Well well well.
Another week, another indicement. So the world turns.
Well well well.
Another week, another indicement. So the world turns.
Yeah, the “he’s the former president who has considerable pull in the conservative spheres” is more the factor here.
I doubt trump’s probably also wealthy but far less publicly influential cohorts would get whatever relatively rosy situation trump would be handed, should they be convicted.
“Do not lose time on daily trivialities. Do not dwell on petty detail. For all of these things melt away and drift apart within the obscure traffic of time. Live well and live broadly. You are alive and living now. Now is the envy of all of the dead.” ~ Emily3, World of Tomorrow
Words to live by.
When TheHill (or others) posts an article saying that the GOP knows they can't win without Trump's cult voting for them, it means nothing -- we all already knew that.
However, this specific article has an interesting figure:
First of all, it's always nice to see respected publications citing respected experts who confirm what we've been saying.GOP strategists say there’s growing concern that if Trump is not the nominee, many of his core supporters, who are estimated to make up 25 percent to 35 percent of the party base, “will take their ball and go home.”
Brian Darling, a Republican strategist and former Senate aide, said there would be significant political fallout for Republicans if federal and local criminal prosecutions derail Trump’s path to the nomination.
“If somehow he’s not the nominee, it will hurt turnout,” he said. “He’s got a unique coalition. He brings a lot of nontraditional voters to the Republican Party, and it will be difficult to win a state like Ohio” and other Midwestern states “if you lose all those Trump voters or make them disaffected voters, and they don’t show up.”
Second of all, "many" of 25 to 35 percent not voting would be an insurmountable obstacle for either party. Even if that turned out to be 10% of that candidate's voters, if you drop that much from the winner, every election from 2000 on gets flipped with the possible exception of 2008. I think Obama could have lost a few close states but still gotten 270, but I'll be honest, I only spot-checked a few.
Third of all, and speaking of "from 2000 on", we now have a better grasp as to Trump as a third party. Obviously there is no other candidate like Trump, a known con man, adulterer, failure of a husband, failure of a father, failure of a businessman for decades, failure in the WH, committed treason in broad daylight, and arrested 100 times. But let's follow those numbers and say he leaves the GOP and takes 35% (the maximum) with him.
Now, re-examine the 1992 election. H. Ross Perot actually did almost exactly that, as he got one-half the votes Bush did, which is a 2:1 ratio. And Perot got exactly 0 E.C. votes.
(1996 is an example of what happens if you steal even fewer votes. I'm guessing some of you voted in 1996 and legit forgot Perot ran a second time)
Anyone who's even casually looked at American politics knows 1992 was our nation's great experiment of a major third party running in a system that doesn't like third parties. Perot both did amazingly well and also got fucking massacred at the same time. If the US had almost any form of ranked-choice system, yes there are multiple types, then Bush wins 1992.
But we don't.
And fourth of all: that expert I quoted said of Trump voters "they don't show up". Grab a state at random, and--
"Ohio."
Okay, Ohio. Now, re-run, say, the 2022 Senate election with the Vance losing 10% (the lower threshold used earlier) of their votes. This is far easier to do because it's a straight-up popular vote. And Vance loses by the population of a Cleveland Browns crowd.
"Sold out?"
It's the Browns, so, no.
This won't work in solid Red states, but you know who isn't as solid red as they'd like? Texas. Re-do the above, Cruz and Cornyn both go home empty-handed.
This is what the GOP is worried about. They're not just looking at losing the WH in 2024. They're looking at losing the House and Senate. And ejecting Trump will do that.
The RNC has three options, and because of their choice in 2016, they are all bad.
1) As suggested above, if the RNC ejects Trump and Trump runs third-party, they lose everything in 2024, tell their voters "we told you so" and hope 2028 somehow doesn't involve Trump.
2) If they instead embrace Trump in every single way, it's still fairly forseeable that Trump's criminal words and actions damage him irrepably in 2024, but they could still get the House and/or the Senate by also embracing Trump's crazy followers who run in those races.
3) The best possible result for the RNC is if Trump is, somehow, so badly damaged that his supporters leave Trump and return to the main party. Based on the way Trump handles things, this seems horrifyingly unlikely while Trump is both alive and not behind bars. The RNC isn't going to assassinate Trump -- say what you want about them, classic conservatives are still Americans and they won't engage in violent terrorism. But they can withhold donations which would go to his legal funds.
In fact, I think they have already started. Over the last few months, I'm hardly the only person posting stories of donors looking the other way. This NYTimes article from 3 days ago spells out that Trump's PAC is spending more than it's earning, and yes, that's mostly going to legal fees. Personally, I think that's fraud. Team Trump might be yelling that this is all a partisan witch hunt --Trump himself said that about the judge last night in all caps -- and therefore, that defending himself from all those crimes he did in his campaign in 2020 is a political expense for 2024. It's backed by his immediate announcement in 2022, so he could get away with this. My opinion might not hold up in court, but Trump's money isn't holding up in his bank account. Maybe Trump will bring in enough money to pay his lawyers, but it looks like his PAC won't get enough to, say, place ads.
If the RNC wants Trump to lose without the RNC taking that much damage, they are already doing the best action: withholding payment. And letting Trump's campaign get run like Trump's businesses.
