Mega-Thread: Trump Focused Discussion

[PhaelixWW]

Well, it's off to a good start.

[Breccia]

Well, it's off to a good start.

So when I look for stock prices, whatever site I'm sent to lets me look at the day, last 5 days, last month, last 6 months, year to date, and (in this context) forever.

This is still above the $10 initial offer. It is down in all other formats. Everything Trump gained by lying about not selling is now gone, and then some. It was $16.26 when he made the announcement. It is now below that. At best, he slowed the decline. At worse, reasonable people who invested in the...um...okay, so I just realized I was about to suggest reasonable people would have bought Truth Social stock. I'm not even sure shorting it is safe anymore, there are rules and fees and stuff about that, and I don't think the small difference (the stock can't crater to nothing) works in this context.

But what I should have said was, people who knew Trump saying "I will not sell" meant Trump will sell, have already sold in the last few days. There's no more give left in this market. The only hope is an outside source, such as Hannity announcing a Sept 21 story in the next 24 hours.

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Trump Media lockup deadline leaves Trump with a choice: trigger a fire sale or hold a meme stock

That's Fortune magazine. It's not a great read for Trump. Here's a bit from the middle:

If insiders, especially Trump, rushed to offload as many shares as possible when the lockup period ended it would trigger a fire sale. Shareholders, many of whom are retail investors who bought the stock as a show of support for Trump, could see their investments greatly devalued or wiped out. But, as the largest shareholder of the company, no one would have more to lose from a cratering TMTG share price than Trump. The ensuing price drop could make whatever shares he wasn’t able to sell almost worthless, according to Jay Ritter, a professor at the University of Florida Warrington College of Business who studies public offerings.

But holding on to TMTG stock poses its own set of risks, namely that its share price appears entirely divorced from its underlying business results, trading mostly on the fervent devotion Trump inspires in his followers rather than any market fundamentals. That means Trump, as by far the largest shareholder, is caught between a rock and hard place. He can flood the market with shares knowing that whatever he doesn’t manage to sell will be worth a fraction of their original value. Or he can hold on to them and face the daunting prospect of turning TMTG and Truth Social into a genuine tech and media business.

Honestly, a lot of the article is "here's all the times Trump was sued or went bankrupt" and, yes, it's a loooooooong article.

[PhaelixWW]

Still trickling downward.

[some guy]

Now that's the kind of trickle down I can get behind.

[Breccia]

Truth Social stock price reaches record low. Again.

Trump lost two hundred million dollars today.

I have yet to read an article on the topic, even those being as nonpolitical as possible, that said "Trump won't sell his shares". Every single one has instead talked over and over about when he can do it, and how quickly.

Forbes (amongst others) says the lockup period ends tomorrow. I assume they mean "after trading" as in "selloff Sept 20". I still haven't seen Hannity, etc. make up a boosting story. I guess that's tomorrow. If I'm right, expect Trump to spend all Friday yelling at microphones, crowds, and passing clouds about how important this story is, then sell everything at 30 seconds to close. If I'm wrong, Trump will cash out immediately. I do not see any option that has Trump going into the weekend with his stock. Of course, there could be some rule or law or something that I don't know about, but if he sells even one share the price tanks, so it's all or nothing.

[Polgara]

Pour one out for the people who invested their retirement into DJT stocks, and by pour one out I mean into your mouth in celebration.

[PhaelixWW]

Truth Social stock price reaches record low. Again.

To be clear, it didn't actually reach a new low, it just closed at a new record low closing price. A week ago it hit the record low of $15.30, but ended up closing up a bit from there.

I don't expect that distinction to be very comforting to Trump right now, though, since tomorrow is time-to-flush day.

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In premarket action, it's now dropped down to below the record low, to $15.20...

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Oh, shit, it's off to the races...



Edit: Burn, baby, burn.

[Breccia]

Burn, baby, burn.

It has recovered some. At time of writing, $15.15 it bounced off a new floor.

But once again, if you look at 2023, like the whole year, it was basically flat. It started climbing mid-Jan-2024 with things like the Iowa caucus. When it began that climb, it was $17.32

There was some chatter July 2023 which brought the stock price up from being flat in the $12-plus range. So, this isn't the lowest the stock has ever been. But this is still horrible news for Trump's stupid stock. Early 2023 Truth Social had nothing to do. No merger talks, no actual political movements (too early for 2024 race), no help from the buyout, no mention of going public.

Trump's company, right now, is almost as bad as when it was worthless. And not only is he campaigning during an actual race, but the stock is public and there seems to be no lawsuit/crimes being committed. The fact that the stock is this low, when there is potential, is damning.

Everyone is expecting a sellof.

[Doomcookie]

To be clear, it didn't actually reach a new low, it just closed at a new record low closing price. A week ago it hit the record low of $15.30, but ended up closing up a bit from there.

