Mega-Thread: Trump Focused Discussion

[david0925]

I'm surprised they didn't try to fit God somewhere in that interview

[Breccia]

The Fed continues to point out that the problem isn't them reporting the numbers, it's the problem the numbers are describing - and those are Trump's fault.

The Federal Reserve now faces risks to both its inflation and jobs goals, with policymakers needing to balance which seems the more serious threat in deciding whether it is appropriate to reduce interest rates, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said on Friday.

Yeah, remember a few days ago when I pointed out the Fed also changes rates to help with job growth? Still true.

Between tariffs pushing up prices and job growth slowing, "there are risks on both sides of our mandate, and when that happens, when you have risks on both sides, you have to take a balanced approach, which means you have to think about the likelihood of missing on each side of the mandate, the size of the potential miss, and how long that miss will be in place," Musalem said to an economic group in Mississippi. "That's the balancing act that we're doing right now."

Musalem, a voter on interest rate policy this year, did not say whether he feels the policy rate of interest should be reduced at the Fed's September 16-17 meeting. He voted in favor of keeping the policy rate steady in the current 4.25% to 4.5% range at the Fed meeting last week.

That meeting, however, was followed two days later by a jobs report that showed employment growth slowed in July and that far fewer jobs had been added in prior months than initially estimated. The unemployment rate rose.

Musalem said he still felt there was a risk the Trump administration's new import tariffs could lead to persistent inflation, but that the Fed now had to guard against an employment slowdown as well - a difficult situation for central bankers whose efforts to loosen or constrain the flow of credit in the economy can influence inflation and employment in opposing ways.

"It is likely that most of the impact of tariffs on inflation will be short lived and will fade...But there's a reasonable probability that there may be some persistence," Musalem said. "The labor market right now looks good," he said, but added that "growth has been lower than potential for the first half of the year, and is expected to continue along those lines for the second half of the year, and that poses risks to the labor market."

Which will lead to an interesting situation. When the Fed makes its next call, they're going to use honest numbers - and ignore what is scribbled in Sharpie on Trump's charts. I don't think they'll forget what Trump did at BLS, and quite frankly, even if they believed Trump, "jobs are yuge bigly great!" means there's no rate cut.

It's not the reported numbers that are the problem. It's not the head of BLS, or Powell, or the cameras being on. It's Trump destroying the economy.

Trump responded to this by ordering federal agencies to purge all their COVID vaccination records.

"What benefit does he get by losing old data? He could just say the vaccine is no longer required."

He's being petty. COVID was his mess, he made it worse, and he wants to revise history. If there was a policy that required people to be vaccinated or they'd, you know, get sick and die, people would remember how badly he fucked up the response. Basically, he's pardoning COVID like it was a white nationalist terrorist or child sex trafficker.

- - - Updated - - -

CBS News reports that, as we all predicted, the FDA is writing up plans to shut down routine food safety inspections.

"Whoa whoa whoa! That article says the WH denies it!"

In public, yes, the people who refuse to say bad things about Trump denied it. Meanwhile, a slew of FDA employees told CBS anonymously. Anyone, especially a source CBS News trusts, is more credible than proven liar Trump, or people who say what proven liar Trump says or they get fired.

Now, CBS News does say that Congress might have to authorize the shutdown, because the FDA costs money. I'm curious to see which GOP members put their vote to dismantle food health and safety in public on purpose. Or, maybe Trump will just fire everyone who works there, SCOTUS apparently said he could.

I'm sure there's a benefit to making poor people sick from eating rotten food, then cutting their health benefits, but I can't think of it. Hey @Edge- can you think of the point?

- - - Updated - - -

The WSJ reports Team Trump is drawing up plans to sell off Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac stocks.

"I seem to remember the USA taking those in 2008 because mortgage-backed securities fueled W's recession."

Yes, and real-estate salesman Trump wants those restrictions lifted. He tried to privatize it his first term, too.

"And he wants to do this during a recession?"

A recession his policies are directly causing, yes.

"What effect would this have?"

Well, being run solely for profit and not to stabilize the market, costs of the average market would probably rise $1800 to $2800.

"I guess that's not too bad, overall."

Per year.

"But surely this is okay because new home sales are increasing and prices are falling, right?"

U.S. Homes Are Not Selling, and Prices Continue to Rise (July 23)

"Well..at least wages are rising by the same amount to compensate."

Wages grew 0.8% faster than inflation as of July 31, and inflation is demonstrably rising so this is a generous assessment. However, the average mortgage per month of a new home purchased in July would be $2,273, or $27,276 per year. Even the low end, $1800, of the increase is far more than 0.8%, and the high end is just over 10%. So, no, they're not.

3 housing-market warning signs that economists are monitoring

Also from July.

Inventory is piling up and sales volume has plunged, and the slowdown in what is a key pillar of the economy has some forecasters worried.

