence will kill him, so why not at this point. But from what we've seen, he has zero chance on the merits, other than saying "Trump did it" which he's not doing.

Apropos of nothing, what are your feelings on the largest real estate company bankruptcy in US history being declared within the next few months?

Also, how do you feel about leading questions?

[Breccia]

Apropos of nothing, what are your feelings on the largest real estate company bankruptcy in US history being declared within the next few months?

It'll take longer than that, I think.

The monetary judgement against the company, for these current charges, won't be enough to kill them, or enough to declare bankruptcy to try to avoid them (not that it would work). The bankruptcy comes when Deutsche Bank says they want their money now, NY says we'd like those back taxes from mis-valued buildings, or my personal favorite both. Neither of which are on the schedule yet.

Also, how do you feel about leading questions?

YOU STOLE MY LINE

[beanman12345]

More and more sources are weighing in, and like this NBC News article, most are saying the same thing: this case is black and white, textbook, blatant. There is no legal defense.

Simply put, the NY AG took their time and built up an airtight case before taking a swing at Trump Org. Fortunately, Trump Org is filled with criminals who left a paper trail.
f
I'm still not sure why Weaselberg would plead guilty, other than hoping the case gets dismissed on a technicality. Even stalling for time doesn't help him here. Nobody will loan money or do business with a company that's in court for theft, fraud, obstruction and not paying taxes. Well, not openly. I suppose it could be that Weaselberg thinks that even a reduced prison sentence will kill him, so why not at this point. But from what we've seen, he has zero chance on the merits, other than saying "Trump did it" which he's not doing.

Was thinking, if he does take this to court, and goes with a trial, it might be slightly easier even if still near impossible time getting off the charges with juror trial, if he's found guilty, but I think the judge will be less lenient than if he just went with a straight judge decision trial, but even if he went with straight judge decision trial, the sentencing likely wouldn't be affected terribly much. Basically he's got 3 routes, 2 I mentioned fuck him hard. I'm fairly convinced they got trump dead to rights, and and am completely convinced with statements made in court that with the evidence the DA has, that if the DOJ charges trump they would also have a black and white textbook blatant case as you put it. Having W change his plea and turn states evidence, is about the only route that seems tenable for the old man. We have several more steps in this wrt to the trump org. Plus we haven't even gotten to charges that will be filed by the state, which is mostly civil.

The only silver lining is that they haven't been charged with bank fraud, yet, so Deutsche can't immediately pull in those hundreds of millions of loans, yet.

[Benggaul]

Thursday's report:

16,949 new cases; almost 1.5k more than last Thursday.

Top 5:

Fuck Florida.
Texas: 1,581 new cases; 33 deaths
California: 1,388 new cases; 66 deaths
Missouri: 1,291 new cases; 1 death
Arkansas: 700 new cases; no deaths reported

Florida's weekly report confirms their top spot remains legit, with extrapolated cases for Thursday topping 2k. Meanwhile DeathSantis continues crowing about how great Florida's COVID response and vaccination effort is...which, as the numbers attest, is fucking awful. Fuck Florida. Texas proved my statements yesterday right by bouncing back up above 1.5k and into the second spot. California continues to have a very slight increase over last week as the Delta variant causes issues throughout the nation. Missouri had their 3rd 1k+ day of the week as new cases keep rising. Depending on how the vaccination effort goes we might be bumping back up above 20k cases in a couple weeks courtesy of the Delta variant coupled with complacency.

315 deaths is about 50 fewer than last Thursday and brings the total to 620,645. California, Florida and Texas had the top three spots as expected. 9 states had double-digit totals on the day.

Related news:

Arkansas coronavirus cases reach new high for second day since the winter--They've been mentioned as one of the big trouble spots a few times the past couple weeks and they're proving that out more and more each day.

J&J: Coronavirus Vaccine Protects Against Delta Variant, Lasts at Least 8 Months--This is great news and should help in the fight against the mutations. The J&J "one and done" vaccine is preferable for many areas of the country where it's more difficult to get vaccines distributed/scheduled, so finding that it does not appear any less effective than the others in protecting against variants is fantastic.

What's at stake as dozens of states end daily COVID-19 data reports--Well, for one thing it means we'll have a lot less information to arm ourselves going forward. For another, and this probably comes as a positive to many of you, I'll be more hard-pressed to give daily reports. I already skip reports for Saturday and Sunday because half the nation no longer reports on those days, but as more and more (largely GOP-led) states decide COVID is no longer an issue (spoiler alert: it really, really still is) it's getting harder for me to sniff out the trends. I'd like to stop doing these reports because they're no longer necessary; not because the information is no longer being released in a timely fashion.

Stay safe, folks.

[beanman12345]

What's at stake as dozens of states end daily COVID-19 data reports--Well, for one thing it means we'll have a lot less information to arm ourselves going forward. For another, and this probably comes as a positive to many of you, I'll be more hard-pressed to give daily reports. I already skip reports for Saturday and Sunday because half the nation no longer reports on those days, but as more and more (largely GOP-led) states decide COVID is no longer an issue (spoiler alert: it really, really still is) it's getting harder for me to sniff out the trends. I'd like to stop doing these reports because they're no longer necessary; not because the information is no longer being released in a timely fashion.

