Mega-Thread: Trump Focused Discussion

[Breccia]

Speaking of conspiracy theories:

Katherine Maher, the leftist NPR CEO, is currently the Chair of the Board of Signal!

WHAT ARE THE ODDS?

-- post intentionally reTweeted by Trump

Some random Trump supporter broadcasting a conspiracy theory is nothing new. We see it on these very forums, where they're completely genuine completely honest posts adding substantially to the conversation, apparently. But for Trump to press it along is now the WH's official position. Trump is now saying the CEO of Signal, a messaging system his own people used on purpose, is not only trying to damage him, but somehow knew about the invite to a journalist and personally allowed it to happen real-time.

That's how desperate Trump and his supporters are.

[Rasulis]

Tax collection projections are down. Refunds are up.

I guess when you crash the stock market, your quarterly tax payments go down also.

That’s a potentially worrying sign for bond market watchers and the broader economy if the trend continues. Most estimates show the US running out of funds to cover all of its obligations on time in the late summer or early fall, but some forecasters have also warned weak revenue intake could mean a breach as soon as late May or June.

The US Treasury’s cash balance dropped to $281 billion on Thursday, according to the latest data from the department. Beyond that stockpile, it had, as of March 26, only $207 billion of so-called extraordinary measures left to continue to fulfill its financial obligations.

Tumult in Washington — cuts in the ranks of Internal Revenue Service agents spurred by Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency, along with a tariff campaign that’s damaging consumer and business sentiment — could be contributing to lower-than-predicted tax collections, experts said.

The Congressional Budget Office on Wednesday warned about the potential for an earlier-than-anticipated debt ceiling breach, saying its baseline X-date estimate is for August or September, but noted that, if the government’s borrowing needs are significantly greater than projected, the Treasury’s resources could run out as early as late May.

So far this year, IRS receipts are coming in slower than projected. Filing season statistics show that the number of returns the agency has received is down 1.1%, compared with a similar time frame for 2024. Tax payments tend to spike in the final weeks before April 15 as filers who owe wait as long as possible to send in their money. As for refunds, however, the total is 4.6% higher than last year.

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Speaking of conspiracy theories:


-- post intentionally reTweeted by Trump

Some random Trump supporter broadcasting a conspiracy theory is nothing new. We see it on these very forums, where they're completely genuine completely honest posts adding substantially to the conversation, apparently. But for Trump to press it along is now the WH's official position. Trump is now saying the CEO of Signal, a messaging system his own people used on purpose, is not only trying to damage him, but somehow knew about the invite to a journalist and personally allowed it to happen real-time.

That's how desperate Trump and his supporters are.

NPR never try to hide the fact. Every time they talked about the Signal story, they always disclose that Katherine Maher is on the board.

[Edge-]

NPR never try to hide the fact. Every time they talked about the Signal story, they always disclose that Katherine Maher is on the board.

You see, they tried to hide it because conservatives don't listen to NPR so how are they supposed to know her position on the board was disclosed whenever NPR reported on it?

[tehdang]

Useless trivia, but did you guys know Gerard Depardieu won a Golden Globe for playing a guy who enters a marriage of convenience for a green card in the movie titled (le gasp!) Green Card?

Cool trivia!

Why does the left and right always give us the worst fucking people to rally behind. It's either some shitter like this or some career criminal like Floyd killed by cops, or some insane psychopath like Kyle Rittenhouse on the other side.

The edge cases, or perception of them, always generate the most controversy. The right to march, but Nazis in Skokie challenge how firm you believe in it. Second amendment and self defense, but some questionable decisions. Speech and protest and, but a terrorist-supporting shitbag and maybe some property destruction and violent threats against fellow students. Due process of citizens vs green card holders and the relaxed removal criteria. It sucks but the easier cases don’t generate as much controversy.