Existing home sales dropped 0.7% year-over-year in May. That came after a particularly sluggish April, with homes making their way off the market at the slowest pace in 16 years, according to the National Association of Realtors. The situation is worse for new home sales, which dropped almost 14% in May.

The drop in activity is raising alarms, and while most economists don't expect the US to tip into a full-blown recession in the near or medium term, a stagnating housing market has ramifications for the wider economy.

"Housing is the quintessential leading indicator. And it's not just about volumes," David Rosenberg, a top economist and the CEO of Rosenberg Research, told Business Insider.

"If the housing market falls a long way, we will obviously get much lower transactions. That's less activity for realtors and real estate agents. You tend to then also see quite big pullbacks in new construction and construction employment as well," Oliver Allen, a senior US economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, told [Business Insider].

Here are the warning signs that three economists said they're watching for.

1. A 5% drop in home prices

2. A drop in housing investment

3. Impacts on the labor market

Yeah, that last one hits kind of hard in recent events, huh? Just to clarify, those are signs the housing market is looking for, not those happening right now. If those three happen, the housing market's in trouble, maybe even 2008-level trouble. We've seen #3. #2 isn't happening yet, but JPMorgan has already said we've hit a plateau. And various sources I saw suggested some markets are seeing prices fall, but the NYTimes article cited earlier talks about national averages. In other words, one "yes" vote and two "not yet" votes.

Trump's move is not to help people looking for new homes, not by directly making costs higher. This is far more reasonably attributed to him trying to make things better for banks, possibly because he himself has a bunch of loans due and needs to stall for time. The only "good" news is mortgages are contracts, so even a 100% privatization of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac won't affect existing mortgages. Of course, if you want to refinance, you'd be fucked - not only should you expect higher prices, you should expect lesser lender eagerness, because with inflation and unemployment on the rise, banks will be a lot more cautious about who they lend to.

[Mayhem]

Yeah, that last one hits kind of hard in recent events, huh? Just to clarify, those are signs the housing market is looking for, not those happening right now. If those three happen, the housing market's in trouble, maybe even 2008-level trouble. We've seen #3. #2 isn't happening yet, but JPMorgan has already said we've hit a plateau. And various sources I saw suggested some markets are seeing prices fall, but the NYTimes article cited earlier talks about national averages. In other words, one "yes" vote and two "not yet" votes.

Trump's move is not to help people looking for new homes, not by directly making costs higher. This is far more reasonably attributed to him trying to make things better for banks, possibly because he himself has a bunch of loans due and needs to stall for time. The only "good" news is mortgages are contracts, so even a 100% privatization of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac won't affect existing mortgages. Of course, if you want to refinance, you'd be fucked - not only should you expect higher prices, you should expect lesser lender eagerness, because with inflation and unemployment on the rise, banks will be a lot more cautious about who they lend to.

Doesn't a slower turnover rate on the real estate market also indicate a slowdown in job growth?

[Breccia]

Doesn't a slower turnover rate on the real estate market also indicate a slowdown in job growth?

Those sources I quoted suggest that, yes, a slowdown in the job market becomes a slowdown for the real estate market.

Trump, of course, is handling this issue the only way he knows how: he went golfing again.

[SAY HER NAME]

Yeah we are deffo heading into recession thanks to Trumponomics

If you have a job stick to it with all your might cuz there might not be another waiting for you. Also time to start saving for an emergency fund and cut on some spending just in case.

[Draco-Onis]

Those sources I quoted suggest that, yes, a slowdown in the job market becomes a slowdown for the real estate market.

Trump, of course, is handling this issue the only way he knows how: he went golfing again.

Don't worry that RFK Jr. cure all vaccine is going to make us trillions no quintillions of dollars.

[Breccia]

It seems Zelensky has some thoughts about the land swap.

Ukrainians will not gift their land to the occupier.

Any decisions made against us, any decisions made without Ukraine, are at the same time decisions against peace. They will bring nothing. These are dead decisions; they will never work.

You know, a while ago, while looking into logical fallacies for work, I found a description of "middle ground" or "appeal to moderation" or whatever you call "if there is disagreement, then the real answer must be between the two". The description was "I want you to give me your house. You want to keep your house. Therefore, we should split the difference, and you should give me half your house." Wish I knew where so I could link it. I remember thinking "Yep, the absurdity of something like that, which would never happen in real life, really gets the point across."

And yet, here we are.

The gall of Trump, who thinks he deserves multiple Nobel Peace Prizes (the other for economics for using tariffs to fuck up everything) to host a meeting on what parts of Ukraine Putin could take, without Ukraine being there.

And, throwing this out there too, if anyone tries "Putin just wants the land that used to belong to Russia" I will remind them "Alaska used to belong to Russia". So unless Trump gives Alaska to Putin, that argument is invalid.

[alach]

Can we reach some middle ground and put this in the russia thread, pretty please?

