Mega-Thread: Trump Focused Discussion

[Omega10]

25 days is a long time for "if this trend continues". Hopefully Houston intentionally breaks this model by being safe.

25 days is not very far away. Much of this chart is already baked in. And mitigating the end part of it will not be trivial, especially with Abbot as governor spreading interference for the virus.

My hope is that some of their assumptions end up not being quite accurate. What I find interesting is how expectations have changed.

It started as fall will be fine. Then - well maybe not fine, but not so bad. Then highly unlikely to be as bad as the last wave. Now 3x as bad as last wave. Eventually a prediction will end up not happening.

Bad numbers are not unique to Houston. And I find a recent post from Gaidax in the Coronavirus thread quite chilling.

4th wave time.

All 60+ can now get 3rd Phizer injection, provided they had their last at least 5 months ago.

Numbers overall don't look good and there is a talk of hard lockdown during national holidays in September.

The above post is about Israel, which is a model country when it comes to vaccinations and reasonably good about masks and social distancing.

Finally - these are reported numbers not actual numbers. The actual number of people that die from the virus will be quite a bit higher than the reported numbers due to effective under-counting of both cases and deaths.

Edit: oh yeah, here in Georgia people are doubling down on not wearing masks and not social distancing, and actively protesting the few mask mandates that are in place. This seems to be the current national mood at this time. Presumably these behaviors will change soon.

[Breccia]

And yet... how long does it take measures being taken to have an actual effect?

The incubation time is 5-14 days, so...14 days. The UT prediction goes almost double that. Yes, Houston can slow that curve. They will have to try.

[PhaelixWW]

The incubation time is 5-14 days, so...14 days. The UT prediction goes almost double that. Yes, Houston can slow that curve. They will have to try.

Measures will not start tomorrow. And it takes some time for people to get used to following the measures, even assuming that they're willing.

People en masse don't just change behavior overnight.

And people don't go to the ICU right away, so you're talking incubation time (median 4-5 days) + time from symptoms to ICU (median 9-12 days), which is more like 2-3 weeks, realistically.

[Breccia]

People en masse don't just change behavior overnight.

Oh, you didn't ask that part If the people of Houston start to realize they're killing themselves, a more realistic estimate would be a less-steep curve. Nobody's expecting them to reverse course entirely.

[Kaleredar]

The incubation time is 5-14 days, so...14 days. The UT prediction goes almost double that. Yes, Houston can slow that curve. They will have to try.

I'd expect Houston, being a major city, to have a larger liberal population and therefore a statistically more reasoned response than the rest of Texas. So hopefull they'll take actions to do something about it.

...Assuming the Texas governor doesn't prevent them from doing so in an effort to maintain the illusion of normalcy.

[PhaelixWW]

Oh, you didn't ask that part If the people of Houston start to realize they're killing themselves, a more realistic estimate would be a less-steep curve. Nobody's expecting them to reverse course entirely.

I didn't mean to imply a course reversal. But even a small measure implementation will take a little time to trickle down to everyone.

[starlord]

I'd expect Houston, being a major city, to have a larger liberal population and therefore a statistically more reasoned response than the rest of Texas. So hopefull they'll take actions to do something about it.

...Assuming the Texas governor doesn't prevent them from doing so in an effort to maintain the illusion of normalcy.

idk about liberal, but it's one of the more minority heavy cities in texas.

austin is the most liberal area.

[Omega10]

I'd expect Houston, being a major city, to have a larger liberal population and therefore a statistically more reasoned response than the rest of Texas. So hopefull they'll take actions to do something about it.

...Assuming the Texas governor doesn't prevent them from doing so in an effort to maintain the illusion of normalcy.

