Mega-Thread: Trump Focused Discussion

[jonnysensible]

Trump would’ve seen Ukraine surrender in those three days.

Ukraine wouldn't have surrendered they would have gone elsewhere for arms. You don't really have the choice of surrendering when you are facing a genocide.

[Kaleredar]

Ukraine wouldn't have surrendered they would have gone elsewhere for arms. You don't really have the choice of surrendering when you are facing a genocide.

I suppose I should rephrase:

"Trump would've liked to see Ukraine surrender in those three days." And I'm sure he would have been vehemently against the US imposing any sanctions on Russia. Try and spin the narrative of being in support of Ukraine as being "political" and "democrat vs Republican" to keep the political sides from coming to agreement in support of Ukraine. And the GOP, the spineless, feckless cowards they are, would have fallen in line. Any talk of Russian war crimes would be met with "fake mainstream media" and "can't verify for sure"s.

Basically, all the talking points our Russian shills engaged in before they were sent on permanent forum vacations. Their playbook is Trump's playbook as far as Russia is concerned.

[s_bushido]

People look at it as a war in another country and we are flipping the bill. This is a win. Military Aid even this complex of us saving the world does not work for most Americans.

Even if this shit were true, literally all the other guy would have to do is ask: "What's your alternative? Let Russia invade and destroy whoever they want?" And even if the US were footing this bill entirely on its own, it's simple to point out that for a fraction of our military spending, we've enabled Ukraine to embarrass Russia on basically every front.

The Russia/Ukraine thing is not a winning strategy for isolationist conservative shitgibbons.

[Evil Midnight Bomber]

I don't think Trump can match the success he had in 2016. Lots of fence-sitters likely said "he can't be that bad, also fuck Hillary".

Significantly less fence-sitters today, I would guess.

Again, not factually true...he had more people vote for him in 2020 than he did in 2016.

2016: 62 million votes.
2020: 74 milliion votes.

People need to stop thinking "Trump can't win"...that's exactly how he won in 2016.

[Benggaul]

Again, not factually true...he had more people vote for him in 2020 than he did in 2016.

2016: 62 million votes.
2020: 74 milliion votes.

People need to stop thinking "Trump can't win"...that's exactly how he won in 2016.

Eh, that was before Jan 6th, the mountain of top secret docs extracted from Mar-A-Lago, the recent sexual battery case, the upcoming Georgia election interference case, etc. etc.. While I'm never going to say he can't win--because I don't underestimate how fucking stupid/ignorant/bigoted many voters are coupled with how fucked voter suppression is in many states--I don't see him hitting those same numbers in 2024. On the flip side of the coin, I don't see Biden getting as many votes either, so while I'm slightly more confident this year than in 2020, I still feel it's going to be a white-knuckle week of vote-counting again.

I know none of the heinous shit Trump did while in office seemed to move the needle in terms of losing supporters, but ever since he's been out of office a LOT of people have been taking surreptitious steps back, whistling innocently and trying desperately to pretend they never had anything to do with him. I won't discount the circling of the wagons that will occur once he's won the primary and is the official candidate, but I'm thinking it's going to be slightly more anemic this time around.

[Evil Midnight Bomber]

Eh, that was before Jan 6th, the mountain of top secret docs extracted from Mar-A-Lago, the recent sexual battery case, the upcoming Georgia election interference case, etc. etc.. While I'm never going to say he can't win--because I don't underestimate how fucking stupid/ignorant/bigoted many voters are coupled with how fucked voter suppression is in many states--I don't see him hitting those same numbers in 2024. On the flip side of the coin, I don't see Biden getting as many votes either, so while I'm slightly more confident this year than in 2020, I still feel it's going to be a white-knuckle week of vote-counting again.

He's survived scandals before. Remember after the access hollywood video was released and even some Republicans were like "There's no way he can survive this...we have to jump off this boat immediately". Democrats started thinking "We were already feeling very confident Hillary would win... but she has this in the bag now".

All it takes is a little bit of complacency...and Trump could be in the White House again.

"Let not any one pacify his conscience by the delusion that he can do no harm if he takes no part, and forms no opinion. Bad men need nothing more to compass their ends, than that good men should look on and do nothing. He is not a good man who, without a protest, allows wrong to be committed in his name, and with the means which he helps to supply, because he will not trouble himself to use his mind on the subject.”
- John Stuart Mill

- - - Updated - - -

Good points, but honestly I think it comes down to this, considering the quoted arguments - Trump is now a known commodity in politics. He wasn't in 2016. His persona is all he's got. I contend that enough people are tired of it, whether they're Republicans, or non-Republicans that finally realized after 2016 that he's a colossal fuckup and then voted for Biden in 2020 to stop the madness.