[Rasulis]

China, Japan, South Korea will jointly respond to US tariffs, Chinese state media says

That's not good. Only Trump, the Uniter, could make those three countries work together and put up a united economic front against the US.

[Edge-]

China, Japan, South Korea will jointly respond to US tariffs, Chinese state media says

That's not good. Only Trump, the Uniter, could make those three countries work together and put up a united economic front against the US.

he is the uniter

uniting the free world against the us, functionally

it's funny how republicans frequently accidentally accomplish their goals, but in the reverse. like those republican politicians loudly arguing to prosecute pedophiles that get arrested for trying to have sex with a child

[DarkTZeratul]

I would happily wager that if we pumped our own gas, it would not come with a price reduction. All that would happen is the owner of the station has less overhead they need to pay, and will pocket the extra cash.

All you have to do is look at the Trump tax cuts. Every single Republican insisted up and down that cutting taxes would mean businesses could lower prices and raise wages. Instead they pocketed the difference and did a ton of stock buybacks to raise their share prices and enrich their investors.

[Breccia]

Trump Recession Odds Have Doubled: Moody's Chief Economist

The likelihood that the U.S. economy will plunge into a recession in 2025 has risen to 40 percent, from an initial 15 percent estimated by Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi at the start of the year.

"But he hasn't even announced tariffs!"

Correct. That's how bad of an idea this is. Just yelling the word "Tariff!" in about to cause a recession. Simply put, Trump is not just doing something counterproductive, he's doing so without a plan of any kind. He's already flip-flopped on tariffs multiple times. Nobody can set up their business based on Trump's fickle whims.

In a post published on social media platform X on Sunday, Zandi wrote: "I'm raising my odds that a recession will begin sometime this year to 40 percent, up from 15 percent at the start of the year."

According to him, last week's economic data "were disconcerting, including the slide in consumer confidence, punk consumer spending, and persistently high inflation."

The "intensifying trade war and DOGE cuts are behind all this," Zandi said, adding that Trump's imposition of a 25 percent tariff on all cars and certain car parts imported to the U.S, and likely retaliatory tariffs threatened by the U.S. trade partners, "are sure" to make things worse.

While Zandi thinks that a recession is now much more likely than it was in January, before Trump's return to the White House, he believes that a recession this year "remains less likely than not only because layoffs remain low and job and income growth positive."

"Aren't the Q1 GDP growth and job numbers coming out in a matter of days?"

Yes.

"So he could dramatically change his mind, based on actual objective evidence, and not wild conspiracy theories?"

Yes.

The new jobs report for March set to be released on Friday will give experts a better sense of whether these dynamics will continue, propping up the U.S. economy and preventing it from sliding into a recession.

"It is premature to expect much fallout from the trade war and DOGE cuts in the jobs data, suggesting a monthly payroll job gain of close to 150,000," Zandi said.

"Anything south of 100k would be worrisome, and anything north of 200k would be welcome. But whatever the job number, as long as the tariffs and DOGE cuts continue to mount, so too will the odds of recession."

"Well, at least it's just that one guy."

Yes, "that one guy" who happens to be a leading expert. Oh, and Goldman Sachs.

On Sunday, Goldman Sachs raised its tariffs assumptions for the second time in less than a month, saying it now expects the average U.S. tariff to rise 15pp in 2025, reflecting a more aggressive scenario including reciprocal tariffs from the country's trade partners.

Higher tariffs, Goldman Sachs said, are likely to bring consumer prices up, with researchers estimating year-end 2025 core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation of 3.5 percent year-over-year, up 0.5pp from previous forecasts.

As a result, Goldman Sachs now expects a 35 percent possibility of the U.S. entering a recession in the next 12 months, up from its previous 20 percent.

The article then lists a bunch of experts that more or less agree that either inflation or stagflation is assured, when Trump unilaterally raises prices. Trump has explained nothing, other than his usual "wait and see, it's shitty policy but gives better ratings!" but April 2 will either be what he said, causing markets to drop and consumer dread to continue, or Trump will salvage the markets by not doing what he promised to do.

