1. #54541
    Quote Originally Posted by silveth View Post
    You know the funny part. With all of the things that have gone wrong this year with mail in voting attempts people still think it will work and be fine. After NY and NJ's debacles in their attempts people still think its a good idea at this point. I won't even get into the 100's of documented cases of mail in voting issues over the years (and that is without it being a thing in most states).

    I will state the statistics.

    1% of in person votes fail to be counted for whatever reason.
    2% of absentee votes fail to be counted for whatever reason. This is already a couple of million.
    In the 2 attempts at mail in voting in NY and NJ (both democrat run, in democrat districts) they had a failure rate of over 20%. This is from a city and a borrow, not even a whole state.

    But don't actually research and read things like local news or papers, listen to the democrats and the big media that everything with it is perfect.

    Funny that people are trying to accuse Trump of stealing the election before it happens when he is pushing for the same rules that apply every year and its the democrats trying to force a new way no matter how many times it proves unreliable. Even though the "Top Doctors" that the media likes say that in person can be safely just like anything else at this point with social distancing.

    It is interesting that I heard that they said they expect 80+ million votes by mail and it to be a majority for Biden. It would be funny if that 20% failure continues and the 16 million votes that won't count cause Biden to lose.

    I am all for mail in voting if it can be done securely and timely. But the facts seem to be that we don't have the time to make it work right this year.

    This is the democrats blocking the second republican "relief bill" because it was only about providing funds. The Democrat bill had lovely pieces like making voter id laws in states illegal and removing signature verification for absentee ballots.... HUH What exactly did those have to do with extending the funds for people and business in this crisis? I have no idea, but like its been said, never let a good crisis go to waste.
    I too will state the statistics.

    100% of your post is utter and complete bullshit.
    "When Facism comes to America, it will be wrapped in a flag and carrying a cross." - Unknown

  2. #54542
    Quote Originally Posted by silveth View Post
    In the 2 attempts at mail in voting in NY and NJ (both democrat run, in democrat districts) they had a failure rate of over 20%. This is from a city and a borrow, not even a whole state.

    .


    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/19/n...ing-fraud.html


    LOL maybe you should read how the 20% quickly became NOT CLOSE to 20%


    As the investigation unfolded, some conservative groups seized on the more than 3,000 ballots that were thrown out to make the case that mail-in voting makes it too easy to manipulate elections by allowing ineligible voters, including the dead, to vote.

    About 1,200 votes were disqualified because voters’ signatures did not match those on file, according to the Passaic County Board of Elections.

    In New Jersey, voters can designate someone to submit ballots on their behalf, but no one is allowed to drop off more than three during an election. As a result, an additional 1,000 votes were disqualified because a section on the ballot to list the name of the person sending them in had been left blank.

    Only three ballots were thrown out because they had been cast in the names of people who were dead, and another was rejected because of suspicions that someone might have attempted to vote twice (lol trump is pushing for his people to do this)

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...le/5493078002/

    The Passaic County Board of Elections tossed out 3,190 mail-in ballots, or about 19% of those submitted, according to Northjersey.com. Of those, 800 ballots were improperly bundled. Election workers rejected the remaining 2,300 for other concerns, including signatures on the ballots not matching the ones on file.
    Buh Byeeeeeeeeeeee !!

  3. #54543
    Quote Originally Posted by silveth View Post
    You know the funny part. With all of the things that have gone wrong this year with mail in voting attempts people still think it will work and be fine. After NY and NJ's debacles in their attempts people still think its a good idea at this point. I won't even get into the 100's of documented cases of mail in voting issues over the years (and that is without it being a thing in most states).

    I will state the statistics.

    1% of in person votes fail to be counted for whatever reason.
    2% of absentee votes fail to be counted for whatever reason. This is already a couple of million.
    In the 2 attempts at mail in voting in NY and NJ (both democrat run, in democrat districts) they had a failure rate of over 20%. This is from a city and a borrow, not even a whole state.

