Mega-Thread: Trump Focused Discussion

[Breccia]

This CNBC article goes into detail about a looming future problem: Trump and the Fed. Yes, some of it is about how Trump is watering the Fed down with unqualified people and also blaming them when the consequences of his words and actions hit.

But there's more.

See, as we've discussed before, Trump has demanded the Fed handle rates the way he says to, and to use quantitative easing, just to keep the economy where it is -- a nearly Obama-like growth. The Fed is running out of options. But it's not burning its options to block a recession. It's burning its options on keeping Trump from looking bad.

We're 10 years into the post-recession recovery. These things come and go. Problem is, if they come now -- and we've seen plenty of economic forecasts saying a dip (maybe recession) is on the way in the next 2 years -- we're out of tools to use. The Fed's ability to magically create credit has limits.

Recent developments in the ongoing drama between Trump and the Federal Reserve have been anything but encouraging. Although Powell vowed to remain apolitical, the FOMC reversed course at its March meeting, implying that they were done with rate hikes for the foreseeable future and ending their balance sheet reduction later this year.

This week, St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard proclaimed that the Fed’s normalization process was at an end. Trump, emboldened by seemingly being able to dictate monetary policy, is now calling for the Fed to expand its balance sheet with another round of quantitative easing. Larry Kudlow, his National Economic Council Director, said he would like to see a rate cut of 50 basis points.

Both steps are unheard of outside of a drastic economic downturn. Kudlow was quoted as saying interest rates may never go up again in his lifetime. Such overt statements regarding monetary policy from the White House are reckless and irresponsible.

The Federal Reserve is now at a crossroads. Political pressure and some signs of a slowing economy have changed the course of Fed policy. Had the Fed been more aggressive in normalizing rates in the aftermath of the Great Recession, as recommended by policy rules such as the “Taylor Rule” that sets the funds rate according to the inflation and output gap, taking a pause at this point would make more sense.

Economists have long argued that monetary policy performs best when following rules rather than discretion. The stagflation of the 1970s versus the low inflation of the following decades is a perfect example.

The Federal Open Market Committee is walking a fine line by stressing that their policy is now data dependent. Of course, the implementation of a well-defined and transparent policy rule requires data. However, data dependency can also be interpreted as a total abandonment of rules in favor of “making up policy as you go.”

Ending policy normalization when the fed funds rate of 2.5% is still historically low and has a nearly $4 trillion balance sheet leaves the Federal Reserve and the economy in a precarious position.

Should inflation drift above the FOMC’s objective, it may require the type of drastic rate hikes that could cause an economic recession. And should the predicted economic slowdown lead to recession, the Fed will have very little ammunition for easing monetary policy by lowering rates or expanding their balance sheet.

[Amalaric]

Donald J. Trump will crush the Democrat presidential candidates come 2020... all twelve of them.

[Paranoid Android]

President Trump on Monday sued House Oversight and Reform Committee Chairman Elijah Cummings to block a subpoena of the president's financial records from an accounting firm https://t.co/rF9pXMyfEs

https://twitter.com/politico/status/...767894528?s=19

Let's see what Trump is covering up. Is he so corrupt and perhaps incompetent that his books show criminal activities; possibly . Is he perhaps not as rich as he brag; very possible.

[Somewhatconcerned]

https://twitter.com/politico/status/...767894528?s=19

Let's see what Trump is covering up. Is he so corrupt and perhaps incompetent that his books show criminal activities; possibly . Is he perhaps not as rich as he brag; very possible.

It's probably just an ego thing, he doesn't want people to know his true net worth. Not like it matters, he's still President and it won't sway his base anyhow.

[Breccia]

It's probably just an ego thing

Not really.

Name one qualification Trump had for office other than "I am a successful businessman".

Now remove that sole qualification. That's in addition to, of course, his inability to fulfill his promises and lack of useful results (see previous post).

Trump is desperate to hide the fact that he lied on the biggest resume in the world.

[Breccia]

and started selling his name.

Which people are now scraping off their buildings, and kicking Trump employees out of.

On topic: I've mentioned repeatedly that one of the few things that the GOP can do now, is to 100% lock-step with Trump and hope for a miracle -- such as war with Iran.

Two steps were taken towards that goal recently.

One: Trump accused John Kerry of violating the Logan Act for giving Iran "very bad advice".