If you're putting your hope in that Republicans will vote for Biden again.... you've already gotten too complacent. 74 million people still voted for Trump in 2020. Yes, Biden got more... but Trump still received the second most votes for President of all time. That means more people voted for Trump than Obama.

[Evil Midnight Bomber]

Oh I didn't mean vote for Biden. I mean stay home. Anecdotal, I have 2 family members that stayed home in 2020, because they refuse to vote anything but Republican, but they did not like Trump enough to check that box. In Alabama.

We have to remember that Biden won. Yes Trump got more votes than 2016, but so did Democrats. Given the pandemic and events leading up to the election, it was put up or shut up with voters. 17 million more put up in 2020 that shut up in 2016. Or something along those lines.

I'm not really putting up any good factual information am I? LOL. It's definitely a "feel" thing. Yes another Trump term will likely kill this country, so I'm certainly not complacent. I'm just more confident for 2024 than 2020.

Yeah, a lot of Republicans didn't want to vote for Trump in 2020...and he still got 74 million votes.

2020 Biden voters can decide to stay home on 2024 if they think "Oh, it's just Trump...he can't win". Biden isn't anywhere near as popular today as he was in 2020. People thought there was no way Trump could win in 2016 too. Some democrats stayed home in 2016 because they wouldn't vote for anyone but a democrat and they wouldn't vote for Hillary.

You have to remember that Biden won because people weren't complacent enough to let Trump get a second term. Don't get complacent on 2024.

If I'm wrong...the worst thing that happens is that more people show up to keep Trump out of the White House than strictly necessary. If I'm right, Trump gets another 4 years as President.

[beanman12345]

Oh I didn't mean vote for Biden. I mean stay home. Anecdotal, I have 2 family members that stayed home in 2020, because they refuse to vote anything but Republican, but they did not like Trump enough to check that box. In Alabama.

We have to remember that Biden won. Yes Trump got more votes than 2016, but so did Democrats. Given the pandemic and events leading up to the election, it was put up or shut up with voters. 17 million more put up in 2020 that shut up in 2016. Or something along those lines.

I'm not really putting up any good factual information am I? LOL. It's definitely a "feel" thing. Yes another Trump term will likely kill this country, so I'm certainly not complacent. I'm just more confident for 2024 than 2020.

I'm more confident especially after 2022 election, I mean that was really just horrible for MAGAts, but feel less complacent. Like if Trump wins, yeah it's over for this country. But I'm more hopeful about this election because if he loses again, after losing in 2020, and without FOX(likely) to go on with his lies and BS that he actually won this time, I think the narrative and loyalty towards Trump by those on the right, will start shifting dramatically away. I know 2020 was make or break, but this one feels even more so.

[beanman12345]

One thing I think we as Americans cannot forget, the troglodytes won't go away. They won't be converted or realize the errors of their ways. Whether it was slavery, civil rights, womens rights, gun rights, they're always there.

I will give you this though - it will certainly provide a short-term sigh of relief. My worry is that Trump loses again, and the Democrats just sit and do what they've been doing the past 30 years, thinking they've slayed the dragon. Leading to another Trump when you are I are dead and gone. But I guess that can be said about any society in any democratic country in any time period.

I think the power vacuum will be immense. If DeSantis runs this go around like he apparently plans to, there isn't really anyone who can fill that void so easily. That's when the decay of the party will really show, because one thing I know is most of these people do not like each other, the only thing they like less is those of us who are sane.

[Evil Midnight Bomber]

One thing I think we as Americans cannot forget, the troglodytes won't go away. They won't be converted or realize the errors of their ways. Whether it was slavery, civil rights, womens rights, gun rights, they're always there.

This is all I'm trying to say. That's why one can never be complacent.

- - - Updated - - -

the only thing they like less is those of us who are sane.

That's all they need. The whole "[insert embarassing or harmful thing here] to own the libs" started specifically because of Trump.

It's more important to them that you lose than it is that they win.

[Benggaul]

All it takes is a little bit of complacency...and Trump could be in the White House again.

