Mega-Thread: Trump Focused Discussion

[Poopymonster]

While I don't wish death on anyone, Trump keeling over because he got Covid from his lawyer would be hilarious.
...
Would that make Habba win, because she managed to keep Trump out of jail and got rid of his fine?

Would a thank you card be too much? How long after his passing would it be socially acceptable to send it? 5 or 10 minutes after he'd been pronounced dead?
I'm never sure of the etiquette on these things.

[Elder Millennial]

An interesting phenomenon seems to be emerging in some of the international media that I'm following.

At least in Spain, Germany and the UK a 2nd Trump term is increasingly being discussed not just as possible, but rather as probable.

The Democrats really need to pull their shit together and start campaigning yesterday.

[Shadowferal]

At least in Spain, Germany and the UK a 2nd Trump term is increasingly being discussed not just as possible, but rather as probable.

As someone that predicted a likely Trump win in 2016 because of complacency and underestimating him since he was an unknown and underestimating the distaste Hillary had with the electorate, there's a reversal now imo.
Trump is seen with the same disdain as Hillary. He needs to win over Nikki Haley voters and independent voters...too many of which are "never Trumpers." Many are also pro-choice, single issue voters that can't be ruled out since the GOP has had to endure an almost complete rout when that issue comes up.

Don't let polls fool you. They've been completely, embarassingly wrong before.

[minteK917]

Honeslty Haley as shot at beating Biden.more then Trump does. No its not because of the Israel stuff or any other internet meme. Its because for some reason despite the USA economy doing better then the last decade, all the polling shows the average american thinks they live in the worse econimic time since 2008. Thats a problem for Biden since people always blame the incumbent for this feeling, even if its literally just that a feeling.

Trump running in the general election, the election is about how to not Trump in Office again. Haley running it becomes about how Biden economy sucks

[Redwyrm]

As someone that predicted a likely Trump win in 2016 because of complacency and underestimating him since he was an unknown and underestimating the distaste Hillary had with the electorate, there's a reversal now imo.
Trump is seen with the same disdain as Hillary. He needs to win over Nikki Haley voters and independent voters...too many of which are "never Trumpers." Many are also pro-choice, single issue voters that can't be ruled out since the GOP has had to endure an almost complete rout when that issue comes up.

Don't let polls fool you. They've been completely, embarassingly wrong before.

With all that being said and probably correct, it still shouldn't be this GD close. I realize part of that is the media's fault in wanting to create a exciting horse race. But the fact that Trump is on route to getting the Republican nomination is just sad.

[Benggaul]

Honeslty Haley as shot at beating Biden.more then Trump does. No its not because of the Israel stuff or any other internet meme. Its because for some reason despite the USA economy doing better then the last decade, all the polling shows the average american thinks they live in the worse econimic time since 2008. Thats a problem for Biden since people always blame the incumbent for this feeling, even if its literally just that a feeling.

Trump running in the general election, the election is about how to not Trump in Office again. Haley running it becomes about how Biden economy sucks

The reason why is pretty simple: Capitalism. "Greedflation" is the term for it. While the economy has been doing well and the US avoided the recession that all of the experts were predicting in the wake of Trump's fuckups (he still doesn't know what the fuck tariffs are or do), businesses--while quick to increase prices at the start of inflation--are not bringing prices down as the inflation eases and the economy chugs along. They aren't passing the savings back onto the consumer, just holding onto them themselves and there's no checks or regulations in place to keep them from doing so.

So, while costs are dropping pretty much across the board, your average American isn't seeing those cuts and their life savings continue to dwindle because even pretty basic groceries are still nearly double what they used to cost a year or two ago in some areas. Couple that with general ignorance and it's easy to see why they keep misplacing the blame.

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With all that being said and probably correct, it still shouldn't be this GD close. I realize part of that is the media's fault in wanting to create a exciting horse race. But the fact that Trump is on route to getting the Republican nomination is just sad.

The thing is, it's not really all that close. But with the outdated EC still in place it doesn't really matter how many million more votes Biden gets.

[Redwyrm]

The thing is, it's not really all that close. But with the outdated EC still in place it doesn't really matter how many million more votes Biden gets.