- - - Updated - - -

This case has been closed here at the White House, as far as we are concerned

--official word of the WH

[Edge-]

so arguably the biggest opsec failure in US history, at least this millennium, and republicans want to pretend it's a nothingberder and ignore it without any consequences for mike waltz or anyone else using a civilian app on civilian devices to discuss classified materials/war plans and was dumb enough to add a journalist or not notice that they'd been added to a group chat

i continue to say if there's another democratic administration, pardons for folks like these people should be summarily ignored.

[Draco-Onis]

so arguably the biggest opsec failure in US history, at least this millennium, and republicans want to pretend it's a nothingberder and ignore it without any consequences for mike waltz or anyone else using a civilian app on civilian devices to discuss classified materials/war plans and was dumb enough to add a journalist or not notice that they'd been added to a group chat

i continue to say if there's another democratic administration, pardons for folks like these people should be summarily ignored.

I think Mike Waltz will be thrown under the bus not for the security failure but because he clearly had that journalist in his contacts making him a traitor to the dear leader. Trump and co will not look kindly to someone leaking information to journalists, everyone else is probably safe from any consequence.

- - - Updated - - -

Why does the left and right always give us the worst fucking people to rally behind. It's either some shitter like this or some career criminal like Floyd killed by cops, or some insane psychopath like Kyle Rittenhouse on the other side.

If your stance depends on who is in the cross hairs then you don't have morals you just have opinions. If you believe in free speech you shouldn't have any trouble with Neo Nazis expressing it, if you believe in freedom of religion you should have no problem with Muslims.

[Edge-]

I think Mike Waltz will be thrown under the bus not for the security failure but because he clearly had that journalist in his contacts making him a traitor to the dear leader.

did you miss the memo? elon, the genius, is going to look into how it happened because mike waltz isn't a colossal fucking idiot who was using a personal device with personal contacts on it when using the civilian app to discuss war plans

elon will find the superhacker

Trump and co will not look kindly to someone leaking information to journalists, everyone else is probably safe from any consequence.

so-called journalists*

gotta remember the talking points, fam

[Breccia]

so arguably the biggest opsec failure in US history, at least this millennium, and republicans want to pretend it's a nothingberder and ignore it without any consequences for mike waltz or anyone else using a civilian app on civilian devices to discuss classified materials/war plans and was dumb enough to add a journalist or not notice that they'd been added to a group chat

The cultists are too far gone, but it must be harder and harder to attempt to be a classic conservative siding with Trump, and see time and again Team Trump do everything they accused the Democrats of doing, except Team Trump doing worse. Remember all those "paid Soros activist" things? Now Musk is just handing out million dollar checks, or claiming to, for people to vote the way he tells them.

[Xath]

There is also a real pervasive attitude of it can't happen here. I have relatives who are worth low eight figures and have donated significant amounts to both dems and charity their whole life. They have the money to look into going elsewhere and doing an investment visa but they just keep saying that people will stop him.

[gondrin]

I love it.



"They point out that there is nothing “part-time” in the language of the companion senate and house bills currently before lawmakers, which instead will permit unlimited working hours without breaks for 14- and 15-year-olds who are schooled at home or online, and allow employers to require 16- and 17-year-olds to work for more than six days in a row"

Could you imagine raising a kid who has hours of homework each night, is involved with sports or other after school activity, and has to work 6 days a week?

Absolutely no consequences to that at all! /s

And the jobs a LOT of immigrants do is ones that teens aren't going to do. Farm work. Very hard, very tiresome, very backbreaking farm work.

- - - Updated - - -

Speaking of conspiracy theories:


-- post intentionally reTweeted by Trump

Some random Trump supporter broadcasting a conspiracy theory is nothing new. We see it on these very forums, where they're completely genuine completely honest posts adding substantially to the conversation, apparently. But for Trump to press it along is now the WH's official position. Trump is now saying the CEO of Signal, a messaging system his own people used on purpose, is not only trying to damage him, but somehow knew about the invite to a journalist and personally allowed it to happen real-time.