    But don't actually research and read things like local news or papers, listen to the democrats and the big media that everything with it is perfect.

    Funny that people are trying to accuse Trump of stealing the election before it happens when he is pushing for the same rules that apply every year and its the democrats trying to force a new way no matter how many times it proves unreliable. Even though the "Top Doctors" that the media likes say that in person can be safely just like anything else at this point with social distancing.

    It is interesting that I heard that they said they expect 80+ million votes by mail and it to be a majority for Biden. It would be funny if that 20% failure continues and the 16 million votes that won't count cause Biden to lose.

    I am all for mail in voting if it can be done securely and timely. But the facts seem to be that we don't have the time to make it work right this year.

    This is the democrats blocking the second republican "relief bill" because it was only about providing funds. The Democrat bill had lovely pieces like making voter id laws in states illegal and removing signature verification for absentee ballots.... HUH What exactly did those have to do with extending the funds for people and business in this crisis? I have no idea, but like its been said, never let a good crisis go to waste.
    Do you happen to have a source for that?

  4. #54544
    People verifying signatures aren't all handwriting experts and it's a great way to toss ballots from people that you suspect are voting for democrats.

    Even putting all of that corruption aside, people don't write exactly the same for their entire lives. They change naturally, people get injuries or other disabilities that alter their writing style, etc...

    It doesn't make any sense.

  5. #54545
    Quote Originally Posted by Blur4stuff View Post
    People verifying signatures aren't all handwriting experts and it's a great way to toss ballots from people that you suspect are voting for democrats.

    Even putting all of that corruption aside, people don't write exactly the same for their entire lives. They change naturally, people get injuries or other disabilities that alter their writing style, etc...

    It doesn't make any sense.
    I am going to take a wild wild stab and say they were not thrown out for a slightly more pronounced slant on their L's.
    It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death

  6. #54546
    Herald of the Titans D Luniz's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Blur4stuff View Post
    People verifying signatures aren't all handwriting experts and it's a great way to toss ballots from people that you suspect are voting for democrats.

    Even putting all of that corruption aside, people don't write exactly the same for their entire lives. They change naturally, people get injuries or other disabilities that alter their writing style, etc...

    It doesn't make any sense.
    my signature looks the ekg of a coma patient, so I doubt it would pass
    "Law and Order", lots of places have had that, Russia, North Korea, Saddam's Iraq.
    Laws can be made to enforce order of cruelty and brutality.
    Equality and Justice, that is how you have peace and a society that benefits all.

  7. #54547
    Quote Originally Posted by Blur4stuff View Post
    People verifying signatures aren't all handwriting experts and it's a great way to toss ballots from people that you suspect are voting for democrats.

    Even putting all of that corruption aside, people don't write exactly the same for their entire lives. They change naturally, people get injuries or other disabilities that alter their writing style, etc...

    It doesn't make any sense.
    They are disqualified by a bipartisan team of judges, usually. And they ARE specifically trained in some form of signature/handwriting recognition for the job.

    https://co.grand.co.us/DocumentCente...ication?bidId=

  8. #54548
    Void Lord Elegiac's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Benggaul View Post
    They are disqualified by a bipartisan team of judges, usually. And they ARE specifically trained in some form of signature/handwriting recognition for the job.

    https://co.grand.co.us/DocumentCente...ication?bidId=
    I think it's more a criticism of signatures as an authentication factor because they're objectively pretty shit for that purpose, if every permission slip for field trips and sick days in my school years was any evidence.
    Quote Originally Posted by Marjane Satrapi
    The world is not divided between East and West. You are American, I am Iranian, we don't know each other, but we talk and understand each other perfectly. The difference between you and your government is much bigger than the difference between you and me. And the difference between me and my government is much bigger than the difference between me and you. And our governments are very much the same.