I agree that it may not be probable. But the fact that it is even remotely possible is concerning.

[Gorsameth]

I agree that it may not be probable. But the fact that it is even remotely possible is concerning.

Well what can you do when ~40% of America are racist fascists.

[Endus]

The reason why is pretty simple: Capitalism. "Greedflation" is the term for it. While the economy has been doing well and the US avoided the recession that all of the experts were predicting in the wake of Trump's fuckups (he still doesn't know what the fuck tariffs are or do), businesses--while quick to increase prices at the start of inflation--are not bringing prices down as the inflation eases and the economy chugs along. They aren't passing the savings back onto the consumer, just holding onto them themselves and there's no checks or regulations in place to keep them from doing so.

So, while costs are dropping pretty much across the board, your average American isn't seeing those cuts and their life savings continue to dwindle because even pretty basic groceries are still nearly double what they used to cost a year or two ago in some areas. Couple that with general ignorance and it's easy to see why they keep misplacing the blame.

The central issue is how we talk about "the economy" in general. It's nearly always in terms of GDP and stock market growth, and those markers have absolutely fuck-all to do with anyone but megacorporation owners and CEOs. Maybe there's a small correlation to anyone lucky enough to have an investment portfolio in the stock market, but their gains are basically irrelevant on this scale.

Meanwhile, issues like cost-of-living and consumer price indices exist, but are mostly overlooked in terms of discussing the economy's health. They get noted as frowny-face "aww, so sad" moments, with a giant shrug on dealing with it.

This all boils down to class warfare, and it's pretty clear the capitalists are waging that war actively, and have decades of history of winning. Who's an economy supposed to work for? I would argue it's supposed to work for everyone; the worker class of that society. In this framing, the workers are the host body, and the capitalists are parasites who feed off that host. I allow that you could frame it was the economy working for the wealthy, those in charge, the capitalists, in which case we'd frame them as predators, feeding off the prey population of the workers.

Now, in either case, discussions of "economic health" of a nation focuses pretty exclusively on the health of the parasites/predators. The host/prey population is just feedstock and their interests aren't to be considered seriously. Why are vampires in fiction always rich if not aristocratic? This is why. I am by no means unique in this understanding.

But this isn't a tenable prospect long-term. If the host/prey population suffers, so do the parasites/host. If leeches drain too much blood, the host dies, and in this case, there is no other host to switch to. Parasites and predators don't care; they're just hungry. And there's food. So they gorge themselves. And they'll keep doing so until they kill all of us, even if it means their own deaths.

We need to stop giving a single solitary fuck about corporate profits or stock market values, as a global society. They are not good markers of economic health. What matters is living conditions for workers overall, consumer price and cost-of-living indices and the like. Home ownership rates, that short of thing. When those start to suffer, that is when things need to be solved. Even if you don't want to throw off the parasitic relationship of capitalist economics, you can't focus on the interests of the parasites more than the interests of the host.

[Breccia]

At least in Spain, Germany and the UK a 2nd Trump term is increasingly being discussed not just as possible, but rather as probable.

This is a valid read, if the election was magically held tomorrow. Trump is currently the only one campaigning. Even I can win a PvP match against someone who isn't fighting back.

Yes, Trump running is scary, even horrifying. And everyone who isn't Trump needs to remember what happens if Trump wins, and act accordingly. Just remember, it's January, not November. No matter what happens between now and then, Biden will not be found liable or guilty of anything. For Trump, this is a valid risk.

Also, if other countries are that worried, they should probably do something about it. I'd like to see, for example, Spain or France just flat-out say "Trump is a danger to world politics and we will not work with him", openly. Yeah yeah I know, other countries aren't supposed to interfere with an election, but that doesn't mean they have to put their hands in their pockets and say "well gawrsh, there's nothing we can do". This is self-defense.

[Redwyrm]

Yes, Trump running is scary, even horrifying. And everyone who isn't Trump needs to remember what happens if Trump wins, and act accordingly. Just remember, it's January, not November. No matter what happens between now and then, Biden will not be found liable or guilty of anything. For Trump, this is a valid risk.