Good thing I'm not advocating for complacency then. All I'm saying is I doubt he'll get the support he had in 2020--and Biden won't get as much either. So as far as I'm concerned Biden will still need every vote he can get.

[Evil Midnight Bomber]

Good thing I'm not advocating for complacency then. All I'm saying is I doubt he'll get the support he had in 2020--and Biden won't get as much either. So as far as I'm concerned Biden will still need every vote he can get.

That's really all I'm trying to say. So no beef from me.

My original comment was directed at the person that said "no one willingly believes Trump" which is dangerously complacent.

[Jaransan]

That's really all I'm trying to say. So no beef from me.

My original comment was directed at the person that said "no one willingly believes Trump" which is dangerously complacent.

See thats the scariest part - I think that almost no one in politics DOES willingly believe Trump. That’s what makes the fact they support him anyway even scarier.

[Evil Midnight Bomber]

See thats the scariest part - I think that almost no one in politics DOES willingly believe Trump. That’s what makes the fact they support him anyway even scarier.

Well, if we're talking only about the people in politics... that's a different thing. I'm sure some of them actually do believe in at least some of what he says...but most probably are just riding the grift.

74 million people believed he was a better choice for President than Joe Biden.... how that transfers to how much they believe in the things he says and does I couldn't say... but the things he says and does certainly aren't a deterrent for them.

The people that stormed the capitol building on Jan. 6... they definitely believe him. They soaked up every word.

[Huehuecoyotl]

Again, not factually true...he had more people vote for him in 2020 than he did in 2016.

2016: 62 million votes.
2020: 74 milliion votes.

People need to stop thinking "Trump can't win"...that's exactly how he won in 2016.

Literally every sitting president since Reagan that has stood for a second term got significantly more votes the second election compared to the first. This isn't anything that is uniquely Trumpian.

He isn't going to get the same bump in his numbers if he stands against Biden in 2024, while Biden will. The information you provided here is actually an argument for why he can't win in 2024. Not why he can.

[Flarelaine]

Touche. It certainly feels like there are less vocal Trump supporters overall. Or maybe they finally shut the fuck up?

Separation of discussion spaces has increased. They are still out there, but they either avoid spaces where they might come across differing opinions or have made themselves unwelcome.

[Evil Midnight Bomber]

Literally every sitting president since Reagan that has stood for a second term got significantly more votes the second election compared to the first. This isn't anything that is uniquely Trumpian.

He isn't going to get the same bump in his numbers if he stands against Biden in 2024, while Biden will. The information you provided here is actually an argument for why he can't win in 2024. Not why he can.

He didn't just get more votes for his second term... he broke a record for most votes ever. Yes, Biden did even better... but if you look at those 74 million votes for Trump and say "Nah, there's nothing to worry about"... you're being dangerously naive.

And I wouldn't count on Biden getting the same bump in 2024 either. He's not nearly as popular today as he was in 2020. Overall, I expect voter engagement to be lower in 2024 than in 2020. And Democrats do much better with higher engagement.

Let me leave you with a final thought

If I'm wrong... the worst thing that happens is Biden wins harder than he needed to
But If I'm right... enjoy 4 more years of Trump.

I'll be happy to be proven wrong... but, as I keep saying, no one thought Trump could win in 2016 either.

[Shadowferal]

While I do recall well the complacency in 2016, things have changed in a bigly way.
The gop have split, not a big split sure, but enough. The more "moderate" gop aren't as uncertain about Trump and what he might do for the party as they were then. MAGA candidates have been defeated in almost every race, primary or other. He's a proven unapologetic liar, a grifter that demands to be paid while never paying for anything. A twice impeached indicted felon.

Now I'd repeat my own caution about complacency echoing what I posted back in 2015-2016, but by now everyone sees this former emperor with his old clothes...and a penis I know I'd prefer to forget the description of, and he is very ugly to most.
Trump has an uphill battle. I've doubts that the RNC will be supportive, which means he'd have to go the 3rd party route. He'll be further hobbled if he's in an orange jumpsuit by then.

[Evil Midnight Bomber]

Well, all I can say is this:

I'll be happier to be wrong than you guys will be if you are.

I just don't see any harm in treating Trump like he's a credible threat... why take the chance?

[Gorsameth]

Yeah I fully expect Trump to be the Republican nominee and to get equal or close to the votes he did in 2020.
It doesn't matter if he is Trump, what matters is that there is an R next to his name on the ballet.