Mega-Thread: Trump Focused Discussion

[Breccia]

All of the non-insane members of the GOP must be shitting their pants.

They're banking on building up an even more solid grip of the rabid fanbase by claiming it's all a Chinese Hoax. If they back down now, they'll be disavowed and thrown out of office. It's in their best interest to keep going until natural herd immunity or something, claim it was a harmless little chest cold, and Trump saved the world with his UV light bleach hydroiverRogan.

[Gorsameth]

They're banking on building up an even more solid grip of the rabid fanbase by claiming it's all a Chinese Hoax. If they back down now, they'll be disavowed and thrown out of office. It's in their best interest to keep going until natural herd immunity or something, claim it was a harmless little chest cold, and Trump saved the world with his UV light bleach hydroiverRogan.

That becomes harder and harder the more the cultists have someone they care about die from Covid, and with deaths being the way they are that group is growing rapidly.

[PhaelixWW]

That becomes harder and harder the more the cultists have someone they care about die from Covid, and with deaths being the way they are that group is growing rapidly.

Also, I think anyone likely to believe that story was already on board the death cult express.

Not that they have much of any other play, I guess. They'll bluff it out as long as they're able.

[Breccia]

That becomes harder and harder the more the cultists have someone they care about die from Covid, and with deaths being the way they are that group is growing rapidly.

Yes...but it would take a lot to dramatically change results.

Using Fuck Florida as an example, @PhaelixWW showed an average death rate of about 250. In 2016, the election was oddly close. It was tight, a mere percent and change off. Trump won by 110,000 votes.

Which, at the current rate of death, would be 440 days. If every single death was a Party of Trump member.

Florida would have to maintain this record-breaking COVID surge...literally until the 2022 election is already over. DeSantis still wins.

Deaths alone won't change Florida's demographics until it's too late. For them, mostly.

[PhaelixWW]

Deaths alone won't change Florida's demographics until it's too late. For them, mostly.

Well, hopefully the rest of the country is paying attention, too.

Remember how I mentioned exactly a week ago that the US was passing the 1000 mark in the 7-day average? Well, we just hit 1226, which means that more than 8 months after a working vaccine is approved for use in the US, we've still somehow surpassed last summer's high mark of 1223.

And don't let the graph fool you; it's still going up. (Thanks, Florida Fuckery.)




Things are not looking great for the winter COVID season. That being said, what happens to the voting population of Florida, @Breccia, if that death rate turns from a 250 into a 750 over the winter months? Also, how do you feel about people stealing your bit leading questions?

[Breccia]

that death rate turns from a 250 into a 750 over the winter months?

I'm not sure it will in Florida. 250+ is already really high, schools are in session, etc etc.

...but yes, in that case, the 110,000 deaths would happen before the 2022 election.

[Rasulis]

Has anyone said Fuck Florida yet today?

Florida just added 1338 COVID deaths, even though their daily total for today is 11.

Florida's peak 7-day average for COVID deaths is now 245, on 8/16/21. For reference, the previous high marks were 201 back in January of this year and 227 in August of last year.




So again, if you live in Florida, stay safe and don't forget to vote out the death cult.

In the past seven days, on average, the state has added 325 deaths and 19,902 cases each day, according to Herald calculations of CDC data. This is a record high for the death average.

The daily average per Herald was 242 on 08/26.

[PhaelixWW]

I'm not sure it will in Florida. 250+ is already really high, schools are in session, etc etc.

...but yes, in that case, the 110,000 deaths would happen before the 2022 election.

Florida has already lost 46k people to COVID so far, if their official numbers are to be believed.

(Narrator: They are not.)

This is where I'm obliged to point out that Ron DeSantis won his last election in 2018 by less than 33k votes.

There is a disturbingly non-zero chance that by the time the 2022 election rolls around, DeSantis will have helped cause the death of enough of his followers to switch the result of the election if everyone (still alive) were to vote the same way as last time.

[Kaleredar]

Florida has already lost 46k people to COVID so far, if their official numbers are to be believed.

(Narrator: They are not.)

This is where I'm obliged to point out that Ron DeSantis won his last election in 2018 by less than 33k votes.

There is a disturbingly non-zero chance that by the time the 2022 election rolls around, DeSantis will have helped cause the death of enough of his followers to switch the result of the election if everyone (still alive) were to vote the same way as last time.

Maybe. Whoever is running against Desantis should also really play up the "holy hecking heck look at how bad Florida suffered during the pandemic under DeSantis, worse than any other state."