(small ask, can we keep the russia stuff here. its just easier to find. trump gets a lot of other attention.)

https://www.mmo-champion.com/threads...0#post54732090

[gondrin]

It seems Zelensky has some thoughts about the land swap.



You know, a while ago, while looking into logical fallacies for work, I found a description of "middle ground" or "appeal to moderation" or whatever you call "if there is disagreement, then the real answer must be between the two". The description was "I want you to give me your house. You want to keep your house. Therefore, we should split the difference, and you should give me half your house." Wish I knew where so I could link it. I remember thinking "Yep, the absurdity of something like that, which would never happen in real life, really gets the point across."

And yet, here we are.

The gall of Trump, who thinks he deserves multiple Nobel Peace Prizes (the other for economics for using tariffs to fuck up everything) to host a meeting on what parts of Ukraine Putin could take, without Ukraine being there.

And, throwing this out there too, if anyone tries "Putin just wants the land that used to belong to Russia" I will remind them "Alaska used to belong to Russia". So unless Trump gives Alaska to Putin, that argument is invalid.

Honestly, as I say this as an American, if I were Zelensky, I would say "I will give up that land the moment Trump turns over Alaska and Texas to Russia. I would happily do so.".

Lets see what happens then. See if Putin starts to push for that because Alaska was once Russian and figure might as well add Texas into it just for the hell of it.

[Breccia]

Honestly, as I say this as an American, if I were Zelensky, I would say "I will give up that land the moment Trump turns over Alaska and Texas to Russia. I would happily do so.".

Okay, hey, whoa. Too far.

Texas goes back to Mexico, thank you very much.

[Templar 331]

Honestly, as I say this as an American, if I were Zelensky, I would say "I will give up that land the moment Trump turns over Alaska and Texas to Russia. I would happily do so.".

Lets see what happens then. See if Putin starts to push for that because Alaska was once Russian and figure might as well add Texas into it just for the hell of it.

Why do you think they're heading to Alaska for negotiations? Trump wants to show Putty what he's being gifted.

[Paranoid Android]

A little late on this but...



Alright I just believed this was a CEO bowing to a fascist autocrat as most corporations. But oh no!

Apple just got a big win in Trump’s tariff war. It may have bigger concerns

The White House on Wednesday ratcheted tariffs on Indian imports up by an additional 25%, raising the total levies on one of the United States’ most crucial trading partners to 50% when they kick in later this month.

But smartphones are exempt from President Donald Trump’s new levies on India, marking a crucial win for the tech giant as it approaches its most important time of the year: its annual September iPhone launch followed by the holiday season. Apple will also dodge incoming new tariffs on semiconductors, since it’s committed to building iPhone components in the United States, Trump said Wednesday.

What do you know. Give this guy some gold and he exempt's you from billions of costs to your corporate bottom line. Now Trump used the excuse of $500 billion investment. Didn’t Apple promise something like this in Trump’s first term? Yes he did promise in Trump first plan.

[Poopymonster]

Okay, hey, whoa. Too far.

Texas goes back to Mexico, thank you very much.

Can we give Michigan to Canada?
Please?

[Captain N]

I see we've reached the part of the kleptocracy where open bribes are accepted.

[Iphie]

I see we've reached the part of the kleptocracy where open bribes are accepted.

The US, Russia, different sides of the same coin, what a time to be alive.

[En Sabah Nur]

A president for everyone!

[Mayhem]

A little late on this but...



Alright I just believed this was a CEO bowing to a fascist autocrat as most corporations. But oh no!

Apple just got a big win in Trump’s tariff war. It may have bigger concerns



What do you know. Give this guy some gold and he exempt's you from billions of costs to your corporate bottom line. Now Trump used the excuse of $500 billion investment. Didn’t Apple promise something like this in Trump’s first term? Yes he did promise in Trump first plan.

Why would Trump grant exceptions to the tariffs when foreign countries pay them?

Also, that gold base was suspiciously light when Tim Apple ikeaed it.

[Captain N]

A president for everyone!

So what is your take on what he'll do to the homeless? Ship them off to Alligator Alcatraz? Ship them off to El Salvador? Or just make them disappear completely since killing poor people seems to be what his Cult wants anyways?

[Poopymonster]

So what is your take on what he'll do to the homeless? Ship them off to Alligator Alcatraz? Ship them off to El Salvador? Or just make them disappear completely since killing poor people seems to be what his Cult wants anyways?

Send em to blue cities.
Then send in his brown shirts to "stop crime."
THEN gator bait them.

[En Sabah Nur]

So what is your take on what he'll do to the homeless? Ship them off to Alligator Alcatraz? Ship them off to El Salvador? Or just make them disappear completely since killing poor people seems to be what his Cult wants anyways?

Oh, they'll absolutely send them to any Democrat-held state. And I'm sure a few will end up dead in the process.