- - - Would the real Slim Shady please stand up - - -
-- Donald TrumpNo, I didn’t tamper with the election! Those who rigged & stole the election were the ones doing the tampering, & they are the slime that should be prosecuted
Would someone please tell the Fulton County grand jury that I did not tamper with the election
I think he knows he's going to be arrested. I do like "someone tell the grand jury the defendant is innocent" I don't think that's how it works.
And, yes, the mysterious "they" who rigged and stole the election.
I know @Breccia is always looking for CNN points, but it should be noted that this has some wide ranging potentials to be big news coming up
because if she's going this far around, RICO case looks a lot more likely...
I'm more impressed by the fact that he didn't flat out blame the democrats.
I know he's under investigation on several fronts and don't want to add more ammunition to the prosecution, but I frankly didn't believe he had that kind of self control.
Maybe the gag order did work.
High. It was his third time at that point, and Ivanka got a massive PR win by "clearing him out". He likely had lawyers at that time who did not want to make that same mistake, and Melania was -- yes this hyperbole -- a teenageer who didn't speak English.
Unless you're asking about the fourth prenup, the version that just got re-negotiated. Still very high, but I admit it's more possible on the grounds that he might have copy-pasted things from years ago that were no longer true, such as "my loans are in good standing" or "my buildings are filled with people paying their rent on time".
Trump is a liar in public, but lying on the stand and/or lying on a contract is a whole different story.
- - - Updated - - -
He has, but not in that post.
Trump blames Democrats for legal fees that cost ‘vast amounts of money’
The Lunatic Left, working closely with Crooked Joe Biden and his corrupt DOJ, is not only focusing on Election Interference, but on getting the Trump Campaign to spend vast amounts of money on legal fees, thereby having less to spend on ads showing that Crooked Joe is the WORST PRESIDENT IN U.S. HISTORY!
You joke, and good on you, but this is actually a real issue for Trump. Trump has made a lot of money, and secured his status as a deplorable human being, true. But he's in a situation where that's no longer viable. A while ago, one Trump lawyer made a big deal by demanding the money up-front. I speak from limited personal experience, but in that limited personal experience, lawyers charge up front for two reasons:
1) The fee is standard for routine work, like filling out a will.
2) The lawyer knows they are going to lose.
Nothing about this is routine...sooooooo...
I think that one lawyer was just the first. I think his legal team knows about how often Trump lawyers get fired for not being able to do the impossible, how often Trump lawyers get sanctioned, and of course how often Trump lawyers fail because they're asked to do the impossible.
Trump, who is boo-hooing about spending other people's money like an asshole, is probably legit surprised by the amount his lawyers are charging him, because it hasn't come up before. I think the lawyers are trying to get as much money as they can, before their reputation is forever Dershowitz'd and they become the lawyer who let their traitor go to jail because he couldn't keep his tiny hands off Twitter.
Call it X-parte.
https://www.reuters.com/legal/us-sta...nt-2023-08-14/
We've had third indictment, but is it time for fourth indictment yet?The U.S. state of Georgia appears set to charge Donald Trump with a variety of charges, including racketeering, conspiracy and false statements, according to a two-page docket report posted to the Fulton County court's website.
The Fulton County clerk's office could not immediately be reached for comment on the docket report, which is no longer available on the court's website.
Representatives for the county could not be immediately reached for comment.
"For the present this country is headed in directions which can only carry ruin to it and will create a situation here dangerous to world peace. With few exceptions, the men who are running this Government are of a mentality that you and I cannot understand. Some of them are psychopathic cases and would ordinarily be receiving treatment somewhere. Others are exalted and in a frame of mind that knows no reason."
- U.S. Ambassador to Germany, George Messersmith, June 1933
Love this post and in my semi-broken political brain I never understood the Republicans fear of Trump's hold on their party ever. Now just going with what we call recent politics where the party is at say 2000 or maybe 2010ish the Republicans since we are two party have always been in the fight.
I remember they were scared as shit in 2008 when Obama came and drove young voters and people who didn't vote, etc. Yet that was fading and projection here, had a good chance in 2016 vs anyone against Hillary.
So now we get to the white supremacy, nationalism, fascism, whatever we want to call it. My analysis is if they just tried to capture more of the Latino vote and kept with tax cuts, regulations held on to the generally conservative suburban voter.
The working class voter, namely the white voter who along with everyone is always getting effed? Do these people just float in the void not voting for either party. Idk. Maybe the Republicans with still somehow the magic they do convince them that tax cuts for the rich will trickle down so go vote.
In short I'm with this article and Breccia. Would the Republicans really miss Trump?
"Buh dah DEMS"
"For the present this country is headed in directions which can only carry ruin to it and will create a situation here dangerous to world peace. With few exceptions, the men who are running this Government are of a mentality that you and I cannot understand. Some of them are psychopathic cases and would ordinarily be receiving treatment somewhere. Others are exalted and in a frame of mind that knows no reason."
- U.S. Ambassador to Germany, George Messersmith, June 1933
WAIT I thought of a better one.
X-post-facto.
The Republican Party will find themselves better off when the cult-like worship is gone, and they can focus on party over country instead of person over country. I've said in the past, the problem with W was that he thought he was in charge of the Republican Party, when the Republican Party thought they were in charge of him. Trump did that, but much better.
They'd miss his voters, but once Trump is out of their way forever, they'll be better for it. Until then, they need to learn what the Marshmallow Game is.
I suspect that like the amount of Trump attendees at any given rally, the worry over gop voter attendance is overblown.