Mega-Thread: Trump Focused Discussion

[Breccia]

You know...Hannity never made up a bullshit story. Uh..well, either he's planning to do it later today, creating a giant spike just when Trump hits the "SELL SELL SELL" button, or he realized nothing he could say could possibly brace for impact enough...or more realistically, called that one wrong.

I was so sure.

[gondrin]

Hmm, but won't Trump be able to sell tomorrow? Even at that price he'll be making, what, at least a billion from absolutely nothing? I hope some "glitch" keeps his broker locked out until it's a literal penny stock.

Not really. Thing about stocks, much like bitcoin, is that someone has to buy it from him. And as of now, I don't see anyone buying that many shares of the company. A few thousand shares? Sure. But when you get into the millions of shares, that actively has to be reported to the SEC and the NYSE has the ability to put a hold on it outright to make sure things are on the up and up. And if there is nobody willing to buy those shares then he makes no money.

[PhaelixWW]

You know...Hannity never made up a bullshit story. Uh..well, either he's planning to do it later today, creating a giant spike just when Trump hits the "SELL SELL SELL" button, or he realized nothing he could say could possibly brace for impact enough...or more realistically, called that one wrong.

I was so sure.

Well, Trump's been able to legally sell since yesterday.

[Breccia]

Well, Trump's been able to legally sell since yesterday.

But only privately, right? The markets were closed?

I have to wonder, if Trump approached anyone with a private sale, what price was he asking? Because you and I and the world knows it's not worth $14

[gondrin]

So, it has dropped 1.00 so far. For most well known tech companies, that isn't much.

However, for this company, that is literally 6-7% of their entire net worth. That would be like if Apple, valued at nearly $3.7 trillion, were to lose in one hour about $200 billion in value.

[PhaelixWW]

But only privately, right? The markets were closed?

Oh, I guess it did. Most places were just saying "Thursday afternoon", but I guess it was actually 4pm, or closing bell time.

- - - Updated - - -

So, it has dropped 1.00 so far. For most well known tech companies, that isn't much.

However, for this company, that is literally 6-7% of their entire net worth. That would be like if Apple, valued at nearly $3.7 trillion, were to lose in one hour about $200 billion in value.

Most of that drop was in overnight trading, little by little.

It technically opened up down $0.70 at $14.00, but it was $13.80 just before open and then $13.70 just after, so...

[gondrin]

But only privately, right? The markets were closed?

I have to wonder, if Trump approached anyone with a private sale, what price was he asking? Because you and I and the world knows it's not worth $14

Yep. He could sell overnight to a private seller for whatever price they agreed upon and when the markets opened, they would complete the transaction. It would take a couple of months to go through due to the sheer size of it but it is possible.

I mean, it took Elon about 6 months to complete the transaction to fully buyout Twitter shares.

[PhaelixWW]

I mean, it took Elon about 6 months to complete the transaction to fully buyout Twitter shares.

And then about the same amount of time or even less to tank the value. Heh.

[gondrin]

And then about the same amount of time or even less to tank the value. Heh.

Who would have thought that a supposed 100% free speech platform is bad for business? I mean, who doesn't love to advertise and do business with a place that allows racist, racial supremacy arguments, bots and outright just vulgar speech to run rampant?

/s

[Breccia]

So the stock is down, no surprise there, but didn't instantly burst into flames.

I guess it's not a yuge, bigly surprise. Trump can sell his shares without saying so in public. And as pointed out before, might be trying to maximize their value by selling them off bits at a time. I'll be honest, I was expecting a giant smoking crater, but I guess Trump's not 100% incompetent about manipulating the value of his name by blatantly lying in public, is he?

I don't see a reasonable situation leading to an increase in the value. Someone could yell "BUY BUY BUY!" but that would not be reasonable. The company is a pit that kills money. Nobody wants it, not even Trump.

[Doomcookie]

So the stock is down, no surprise there, but didn't instantly burst into flames.

I guess it's not a yuge, bigly surprise. Trump can sell his shares without saying so in public. And as pointed out before, might be trying to maximize their value by selling them off bits at a time. I'll be honest, I was expecting a giant smoking crater, but I guess Trump's not 100% incompetent about manipulating the value of his name by blatantly lying in public, is he?

I don't see a reasonable situation leading to an increase in the value. Someone could yell "BUY BUY BUY!" but that would not be reasonable. The company is a pit that kills money. Nobody wants it, not even Trump.

The volume is very high, already about 7 million in 90 minutes.

Nobody with any money, who isn't a complete moron, wants that stock for gains. He will find fools to just throw money at him. But, they won't even get an ugly hat out of the deal.

[PhaelixWW]

The volume is very high, already about 7 million in 90 minutes.

I mean... "very high"... meh.