That's how desperate Trump and his supporters are.

Democrats really need to ramp up the pressure on the whole Signal debacle. Literally just push it as hard as possible in every which way. And every time some Democrat or liberal or whomever goes on a Trump friendly news show, bring it up again. Keep it in the active thoughts of people as how bad it is.

[Edge-]

And the jobs a LOT of immigrants do is ones that teens aren't going to do. Farm work. Very hard, very tiresome, very backbreaking farm work.

American teens*

Because immigrant teens who were trafficked here or were otherwise here undocumented have been hired by US companies to do jobs like "cleaning meat packing facilities" - https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/fed...uses-rcna72930

[gondrin]

he is the uniter

uniting the free world against the us, functionally

it's funny how republicans frequently accidentally accomplish their goals, but in the reverse. like those republican politicians loudly arguing to prosecute pedophiles that get arrested for trying to have sex with a child

I said it very early on that Trump is going to do one thing that hasn't been done ever. In getting the world to basically dislike or outright hate the US. He is the Great Unifier.

Just not in the way he wants.

[Xath]

Dems if they aren't complicit need to stop calling this shit tariffs and call them what they are regressive taxes on the working class.

[Breccia]

Trump threatens bombing if Iran does not make nuclear deal

"Oh come on, there's no way he said that."

If they don't make a deal, there will be bombing. It will be bombing the likes of which they have never seen before.

That sure sounds like wanting to start a war in the Middle East to me. Hey @tehdang the dictator and rapist you deliberately support is now pushing for a war in the Middle East. Therefore, you now want war in the Middle East unless you specifically say otherwise.

[gondrin]

Dems if they aren't complicit need to stop calling this shit tariffs and call them what they are regressive taxes on the working class.

I believe the only person not calling them taxes is Trump and the hardcore MAGA crowd. Everyone else sees them for what they are, a tax on the middle class and poor people. From Fox News basically not being able to sugarcoat it to Republicans in Congress having a problem with them to normal everyday people that aren't part of the cult that may not know much but they know what a tax is, it has not gone over well.

The only people actually cheering them on are the auto unions because they think it will bring jobs back when in reality, it may to a point BUT it won't be in union friendly states, only states where there isn't a union presence.

But hey, because Trump is actively threatening the car manufacturers if they raise their prices in regard to the tariffs is that there is knowledge they may just call it a day and shut down for a while and therefore not be ANY auto maker job out there.

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Trump threatens bombing if Iran does not make nuclear deal

"Oh come on, there's no way he said that."



That sure sounds like wanting to start a war in the Middle East to me. Hey @tehdang the dictator and rapist you deliberately support is now pushing for a war in the Middle East. Therefore, you now want war in the Middle East unless you specifically say otherwise.

be bombing the likes of which they have never seen before

Hmm, unless there is a new type of bomb out there, not sure if people haven't seen it before Don.

I mean, there is video of the bombs dropped on Nagasaki and Hiroshima. There is the video of Tsar Bomba. There is video of the cluster bombing during WW2 and during the US war in Afghanistan.

I think your dementia is kicking in Don. Because unless there is a neutron bomb or some new type, we have seen pretty much all kinds of bombing. I mean, they are watching it live, right now, happening in Gaza.

Anything to distract from the fact that you, right now, have a failed administration because you cannot even achieve your stated goal of deporting people.

[PhaelixWW]

I said it very early on that Trump is going to do one thing that hasn't been done ever. In getting the world to basically dislike or outright hate the US. He is the Great Unifier.

Just not in the way he wants.

I keep coming back to it: history will not be kind to this timeline.

In 50 years, the Trump era will be a cautionary tale.