  9. #54549
    Quote Originally Posted by D Luniz View Post
    my signature looks the ekg of a coma patient, so I doubt it would pass
    Depends entirely on consistency and how you've signed it in your most recent ballots/requests.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Elegiac View Post
    I think it's more a criticism of signatures as an authentication factor because they're objectively pretty shit for that purpose, if every permission slip for field trips and sick days in my school years was any evidence.
    Maybe, but I was mostly responding to the "it's probably used as an excuse to throw out votes for *insert party here*" and "they aren't experts" notes, because both of those are wrong.

  10. #54550
    Over 9000! PhaelixWW's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by silveth View Post
    1% of in person votes fail to be counted for whatever reason.
    2% of absentee votes fail to be counted for whatever reason. This is already a couple of million.
    You're already wrong, here.

    From the Comprehensive Report on the 2016 Election, only 318,728 out of the 33,378,450 submitted absentee ballots were rejected. That's 0.95%.

    From the Comprehensive Report on the 2012 Election, only 258,380 out of the 27,624,254 submitted absentee ballots were rejected. That's 0.94%.

    So I guess, then, that you should agree that absentee ballot voting is better than in-person voting, right?


    "The difference between stupidity
    and genius is that genius has its limits."

    --Alexandre Dumas-fils

  11. #54551
    Quote Originally Posted by PhaelixWW View Post
    You're already wrong, here.

    From the Comprehensive Report on the 2016 Election, only 318,728 out of the 33,378,450 submitted absentee ballots were rejected. That's 0.95%.

    From the Comprehensive Report on the 2012 Election, only 258,380 out of the 27,624,254 submitted absentee ballots were rejected. That's 0.94%.

    So I guess, then, that you should agree that absentee ballot voting is better than in-person voting, right?
    There is a reason he won't cite his sources.

  12. #54552
    43,206, about the same as last Saturday.

    California: 3,404 new cases; 51 deaths
    Wisconsin: 2,817 new cases (new record); 7 deaths
    Fuck Florida.
    Illinois: 2,441 new cases; 25 deaths
    Texas: 2,227 new cases; 100 deaths
    North Carolina: 1,759 new cases; 31 deaths
    Missouri: 1,476 new cases; 39 deaths
    Minnesota: 1,470 new cases (new record); 10 deaths
    Tennessee: 1,437 new cases; 22 deaths
    South Carolina: 1,371 new cases; 26 deaths
    Georgia: 1,359 new cases; 40 deaths
    Indiana: 1,142 new cases; 11 deaths
    Ohio: 1,101 new cases; 6 deaths
    Utah: 1,017 new cases; no deaths reported
    New York: 1,007 new cases; 4 deaths

    Pretty self-explanatory for the most part. The Midwest continues being a shitshow. South Dakota broke their new cases total record for the third time in four days--no word yet on whether Governor Kristi Noem (R) regrets saying "Less COVID; more hunting" while mocking social distancing 4 days ago. The numbers suggest Kentucky will be on my list again at some point next week (970 today and trending upward for the past couple weeks). About half of the states are currently experiencing increasing daily totals of various degrees. Alabama went back down below 1k today suggesting their huge total yesterday was just a correction but I haven't been able to confirm that anywhere. Feel free to chime in if you know something.

    737 deaths is up a bit from last Saturday, putting the total at 209,177. We might still have a 1k+ day next week on Tuesday or Wednesday but I'm expecting the numbers to continue dropping a bit more overall. For now, at least.

    Related news:

    Wildfires and Labor Day celebrations are causing spikes in cases in Oregon.
    The US could see an explosion of Covid-19 cases as fall and winter set in--(The IMHE model suggests deaths per day might jump to 3k in the winter)
    Ex-care home bosses charged over dozens of Covid deaths in Massachusetts--good thing that GOP bill removing liability hasn't gone through yet.

    Stay safe, folks.

  13. #54553
    Quote Originally Posted by Benggaul View Post
    43,206, about the same as last Saturday.