It takes a while to get republican governors to flip. The Arkansas governor did, presumably the Texas one will eventually. However, it's likely it will be too late by then.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/th...edgdhp&pc=U531

Title: This Arkansas hospital is so short on nurses in this newest Covid-19 surge, it's offering a $25,000 signing bonus

The excerpts speak for themselves. Part of it is flat out fatigue, part of it is who wants to risk their lives trying to help someone who refused to take obvious proper precautions?

Not only that, but seeing constant death, working long shifts and having a shortage of health care staff -- specifically nurses -- have left Gardner burnt out.

"I've had moments where I've sat in my car and cried before I came to work, before I came in. I've ... literally just sat there and cried because I didn't know what I was coming into," she said.

Burnout and staffing shortages are plaguing Arkansas' health care system in addition to the new Covid-19 Delta variant. Staffing shortages are affecting morale to the point that some employees are walking off on the job in the middle of their shifts, said Dr. Cam Patterson, UAMS chancellor. Others have contemplated retiring early.

UAMS currently has about 360 vacancies for health care providers, including 230 vacancies just for nurses, Patterson said. UAMS is so desperate to find nursing staff that it is willing to pay signing bonuses of as much as $25,000 -- but some medical personnel say it's not about the money, but about their health and mental well-being, and that no amount of money can change that.

Greg Thompson, executive director for Metropolitan Emergency Medical Services (MEMS) that provides emergency and non-emergency ambulance service for central Arkansas, told CNN his business has seen a steady increase in calls "almost daily" over the past two months. The number of calls has increased 25-40% some days, he said.

"Normally we'll run about 300, 400 calls a day, and our transports are normally about 200. We're running about 260 or more day right now," Thompson said.

Then when the ambulances arrive to the hospital, there aren't enough beds, causing ambulances to become temporary hospital rooms.

"There's times when we get into the ER and there's just not a bed, so we'll just have to hold the patient on our bed against the wall, waiting on something to clear up so that they can get them off," he said. "Normally we should be able to get out of the hospital in less than 30 minutes. But sometimes we're seeing some extremes of an hour to three hours."

The UAMS health professionals who spoke to CNN said most of the patients they're seeing are not vaccinated and that it pains them not seeing people wear masks in public.

"It does become infuriating. I don't know if I can necessarily be angry at the patient themselves, or to the general public," said Dr. Marc Phan, a UAMS emergency room and intensive care unit physician. "I think we just need to not necessarily ignore that side of it, but embrace them, try to bring them in, and try to tell them the importance of the vaccine and how it can change their life."

This last step seems to be getting harder for nurses to get to:

Gardner, the UAMS nurse, said she often wonders as she's treating patients why people don't get vaccinated. She said she understands, though, that she has to put her biases aside "because at the end of the day, that's your patient, that's their choice."

"As nurses we have a job to do," she said. "We can't let that dictate how we feel and how we treat them."

[Breccia]

But even a small measure implementation will take a little time to trickle down to everyone.

Doesn't need to happen to everyone. Anyone who looks around and says "oh shit, this is actually a real problem" helps. The more, the better.

[Omega10]

Doesn't need to happen to everyone. Anyone who looks around and says "oh shit, this is actually a real problem" helps. The more, the better.

Fingers crossed that enough do.

[Kaleredar]

idk about liberal, but it's one of the more minority heavy cities in texas.

austin is the most liberal area.

But it's going to be a more liberal area than your backroad hick town where they think the vaccine is an invention by Bill Gates to infect them with 5G.

And the more liberal an area is, the more likely they are to follow mask mandates and have a higher rate of vaccination. The single two most mitigating factors for COVID bar none, and the ones conservatives lag most significantly behind in both in accurate messaging and in actually doing.

[starlord]

But it's going to be a more liberal area than your backroad hick town where they think the vaccine is an invention by Bill Gates to infect them with 5G.

And the more liberal an area is, the more likely they are to follow mask mandates and have a higher rate of vaccines.

houstons an oil town, though looking at the charts it looks like its leaning about 50/50 in recent times compared to when i was last in the area.
just saying, don't get your hopes too high. but maybe we will be pleasantly surprised.