"What's the Logan Act?"

Only Hugh Jackman can play Wolverine.

"Har har. What's the actual Logan Act?"

Elected officials, and those appointed by elected officials, are allowed to negotiate with the full force of the US Govt. People who aren't elected officials aren't allowed to do that.

"It sounds familiar."

It should. Flynn violated the Logan Act by talking to Russia to make deals before the inauguration. He was later fired for lying about it, because he knew what he did was wrong. Oddly enough, he told Trump but not Pence...but I digress.

So, yes, Trump is claiming Kerry is breaking the law he himself had broken.

Two: Trump just ended waivers on countries buying oil from Iran without sanctions. Those countries include China, Japan, and South Korea. These countries have until May 3 to either stop importing Iranian oil, or face US sanctions.

Yes, this is part of ending the Iran Nuclear Deal. Despite Iran upholding the terms, Trump is going to penalize the countries that didn't withdraw. Incidentally the result will almost certainly spike oil prices.

Naturally, Trump suggested getting oil from Saudi Arabia. Yep, he's still doing that.

[Somewhatconcerned]

Not really.

Name one qualification Trump had for office other than "I am a successful businessman".

Now remove that sole qualification. That's in addition to, of course, his inability to fulfill his promises and lack of useful results (see previous post).

Trump is desperate to hide the fact that he lied on the biggest resume in the world.

You don't think the IRS or the government has seen his tax return? You'd think if there was some big smoking gun on his return (btw, why would he put something like that in plain sight), it would have sunk him by now.

But by all means, keep looking for ghosts.

[Breccia]

You don't think the IRS or the government has seen his tax return?

Well first of all, Trump claims he's been under audit since 2001, so, yes. Yes I do. Why don't you? Trump said there was a problem personally. Are you saying you don't believe Trump?

But more importantly, being poor is not illegal. Trump claims to be rich and successful. His tax returns would prove or disprove that. He has chosen to hide them, to the point of suing to keep them hidden even after it was found he used his business to commit a felony (campaign donation violations) so there is obvious cause.

If Trump was rich and successful, he could prove that very easily. He has not. He is instead asking people, like you, to take his word for it, despite multiple bankruptcies and experts left and right (his own biographer whom he hired included) disputing the claims.

And, again, it was his sole qualification. If he doesn't have it, it's yet another lie he's been telling exposed.

We don't need to know if Trump lied on his taxes -- granted, it would be nice to know if he's a criminal for that, too, but that's not the point. It would be nice to know if he's as successful as he claims, and it would be nice to know if there are hostile foreign influences -- such as admitted Russian money launderer Deutsche Bank -- who have any play on the field. Trump is the only person since Nixon who ran under the banner of "I am rich and successful" and the only person since Nixon to block any attempt to see if that's true. And he's told thousands of objective lies about everything else, including "I have no business deals with Russians".

But, nice try at moving the goalposts.

[PosPosPos]

You don't think the IRS or the government has seen his tax return? You'd think if there was some big smoking gun on his return (btw, why would he put something like that in plain sight), it would have sunk him by now.

But by all means, keep looking for ghosts.

I mean, both of you are actually agreeing with each other, but it's like flying over both of your heads now.

[Breccia]

Trump has demanded the Fed handle rates the way he says to, and to use quantitative easing, just to keep the economy where it is -- a nearly Obama-like growth. The Fed is running out of options.

Addendum.

The free market is not waiting for the Fed, who is still listening to Trump, and are raising rates all on their own. In addition, total US payments to credit cart interest is increasing at double to triple the rate the GDP is rising, suggesting the ratio moving from ownership towards debt -- a bad ratio to move in the economy.

[Breccia]

I mean, both of you are actually agreeing with each other

Only if concerned admits that Trump could be poor, and hiding it. Otherwise he's just deflecting.

[Paranoid Android]

Giuliani is gold.

Analysis: Giuliani says there’s nothing wrong with getting dirt from Russians. The law says there can be. https://t.co/arpmGxcdLQ

His great claim is technically there is no law against it. That he (Giuliani) would have advised against it to Trump.

[Breccia]

His great claim is technically there is no law against it

Yeah, Giulliani also deflected with "we can't prosecute for morality". Which...was fucking stupid. He flat-out admitted what Trump did was a really bad idea.

[PosPosPos]

Only if concerned admits that Trump could be poor, and hiding it. Otherwise he's just deflecting.

