Mega-Thread: Trump Focused Discussion

[cubby]

@cubby

I just thought of something, he is claiming he lives of Mar-A-Lago.

If he was given house arrest there, that would effectively shut down the resort wouldn't it? He couldn't have all them guests or any of that.

Hey, yeah - that's a good point. If that's his "home" then no one else could come in, and of course he couldn't have the resort open with guests coming and going. Interesting.

[Fugus]

I'm pretty sure there's a way to have house arrest in a fashion. After all if someone lives in a condo or apartment if they are on house arrest it isn't like the other residents have to move out.

Not sure if they would be allowed house arrest if living on those locations unless they are moving in with their parents for the duration or something.

[cubby]

I'm pretty sure there's a way to have house arrest in a fashion. After all if someone lives in a condo or apartment if they are on house arrest it isn't like the other residents have to move out.

True - and we see that already with Cohen. Hmmmm...I think it would be a pretty interesting situation. I do know that with House Arrest comes federal officer "guards/minders" that prevent the rules from being broken. Maybe he could live in the residence part while the resort remains open. Would that be worse? Trump trapped in a tiny [hands] home while socializing goes on all around him, and he not able to interact in any way.

[Lenonis]

True - and we see that already with Cohen. Hmmmm...I think it would be a pretty interesting situation. I do know that with House Arrest comes federal officer "guards/minders" that prevent the rules from being broken. Maybe he could live in the residence part while the resort remains open. Would that be worse? Trump trapped in a tiny [hands] home while socializing goes on all around him, and he not able to interact in any way.

It's entirely possible the courts could say something along the lines of "look, you aren't going to be in house arrest ON YOUR RESORT -- find a different place to live."

But I don't know if the courts could really shut down a resort to have someone under house arrest -- especially since Trump isn't technically the owner right? It's the Trump business or something right?

Certainly will be interesting to see how this plays out.

[cubby]

It's entirely possible the courts could say something along the lines of "look, you aren't going to be in house arrest ON YOUR RESORT -- find a different place to live."

But I don't know if the courts could really shut down a resort to have someone under house arrest -- especially since Trump isn't technically the owner right? It's the Trump business or something right?

Certainly will be interesting to see how this plays out.

Agreed - they could definitely go that direction. And we are getting WAY ahead of ourselves, too - a bad habit of mine. Trump hasn't even been charged.

[Lenonis]

Agreed - they could definitely go that direction. And we are getting WAY ahead of ourselves, too - a bad habit of mine. Trump hasn't even been charged.

Sure. And I have no doubt the courts are going to be sensitive to any sort of sentencing of a former president that involves jail time.

Although more than anything -- I want to see Trump have to do community service. CAN YOU IMAGINE?!?

[Fugus]

Sure. And I have no doubt the courts are going to be sensitive to any sort of sentencing of a former president that involves jail time.

Although more than anything -- I want to see Trump have to do community service. CAN YOU IMAGINE?!?

Well, they have to walk to line on that one.

He may be a president, but he also tried to overthrow the nation and get people killed. Regardless of his failed job as a president, they CAN'T go easy on those crimes if they want anyone to take the thought of accountability seriously if they have a modicum of power.

[cubby]

Sure. And I have no doubt the courts are going to be sensitive to any sort of sentencing of a former president that involves jail time.

Although more than anything -- I want to see Trump have to do community service. CAN YOU IMAGINE?!?

That would be fantastic. Him, picking up garbage. However, if it comes to a trial, I fully expect him to pull the wheelchair move.

[Lenonis]

Well, they have to walk to line on that one.

He may be a president, but he also tried to overthrow the nation and get people killed. Regardless of his failed job as a president, they CAN'T go easy on those crimes if they want anyone to take the thought of accountability seriously if they have a modicum of power.

Right -- but those charges are going to be incredibly hard to land in criminal court. I think Trump's legal liabilities (at least this point) are mostly financial and those aren't likely to come with hardcore prison time.

- - - Updated - - -

That would be fantastic. Him, picking up garbage. However, if it comes to a trial, I fully expect him to pull the wheelchair move.

Yeah, I'm sure his lawyers will find a way to weasel into some cushy service but I'd love for him to be forced to feed the homeless or work with minorities.

[Benggaul]

I think y'all are putting the cart before the horse already thinking about Trump's house arrest.

I mean, you seem to be assuming he'll be able to keep Mar-A-Lago if things really go south and Deutsche Bank wants their money.

[Fugus]

Right -- but those charges are going to be incredibly hard to land in criminal court. I think Trump's legal liabilities (at least this point) are mostly financial and those aren't likely to come with hardcore prison time.

For the financial stuff, that will be easy to stick I think and as another mentioned, will he even have that resort after all is paid back?

As far as the other charges, I don't they would be too hard to prove at this point given Trumps telling them to walk on the capital while his own lawyer said "Let there by trial by combat" in that same meeting combined with how Trump refused to call in for help and even mocked McCarthy saying the rioters cared about the election more than him.

Then you get the crimes where he was trying to steal the election with his actions in the post office and so on.

The financial stuff will be easy to stick and may likely lose him his resort anyways, but the other stuff would be hard NOT to stick given all we have at this point.