I don't expect that distinction to be very comforting to Trump right now, though, since tomorrow is time-to-flush day.

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In premarket action, it's now dropped down to below the record low, to $15.20...

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Oh, shit, it's off to the races...



Edit: Burn, baby, burn.

I haven't seen something go down that fast since...

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It has recovered some. At time of writing, $15.15 it bounced off a new floor.

But once again, if you look at 2023, like the whole year, it was basically flat. It started climbing mid-Jan-2024 with things like the Iowa caucus. When it began that climb, it was $17.32

There was some chatter July 2023 which brought the stock price up from being flat in the $12-plus range. So, this isn't the lowest the stock has ever been. But this is still horrible news for Trump's stupid stock. Early 2023 Truth Social had nothing to do. No merger talks, no actual political movements (too early for 2024 race), no help from the buyout, no mention of going public.

Trump's company, right now, is almost as bad as when it was worthless. And not only is he campaigning during an actual race, but the stock is public and there seems to be no lawsuit/crimes being committed. The fact that the stock is this low, when there is potential, is damning.

Everyone is expecting a sellof.

As far as I know, Trump really didn't invest much of his own money. So, all of this is just gains for him... at the expense of his supporters. I'll be the first to admit that it's fun watching it collapse, but this is really more of an endorsement deal for Trump, than an actual investment.

That's why I think he will sell. It's free money to him, and he will gladly let a ship sink while he jumps on a lifeboat.

[D Luniz]

I haven't seen something go down that fast since...

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As far as I know, Trump really didn't invest much of his own money. So, all of this is just gains for him... at the expense of his supporters. I'll be the first to admit that it's fun watching it collapse, but this is really more of an endorsement deal for Trump, than an actual investment.

That's why I think he will sell. It's free money to him, and he will gladly let a ship sink while he jumps on a lifeboat.

Rather sure he didn't invest ANY money. The only reason he cared is it was likely the first time in his lifetime he could have been an actual billionaire. But even as a pennystock he'd profit in theory. (If you can find someone will to bribe him buy them even for pennies on the dollar)

[Gorsameth]

The fact that a company that everyone knows will never make a dime of profit has a value above 0 really is a statement about how bullshit the stock market is.
This entire company only exists as a way to pay Trump millions

[Ripster42]

I have yet to read an article on the topic, even those being as nonpolitical as possible, that said "Trump won't sell his shares". Every single one has instead talked over and over about when he can do it, and how quickly.

Well, I guess there's this for you. That being said, I don't know why you'd believe trump.

As far as I know, Trump really didn't invest much of his own money. So, all of this is just gains for him... at the expense of his supporters.

He didn't invest any of his own money. They gave him 1/2 the stock just to make him post there for a couple years. That was his entire investment, being contractually obligated to post there.

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The fact that a company that everyone knows will never make a dime of profit has a value above 0 really is a statement about how bullshit the stock market is.
This entire company only exists as a way to pay Trump millions

Eh, knowing that the company only exists to pay trump means that it's not a reliable indicator towards the regular happenings of markets. Especially when a large section of the investors are admittedly in it only to help trump.

[Doomcookie]

Rather sure he didn't invest ANY money. The only reason he cared is it was likely the first time in his lifetime he could have been an actual billionaire. But even as a pennystock he'd profit in theory. (If you can find someone will to bribe him buy them even for pennies on the dollar)

He's going to profit, off the backs of idiots. That's been his thing for 50 years.

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Well, I guess there's this for you. That being said, I don't know why you'd believe trump.



He didn't invest any of his own money. They gave him 1/2 the stock just to make him post there for a couple years. That was his entire investment, being contractually obligated to post there.

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Eh, knowing that the company only exists to pay trump means that it's not a reliable indicator towards the regular happenings of markets. Especially when a large section of the investors are admittedly in it only to help trump.

He branded himself into a bunch of money, and screwed over investors. The most annoying part is... he's not even a smart grifter.

[Ripster42]

He branded himself into a bunch of money, and screwed over investors. The most annoying part is... he's not even a smart grifter.

Agree with the first part, don't really agree with the second part. He's been successful at grifting for literally 50 years. Managed to con a bunch of people into electing him president. You don't just have a comedy of errors that leads to you getting elected president. You have to have at least SOME savvy.

[Doomcookie]

Agree with the first part, don't really agree with the second part. He's been successful at grifting for literally 50 years. Managed to con a bunch of people into electing him president. You don't just have a comedy of errors that leads to you getting elected president. You have to have at least SOME savvy.

He is a good grifter, just not a smart one. He basically just acts like the biggest, loudest idiot on the planet, and people love him for it.

It's the same as YouTubers and streamers who get famous. It's the same as Joe Rogan. They all got good at roping people in, by being idiots.

[Paranoid Android]

The fact that a company that everyone knows will never make a dime of profit has a value above 0 really is a statement about how bullshit the stock market is.
This entire company only exists as a way to pay Trump millions

So much agree.