The only thing that has me concerned is Biden's health. So far he has been in great health and nothing to worry about. But a year is a long time for someone his age. Any health scare or incapacitation throws this whole thing up in the air. And I hate to be an alarmist and I hope Biden stays strong and healthy throughout the remainder of this term and into the future. But the possibility is still out there.

[Breccia]

The only thing that has me concerned is Biden's health. So far he has been in great health and nothing to worry about. But a year is a long time for someone his age.

It would be a tragic act of reverse karma if fatass COVID-denying whoremongerer Trump's health somehow outpaced Biden's.

[Drutt]

The only thing that has me concerned is Biden's health. So far he has been in great health and nothing to worry about. But a year is a long time for someone his age. Any health scare or incapacitation throws this whole thing up in the air. And I hate to be an alarmist and I hope Biden stays strong and healthy throughout the remainder of this term and into the future. But the possibility is still out there.

I agree in a vacuum, but given that his opponent is basically the same age (plus morbidly obese and with a well-documented unhealthy diet) I don't really see it as a factor in a two-horse race.

You'd have to be supremely stupid or fundamentally dishonest to argue that Biden is too old and therefore you're voting for Trump. At their ages, the difference is a rounding error.

[zorkuus]

You'd have to be supremely stupid or fundamentally dishonest to argue that Biden is too old and therefore you're voting for Trump.

i doubt anyone here is arguing that. But rather they'd want someone else than Biden to run as the democrat nominee. It is a huge risk to run him.

[Breccia]

You'd have to be supremely stupid or fundamentally dishonest to argue that Biden is too old and therefore you're voting for Trump. At their ages, the difference is a rounding error.

And yet, we both know this is a statement the second-largest political party has been making. Because they intentionally recruit stupid and dishonest members.

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As Ettan mentioned, Joe Biden did not appear on the New Hampshire primary ballot due to party reasons I won't even pretend to understand. Marianne Wilson and Dean Phillips, seeing blood in the water, pounced.

Anyway, Joe Biden did no campaigning, ran no ads, spent literally no effort on New Hampshire and wasn't even an option on the printed ballots so his only votes were write-ins.

He still got 67% of the vote.
https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/23/polit...ary/index.html

SUCH AN HONOR: I JUST BROKE THE ALL-TIME RECORD FOR VOTES CAST - BOTH SIDES, DEMOCRAT AND REPUBLICAN - IN THE HISTORY OF THE NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY!

Yep, Trump is bragging about beating someone who didn't run.

[Redwyrm]

i doubt anyone here is arguing that. But rather they'd want someone else than Biden to run as the democrat nominee. It is a huge risk to run him.

Now, I didn't say that. I think Biden, while not the best progressive democratic president we could have, did his best to pick up after the dumpster fire that Trump left the country in. And I hope he is re-elected for the sanity of the U.S. and the rest of the world.

I was just saying that even if the percentage chance of Biden getting sick between now and November is low, there is still that unknown that gives Trump more room than he should have. The only other person that I would consider taking the reins would probably be Newsom. But I am in no way trying to deny Biden the opportunity for a second term based on his age.

[Gorsameth]

i doubt anyone here is arguing that. But rather they'd want someone else than Biden to run as the democrat nominee. It is a huge risk to run him.

I think the historical win rate of Incumbents alone is why Biden should run again rather then any other Dem.

[cubby]

And yet, we both know this is a statement the second-largest political party has been making. Because they intentionally recruit stupid and dishonest members.

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Yep, Trump is bragging about beating someone who didn't run.

And this is what we're going to start seeing as the Primaries come in and Trump wins. Trump bragging about things that either didn't happen or don't actually matter.
HOWEVER
The key issue to watch for in the coming months, imo at least, is the difference in GOP turnout compared to the 2020 primaries. It is true that the New Hampshire GOP Primary turnout was the highest ever, but we'll see what happens as the year goes on. The biggest concern is that Trump being on the ballot will cause a marked decrease in GOP voter turnout.
Biden has the same issue re DNC turnout, but not as much.

And, a Trump-Haley ticket could be galvanizing for the GOP in November. The GOP hasn't ever had an intelligent woman on the executive ticket.

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I think the historical win rate of Incumbents alone is why Biden should run again rather then any other Dem.

I'm comfortable with whomever will keep Trump out of the White House - that man is truly frightening in his laissez-faire profiteering of that office.

