Mega-Thread: Trump Focused Discussion

[Kathranis]

I don't think someone can spin their way out of running on lowering prices, and then intentionally raising prices as soon as they get into office. I've seen Fox News and other conservative outlets pretend like this is some righteous cause, but I just don't see Americans buying it. ESPECIALLY when they push those tax cuts through while people are getting laid off.

A pretty solid chunk of the MAGA base is blindly loyal to Trump and their pea brains are only big enough to hold the latest talking point they heard, but that's enough for them. They've already bought into this being a "punishment" for unfair practices from trade partners, and that enduring economic hardship now will be worth it for some vague payoff in the future.

No matter what the impact on them is it's hard for me to imagine them ever actually connecting the dots back to Trump's policy.

He's probably losing the libertarians though, they hate tariffs for the same reason they hate taxes. Think our own teh_dang probably falls into that camp.

And then there's the owner class, on one level this is essentially a working class tax hike so that they can get their own tax breaks, but economic uncertainty slows spending and recessions aren't great for anyone, so...

[Breccia]

JPMorgan stops fucking around and flat-out says "this is stupid".

Analysts at JPMorgan Chase warned that the impact of President Donald Trump’s new set of tariffs could take the economy “perilously close to slipping into recession.”

The gloomy economic forecast was released hours after Trump rocked the global financial markets with his announcement of sweeping tariffs in a Rose Garden ceremony on Wednesday – which he dubbed “liberation day.”

But as financial markets tumbled in the wake of the tariffs targeting China and the European Union in particular, analysts at JPMorgan estimated hours after the announcement that the tariffs would amount to “the largest tax increase since the Revenue Act of 1968.”

“The somewhat confusing nature of today’s news, coupled with uncertainty over how long these tariffs will remain in place, should make for an even less friendly environment for investment spending,” the report said.

Trump's announcement, the analysts noted, would raise just under $400 billion in revenue — or about 1.3% of GDP. It could also hike Personal Consumption Expenditure prices by up to 1.5% this year.

"The resulting hit to purchasing power could take real disposable personal income growth in 2Q-3Q into negative territory, and with it the risk that real consumer spending could also contract in those quarters. This impact alone could take the economy perilously close to slipping into recession. And this is before accounting for the additional hits to gross exports and to investment spending."

Later in the report, the analysts warned that amid retaliatory measures expected in the coming days, the "somewhat confusing nature of today's news" — coupled with "uncertainty over how long these tariffs will remain" — should "make for an even less friendly environment for investment spending (though that is one way to narrow the saving — investment imbalance and hence narrow the current account deficit)."

"Wasn't Q1 already forecast to have negative GDP growth?"

Yes.

"So adding Q2 and Q3, that would basically mean Trump single-handedly is going to create negative GDP growth for a full year, without even COVID to blame?"

According to actual experts, yes.

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The WSJ opines that Blowing up the world trading system has consequences that Trump isn’t advertising.

Mr. Trump is making a deliberate decision to transfer wealth from consumers to businesses and workers protected from competition behind high tariff walls. Over time this will mean the gradual erosion of U.S. competitiveness.

The board also takes issue with Trump's use of "reciprocal", calling it "in name only" or, in other words, "Trump is lying".

The OP ED basically goes line-by-line saying "this is a bad idea and will have significant negative effects". Higher prices. Lower trade, as US exports also grind to a halt. Recession. Oh, and this:

Mr. Trump is shattering that trust as he punishes allies and blows up the USMCA that he negotiated in his first term

The hits go on and on. Nobody whose jobs it is to find value in America's future, finds value in America's future.

[Moralgy]

I love reading conservatives being "scared of midterms right now" like why are they scared if their ideology isnt shit.

[Bwgmon]

I love reading conservatives being "scared of midterms right now" like why are they scared if their ideology isnt shit.

Same way they're all "we're actually super popular, everyone supports us and we can do anything" while having to hide from public events and, at least in Musk's case, feeling the need to outright buy support in elections.

[Trifle]

I love reading conservatives being "scared of midterms right now" like why are they scared if their ideology isnt shit.

If Republicans were really scared of the mid terms, all they'd need to do is just stop the tariffs happening. It's not like Trump actually has the authority to do it in the first place, the only reason it's happening is because congress are turning a blind eye.

[Tech614]

If Republicans were really scared of the mid terms, all they'd need to do is just stop the tariffs happening. It's not like Trump actually has the authority to do it in the first place, the only reason it's happening is because congress are turning a blind eye.

There is enough slightly sane republicans in the Senate to vote against Trump tariffs(the vote to end canada tariffs just passed with 4 republican yes votes), it will come down to if there is enough in the house.

[Muzjhath]

We all know this is coming. We have been talking about it since he won. I took him at his words.

I hope all of you have bought everything that need in the foreseeable future and fix everything that needs to be fixed. If you have old washing machine and dryer, may want to consider replacing them NOW. Make sure to have enough cash reserves to avoid selling assets at depressed prices during emergencies. Six months at least. Ideally 12 months.

With what money?

