Mega-Thread: Trump Focused Discussion

[Egomaniac]

There's no support to withdraw on any of the candidates. He has to win the primary first.

Well, that just puts him back where he was in 2016 before he got the nom.

He also has to stay out of jail.

Sure, but none of his criminal trials have even started yet...so I'll just repeat my previous cautions about celebrating before the win.

[Flarelaine]

It's wise to keep the possibility of a Trump win.
But this isn't 2016. He isn't unknown. Hes a known felon now. And unlike then, he currently doesn't have the support of the RNC. If that changes then Trump's chances improve.

Being a felon is what turns his voters on. And the RNC will fall in line.

[Cthulhu 2020]

But he still got ~10 million more votes in 2020 than he did in 2016.

Maybe you'll answer the question that nobody else will.

Would you be as happy to be proven wrong as I would be?

Of course I'd be happy for Trump to not win. But here's possibly a lukewarm take: Donald Trump losing and going to jail isn't some panacea for our country's problems. The Trump conservatives aren't just going to look at their felonious leader and go "Man, we need to do some serious reflection about our beliefs."

The American right is DEEPLY ill, and holding Donald Trump accountable is the bare minimum, it's the starting point. It's a simple beginning. And honestly, part of me wants him to win so that we can get the bloody revolution over with after he makes a mockery of our democracy. It would be a relatively quick was to get rid of the cancer that is the alt right who festers in the corners of the internet and spreads racist, bigoted, and sexist malarky. This is the 1920's all over again, and a 1939 happening in a decade, while tragic would at least see the world unite against a fascist America and beat the fascists into a pulp once more, pushing them back underground for another 100 years until history once again repeats itself in 2123.

But personally, I prefer the non violent way. What is that you ask? IDK, most of these people are deeply white supremacist and there's seemingly no cure. But charging and shaming every single one of their leaders for crimes committed is a start.

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Also like, anyone who's been at all paying at least a little attention to conservative media knows that the tide is starting to turn, and many big Republican icons are turning on Trump. His staunch allies (people he committed crimes with) are still on his side, but Republicans are finally starting to realize just how toxic he is for their brand with the unhinged shit he's saying lately.

If Republicans turning on Trump and Trump going on unhinged rants about executing people who betray him gets him elected, this country is over.

[Gorsameth]

Of course I'd be happy for Trump to not win. But here's possibly a lukewarm take: Donald Trump losing and going to jail isn't some panacea for our country's problems. The Trump conservatives aren't just going to look at their felonious leader and go "Man, we need to do some serious reflection about our beliefs."

The American right is DEEPLY ill, and holding Donald Trump accountable is the bare minimum, it's the starting point. It's a simple beginning. And honestly, part of me wants him to win so that we can get the bloody revolution over with after he makes a mockery of our democracy. It would be a relatively quick was to get rid of the cancer that is the alt right who festers in the corners of the internet and spreads racist, bigoted, and sexist malarky. This is the 1920's all over again, and a 1939 happening in a decade, while tragic would at least see the world unite against a fascist America and beat the fascists into a pulp once more, pushing them back underground for another 100 years until history once again repeats itself in 2123.

But personally, I prefer the non violent way. What is that you ask? IDK, most of these people are deeply white supremacist and there's seemingly no cure. But charging and shaming every single one of their leaders for crimes committed is a start.

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Also like, anyone who's been at all paying at least a little attention to conservative media knows that the tide is starting to turn, and many big Republican icons are turning on Trump. His staunch allies (people he committed crimes with) are still on his side, but Republicans are finally starting to realize just how toxic he is for their brand with the unhinged shit he's saying lately.

If Republicans turning on Trump and Trump going on unhinged rants about executing people who betray him gets him elected, this country is over.

Are they openly and publicly talking about how Trump tried to end Democracy in the US and overthrow the government? Are they openly and accurately reporting on the many lawsuits for election interference?

Or are they still pussyfooting around trying to gently steer their base away from Trump without pissing them off by confronting them with the reality that they have become a party of fascists?