Stay safe, folks.

Best time to cut it off the data, just as we see a 10% spike from a week ago.... I'm going forward assuming #1 cases on any list regardless of information proved or not is Fuck Florida going forward.

[DarkTZeratul]

The only silver lining is that they haven't been charged with bank fraud, yet, so Deutsche can't immediately pull in those hundreds of millions of loans, yet.

That "yet" is doing a huge amount of heavy lifting. As Kurt Eichenwald explained on Twitter, the fact that misreporting has even been alleged will almost certainly lead to everyone who loaned Trump money, including Deutsche, to immediately demand to review their books:

https://twitter.com/kurteichenwald/s...124707336?s=19

All bank loans with a business come with "lending covenants." These are basically a series of requirements, some of which include "you'll behave" in minor character. But *the most important part* of any loan covenant is the "books and records" portion. It is included in every covenant for a bank loan to a business. The terms are simple: You maintain truthful books and records, you attest to us that they are truthful, and we are allowed to review them at any time. There is no "You can lie *just a little bit* on your books and records", it's all or nothing, like pregnancy: You either are or you aren't. The books and records either are truthful or they aren't. ...Forget Weisselberg. That is every every corporate defendant, every entity that could have a loan covenant in its name. Every Trump Org bank lender in the world, right now, is looking at this indictment, looking at their covenants, and calling the Trump Org demanding they turn over every relevant book and record pertaining to these issues. If they refuse...BOOM. Loans pulled. If they do and the banks don't like what they see...BOOM. Loans pulled.

[beanman12345]

That "yet" is doing a huge amount of heavy lifting. As Kurt Eichenwald explained on Twitter, the fact that misreporting has even been alleged will almost certainly lead to everyone who loaned Trump money, including Deutsche, to immediately demand to review their books:

https://twitter.com/kurteichenwald/s...124707336?s=19

I agree it is doing a huge amount of heavy lifting because in this specific case it seems to be entirely reliant on it...
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/01/n...explained.html

The indictment is not likely to change the status of the Trump’s Organization’s roughly $330 million debt to Deutsche Bank, Mr. Trump’s primary lender. Officials at the bank have determined that it could demand immediate repayment of its loans to the company only if the Trump Organization were charged — and convicted — of bank-related fraud, according to a person familiar with the internal deliberations. The indictment released Thursday did not include those allegations.

However what you say is true in a general sense that nobody else is gonna be doing business with them, and other, relative to Deutsche, lesser lenders might not be beholden to that "yet."

[Breccia]

Isn’t DJTJ the next guy up the ladder in the Trump Org from their indicted CFO?

It's not a ladder. Ladders have only one narrow path up and down. This is stadium seating. Weaselberg is the front gate, then the Trumps are the next level up.

If Jr is next, so are Eric and Ivanka.

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"The indictment is not likely to change the status of the Trump’s Organization’s roughly $330 million debt to Deutsche Bank, Mr. Trump’s primary lender."

Directly, probably. But
1) Trump has a history of making lenders extend -- possibly because he also has a history of going bankrupt and lenders want first crack. Deutsche Bank, and everyone else I assume, is no longer interested in giving extensions. The big DB loan is due in 2024. By then, Trump could be in real trouble. Further, in 2024 Trump is likely campaigning either for himself (not likely) or for other people. His finances will be watched with massive oversight this time. He can't illegally use campaign contributions to pay Deutsche Bank. This is Trump's last company left, he doesn't want to declare bankruptcy -- but he may be running out of options. If Deutche Bank extends, they might be forfeiting any chance of getting anything at all, by putting themselves further back in line. They don't want that. They want their money.
2) Deutsche Bank was Trump's last resort for loans after going bankrupt six times. I would be surprised if there weren't extra lines fo fine print, extra protection and insurance for Deutsche Bank, which could easily include lines like "by the way, if you commit a felony with our money, we get it back immediately before you have to give it to the cops".

This is still early on, but Deutsche Bank (and who knows who else) should be circling like vultures right now.

[beanman12345]

It's not a ladder. Ladders have only one narrow path up and down. This is stadium seating. Weaselberg is the front gate, then the Trumps are the next level up.

If Jr is next, so are Eric and Ivanka.

- - - Updated - - -



Directly, probably. But
1) Trump has a history of making lenders extend -- possibly because he also has a history of going bankrupt and lenders want first crack. Deutsche Bank, and everyone else I assume, is no longer interested in giving extensions. The big DB loan is due in 2024. By then, Trump could be in real trouble. Further, in 2024 Trump is likely campaigning either for himself (not likely) or for other people. His finances will be watched with massive oversight this time. He can't illegally use campaign contributions to pay Deutsche Bank. This is Trump's last company left, he doesn't want to declare bankruptcy -- but he may be running out of options. If Deutche Bank extends, they might be forfeiting any chance of getting anything at all, by putting themselves further back in line. They don't want that. They want their money.
2) Deutsche Bank was Trump's last resort for loans after going bankrupt six times. I would be surprised if there weren't extra lines fo fine print, extra protection and insurance for Deutsche Bank, which could easily include lines like "by the way, if you commit a felony with our money, we get it back immediately before you have to give it to the cops".