That could really put him on ice, especially with older folks.

[Breccia]

Florida has already lost 46k people to COVID so far, if their official numbers are to be believed.

And Trump won Florida in 2020 by more than he won Florida in 2016. I used 2016 because it was "close, but not close enough".

Again, in a sane world, DeSantis killing his own people in public on purpose would hurt him at the polls. Bizarrely enough, this is happening.

In Morning Consult polling that concluded on July 1, only 38% of independent voters said they disapproved of DeSantis’ job performance, yet in polling conducted August 21 to August 30, that number had spiked to 51%.

DeSantis still polls over 80% with Party of Trump members, who as I've said dozens of times as an exaggeration but is frighteningly real, would rather die than admit they made a mistake.

[unfilteredJW]

And it’s Labor Day weekend which means every mouth breathing chud from Dallas to Atlanta is heading down to us.

Playing covid on hard mode has been fucking stupid.

[Breccia]

That could really put him on ice, especially with older folks.

Honestly, this seems at first like a solid play. Not just because of the trope that Florida is full of old people, and old people vote. Florida retirement communities are not doing especially well.

About 70,000 people live in a nursing home in Florida, where the rate of fully vaccinated residents per facility — 73.1% — is lower than every other state except Nevada, which reported a resident vaccination rate of 71.7% per nursing home as of Aug. 15. The national average of vaccinated residents per nursing home is 83.1%.

It would be trivial to make ads showing DeSantis mocking Cuomo for not protecting retirement communities...then splashing the death stats from retirement communities all over it. Make it clear that DeSantis is not just trying to kill your children, he's trying to kill your parents too. I would imagine the vast majority of "the party of familiy values" (eyeroll) that can vote, have both parents and children still alive. Even if those parents or children didn't die, a reminder it wasn't for lack of trying sounds useful. Again, should be extra effective since DeSantis mocked Cuomo for failing, then fucked up afterwards, proving he learned nothing.

Republicans love to use fear as a motivator. Give them what they want.

[PhaelixWW]

And Trump won Florida in 2020 by more than he won Florida in 2016. I used 2016 because it was "close, but not close enough".

One thing at a time, here. Trump won't be on the ballot in 2022 (unless some of the more bizarre theories play out and he decides to run for a House seat). For 2022, the reasonable goal is to oust DeSantis and Kemp.

Again, in a sane world, DeSantis killing his own people in public on purpose would hurt him at the polls. Bizarrely enough, this is happening.

In Morning Consult polling that concluded on July 1, only 38% of independent voters said they disapproved of DeSantis’ job performance, yet in polling conducted August 21 to August 30, that number had spiked to 51%.

Did you perhaps misread this? His disapproval is what's spiked from 38% to 51%. And those independent voters (about 30% of the registered voters in Florida) can definitely swing an election. That 13% difference in independent voters represents almost 500k voters statewide.

DeSantis still polls over 80% with Party of Trump members, who as I've said dozens of times as an exaggeration but is frighteningly real, would rather die than admit they made a mistake.

Yes, well, they're putting their proverbial money where their mouth is on this one. It's all so sad, really. DeSantis is taking his sure-bet voters and he's killing them off.

And in the process, he's alienating the swing votes.

I'd laugh at his gross stupidity, but, you know, people are dying. It's all so very unnecessarily.

- - - Updated - - -

And it’s Labor Day weekend which means every mouth breathing chud from Dallas to Atlanta is heading down to us.

Playing covid on hard mode has been fucking stupid.

Man, this is like playing COVID on hard mode and telling your healers to go dps instead.

[Bluespiderman57]

It would be trivial to make ads showing DeSantis mocking Cuomo for not protecting retirement communities...then splashing the death stats from retirement communities all over it. Make it clear that DeSantis is not just trying to kill your children, he's trying to kill your parents too. I would imagine the vast majority of "the party of familiy values" (eyeroll) that can vote, have both parents and children still alive. Even if those parents or children didn't die, a reminder it wasn't for lack of trying sounds useful. Again, should be extra effective since DeSantis mocked Cuomo for failing, then fucked up afterwards, proving he learned nothing.

Republicans love to use fear as a motivator. Give them what they want.

I seem to remember someone years ago saying the Florida Democratic Party was one of the worst, most incompetent state parties in the country. I thought it may have been you, but it could have been Skroe, I can't remember. Regardless, if they don't try to do something like you described, whoever said it will certainly be proven right.