I say to little to late.
The GOP is still not remotely ready to deal with reality and change their ways.

[Ivanstone]

It's anecdotal but I'm seeing this trend here in my neck of the woods in Alabama. GOP folks I know are either in 2 camps. One camp is currently in the "I don't support him but I do support his policies" phase of regret, the other camp is utterly disgusted with what's happened since January 6th. Like actual shame and feelings of betrayal. Does that mean they'll vote for Biden? LOL fuck no that's a bridge too far for them. Most told me they'll just stay at home, or vote 3rd party(even though I tell them voting 3rd party basically elects Trump). Either way, that's lost voters because the name is now too toxic.

Regarding Team Digust:
They voted for Trump knowing he's a fuck up.
They voted for Trump knowing he's a sex offender and a racist.
They voted for Romney even though he's a clueless plutocrat and a "fake" Christian.
They voted for McCain even though his party drove the economy off the cliff and started two wars.
They voted for Shrub because... Well I'll give them this one. He's still an idiot but the wars at that time looked semi-legitimate.
They voted for Shrub even though he's a dopey frat boy born with a silver spoon in his wealth.
They voted for... well I'm not sure about this one. They post-CRA re-alignment wasn't complete yet. Slick Willy is slick. Dole still manages to come off decently despite being a Helms Republican.

To top off your local specifics:
They vote for Alabama GOP even though the lot of them are fucking useless on top of having shitty policies.

Trump can still win. The usual idiots will hold their noise and press "R". Something dumb happening two weeks before election day can still give it to him.

[The Stormbringer]

Plus he's already a convicted rapist. Not that conservatives care about any of this, but I have to reitarate - we don't care how riled up the base is. It's the centrists/moderates that matter.

This is, unfortunately, false. He was not "convicted", because you can only be convicted of a crime, and he lost a civil case. He never went to court over criminal rape charges. Saying he's a convicted rapist is unfortunately inaccurate language, and righties who actually know a little about law will throw that in your face repeatedly if you try to use it. EDIT: (And they'll say it invalidates all the rest of your argument too, because they're petty and pedantic like that)

[gondrin]

I'll remind you again that over 10 million more people voted for him AFTER they saw "this idiot in office". That's what history actually shows.

Yes, 10 million more people voted for him. Even more voted for Biden. It was a record year for turnout which will more than likely happen again if Trump, or any of the crazy brigade is picked, is nominated for the Republican candidate. One will be because abortion will be a massive push against the GOP. We have seen it for the past couple of years that it literally was a Looney Tunes Acme bomb blowing up in their face and will continue to do so until abortion is legal across all 50 states again.

Again, I will go back to people using terms like "Slim chance" and "unelectable". Your argument has been more reasoned....you have stated that it will be "closer than we would like".

He does have a slim chance of winning like he had a slim chance of winning in 2020. Hell, it should have been a massive landslide in 2020 FOR Trump because Presidents normally win majorly due to catastrophes that happen on their watch. Trump is one of the few that fumbled that mess. His slim chance doesn't mean that he cannot win, just that it will be a lot harder for him to win than in 2016 and especially 2020 as everything that is happening to him will be blasted constantly UNTIL election day.

Again, those numbers are just to show that Trump gained votes after being in office for 4 years... countering the repeated suggestion that he LOST support in 2020. Yes, you can also make a similar argument for Biden doing better than Hillary.

He literally lost the support of a lot of middle class suburban women with the fact he nominated SC Justices that overturned Roe V Wade. They were a sizable voting base for him in 2016 and 2020. Will Trump get a lot of vote? Probably. But after Jan 6, RVW being overturned and other facets, his support will be the same as it usually is, the far right base and others that only vote party. The rest that normally would for Trump will now literally not vote for a president. That means no vote for either Dem or Rep.

A track record that gained him 10 million more votes.

This was before Jan 6th AND Roe V Wade being overturned.