What we need in 2028 is a slew of sub-50 year olds on the ballot.

[Redwyrm]

And, a Trump-Haley ticket could be galvanizing for the GOP in November. The GOP hasn't ever had an intelligent woman on the executive ticket.

Trump will NEVER put Haley on as VP. One, she is bruising his ego by staying in the primary race. Two, like you said, she's intelligent (relatively). Trump wants yes-men around him. I could see him picking someone like Bill O'reilly, Tucker, or Hannity.

[Breccia]

And, a Trump-Haley ticket could be galvanizing for the GOP in November. The GOP hasn't ever had an intelligent woman on the executive ticket.

They still won't, I agree with @Redwyrm on this. He's far more likely to pick Stefanik.

Also:

Whenever any person shall engage in repeated fraudulent or illegal
acts or otherwise demonstrate persistent fraud or illegality in the
carrying on, conducting or transaction of business, the attorney general
may apply, in the name of the people of the state of New York, to the
supreme court of the state of New York, on notice of five days, for an
order enjoining the continuance of such business activity or of any
fraudulent or illegal acts, directing restitution and damages and, in an
appropriate case, cancelling any certificate filed under and by virtue
of the provisions of section four hundred forty of the former penal law
or section one hundred thirty of the general business law, and the court
may award the relief applied for or so much thereof as it may deem
proper. The word "fraud" or "fraudulent" as used herein shall include
any device, scheme or artifice to defraud and any deception,
misrepresentation, concealment, suppression, false pretense, false
promise or unconscionable contractual provisions. The term "persistent
fraud" or "illegality" as used herein shall include continuance or
carrying on of any fraudulent or illegal act or conduct. The term
"repeated" as used herein shall include repetition of any separate and
distinct fraudulent or illegal act, or conduct which affects more than
one person. Notwithstanding any law to the contrary, all monies
recovered or obtained under this subdivision by a state agency or state
official or employee acting in their official capacity shall be subject
to subdivision eleven of section four of the state finance law.

In connection with any such application, the attorney general is
authorized to take proof and make a determination of the relevant facts
and to issue subpoenas in accordance with the civil practice law and
rules. Such authorization shall not abate or terminate by reason of any
action or proceeding brought by the attorney general under this section.

This is New York State Executive Law 63(12), which was brought up in a court filing today. Emphasis mine, to point out that "there were no victims" (an already false statement) is irrelevant. The same filing is also pushing for the permanent Trump ban, which the NY AG has always been looking for.

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The Heritage Foundation goes full conspiracy theorist as shown in this NYTimes interview given on purpose.

Do you believe that President Biden won the 2020 election?

No.

Can you tell me why?

Sure. I think there are unknowns. I don’t know the outcome, but that’s why I can’t say yes definitively. And I am no conspiracy theorist at all, as some of the election-integrity people on the right will tell you. Still a lot of unknowns about two counties in Arizona, multiple counties in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin. Is it possible he won? Sure. But can I say definitively that he won? No. Having said that, I was very vocal at the end of 2020 and early 2021 that that’s what we knew and the election needed to be certified. And so let’s move on.

Pretty much every bit of evidence has shown there was no substantial fraud.

We have an election-fraud database at Heritage that shows a lot of instances of fraud. What I’m not saying is that the examples in that database prove that Biden didn’t win. I’m not certain that he won.

I will point out, when asked "Did Biden win" he said "no" and only later tried to backtrack to "I'm not certain". That's not good enough.

He also does the same thing Trump has done, claim he has proof of election fraud which he has not shown to anyone. If he has evidence of a crime, maybe he's required by law to report and maybe not, don't know, don't care. But he needs to stop saying "there was a crime, I have proof" and then do nothing.

The Heritage Foundation isn't exactly new or different in the GOP, which is, you guessed it, why I'm taking this NYTimes admission of conspiracy theorist behavior by them to claim it applies to all other GOP members as well. Barring specific refuting, of course, that's always welcome and always invited, any Republican will be assumed to be just as much a conspiracy theorist election denier as the party's front runner Trump and the heavily GOP-aligned Heritage Foundation.

If GOP voters disagree with me lumping them together, all they have to do is say something.