    California: 3,404 new cases; 51 deaths
    Wisconsin: 2,817 new cases (new record); 7 deaths
    Fuck Florida.
    Illinois: 2,441 new cases; 25 deaths
    Texas: 2,227 new cases; 100 deaths
    North Carolina: 1,759 new cases; 31 deaths
    Missouri: 1,476 new cases; 39 deaths
    Minnesota: 1,470 new cases (new record); 10 deaths
    Tennessee: 1,437 new cases; 22 deaths
    South Carolina: 1,371 new cases; 26 deaths
    Georgia: 1,359 new cases; 40 deaths
    Indiana: 1,142 new cases; 11 deaths
    Ohio: 1,101 new cases; 6 deaths
    Utah: 1,017 new cases; no deaths reported
    New York: 1,007 new cases; 4 deaths

    Pretty self-explanatory for the most part. The Midwest continues being a shitshow. South Dakota broke their new cases total record for the third time in four days--no word yet on whether Governor Kristi Noem (R) regrets saying "Less COVID; more hunting" while mocking social distancing 4 days ago. The numbers suggest Kentucky will be on my list again at some point next week (970 today and trending upward for the past couple weeks). About half of the states are currently experiencing increasing daily totals of various degrees. Alabama went back down below 1k today suggesting their huge total yesterday was just a correction but I haven't been able to confirm that anywhere. Feel free to chime in if you know something.

    737 deaths is up a bit from last Saturday, putting the total at 209,177. We might still have a 1k+ day next week on Tuesday or Wednesday but I'm expecting the numbers to continue dropping a bit more overall. For now, at least.

    Related news:

    Wildfires and Labor Day celebrations are causing spikes in cases in Oregon.
    The US could see an explosion of Covid-19 cases as fall and winter set in--(The IMHE model suggests deaths per day might jump to 3k in the winter)
    Ex-care home bosses charged over dozens of Covid deaths in Massachusetts--good thing that GOP bill removing liability hasn't gone through yet.

    Stay safe, folks.
    Kristi Noem is a fucking dipshit.

  14. #54554
    Quote Originally Posted by silveth View Post
    You know the funny part. With all of the things that have gone wrong this year with mail in voting attempts people still think it will work and be fine. After NY and NJ's debacles in their attempts people still think its a good idea at this point. I won't even get into the 100's of documented cases of mail in voting issues over the years (and that is without it being a thing in most states).

    I will state the statistics.

    1% of in person votes fail to be counted for whatever reason.
    2% of absentee votes fail to be counted for whatever reason. This is already a couple of million.
    In the 2 attempts at mail in voting in NY and NJ (both democrat run, in democrat districts) they had a failure rate of over 20%. This is from a city and a borrow, not even a whole state.

    But don't actually research and read things like local news or papers, listen to the democrats and the big media that everything with it is perfect.

    Funny that people are trying to accuse Trump of stealing the election before it happens when he is pushing for the same rules that apply every year and its the democrats trying to force a new way no matter how many times it proves unreliable. Even though the "Top Doctors" that the media likes say that in person can be safely just like anything else at this point with social distancing.

    It is interesting that I heard that they said they expect 80+ million votes by mail and it to be a majority for Biden. It would be funny if that 20% failure continues and the 16 million votes that won't count cause Biden to lose.

    I am all for mail in voting if it can be done securely and timely. But the facts seem to be that we don't have the time to make it work right this year.

    This is the democrats blocking the second republican "relief bill" because it was only about providing funds. The Democrat bill had lovely pieces like making voter id laws in states illegal and removing signature verification for absentee ballots.... HUH What exactly did those have to do with extending the funds for people and business in this crisis? I have no idea, but like its been said, never let a good crisis go to waste.
    Where'd you go??? Hello?
    Buh Byeeeeeeeeeeee !!

  15. #54555
    Quote Originally Posted by Blur4stuff View Post
    People verifying signatures aren't all handwriting experts and it's a great way to toss ballots from people that you suspect are voting for democrats.

