Mega-Thread: Trump Focused Discussion

[Breccia]

I'm going to challenge this statement. Because Trump looks as bloated as a whale carcass that is about to explode.

And would smell likely the same as a whale carcass that did explode.

I mean, it's too easy to compare Trump to a dying shell around natural gas. I'll cede this point.

Unrelated: Just to be clear about job numbers: I went to bls.gov and found every single jobs by month since 1971, and compared the months to each other.

Then I did it again after removing 2020 because Trump lost so many jobs in April of 2020 that it made the month of April, since 1971, negative. That's how many jobs Donald Trump cost America, in one month: enough to ruin that month for over fifty years.

With 2020 removed, I looked to see if some months were statistically higher/lower job numbers than others.

And...huh, funny story: of the remaining years, August statistically has the lowest average jobs created, and also, has the lowest spread in jobs created. It's usually fairly low. Honestly, 22k jobs isn't all that low, statistically speaking, for an August past 1970.

...but that means June isn't. Trump has had a bad year, but also had a bad summer. His May, his June, and now his August are each significantly below the listed average, by that month's context. July's just slightly below average.

This is where we get into probability. Rolling a die and getting a 1 or 2 isn't that bad. One chance in three, 33.3333 (repeating of course) percent. Hardly unusual.

Rolling the same die four times and only getting 1's and 2's is. The chance of rolling four dice, and having three of those four be 1's and/or 2's, is under 10% chance. This is significantly more rare, but not "guilty beyond all reasonable doubt" just yet.

But of course it gets worse. Trump has had below-average job growth (a lot or a little) every month of his term so far except April, which was slightly above average.

What is the probability that, if you roll 8 dice, you get seven 1-3's and a single 4+? Three point one percent. This is where "beyond reasonable doubt" starts to kick in.

Trump is demonstrably bad at job creation. The results he's getting are harder and harder to blame on coincidence or random chance, and there are too many non-Trump sources aligned with the listed numbers to blame the Democrats for lying, either. Simply put, what Trump is doing isn't working, and he keeps doing it.

Have I ever told you about the def-

"Your numbers are disingenuous."

You again!

"Citing jobs in Nixon and Ford terms doesn't apply to modern times at all. So many things changed, not the least of which was population and major revisions of workers rights in manufacturing jobs. As useful as a large data set is, context is even more important. It would be like asking senior citizens about which movies they streamed when they were teenagers. Redo all of that but use 2010+, when the Great Recession was more or less calmed down. This will use a more modern comparison."

Okay, fine. Recalculating and...holy shit, they just got much worse. Trump just lost April. Now, every single month is below average, and by a much more significant margin. Basically, he rolled eight dice and got three 1's (May, June, August) one 3 (July, oddly enough) and the rest are 2's.

The likelihood of rolling eight dice, and getting only 1-3's, is zero-point-four percent. There is a sub-one-percent chance that Trump got all these bad numbers by sheer random chance.

But when you factor in just how bad May, June, and August were? The odds of rolling eight dice, and getting three one's and five 2-3's (this is being generous to Trump) is zero point one percent. The chance that job numbers are this bad, by sheer random chance, is about one in one thousand.

The only defense of Trump at this point is to claim that job numbers mean nothing, in which case, such people would also need to point out the many times Trump has talked about job numbers and also say "therefore Trump is wrong to talk about job numbers". Which, of course, they'll never do.

This is why our Trump supporters have gone silent. There is no defense. They'd rather have people like me saying "Trump is killing the job market with his own words and actions" than even attempt a defense, because objectively none exists.

"Well maybe you're doing the analysis wrong! Do Biden! Surely he's just as bad!"

Okay, sure.

(runs numbers)

Biden never had eight straight months of below-average results. He has already outpaced Trump. He had 30/48 months of above-average job growth. Now, that's a little unfair, 2021 was filled with recovery, but removing that entire year, Biden still had 18/36 months of above-average job growth, literally 50/50, which is what you'd expect to see at random, because that's what "average" means. Trump, by contrast, has zero months of above-average job growth (by the post-2009 metric).

Also, Biden never had any job losses, so, there's that.

"I meant, compare Biden's worst year ever to Trump!"

Okay, at this point you're asking if Batman can beat Superman without prep time or kryptonite, but sure, fine, whatever. Biden's lowest year was 2024. Proportionally speaking, for every month Biden had, Trump had one that was worse. Biden's proportionately worst month of 2024 was April, but Trump's May was worse. Biden's August was low, but Trump's August was worse.

If you line up Biden's job numbers in ascending order, and Trump's, each and every one of Biden's is still better than each and every one of Trump's. At least they do, until Biden runs out of below-average months and uses above-average months...which Trump does not have.

And proportionately, the gap widens. Biden's 2024 Feb/March/May were only slightly proportionately below average. Trump has none of those, either.