[cubby]

I think y'all are putting the cart before the horse already thinking about Trump's house arrest.

I mean, you seem to be assuming he'll be able to keep Mar-A-Lago if things really go south and Deutsche Bank wants their money.

Agreed - we are definitely WAY ahead of ourselves. We can definitely confirm that the Manhattan DA has Trump's tax records - for sure has them, not "is about to go get them after this last court ruling" bullshit.

So the game is afoot.

Trump currently facing:

• Rape defamation suit.
• Voter intimidation criminal suit (GA)
• Civil investigation, fraud (NYC).
• Criminal investigation, fraud, tax fraud (NYC).
• Tax fraud, criminal (NYSt).
• Inauguration Fund Fraud civil/criminal, D.C.

Feel free to add to the list.

[Breccia]

I mean, you seem to be assuming he'll be able to keep Mar-A-Lago if things really go south and Deutsche Bank wants their money.

Deutsche Bank didn't give Mar-a-Lago loans, near as I can tell. So while Trump might be forced to sell to make up his personal guarantee, or he might be forced to relinquish ownership if he declares personal bankruptcy, Deutsche wouldn't just take it directly.

They would get his Chicago skyscraper, the Doral golf course, the DC hotel, Reading Railroad, Baltic Avenue, and probably Water Works, because taking that many things from Trump will make him cry like a bitch. All of these properties have been losing money because people realized how horrible a human being Trump is, but scrape his name off the sides and they should return to profitable properties again. And thanks to Trump directly forcing the issue, his hotel is still an ideal spot for foreign visitors -- which will no longer be a conflict of interest.

The properties started losing money, but that's not bank fraud of course. It is, however, a reason why, if/when Trump declares those businesses bankrupt or goes bankrupt himself, their values as assets will be low. Trump could very easily be forced to "sell" these properties for far less than he paid for them, which in this context, means Deutsche Bank would actually take a significant portion of Trump's own assets.

Or, he lied to the IRS and goes to jail. One of the two. We all remember Cohen has been cooperating for a literal year, right?

[Benggaul]

Deutsche Bank didn't give Mar-a-Lago loans, near as I can tell. So while Trump might be forced to sell to make up his personal guarantee, or he might be forced to relinquish ownership if he declares personal bankruptcy, Deutsche wouldn't just take it directly.

Yep, this is how I meant it.

[Breccia]

Feel free to add to the list.

Okay. DC is going after him for the inauguration fraud.

Also near as I can tell, Trump owes Deutsche Bank several hundred million dollars. Those three properties I listed? I don't think they covered it even before he was elected. They definitely don't now.

[Paranoid Android]

Okay. DC is going after him for the inauguration fraud.

Also near as I can tell, Trump owes Deutsche Bank several hundred million dollars. Those three properties I listed? I don't think they covered it even before he was elected. They definitely don't now.

Remember the slush fund that too many idiots gave Trump to "save the election". I really hope that banks don't let him slide with paying pennies on the dollar or a few million, meaning small percentage to give him time to come up with the money.

The rich, or wannabee, con artist rich have different rules. I wish the banks show no mercy as a fake billionaire and ex Prez.

[solinari6]

Trump currently facing:
[*]Voter intimidation criminal suit (GA)

If this starts to go ANYWHERE, I am predicting a pardon from gov Kemp.

[D Luniz]

If this starts to go ANYWHERE, I am predicting a pardon from gov Kemp.

If he's dumb enough to do that, there won't be enough laws to suppress the turn out in the next election

[cubby]

Okay. DC is going after him for the inauguration fraud.

Also near as I can tell, Trump owes Deutsche Bank several hundred million dollars. Those three properties I listed? I don't think they covered it even before he was elected. They definitely don't now.

If Deutsche Bank goes after all the money they are owed, either because of fraud or just because the loans coming due, Trump is going to lose a lot of properties. And those properties are either significantly under water or just plain worthless with the Trump name on them. So him might be facing personal bankruptcy as well. Which would, again, be awesome.

- - - Updated - - -

If this starts to go ANYWHERE, I am predicting a pardon from gov Kemp.

There is no upside to Kemp doing that. It might seem attractive, but as @D Luniz pointed out, he would get killed in the 2022 election. Stacy is probably going to beat him anyway, so there could a lame-duck commutation, but that's down the "maybe" road.

[Lenonis]

As far as the other charges, I don't they would be too hard to prove at this point given Trumps telling them to walk on the capital while his own lawyer said "Let there by trial by combat" in that same meeting combined with how Trump refused to call in for help and even mocked McCarthy saying the rioters cared about the election more than him.

I really don't think those charges would stick. Mainly because Trump didn't say "I want you to now go to the Capital, invade it, and try to hang Pence." Given his office, and the nature of political rhetoric I think it will be extremely hard to get anything to stick with the Jan 6th riots.

Then you get the crimes where he was trying to steal the election with his actions in the post office and so on.

There might definitely be something with Georgia -- although again...there may be enough wiggle room in the fact he didn't outright say "commit election fraud for me that's an order." As for other things -- like obstruction of justice and the like...those are more political and I am going to guess the Biden administration is going to have the stomach to go after Trump.

the other stuff would be hard NOT to stick given all we have at this point.

Well I guess we'll see...I'm not so optimistic.