I haven't seen any evidence that it has driven his voters off. You're using an emotional tact here.

I have. I see in my state of Ohio. I have a neighbor that is a literal die hard republican that refuses to vote for Trump now because of the stuff that happened over the past couple of years. Same with a large amount of others that I know. I only know of one person that would vote for Trump even after all of that while another 100 other previous Trump voters will not vote for him. That doesn't mean they will vote for a Dem as they won't, they just will not vote for any candidate if Trump is the one picked by the GOP. And this is in a county that voted over 60% for him.

Have you looked at Biden's numbers recently? He's not as popular as he was in 2020.

I have said it before that Biden has always been a weak candidate. Hell, any Dem candidate is a stronger candidate than Biden.

January 6 was bad. That's an objective fact. And yet you still have Republicans in Congress defending both Trump and the people that attacked the Capitol. You've got right-wing news networks and mouth-pieces calling these traitors "patriots".

First off, go find out how many actually support Jan 6th in Congress. Nearly all Republican senators absolutely detest him for that(they won't outright say it but they absolutely do). The far right in the House? They have ALWAYS been anti-government fascists. However, they are a minority in their own party. And right-wing news sources? Yes, they have always touted the same thing as the far right in the house except with a corporate twist. Those same news networks would always push anything that gets rid of government.

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Ok, so Trump aims to gain UAW support by telling their workers and union members that "I don't care what you get.". I mean, who wouldn't support someone that doesn't care if you got a raise or health benefits or any other thing that a union fights for.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/polit...c7fd58449&ei=7

Trump Tells Autoworkers ‘I Don’t Care What You Get’ in Bizarre Non-Union Rally

Rather than debate the Republican candidates polling in the single digits on Wednesday night, Donald Trump held a rally at the Drake Enterprises truck-parts manufacturing plant outside Detroit. According to the former president, he was there to support United Auto Workers members striking for increased wages and benefits — even though he spoke at the management’s request at a non-union shop. Over an hour or so, Trump talked trash about Joe Biden and the UAW’s leadership, while making very few mentions of the purported competition in the GOP primary. Below are some of the most striking moments from his Wednesday night speech.

Trump says that none of the other Republican candidates will be his vice-presidential nominee.

Aside from his refusal to debate, Trump has already made it clear in his messaging that he has pivoted from primary mode to running in a general election. This was quite clear when he hardly mentioned the GOP field — except to say that they were all “running for a job” in his administration. “They’ll do anything,” he said. “Secretary of something. They even say VP, I don’t know. Has anybody seen any VP in the group? I don’t think so.”

Throughout the rally, Trump tried to frame himself as the pro-union candidate for killing the Trans-Pacific Partnership that had the potential to take auto-manufacturing jobs abroad. But the candidate who has railed against union protections for years wasn’t exactly supportive of the UAW’s demands to increase wages and improve benefits. Prior to his speech, he did not respond to a reporter’s questions about whether or not he backed the 40 percent raise the UAW is demanding.

At one point during a long diatribe against electric vehicles, he said that “I don’t care what you get in the next two weeks, or three weeks, or five weeks,” referring to the length of the strike. (According to Trump, it wouldn’t matter due to the Biden administration’s support of electric vehicles and the potential for the growing industry to undercut union jobs.) “I don’t think you’re picketing for the right thing,” he added.

After saying that he did not care about the union’s demands, Trump then lobbied its president, Shawn Fain, to endorse him in the 2024 election. He seemed frustrated that Democrats always win the UAW’s endorsement over the party that undercuts unions as a policy. “It’s almost like an automatic reflex,” he said.

Trump’s speech at the non-union plant is probably not going to help his chances here. “I find the pathetic irony that the former president is going to hold a rally for union members at a non-union business,” Fain said of Trump before the rally. “His track record speaks for itself. In 2008 during the Great Recession, he blamed UAW members. He blamed our contracts for everything that was wrong with these companies. That’s a complete lie.”