This is the missing part of practically all your arguments.

[gondrin]

There is enough slightly sane republicans in the Senate to vote against Trump tariffs(the vote to end canada tariffs just passed with 4 republican yes votes), it will come down to if there is enough in the house.

Hopefully there are. I don't see it seeing as they are pretty much all in on removing their actual authority in this as they already voted on not being able to stop Trump's tariffs.

[SAY HER NAME]

There is enough slightly sane republicans in the Senate to vote against Trump tariffs(the vote to end canada tariffs just passed with 4 republican yes votes), it will come down to if there is enough in the house.

I hate that the Republican Party has become such a cult of Trump that Mitch McConnell of all people is comparatively sane.

Yeah yeah he is no Trump Sycophant but without him there aer no Trump Sycophants.

[PhaelixWW]

i can't wait for the "global markets are all conspiring against us and so is the dow and the nasdaq" cope tomorrow

Wheeeeeeeeee...

[gondrin]

Wheeeeeeeeee...

Overseas markets look roughly the same. Between a 2 - 3% loss so far. And it will probably only get worse from here. And since they are basically tariffing the entire tech sector, those stocks are taking a massive hit. In the range of 8 - 12% loss after hours.

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So, on the news that Trump has tariffed a deserted island. How about also a US military base? Those damn soldiers causing their trade imbalance.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...bc5e0c00&ei=11

President Donald Trump imposed tariffs on uninhabited islands and a U.S. military base on Wednesday as he announced his widespread levies.

Trump imposed tariffs on the uninhabited Heard and McDonald Islands in the sub-Antarctic Indian Ocean, Axios noted.

The mostly barren UNESCO World Heritage site was featured on Trump’s list of areas that now face a minimum of 10 percent tariffs on U.S. imports, along with mainland Australia.

“It takes around 10 days, depending on the weather, to get to Heard Island by ship from the port of Fremantle, near Perth in Western Australia,” according to the Australian Antarctic Program. The islands feature “penguin, seal and flying bird colonies, which include several species with conservation status at a national and international level.”

The 10 percent levy was also imposed on the British Indian Ocean Territory, which only counts U.S. and U.K. service members as its inhabitants at the Diego Garcia base.

So, Trump has tariffed penguins, seals and flying birds. Along with US service members.

Take that you fowl.

[PhaelixWW]

So, Trump has tariffed penguins, seals and flying birds. Along with US service members.

Flappers, flippers, and suckers, oh my.

[Kaleredar]

So, Trump has tariffed penguins, seals and flying birds.

@Somewhatconcerned can you explain? Clearly there must be some connection in tariffing penguins to making the price of eggs go lower, right?

Are the tariffs working? I’m so confused, it seems like Trump has no fucking clue what he’s doing, that he has no plan, never had a plan, and that he’s throwing away decades of American geopolitical and economic global hegemony for absolutely no reason, least of all to the benefit of the average American?

Surely that can’t be it? You said “don’t bet against America” when Trump announced all this and everyone called it a bad idea, you must have data or some sort of evidence to back this up, right?

Or is the doubt finally creeping into your brain?

[Zaydin]

I do look forward to seeing how MAGAts everywhere, including here, will be told how to try and spin the bloodbath that will be the stock market today when it opens.

Also, Rand Paul is saying out loud that he's worried these tariffs will lead to a repeat of 1932 for the Republican Party.

[DarkTZeratul]

Also, Rand Paul is saying out loud that he's worried these tariffs will lead to a repeat of 1932 for the Republican Party.

"If we nominate Trump, we will get destroyed ... and we will deserve it."

[bloodkin]

Interesting how Russia and North Korea didn't get any tariffs.

If some orange cheeto in the white house would be a Russian asset, you'd think they would've at least tried to not make it obvious.

[Huehuecoyotl]

So are the markets really going to tank completely? Or is there going to be a degree of pricing in that the wider GOP won't allow this stupidity to go ahead?

Because if the markets genuinely believe this is going to happen, surely today will see them shooting to whatever the opposite of the moon is.

[Lynarii]

Hopefully there are. I don't see it seeing as they are pretty much all in on removing their actual authority in this as they already voted on not being able to stop Trump's tariffs.

It doesn't matter. Speaker Johnson will never let it be voted on in the House even if it has the support to pass, and Trump would veto it immediately if it did. To actually force an end to the fake emergency would require a veto-proof majority, and that will never happen.

[DarkTZeratul]

Interesting how Russia and North Korea didn't get any tariffs.

If some orange cheeto in the white house would be a Russian asset, you'd think they would've at least tried to not make it obvious.

Ukraine-related sanctions have already effectively reduced trade with Russia to near zero, and it's illegal to import anything from North Korea anyway.

[hellhamster]

Japan says the US is in breach of world trade regulations.

China calls for immediate dismissal of the tariffs as they will spark "world growth stagnation".

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This will be a massive case for international trade law. I'm certain most countries will fight tooth and nail through courtrooms to try and abolish the tariffs. This will cost a lot of money, which the taxpayer will obviously provide.