...?

It's probably just an ego thing, he doesn't want people to know his true net worth. Not like it matters, he's still President and it won't sway his base anyhow.

"It's probably just an ego thing, he doesn't want people to know his true net worth." is exactly what you are looking for.

Rephrased: Trump is probably hiding his lower-than-reported finances because he wants to protect his ego.

[Paranoid Android]

We already knew he wasn't a successful businessman. His actual businesses weren't profitable which is why daddy had to constantly bail him out. He only became somewhat successful when he moved from business to branding and started selling his name.

Yes.

Enough rubes watched The Apprentice and his media clippings to believe this. Which we file under 'Effin Ironic' that people who hate the coastal elites, Hollywood types and influenced by Fake News media believed this guy.

[Breccia]

Trump breaks another record. Most measles cases since 2000.



"Whoa whoa whoa! 2014 was higher! That's disingenuous posting! Also thanks Obama!"

2014 is over. It's not even May 2019. In order for Trump not to break the yearly record, he'd have to, say, use that lowest 2012's rate for the rest of the year -- a dramatic shift which there's no sign of happening.

More importantly, measles cases have been on the rise since Trump was elected. Obama had a spike in 2014, nearly 400 Amish (religious objections?) got infected all at once, and that's horrifying. But it's hardly indicative of Obama's words or actions. Trump, an anti-vaxxer himself, put an anti-vaxxer in his Cabinet. Then he did everything he could to gut the ACA, for which he's being sued, weakening public health care. There is no reason to view Trump's current tally as a spike. There is, instead, a reason to see them as the results of Trump's words and actions.

If outbreaks continue at this rate -- which I find unlikely, just so we're clear, at some point local officials and medical authorities will push back -- but if they did, it would be 1,872 cases and more than the total of every single year since 2001. A far more realistic prediction would be 800-900.

[rda]

^^ Mate, I thought you were acting a little irrational from the Mueller thread. It's not normal to be spending your life flooding the forums with wise-ass interpretations of media articles trying to get a one-up on Trump (or whoever really). But seriously posting the graph on effing measles and seriously talking about this being an indicator of what Trump or Obama did to the country?? You need to step away from the forums for something like half a year, and I mean that unironically. Really, you have a mania.

[Bodakane]

^^ Mate, I thought you were acting a little irrational from the Mueller thread. It's not normal to be spending your life flooding the forums with wise-ass interpretations of media articles trying to get a one-up on Trump (or whoever really). But seriously posting the graph on effing measles and seriously talking about this being an indicator of what Trump or Obama did to the country?? You need to step away from the forums for something like half a year, and I mean that unironically. Really, you have a mania.

Please stop reading one sentence and then reacting.

You've done that with the mueller investigation and you've done that in this thread.

Breccia isn;'t just willy nilly blaming Trump for things just because. He actually gives reasons, and facts, and numbers, and evidence.

For a person that sucks Trump's dong every chance you get based on nothing even remotely coming close to reason, facts, numbers or evidence, you don't really have a lot of business commenting on others.

[Breccia]

Nothing to do with people knowing he's grossly under-qualified, I'm sure.

He probably had too many pizzas to deliver.

Yes, even McConnell wasn't ready to back a pizza delivery man into the increasingly non-independent Fed. When you lose McConnell, you've lost.

Now, maybe Trump is telling the truth and Cain saw the toppings on the pizza for what they were. Maybe Trump is lying and he forced Cain out. Maybe Cain doesn't even know he's been fired yet -- we've seen that before, haven't we? But yeah, at least for now, another incompetent Trump appointee isn't getting very far.

And now @Edge- says "only the best people".

[Edge-]

Oh dear. Even the Turtle wasn't on board.

Of course he wasn't, he knows how much of a nightmare Cain or Moore would be in the FED and how neither have anything remotely approaching even the current Republican parties fiscal goals.

They're happy to re-enact the Human Centipede with Trump, but only to a point. McConnell is more powerful than Trump and he knows it, which is why for example Trumps big health care push a month ago (earlier this month?) came and went in a matter of days with a thud. Because McConnell knew it was a losing issue and wouldn't touch it, because the Trump administration couldn't find another Senate Republican to lead their efforts (not even Rick Scott), and because the administration is completely incapable of taking the lead on any legislative efforts.