[gondrin]

UPDATE: Trump describes Wright's loss as a win for Trump, despite endorsing Wright who lost.

No, really.



"Well why didn't the Democrats vote for a Democrat?"

It was a special election. Wright and Ellzey were the only two running.

So, yes, Trump is claiming victory because of a race in which he backed the only candidate who lost. Just a reminder to all those members of Team Trump: if you lose, you mean nothing to him. He's also bragging about picking one of the two winners of a two-person race.

@TexasRules you're from the state in question and have been active recently. You're also a proven Trump supporter. Perhaps you'd care to weigh in on how Trump, having backed the only candidate who didn't win? Oh, and don't bother saying "it's because a Republican won" because both candidates were Republicans and that was a given at the outset, yet Trump still picked one. Or, you could remain silent and I will interpret this silence as "Trump was lying to soothe his poor fragile snowflake ego".

Well, Trump is going full on Monty Python with this. Or maybe it is Kung Pow

[Fugus]

But it's going to be a more liberal area than your backroad hick town where they think the vaccine is an invention by Bill Gates to infect them with 5G.

And the more liberal an area is, the more likely they are to follow mask mandates and have a higher rate of vaccination. The single two most mitigating factors for COVID bar none, and the ones conservatives lag most significantly behind in both in accurate messaging and in actually doing.

My god, I used to think that was mostly a joke till I had to deal with family literally making that claim a few days ago.... Didn't mention the 5g part, he mentioned Bill Gates and population control as to why he didn't want to "Let his kids take a government manufactured vaccine for a government manufactured virus".....

[Masark]

My god, I used to think that was mostly a joke till I had to deal with family literally making that claim a few days ago.... Didn't mention the 5g part, he mentioned Bill Gates and population control as to why he didn't want to "Let his kids take a government manufactured vaccine for a government manufactured virus".....

Even if it was initially a joke, it is impossible to make a parody of conspiracy theories that someone won't start believing in.

[PhaelixWW]

My god, I used to think that was mostly a joke till I had to deal with family literally making that claim a few days ago.... Didn't mention the 5g part, he mentioned Bill Gates and population control as to why he didn't want to "Let his kids take a government manufactured vaccine for a government manufactured virus".....

I weep for this country.

[Azadina]

My god, I used to think that was mostly a joke till I had to deal with family literally making that claim a few days ago.... Didn't mention the 5g part, he mentioned Bill Gates and population control as to why he didn't want to "Let his kids take a government manufactured vaccine for a government manufactured virus".....

I presume a question was asked of him "how fucked in the head are you?". Riiight?

[Benggaul]

The incubation time is 5-14 days, so...14 days. The UT prediction goes almost double that. Yes, Houston can slow that curve. They will have to try.

I'd expect Houston, being a major city, to have a larger liberal population and therefore a statistically more reasoned response than the rest of Texas. So hopefull they'll take actions to do something about it.

...Assuming the Texas governor doesn't prevent them from doing so in an effort to maintain the illusion of normalcy.

Look at California. Never underestimate the ability of a minority of Trumpers to fuck things up for the majority. Houston (Harris county) voted for Biden, but something like 700k voted for Trump. That's plenty of people who apparently believe in conspiracy theories or are just have fucked up priorities--enough to cause problems.

[Ursus]

https://www.businessinsider.com/dona...p-cards-2021-8

Donald Trump wants his supporters to carry "Trump Cards."

Trump's PAC sent two emails on Wednesday asking supporters to get on board with carrying the red-and-gold cards, which look like credit cards and bear the former president's signature.

"The card you select will be carried by Patriots all around the Country," the first email said. "They will be a sign of your dedicated support to our movement to SAVE AMERICA, and I'm putting my full trust in you."

The Trump team said in a follow-up email, "We're about to launch our Official Trump Cards, which will be reserved for President Trump's STRONGEST supporters."