Trump has 114.5 million shares to offload, and the others in the lockup have another 18 million.

[Breccia]

The volume is very high, already about 7 million in 90 minutes.

Correct me if I'm misreading this: that's people hitting either "sell" with a price too high, or "buy" with a price too low, so it's 7 million shares that want to be traded but it hasn't happened yet?

[Doomcookie]

Correct me if I'm misreading this: that's people hitting either "sell" with a price too high, or "buy" with a price too low, so it's 7 million shares that want to be traded but it hasn't happened yet?

It's the number of shares already traded. I don't know how exactly each type of order works in the tally. We'll see what the end volume is. If I were offloading, I'd set to sell shares in low volumes throughout the day. There's just no way to dump them all.

[Breccia]

It's the number of shares already traded. I don't know how exactly each type of order works in the tally.

Yeah, neither do I. Interesting that people were willing to buy at $13 and change when everyone's calling for a massive selloff.

[PhaelixWW]

Correct me if I'm misreading this: that's people hitting either "sell" with a price too high, or "buy" with a price too low, so it's 7 million shares that want to be traded but it hasn't happened yet?

No, it's the total volume of completed share trades. It's the sum of all the shares in share transactions.

I'd say it's the total number of shares traded, but shares can be traded more than once in the same day, and then would count for more than 1 in the volume.

[Doomcookie]

Yeah, neither do I. Interesting that people were willing to buy at $13 and change when everyone's calling for a massive selloff.

Some people will have to buy, just because they have to make good on short sales. But, the majority of this volume is going to be will people who see the trend, and want to sell. They are probably putting the sale for slightly below market value, in order to expedite. I suck with market terminology.

[Breccia]

Some people will have to buy, just because they have to make good on short sales.

Interesting tactic. I thought there were plenty of shares due for that already.

We all know there's an extra fee this time, DJT is a meme stock. While betting on it falling is a good bet, it has to be a fantastic bet before I'd do it myself. Which, considering the stock still hasn't cratered, I suspect people are now betting against the betters -- possibly direct market manipulation by Trump.

[Doomcookie]

Interesting tactic. I thought there were plenty of shares due for that already.

We all know there's an extra fee this time, DJT is a meme stock. While betting on it falling is a good bet, it has to be a fantastic bet before I'd do it myself. Which, considering the stock still hasn't cratered, I suspect people are now betting against the betters -- possibly direct market manipulation by Trump.

The fee was astronomical, because everyone knew the stock is built on falsehoods and worship. I'm not a fan of short selling, mainly because the market has been strong for 15 years. Just investing in standard funds, and focusing on moderate growth, means very good returns. At this point, the markets are free money, and the returns are great. I'm old, but when I was younger, the normal talk was returns of 3-5% per year. It was all about showing it would beat inflation. Now, we're talking about annual returns of 10-15% as a standard.

But, I got sidetracked.

If you look at the numbers behind some companies, like DJT, it's baffling that anyone would put a penny into it. The net margin is -10,000%. Sure, some new companies will have a negative margin, because they are expecting major growth in coming quarters. This is usually the case with start ups, and that's what the game is all about. But, that number is beyond crazy.

Oh, and the volume is already almost as high as it was all day, yesterday. And, yesterday was higher than most.

[gondrin]

The fee was astronomical, because everyone knew the stock is built on falsehoods and worship. I'm not a fan of short selling, mainly because the market has been strong for 15 years. Just investing in standard funds, and focusing on moderate growth, means very good returns. At this point, the markets are free money, and the returns are great. I'm old, but when I was younger, the normal talk was returns of 3-5% per year. It was all about showing it would beat inflation. Now, we're talking about annual returns of 10-15% as a standard.

But, I got sidetracked.

If you look at the numbers behind some companies, like DJT, it's baffling that anyone would put a penny into it. The net margin is -10,000%. Sure, some new companies will have a negative margin, because they are expecting major growth in coming quarters. This is usually the case with start ups, and that's what the game is all about. But, that number is beyond crazy.

Oh, and the volume is already almost as high as it was all day, yesterday. And, yesterday was higher than most.

Oh, I can definitely see why people were putting money into it. Not because they were expecting an actual functioning business and a legit investment but it is the same as what happened with GameStop a few years ago except for the short squeeze event. You had people buying in at the beginning knowing that they would make money, even if it right where it is now and sell when they would be able to. This is what we have been seeing over the past month or so, those people getting out.

All you have now are bag holders, restricted stock that had to wait to be sold and short sellers that are looking to make a buck or two off of a failing company. Yes, the volume is very high but that is to expected for the next few trading days seeing as the restricted shares are probably being sold off. If the stock price survives $10 a share by the end of next week, I'll be shocked. I can see it even go sub $8 by then.