Trump’s immigration crackdown is resulting in the U.S. population growth shrinking faster than anticipated, according to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO)—a phenomenon economists have warned will lead to a labor shortage, drive up inflation, and, under some circumstances, shrink U.S. GDP growth.
The nonpartisan budgetary agency published a revised demographic outlook on Wednesday, projecting death will exceed births in the U.S. beginning in 2031, two years earlier than it previously projected, as a result of a diminished immigrant population as well as lower fertility rates.
The CBO attributed the revisions in large part to Trump’s 2025 reconciliation act, or “One Big Beautiful Bill,” which provides a total of $170 billion for immigration and border enforcement, including a lump sum of $29.9 billion to U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) operations and the hiring of 10,000 ICE officers.
About 290,000 immigrants will be removed from the country between 2026 and 2029 as a result of the law, the CBO said, and about 50,000 immigrants will be detained per day in the same period. An increase in ICE personnel will lead to 5,500 more arrests in 2026 and 100,000 more in 2029 than if the policy had not been enacted. Another 30,000 are projected to leave voluntarily between 2026 and 2030.
This crackdown will have a direct effect on labor, according to the agency.
“CBO estimates that the additional detentions resulting from the law will have two effects,” the report said. “First, people who are detained will not be available to work and will therefore not be in the labor force. Second, detention increases the likelihood that immigrants who receive an order of removal will be successfully removed.”
The White House did not immediately respond to Fortune’s request for comment.