The former president talked a lot about how electric vehicles are often built abroad, even as the Biden administration implements policies to block the importation of EV chargers and batteries from China. In a more Trumpian tone, he talked about the “panic” that settles in after Americans buy an electric car and worry over their (substantial) driving range. Returning to one of his classic complaints, he also went off about wind turbines, claiming that they “don’t work.” (Spoiler: They work.) He also claimed that electric motors on boats can’t work because they would electrocute boaters, which would be news to the outboard motor industry.

Trump claimed that Joe Biden had only visited the UAW picket line in Michigan the day before because Trump was speaking in Michigan. Biden, who sounded fairly energetic at the strike, “didn’t know where he was,” according to Trump. “I don’t think he actually knows what he’s doing,” Trump said, of Biden’s demeanor in general. “He doesn’t know,” Trump said. “Let’s not blame him.”

Later, Trump accused Biden of corruption, claiming that if his home was raided it “would have made Menendez look like a baby.” Trump said that he wasn’t sure if Biden is “going to make it to the starting gate” of the 2024 election.” In an unusual line of attack, he said that “crooked Joe Biden is back like a wretched old culture trying to finish off his prey.”

The former president did not get into specifics about the many indictments he is facing for his alleged acts of conspiring to overturn the election, violating the Espionage Act, and falsifying business records. But he did acknowledge that they were weighing on him. “I could’ve had the nicest, softest life,” Trump said. “Instead, I have to beat these lunatics up all day long. Everyday. Lunatics! I have never heard of the word indictment, now I get indicted every 3 days.”

The former president cited his record in office keeping prices down as a way to prove he was the right candidate for working class voters in 2024. At one point, he boasted that the last time gas prices were under $2 was under his watch. Unfortunately, he forgot that this occurred in April 2020 — when the economy tanked in the second month of the pandemic and over 20 million Americans lost their jobs.

In his nod to the culture war front against transgender rights, Trump went on about “child mutilization.” Most likely, he was referring to rare gender-reassignment surgeries for teenagers. Almost certainly, he meant “mutilation.”

[Breccia]

Ok, so Trump aims to gain UAW support by telling their workers and union members that "I don't care what you get."

I mean, he said this at a non-union shop, with what seem to be paid attendees I cited earlier. The UAW boss specifically and directly called out his record in public on purpose. He did all this as a flabby excuse to get out of the debates, and the whole thing was a disaster. I think it's pretty clear he's down to third-string PR at best.

[Ivanstone]

I guess we'll just have to wait and find out to see if they've come to their senses and finally decided that attempting to overthrow an election or have 91 felony indictments is finally the bridge too far. The trend I've personally seen is that's the case. Remains to be seen on whether it's enough to finally convince the GOP that their politics are too toxic for their moderate and politically illiterate/disengaged voters(the ones you're referring to above).

I'll genuinely be shocked if he gets less than 46% of the popular vote.

If you're talking about Alabama and presidents before Bush Jr, it's all Republicans. Clinton made it close(they love the southern candidate in the south), but Dole and Bush Sr won. Voted Reagan, of course. Voted Jimmy Carter. Voted Nixon. Then we get into the 60s which is the CRA-realignment you referred to.

I was referring to Alabama GOP in general. Roy Moore got 48% of the vote despite being a creep and an incompetent judge.

As for the CRA realignment, I don't think it was complete during the 90s. People didn't entirely vote for Reagan and Bush because of the Southern Strategy. The Dems put up weak candidates twice and it shows.

I never said he couldn't. I have better faith he won't in 2024 as compared to 2020. Obviously can't predict the future, it's way too early for me to say "he's gonna lose and there's nothing that could happen that would change my opinion".

I think there's too much uncertainty to make any form of reliable forecasting. I won't believe the GOP are done with Trump unless there's a notable loss in voter share.

[Redwyrm]

The one silver lining to Trump's rain clouds is that major Republican donors are not donating this cycle. And the money the RNC does have in reserve is being sucked up by Trump. Meaning less for congressional races. Don't care who the candidate is, without campaign funds you cannot win an election.

