So in October, I said that there was no certainty of moving.
And that was indeed correct. I said it’s possible you could think about it that way, but I was
careful to say other people could look at it differently. So why did we move today? You know, I
would say—point to a couple of things. First of all, gradual cooling in the labor market has
continued. Unemployment is now up three-tenths from June through September.
Payroll jobs
averaging 40,000 per month since April. We think there’s an overstatement in these numbers by
about 60,000, so that would be negative 20,000 per month. And also, just to point out one other
thing, surveys of households and businesses both showed declining supply and demand for
workers, so I think you can say that the labor market has continued to cool gradually, maybe just
a touch more gradually than we thought.