Trump isn't losing shit on this; it was easy money for him or just another grift that may not work. I can cheer in Trump idiot supporters who put in their life savings, but I feel the same about crypto idiots too. Oh, what's that? Donald is doing a crypto now? Hmm?

Not a stock market person, but I remember and did quick research that Trump Media Group was very shady appearing on NASDAQ. They didn't disclose user numbers. There was another company they merged with in order to go public. Trump was able to vote with his own interest.

I agree idk how this is not a penny stock. A fly by night company that has no history of earnings and management. Idk how it's at $15 atm. With the obvious objective of Trump becoming President and that is where the value comes from. Oh, I always though a foreign company was going to buy/invest enough if Trump was President to influence him. The all of sudden, Saudi Arabia invest $10 billion in Trump Media. Who would of thought!

[Breccia]

I don't know why you'd believe trump.

Nobody in their right mind would. And based on the drop in value since he said it, what few investors he had left aren't convinced, either.

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Forbes suggests there might be a smarter alternative to dumping all your shares and fleeing. Namely, selling a few, waiting for the price to drop some, waiting for investors to return to the market days/weeks later and take a chance, then dump your shares onto those new investors.

I don't normally disagree with Forbes, they're experts and I'm not. They believe there are vultures waiting for a selloff, only to buy at the lowest price. And selling off fewer shares means they'll buy at a higher price than "scraped off the floor". Again, they're experts and could be right.

But the problem is the majority shareholder is the single person who can destroy the company, is a known liar, a known failure, and desperate for cash. If anyone sells that's not him, he loses value and cash. Forbes also talked about a $15 price barrier which we just dropped back under, $14.78 at time of writing. I'm really curious what will happen at sixty seconds to closing bell.

And the value of Trump's stock is tied to his chances of winning the election, as more and more polls are telling us he's less and less likely to win.

Trump could use the shares as collateral for a loan, which technically isn't selling. It is, however, technically a stupid idea for a bank to do.

Trump could arrange a private sale, not a public one. Either way, the SEC will know within two to five days. Trump doing so quietly would keep the price from plunging immediately, but of course, that means someone willing to do a private sale is buying something they know will immediately lose most of its value.

And I don't think Russians or criminals are looking to own pieces of paper with Trump's Sharpee handwriting saying "I promise this has value".

Sorry, Forbes, I could be wrong here, but I just don't see Trump doing anything other than offloading as much as possible immediately. If you haven't sold yet, now's the time.

[AntiFascistVoter]

C'mon $12.oo ... No Whammies! No Whammies!

$12 is funny because it will extend Trump's lockout by 5 moe days.

[Breccia]

$12 is funny because it will extend Trump's lockout by 5 moe days.

And anyone else with 5% or more. Near as I can tell, about one-third of DJT stock holders are "small investors" who could potentially flee today. If it was a mass exodus, we'll see the wrong end of $12.

[Gorsameth]

Nobody in their right mind would. And based on the drop in value since he said it, what few investors he had left aren't convinced, either.

- - - Updated - - -

Forbes suggests there might be a smarter alternative to dumping all your shares and fleeing. Namely, selling a few, waiting for the price to drop some, waiting for investors to return to the market days/weeks later and take a chance, then dump your shares onto those new investors.

I don't normally disagree with Forbes, they're experts and I'm not. They believe there are vultures waiting for a selloff, only to buy at the lowest price. And selling off fewer shares means they'll buy at a higher price than "scraped off the floor". Again, they're experts and could be right.

But the problem is the majority shareholder is the single person who can destroy the company, is a known liar, a known failure, and desperate for cash. If anyone sells that's not him, he loses value and cash. Forbes also talked about a $15 price barrier which we just dropped back under, $14.78 at time of writing. I'm really curious what will happen at sixty seconds to closing bell.

And the value of Trump's stock is tied to his chances of winning the election, as more and more polls are telling us he's less and less likely to win.

Trump could use the shares as collateral for a loan, which technically isn't selling. It is, however, technically a stupid idea for a bank to do.

Trump could arrange a private sale, not a public one. Either way, the SEC will know within two to five days. Trump doing so quietly would keep the price from plunging immediately, but of course, that means someone willing to do a private sale is buying something they know will immediately lose most of its value.

And I don't think Russians or criminals are looking to own pieces of paper with Trump's Sharpee handwriting saying "I promise this has value".

Sorry, Forbes, I could be wrong here, but I just don't see Trump doing anything other than offloading as much as possible immediately. If you haven't sold yet, now's the time.

vultures waiting to buy at the lowest price would need to expect this stock to still exist to sell in the future.

Its lighting 16 million a quarter on fire. They won't default while Trump holds his shares because that defeats the purpose of it being a money laundering scheme for him but once he is out there is nothing keeping it afloat.