[Draco-Onis]

There's no support to withdraw on any of the candidates. He has to win the primary first. He also has to stay out of jail.

Technically speaking he doesn't even have to stay out of jail, there's precedence for it he can run and be president from jail nothing in the constitution says he can't.

[Breccia]

Technically speaking he doesn't even have to stay out of jail

Correct, but despite the "he can still win" and even the cultists' "Trump is our Nelson Mandingo" if he actually tries to run while convicted or imprisoned, he will lose valuable market share. I stand behind that some of the cultists will be demoralized and not vote, but he'll lose centrists, moderates, and independents. Say what you want about people like Perry, McCain (either), the Bush family and the Olde Schoole so far, I don't see them voting for a convicted felon in record-breaking numbers. I do see some of them saying "See, I told you!" to every camera within 100 miles, however.

Trump is already facing significant obstacles, he lost FOX News and @Redwyrm is right about the money being used for purposes other than a campaign. The rally in Michigan was pathetic. I see there's been significant discussion over the last four pages about his odds of winning etc. but I think everyone agrees the best way to make sure a campfire it out is to stomp on the embers and pour buckets of cold water on it. Drown it, so not even a single spark has any chance of igniting.

[Breccia]

A judge found Trump committed fraud in building his real-estate empire. Here’s what happens next

So much of this AP summary article is stuff we've already discussed. If you're behind, that's a good article to catch up. There is a section about "can the appointed people sell off Trump properties to pay Trump loans?" and apparently the judge has yet to decide, but in theory, yes they can.

But I'll quote the titular section:

The judge will also weigh a possible $250 million in penalties and some remaining claims in a non-jury trial slated to start Oct. 2

Still, the ruling on one count during what’s known as the summary judgment phase could prove the most significant outcome of the case, said Will Thomas, an assistant professor of business law at the University of Michigan.

“This first count, even though it is easier in some respects from the other counts, it lets one of the biggest remedies kick in: ‘We’re going to stop you from doing business,’” Thomas said. “This is one of the worst outcomes you can get.”

Barring a successful appeal, Thomas said he doesn’t see how the Trump Organization can avoid losing control of his LLCs containing entities such as 40 Wall Street, Trump Tower and an estate outside New York City called Seven Springs. One strategy, establishing new LLCs in another state, is nearly impossible with legal claims such as a lien by a creditor or, in this case, a judge’s ruling.

“If someone is coming after your house, you can’t sell it to me for $1 and have me sell it back to you after your creditor goes away,” Thomas said. “You’re going to run into what’s called fraudulent transfer.”

In fact, Trump was accused by the attorney general of already trying to do that when he set up a Delaware company last year. A Trump lawyer denied any improper intention with the move, but Engoron was worried enough to appoint an independent monitor, Barbara Jones, to watch over Trump’s company, a role she retains under Tuesday’s ruling.

Yeah, we talked about Trump Org 2: Judgement Day before. It was mocked as a transparent dodge at the time and remains so.

Trump has been screaming into the wind how this is government seizing private property...huh, he didn't have that problem when pretending to built The Wall...without dealing with the whole "I am so objectively guilty, the judge I specifically asked to rule without a jury mocked me in that ruling" issue. Putting a convicted criminal behind bars is not kidnapping, even if they don't want to be put in a room for this. Fining someone who ran a stop sign is not theft, even if they don't want to pay. And forcing a fraudster to honor his contractual obligations is not the government seizing private property, any more than bankruptcy is, and Trump should know that, he's willfully declared bankruptcy six times.

[Egomaniac]

Shit, meant to address this but it got lost in the discussion. I guess now's a better time than never to address it.

Why are they just looking at those 3 states? Why not Pennslyvania?

They're looking at those three states because that's all Trump would have needed to tie biden in EV... and the difference in votes that decided that was 44K. It's an indication of how close the election was. The 7 million vote difference in the Popular vote is completely meaningless....that 44k is what really made the difference.