This is still early on, but Deutsche Bank (and who knows who else) should be circling like vultures right now.

Maybe GETTR means Give Everything To TRump, because he's gonna need his cult to do so if he wants to continue.

[postman1782]

Maybe GETTR means Give Everything To TRump, because he's gonna need his cult to do so if he wants to continue.

And they have already started banning people. They banned Baked Alaska already, but he deserves to be in fucking prison for his role in the failed coup, especially since that fucker was supposed to be quarantined with Covid.

[Elegiac]

It'll take longer than that, I think.

The monetary judgement against the company, for these current charges, won't be enough to kill them, or enough to declare bankruptcy to try to avoid them (not that it would work). The bankruptcy comes when Deutsche Bank says they want their money now, NY says we'd like those back taxes from mis-valued buildings, or my personal favorite both. Neither of which are on the schedule yet.

There's reason to believe that schedule might have been accelerated, according to Kurt Eichenwald:

As someone who has written for decades about corporate crime, I was reading the Trump O/Weisselberg indictment going "Yeah okay..hm..yah..ok..Wait..HOLY SHIT!" The Trump Org is in deep, deep trouble. And not because of the criminal charges. Because of its bank loan covenants. In fact, if even the smallest bit of this case is true, I think the Trump Org could be dead. It's complicated but it primarily pertains to the 12th count of the indictment.

Taking this a step at a time: Like most real estate companies, the Trump Org is horribly illiquid. This means it cannot readily convert its assets into cash when needed. Worse, because of the incredible incompetence and business idiocy of Trump, cash on hand (and access rapid loans through what is known as the commercial paper market) is small. So, the company survives on loans against assets. Trump originally depended on bank loans, then jumped into high-yield (junk) bond market, which is why so many of his businesses went bankrupt. Junk bonds gave him lots of cash to spend, but he was too stupid to apply an analysis beyond "I'm great" to figure out how we was going to generate enough cash to pay interest on the bonds. He couldn't. With his dad, he tried laundering the money through Trump Castle to get past a requirement with his bank loans brought on by his junk debt, but got caught. Everything crashed down. So the bottom line... Trump knows how to borrow money, he doesn't know how to manage it.

Then came The Apprentice which gave him lots of cash. Of course, he spent it all, then used the assets he purchased as security to borrow from banks on the assumption that "I'm great" would fix any cash flow problems. He now has huge amounts of debt against assets that are plummeting in value because of January 6 and his toxic brand name. He *needed* the presidency to survive financially. I have always believed that is why he was so desperate to keep it, because if he was President he could hit up the Russians, Saudis, etc. to bail him out. Now with him toxic and a threat to the country, those nations know that any secret payments they make to him run a huge risk of being discovered.

Which brings us to today's charges. All bank loans come with a business come with "lending covenants" - these are basically a series of requirements, some of which include "you'll behave" in minor character. But *the most important part* of any loan covenant is the "books and records" portion. It is included in every covenant for a bank loan to a business. The terms are simple: you maintain truthful books and records, you attest to us that they are truthful, and we are allowed to review them at any time. There is no "You can lie *just a little bit* on your books and records" it's all or nothing, like pregnancy: you either are or you aren't. The books and records either are truthful, or they aren't. Which brings us to count 12.

Forget Weisselberg. That is every corporate defendant, every entity that could have a loan covenant in its name. Every Trump Org bank lender in the world, right now, is looking at this indictment, looking at their covenants, and calling the Trump Org demanding they turn over every relevant book and record pertaining to these issues. If they refuse... BOOM. Loans pulled. If they do and the banks don't like what they see... BOOM. Loans pulled. If the loans come due (which 100s of millions do next year) no way they get refinanced.

There may be something I'm missing here, but I do not see how the Trump Org survives this without some sort of corrupt deal overseas. But even that seems farfetched. Instead, it may be the biggest real estate corp bankruptcy in history.

TLDR: The indictment itself is sufficient grounds for lenders to cancel the loans on grounds of covenant breach and say "we want our money now".

[Breccia]

All bank loans come with a business come with "lending covenants"

That's an important, relevant piece of information from an experienced source.

So um...

what are your feelings on the largest real estate company bankruptcy in US history being declared within the next few months?

I'm not changing my answer yet buuuuuuut it could be closer to 1 year than 3.

[postman1782]

So, when they say it's a they're as full of shit as anyone in their right mind could have expected? Who'd have guessed a platform against "cancelling" people and censorship would in fact be OK with both those things.

Yep. https://www.rawstory.com/baked-alaska-trump/

Just hilarious, but then again, almost every single right wing hate app like this, Parler, Gab, FrankSpeech, or whatever, have all banned left leaning people because they don't like facts or other shit.