"Didn't you say in 2017 that Trump doesn't get credit for 2017? That it was Obama's policies, rolling over?"

I did, yes.

"Doesn't that mean Biden owns 2025?"

Trump put on high illegal tariffs immediately this time, killing the GDP and stock market, so no. Sorry. I don't make the rules. I'm just enforcing them. If Trump didn't want to fuck the jobs numbers, he shouldn't have stuck his dick in them.

There is no measure by which Trump is doing well by jobs. Add that to the economy, the dollar, world stability, the rule of law, and of course fidelity to his wives and raping children.

[Draco-Onis]

Conservative policies in action. I'd say this 4 years will be a wakeup call to America but in 8 years they will forget that conservatives ruin the economy every time they get power.

The limp impotent spineless democratic party are beholden to their corporate masters and need that to happen so that they can excuse just maintaining the status quo. If we had a left wing they would implement policies that would guarantee that the republican party would never hold power ever again.

It's kabuki theatre and we're the joke as things continue to get worse.

- - - Updated - - -

The fact that Modi is cozying up to China, the country that India is fighting over border dispute, is a testament to the failure of Trump's foreign policy.

I don't know what you are talking about Trump is bringing people together, he is throwing the entire world into the loving arms of China. Xi is signing more trade and co-operation deals than a celebrity at a meet.

[Gorsameth]

The limp impotent spineless democratic party are beholden to their corporate masters and need that to happen so that they can excuse just maintaining the status quo. If we had a left wing they would implement policies that would guarantee that the republican party would never hold power ever again.

It's kabuki theatre and we're the joke as things continue to get worse.

Your over estimating the American voter. Remember this is a country where poor people protest that they will be given adequate healthcare they would keep an injury for ruining the rest of their life.

[gondrin]

I am just going to put this here.

During the Congressional Hearing with RFK Jr., Senator Warren flat out asked Kennedy:

Did you tell the head of the CDC that if she refused to sign off on your changes to your changes to the childhood vaccine schedule that she had to resign?

Which he replied:

No. I told her she had to resign because I asked her "Are you a trustworthy person?" and she said "No."

Clip starts at the part Warren is asking RFK Jr.

[Breccia]

No. I told her she had to resign because I asked her "Are you a trustworthy person?" and she said "No."

I dismiss Kennedy's answer as an objective falsehood. Nobody would ever say that.

[gondrin]

I dismiss Kennedy's answer as an objective falsehood. Nobody would ever say that.

That is why it is so absurd. It would be like Trump saying Trump is a liar. You know it will never happen.

Because, you know, the first thing I ask people that aren't Trump is "Are you a trustworthy person?". That is what only the sane people do. /s

[Kathandira]

I dismiss Kennedy's answer as an objective falsehood. Nobody would ever say that.

Same, I have very reasonable doubts.

[DarkTZeratul]

I swear to god, the leaded gasoline fumes from the 50s-70s made an entire generation of Americans lose their everfucking minds.

There is, in fact, circumstantial evidence that this is entirely the case.

[Draco-Onis]

Your over estimating the American voter. Remember this is a country where poor people protest that they will be given adequate healthcare they would keep an injury for ruining the rest of their life.

There is about 25-28% of the US who are a lost cause they would vote for Satan if he had an R next to his name, everyone else is fair game. The democratic base are basically hostages since there is no alternative swing voters are just raging every election. If we had the leadership that fights and policies that materially changes things republicans would never win. The president that gives Americans free healthcare, affordable housing has this country on lock. Heck if Trump did things like that he would be made dictator with very little oppostion.

[TACOshake]

Please, ya'll need to time travel back to 2016 and yell at Joe ROgan and his fans. All of his fans on the right and left.


New details released about the plans for UFC cage match on the White House south lawn:


I wonder what the world will look like in June 2026? Considering current popularity trajectory, look at the economic trajectory, and then look at the calendar for midterms...

[Mayhem]

I swear to god, the leaded gasoline fumes from the 50s-70s made an entire generation of Americans lose their everfucking minds.

For anyone asking themselves what the fuck, leaded gasoline fumes, hu?

Here's the respective study.

“We estimate that at least 151 million cases of diagnosable mental disorder that the population would have experienced over the last 75 years could be attributable to lead,” said Aaron Reuben, a new assistant professor of psychology at UVA and a study co-author. The cases, he said, “would not have existed were it not for the addition of lead to gasoline,” ostensibly to improve engine performance.

“If you look at the current population, Generation X likely had the highest exposures, en masse, of any U.S. generation.”

The study found people born during the era of leaded gasoline are expected to have experienced in their lives “a greater risk for attention deficit hyperactivity disorder, greater risk for psychosis and thought disorders, greater risk for externalizing conditions like antisocial behavior, and internalizing conditions like anxiety, depression,” Reuben said.

article

[Casterbridge]

I don't know what you are talking about Trump is bringing people together, he is throwing the entire world into the loving arms of China. Xi is signing more trade and co-operation deals than a celebrity at a meet.