For most states it doesn't matter how many you votes you win them by... they reward their EV in an "All or nothing" fashion. It doesn't matter how many more votes Biden got in 2020 than Hillary did in 2016 or how badly Trump was beaten there in 2020...Pennsylvania is still worth the same amount of EV.

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So the impeachment hearings have begun, I guess.

They are not going well.



Jonathan Turley, I'm sure a name familiar to a great many of you, was one of the first witnesses called by House Republicans in the majority who are pursuing this inquiry.

Their own witnesses are arguing that they're wasting time and don't have a case. How embarrassing.

Shouldn't this technically be in the Biden-Harris thread?

[Edge-]

Shouldn't this technically be in the Biden-Harris thread?

Technically the McCarthy/Schumer thread. I'll delete and move over there, thanks for pointing out.

[Egomaniac]

No, it's in indication of how close the election was in those 3 states.

Those are the only 3 states he gives honorable mention. He only needed to win 1 of them. Other battleground states, as I pointed out, weren't that close.

No, it's an indication of how close the election was...because if he had won those 3 states...he ties Biden in EV.

Yes, it only matters if he had won all 3...but the difference between him winning and losing those states, all comibined, was only 44K votes. I don't have an exact breakdown of exactly how close each of those states was... but that 44K gets divided up between them somehow.

I disagree that it's completely meaningless. It shows us how many are willing to vote for their preferred candidate. It shows the national popularity of each candidate, even if the vote tallies are split amongst states.

It's meaningless in the sense of who wins the election. In practical terms those 44K votes have much more meaning. If those 44K votes had gone the other way...Biden would still have won the PV by 7 million...but he wouldn't be president.

[Ivanstone]

I'm probably in the same boat on that. Even if I think Trump loses if you asked me today, I'm not naive enough to cement my opinion this early.

The problem with the 46% number is that’s enough to win the Electoral college.

Yeah Alabama is a bad example for showing "progress" in the GOP. I was more referring to the suburban white women(mostly) that are in my friends/family circle that are in full pearl-clutching mode about Trump after 2020. The same people that had a case of the vapors when Biden told Trump to shut up during one of their debates. "He's so mean! That wasn't very respectful!"

The pearl clutchers are being performative in public life. With the anonymity of polling or voting, a different story likely emerges. Kay Ivey has roughly similar numbers to Trump within Alabama. They’re not changing their vote much (or not showing up).

My sense is probably more in the 2000s than the 90s. You're probably not far off. I wasn't really politically active in the 90s because I was a teenager/young adult, and like many young adults, I wasn't too interested in something as serious as politics. I'd rather figure out which bar me and my friends are gonna go to.

Bush-Gore was the first real modern election that cemented where America is at now. The GOP won’t win the popular vote, might win the electoral college with some shenanigans greasing the wheels.

Agreed. If you asked me to cement my view of how it'll turn out, today, I'll refuse. I also require proof like you do that the GOP is done with him. But we can't *truly* know until we have another election where he's on the ballot. It's just conjecture right now, and should be taken with a massive grain of salt. Basically about as useful as arguing about who's gonna win the Super Bowl this year, when they're only 3 games in.

I’d have to see something interesting to change my opinion. McCarthy flipping the bird to the Treason Caucus for example.

[Egomaniac]

No, it's an indication of how close the election was in those 3 states. Because there's no other states that are that close. States that Biden required in order to win the EV.

Again, not the issue. It doesn't matter how close the other states were. Those 3 states would have been enough to change the results.

And the difference between him winning and losing PA & MI, which he absolutely must have had to win, is about 200,000 votes. I saw the breakdowns, I'm not disputing you or the NPR author's numbers in those 3 states. I'm disputing why we can only look at those 3 to determine how close the election was.

I'm not disputing that Biden won big in those states. You're still thinking in terms of popular vote. I'm talking about Electoral Votes.