"We recently met with the President in his Florida office and showed him four designs," the email continued. "Originally we were planning on releasing just one design, but when President Trump saw the cards on his desk, he said, 'These are BEAUTIFUL. We should let the American People decide - they ALWAYS know best!'"

The emails did not outline exactly what entitled one to carry a "Trump Card." Clicking on the link to vote for a design led to a fundraising page.

"We should let the American People decide - they ALWAYS know best!" LMAO. Yeah that totally sounds like something Trump would say.

[Benggaul]

Wednesday's report:

112,279 new cases; about 26k more than last Wednesday.

Top 10:

Fuck Florida (again about 17k according to worldometers)
Texas: 12,334 new cases; 70 deaths
California: 10,909 new cases; 59 deaths
Georgia: 4,860 new cases; 12 deaths
Louisiana: 4,779 new cases; 44 deaths
Missouri: 4,488 new cases; still not reporting deaths
Tennessee: 3,798 new cases; 9 deaths
North Carolina: 3,413 new cases; 21 deaths
New York: 3,261 new cases; 8 deaths
Arkansas: 2,838 new cases; 15 deaths

As I said yesterday, Georgia's total for Tuesday appears to have been a correction, but they're still in the top 5. Florida continues showing the nation how not to deal with a pandemic. Texas says "hold my steer". I was expecting California to be worse off by now if I'm honest, but I guess maybe re-instituting mask mandates in crowded LA County helped mitigate things a little--despite what some seem to think about the efficacy of preventative measures. I'm sure their numbers will continue to climb as time goes on, but so far it hasn't been the steep spikes states like Florida and Louisiana have seen. Remember that map I posted showing Louisiana as "Very high" risk? Add Florida to that category now as well, though their positivity of 18.8% isn't the worst in the nation. That "honor" belongs to Alabama with 23.7%. Yes, nearly 1 in 4 tests comes back positive. For comparison, California is at 5.9% and New York is at 3.1%. No, it's not just the hot weather chasing people indoors causing the South to spike or else California would be doing equally as poor. Precautions matter.

656 deaths is about 150 more than last Wednesday and brings the total to 631,299. Florida's total (140) doubled second-place Texas' total (70) with California in third. If that reads like a sporting competition that's just because Florida sure seems to be treating it like one. The 7-day average for the nation is now over 400 and climbing. That's still way down from previous waves, thankfully, but doesn't excuse the fact that a lot of them were preventable.

Related news:

Mississippi Left With Six ICU Beds As Delta Variant Soars Among Unvaccinated--That's not a typo. 6 beds left in the entire state.

US planning to expand coronavirus testing, Fauci says--This is good, but it's a bit late. When states like Alabama, Texas and Florida are seeing positivity around 15-25% then they are already doing FAR too little testing; that's not likely to change regardless of the efforts of the federal government. Florida's testing took a hit last year when they removed several temporary testing centers in the path of a tropical storm--and then never reopened them. They could have; they should have; they just didn't.

DeSantis-Biden sniping underscores COVID-19 frustration

"Joe Biden suggests that if you don't do lockdown policies, then you should 'get out of the way.' But let me tell you this: If you're coming after the rights of parents in Florida, I'm standing in your way. I'm not going to let you get away with it," the Florida governor said.

So, yeah, this is DeathSantis saying it's the parent's right to let their child die to COVID because he banned mask mandates including schools. Just saying. There's nothing in Biden's statements taking away the "rights of parents" whatever the fuck that means. This is just a continuation of the Trump-era policy of making up complete bullshit to deflect blame from himself. Fuck DeathSantis.

Stay safe, folks.

- - - Updated - - -

"We should let the American People decide - they ALWAYS know best!" LMAO. Yeah that totally sounds like something Trump would say.

So, Trump wants his cult to identify themselves with bright red symbols and eagle icons. Where have we seen this before?