    Even putting all of that corruption aside, people don't write exactly the same for their entire lives. They change naturally, people get injuries or other disabilities that alter their writing style, etc...

    It doesn't make any sense.
    This is true if you show up in person at the polls too. All you have to do is sign your name and they compare the signatures. Hell, it might even be easier to be fraudulent there, because you can at least see the signature they have on file for you to try and copy.

  16. #54556
    Quote Originally Posted by Zan15 View Post
    Where'd you go??? Hello?
    He won't come back, at least not to actually back up his claims.

  17. #54557
    Quote Originally Posted by Benggaul View Post
    The US could see an explosion of Covid-19 cases as fall and winter set in--(The IMHE model suggests deaths per day might jump to 3k in the winter)
    On a separate note:

    Is the IMHE model useful now?

    The first variant was plain ridiculous and useless, and I wouldn't even call it a model (but used a lot in the US, since it was made in the US - and by Trump since it predicted small numbers for the US).
    I know that the new variant is a bit improved, but has anyone verified whether the new predictions are actually useful?

    (I tried to look a bit, and I'm very sceptical.)

  18. #54558
    The Undying Breccia's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Forogil View Post
    Is the IMHE model useful now?
    I mean, it could be like 538 -- just look at all the projections and average. You're right, Trump did use it back in the day. It predicted 160k total -- whoops -- and 60,000 by August.

    But was the model wrong? Or did people just not follow medical/scientific advice?

    At time of writing, the IMHE model for the US predicts daily death counts rising from 750 to 900 over the next couple weeks, no matter what happens. Only there does it predict three ways: 1) current projection 2) easing and 3) masks worn. Spoiler alert: "current project" and "easing" are within a basketball team of each other until mid November, both ramping up well past 1,000 deaths/day effectively indefinitely. And it predicts deaths/day rising in December to higher than the US has ever had ever ever.

    And the CDC shows only the next couple weeks -- gee, why would the CDC be wary of showing high death counts -- but basically every model agrees with this. Projected deaths are on the rise. IMHE is actually in the middle ground of those predictions.

    The IMHE was showing low values before, low enough that Trump latched onto them like a $130,000 Rasmussen poll. Problem is, they predict 410k deaths by Jan 1 and--

    "Whoa Breccia, that can't be right. You said the deaths would double in three months."

    Yes.

    "...doesn't that mean--"

    Yes. To kill 200,000 people in the next three months, deaths on average will be over two thousand. And considering they're 1,000 now....that means, yeah, they'll have to climb to about 3,000 per day to have that happen. Per day.

    "Okay, but that's the worst-case scenario, with mandates easing. What's the middle ground?"

    Um...that was the middle ground.

    "...is th--"

    The worst case scenario calls for over 600,000 dead. For example, if mandates ease and state open up beaches, bars, and restaurants. Like Florida just did.

    Manymodels have predicted a mid-October death count that will need to be updated. JH for example predicted 205-212k by Oct 17. Yeah... Others predicted 215 to 225k at about that time, If we have 700 dead/day from here till then, we'll hit the low end of that range. If we grow steadily to 1,000 dead per day, we'll hit the high end of that range.

    Keep your eye on the Dakotas. For whatever reason, these states are showing a proportionately high rise in cases and deaths.

  19. #54559
    Quote Originally Posted by Zan15 View Post
    Where'd you go??? Hello?
    He's too busy posting shitty takes in other threads.

  20. #54560
    Quote Originally Posted by Breccia View Post
    I mean, it could be like 538 -- just look at all the projections and average. You're right, Trump did use it back in the day. It predicted 160k total -- whoops -- and 60,000 by August.

    But was the model wrong? Or did people just not follow medical/scientific advice?
    The original "model" was ridiculously wrong. It was just just a curve fitted to data from Wuhan.

    Nothing about susceptible, spread, etc.

    I tried to look at it, and it got country after country wrong.

    The new model has more realistic-looking parameters I understand - but I don't know if someone has checked the predictions.

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