[PhaelixWW]

It would be trivial to make ads showing DeSantis mocking Cuomo for not protecting retirement communities...then splashing the death stats from retirement communities all over it. Make it clear that DeSantis is not just trying to kill your children, he's trying to kill your parents too. I would imagine the vast majority of "the party of familiy values" (eyeroll) that can vote, have both parents and children still alive. Even if those parents or children didn't die, a reminder it wasn't for lack of trying sounds useful. Again, should be extra effective since DeSantis mocked Cuomo for failing, then fucked up afterwards, proving he learned nothing.

Republicans love to use fear as a motivator. Give them what they want.

Or, we could just let the Republicans do it to themselves.

[Breccia]

Did you perhaps misread this?

Nope. Read it back -- I said "hurt him at the polls" is happening.

[Benggaul]

Thursday's report:

177,568 new cases; about 3k fewer than last week.

Top 10:

Fuck Florida.
Texas: 26,667 new cases; 314 deaths
California: 11,446 new cases; 144 deaths
Georgia: 8,412 new cases; 136 deaths
North Carolina: 7,901 new cases; 96 deaths
Ohio: 7,087 new cases; 20 deaths (according to NYT--worldometers hasn't had daily death totals from them for a while)
New York: 5,751 new cases; 48 deaths
South Carolina: 5,523 new cases; 59 deaths
Kentucky: 5,432 new cases; 45 deaths
Indiana: 5,152 new cases; 25 deaths

Everyone's already been doing a thorough job of detailing what's going on with Florida, so there's no point in me belaboring the point. Fuck Florida. Texas' numbers continue to rise and no, I will never let it go that Abbott claimed Texas had mastered the pandemic. Much like with Florida I doubt it will translate into anything changing come election day because people's memories are shorter than the...well...shorter than one's life expectancy teaching in a Florida school. Meanwhile cases in California continue to be about half those of Texas despite having over 10 million more people. The top 10 worst states in terms of positivity are South Dakota, Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi, Idaho, Georgia, Florida, Oklahoma, Nebraska and Texas. I doubt any of these are a surprise to anybody.

1,565 deaths is about 100 more than last week and brings the total to 662,853. Florida (with 325 deaths according to NYT), Texas (over 300 for the second day) and California (less than half of Texas) were in the top 3, though Georgia inched closer to taking over the third slot with 136. The 7-day average continues to creep upwards, though we should see the curve flattening out as new cases are also beginning to plateau. We'll see what next week brings.

Related news:

US hospitals hit with nurse staffing crisis amid COVID--This isn't news to most of us, but some hospitals are seeing upwards of 20+ resignations in a week. Some is due to fatigue and stress generated by the pandemic (and the fucking morons who refuse the vaccine because of conspiracy theories), but a lot is also due to the fact that the rates for traveling nurses have skyrocketed as demand has increased.

Ariz. state senator who saved Gabby Giffords's life ends congressional bid due to COVID-19 surge--The pandemic has hit Arizona hard on multiple occasions and it's still not doing so hot right now. Rather than give up his job at the hospital as a trauma doctor he's giving up his campaign so he can help more people. It's really a double-edged sword that the people we SHOULD have in positions of leadership are too moral and responsible to run for and accept those positions of leadership.

Stay safe, folks.

[Breccia]

Everyone's already been doing a thorough job of detailing what's going on with Florida, so there's no point in me belaboring the point. Fuck Florida.

There absolutely is. Florida's intentional mishandling of the problem and outright lies needs to be called out at every opportunity. Just because the first six jurors say "guilty" doesn't mean the seventh should stay silent.

[gondrin]

There absolutely is. Florida's intentional mishandling of the problem and outright lies needs to be called out at every opportunity. Just because the first six jurors say "guilty" doesn't mean the seventh should stay silent.

I feel the only way for DeSantis to even remotely not be reelected, and it absolutely pains me to say it as it is a disgusting thing to even think about so no, I do NOT want this to happen EVER, is if a large amount(more then 1000) of children in florida die to COVID all at once RIGHT before the election.

Even saying that makes me extremely upset.

[Breccia]

Even saying that makes me extremely upset.

Then you won't like this much.

About 20 percent of all new COVID cases are children.

Yep, school's open.

Incidentally, the average starting Jan 22 ("it's just one person from China, I'm a giant orange fuckwad, we'll be fine") is 14.8% cases being children, and it's now 22.4%. That is a pretty significant increase. Also, the CDC recently reported that the hospitalization rate of children was dramatically higher in states with low vaccine rates, which yeah we knew it would be but not the extent. It's up to quadruple.