I am saying that if those 3 states went the other way...it changes the results of the election.

No, it would be a 269-269 tie.

Yes, You're right. I mispoke there. It becomes a tie. 44K votes are what separated a win from a tie.

off topic...538 is a stupid number. It should be an odd number...it all but eliminates even the chance for a tie.

Why are you unwilling to admit that PA and MI were clear shifts and big wins for Biden?

I'm not unwilling to admit that. It's just not relevant here. "Winning Big" in a state doesn't translate into more EV than "Winning Small" does (at least not in most states). As my good and dear friend Vin Diesel once said:

[Ivanstone]

Hopefully you're not insinuating that I disagree with you on these points. I'm just trying to state that I feel a bit better about Trump's odds of losing compared to 2020. Sorry for asking, just trying to figure out if you're disagreeing with me and need a reply, or just opining reasons as to why you're not ready to close the door on Trump. Admittedly, it's hard for me to disagree with your concerns, because I have them. I'm just at a different perspective as we speak today. I'm sure my pearl clutchers I've referenced will have some kind of surprise for me in 2024 regarding how they voted. I've tried to make it clear to my friends/family that if they vote for Trump after 2020, they should either never ever tell me they voted for him, or go the fuck away, because my personal patience as it applies to politics is at an end regarding Trump.

I really can’t tell if things have improved.

Some donors are publicly skittish but there’s a lot of dark money in politics.
Trump is still getting lots of free exposure and his supporters have a lot of unjustified paranoia. These feed off each other.
The Dems have to perform well, get lots of donations and hope they don’t get shanked by the electoral process. Or the real world. I’m reasonably certain that the Saudi’s cut oil production in part to hurt Biden for example.

The only real positive is the false narratives around elections might cause some GOP voters to become couch potatoes.

[Egomaniac]

And I keep telling you that it does matter how close other states were, if your argument is that these 3 states were the only defining states that Biden had to win. Your argument doesn't want to care that all 3 were flipped by Biden. Hillary lost Georgia by 200,000 votes in 2016. Lost Arizona by 80k. Lost Wisconsin by 23k(WTF, Wisconsin?). It doesn't want to care that PA and MI were absolutely pivotal to Biden winning.

You really aren't actually listening to what I am saying.

The 44K vote difference is your argument. It's a small number, and helps you make your case for your argument, if you look at the entire election through only the eyes of those 3 states.

it being a small number shows how easily the election could have gone differently.

No I'm not. I gave you numbers specific to each state. PA/MI are 36 EVs. GA/WI/AZ are 37 EVs. PA/MI has 36/37ths the weight of GA/WI/AZ.

And if it had been any of those states that were that close...those would be the ones I'd be talking about.

While simultaneously ignoring that if PA/MI went the other way it would also change the results of the election. They don't have the small vote differentials that make your argument have that bit of luster, but they still mattered.

I'm not ignoring that. What I am saying is that PA/MI weren't that close. If they were, like I said, those would be the ones I'd be talking about.

Flipping all 5 states that are in this discussion are relevant. Those states are what gave Biden a victory. He flipped them all. Because he didn't flip GA/WI/AZ as convincingly as PA/MI doesn't discount their importance.

I'm talking about how close they were to not being flipped. If those three states had not gone to Biden...it wouldn't matter how big he won in PA/MI or anywhere else. And the difference between those states going red or going blue was only 44k votes. THAT is my point. Those 44K votes could have changed the entire result of the election. The 44K more votes Biden got in those states matter so much more than the 7 million more votes he got across the entire country.

To the bolded, they need to treat the 2024 election the same way they treated the 2020 election, if Trump becomes the GOP nominee. *NOT* the way they treated the 2016 election. I'm confident they've figured that much out. I was sufficiently prepared to say "fuck no" to Trump in 2016, they should have prepared their voters for the same thing.

That is what ive been saying the entire time.

I am NOT confident they've figured that out.

Saying things like "we've got this in the bag" is the exact opposite of treating it like 2020.