I'll be honest I thought this was going to happen with some of the stunts Trump pulled the first time around - it seems this time China is really taking advantage...perhaps we've had it wrong all along on who owns Trump

[Edge-]

Please, ya'll need to time travel back to 2016 and yell at Joe ROgan and his fans. All of his fans on the right and left.


New details released about the plans for UFC cage match on the White House south lawn:


I wonder what the world will look like in June 2026? Considering current popularity trajectory, look at the economic trajectory, and then look at the calendar for midterms...

we're so fucking close to idiocracy

[Endus]

we're so fucking close to idiocracy

You zoomed way past idiocracy. Idiocracy, people were just stupid. They weren't evil or abusive or mean. President Camacho couldn't figure out how to save the crops, but was willing to listen to people smarter than he was who thought they'd figured out how to fix it, especially once they demonstrated their idea worked.

President Camacho was a better President than Donald Trump, and it isn't even a close running. I'd rather live in Idiocracy's world than the modern USA. Everyone around me might be an idiot, but they're nice idiots. I'd take a neighbourhood surrounded by those kinds of idiots than MAGA-hat-wearing Nazi dorks any day.

[Gabriel]

POSIWID. The purpose of a system is what it does.

This isn't an accident or a mistake. This is exactly what conservativism is about, as an ideological system. If you're stupid and gullible enough to fall for bullshit propaganda that claims otherwise, that's on you for being an idiot. If you insist on those lies when presented with the reality (repeatedly, no less), you're a cultist who has serious mental health issues causing you to have a mental break from reality.

America doesn't need a wakeup call, it needs an intervention and for someone to slap the soft cuffs on to keep them from hurting themselves.

I swear to god, the leaded gasoline fumes from the 50s-70s made an entire generation of Americans lose their everfucking minds.

It probably made them dumber, but Trump voters aren't just dumb, they're actively malicious.

I refuse to believe anyone could actually be dumb enough to think Trump and the conservatives are trying to do anything good for anyone except themselves, and if they truly are that dumb, then they should unironically be placed under conservatorship.

[Paranoid Android]

we're so fucking close to idiocracy

You zoomed way past idiocracy. Idiocracy, people were just stupid. They weren't evil or abusive or mean. President Camacho couldn't figure out how to save the crops, but was willing to listen to people smarter than he was who thought they'd figured out how to fix it, especially once they demonstrated their idea worked.

President Camacho was a better President than Donald Trump, and it isn't even a close running. I'd rather live in Idiocracy's world than the modern USA. Everyone around me might be an idiot, but they're nice idiots. I'd take a neighbourhood surrounded by those kinds of idiots than MAGA-hat-wearing Nazi dorks any day.

We are in our "Bread and Circuses" or "Bread and Games" phase. Idk where the bread is coming from. We used to have cheap, processed food to keep Americans in their place. We always had the games or distraction this is really is just next level. Gladiator Games!

[Gabriel]

We are in our "Bread and Circuses" or "Bread and Games" phase. Idk where the bread is coming from. We used to have cheap, processed food to keep Americans in their place. We always had the games or distraction this is really is just next level. Gladiator Games!

Patriot Games*

[Kaleredar]

We are in our "Bread and Circuses" or "Bread and Games" phase. Idk where the bread is coming from. We used to have cheap, processed food to keep Americans in their place. We always had the games or distraction this is really is just next level. Gladiator Games!

This is where trump is failing, ultimately. Because Trump isn’t “appeasing the masses.” The whole “well at least the trains ran on time” justification for authoritarianism doesn’t work when… the trains still don’t run on time. Trump is offering most Americans nothing, and is in fact actively taking from them.

Case in point, nobody is going to care about this UFC fight. Any more than people care about his military parades or rallies. Trump isn’t giving most of the people that voted for him what they errantly thought he’d give them: economic stability.

Now, any intelligent person would know he was never going to give them that, but they stupidly believed him. And a mere seven months into his presidency he’s already cratered every American economic metric. Obviously. Directly. Publicly. Even if he cared about fixing it (he doesn’t) he completely lacks the ability to.

He’s putting on a circus nobody is going to see while telling them the bread is more expensive than ever.

[Breccia]

He’s putting on a circus nobody is going to see while telling them the bread is more expensive than ever.

I don't normally correct typos openly, but you said Trump would tell them bread is more expensive. You meant to type Trump would tell them bread was down 400% while it was actually more expensive.

@Paranoid Android has a point, Trump can't even distract properly from the problems of his own creation. Imagine someone who was born in wealth from a German family, has lived nearly every single year, and been accepted to high-quality schools, having literally every available resource to study what Hitler did and...still being wrong by this much.

[Gorsameth]

Ideocracy was once a comedy, then it became a warning, a documentary, and now a hopeful vision for a better tomorrow.

Fuck I hate this timeline.