Mega-Thread: Trump Focused Discussion

[Breccia]

Sure sounds like some insider trading to me.

The entire deal has been shady from the start. DWAC and Trump weren't supposed to talk first.

That said, one of two things happened.

One, they bought early, the stock shot up to its entry-level peak, they sold, there are records of that, and they're going to jail.

Two, they still have their stocks and have lost money. DWAC stock price has gone up 9% or so since Musk did to the deal what Trump spent $130,000 to do, but it's still sub-30.

[cubby]

I just don't see that happening, and not even for @Shadowferal 's reason. Well, not entirely.

DeSantis wants to be the next Trump, and knows full well he cannot be the current Trump. He's waiting in the wings for exactly that reason -- he knows he can't take on Trump at Trump's game. Right now, he has some easy victories because Trump's followers will back him -- because DeSantis hasn't turned on him, or more realistically, Trump doesn't view what DeSantis has done/is planning to do as a betrayal yet.

DeSantis will flat-out refuse to run, until Trump has said "I am not running" in a credible form. Such as by being arrested. Or dying. Or faking an illness when he realizes he can't win. DeSantis will throw his hat into the ring so hard the very second that happens, people will think Goldfinger is being rebooted¹.

Which brings me back to this point: DeSantis wants to be the next Trump. Other than the fact that he's not a failure in every single step he's taken, hasn't cheated on his wife...I think....is younger, healthier, and actually has governing experience, he basically is Trump.

VP picks have to widen the ticket, not double down on it. The GOP might nominate a woman this century, but an African-American, Hispanic, or Jew isn't looking good. DeSantis is a middle-aged white male, a demographic Trump already has locked up.

The Team Trump ticket gains literally nothing by having DeSantis as a running mate. They don't need a Trump, they already have one. As I said recently, if Trump loses even 10% of the votes he had in 2016, he loses the election. Having a Trump/Trump ticket, while so many Team Trump members are being hauled off in chains and while President Harris keeps saying "Trump's COVID pandemic" or "Trump's friend Russia" in every press briefing every question, is not a strong enough selling point.

Now I'll get back to Shadowferal. We all know Trump is a sociopathic narcissist, who sees betrayal in everything done by everyone which isn't in Trump's best interest. Untrustworthy people don't trust anyone.

What would Trump, who would at that point be even older, even fatter, and even less able to climb a small hill, think about having DeSantis within arm's reach? He would think, and no I'm not exaggerating, "DeSantis will try to kill me and take over the country."

Because Trump himself did the same thing. And sociopaths project themselves on everyone they view as human.

Trump shouldn't take DeSantis, but also, Trump won't take DeSantis. Trump will see too much of Trump in DeSantis, which he should. This is why Pence turned out to be perfect. He broadened the base...slightly...but he rarely challenged Trump on anything. Flynn, at the beginning, that's it. Pence never took the initiative. He never formed policies that took effect, never formed task forces or committees that mattered, and was once mistaken for a potted plant.

Pence let Trump attempt to murder him, and did nothing.

Trump will want that, now knows he can have that, and is no longer in a position where he will allow the classic Republicans to dictate terms. He's going to find an attractive white woman who will do everything he says, probably for $130,000. Yes, we're looking for a whore, so naturally my first thought is Stefanik. But as this thread has shown, he has his pick of the brothel.

Quite frankly, DeSantis is a bigger threat to the country if he does run with Trump's blessing (or implied blessing). He would have all of Trump's followers, and also would be able to coax some Republicans to return to the voting booth.

---

¹ Batista would have made a fantastic fucking Oddjob. Too bad they already used him.

I very much agree with the analysis above.

DeSantis is frightening in his combination of Trump-level idiocy and ability to build his own following, outside or with Trump's blessing or ignorance. I agree that DeSantis probably won't accept any VP slot, and will stay in the shadows of the national campaign until Trump is sidelined - either by death or imprisonment or "poor health" (although I don't see him ever admitting that - his narcissism wouldn't allow it).

However, if Trump is sidelined, I see DeSantis surging forward, with Nikki Haley as his VP.

[Breccia]

DeSantis probably won't accept any VP slot

Oh, he might. We'll never know, it'll never be offered, but he might. Trump could actually be correct that DeSantis would kill him and take the Oval Office.

- - - Updated - - -

Bannon fails to have the trial delayed.

"You already posted that."

He keeps trying. Near as I can tell from reading five articles, the latest attempt by Trump ally and not-at-the-relavent-time advisor Bannon objected because communications between his lawyers and the Jan 6th panel mentioned privilege, therefore, he thought he didn't need to comply. Yes, that's stupid, he still argued that. The communication will be allowed but all discussion of privilege will be redacted.

Bannon's team arguments before the judge strongly suggests Bannon's team has multiple, conflicting defenses, and doesn't want to get halfway through one when they have to swap to another, contradictory one. This redaction forces their hand. Bannon's team still seems concerned, but the jury is now pooled so they're out of options.

Incidentally, while my own courtroom experience is limited, I can't off the top of my head think of a worse thing to do in court, than to outright tell the judge "we haven't decided which defense to go with". Because if you have only one defense, it's one you believe in that might actually be true. If you have multiple, you're a criminal.

Bannon is being asked why he felt the deadlines for complying with a subpoena were flexible. Since we know full well he didn't have privilege, and can no longer even broach that topic, he's got nothing less but a Congressional letter saying "By this date, or else" and his response which was "I just don't want to".

- - - Updated - - -

In the ongoing catastrophe that is Musk's failed attempt to get Trump back on Twitter, Twitter as predicted gets a fast-track trial to force Musk to pay up, one way or the other.

Musk tried to delay the trial on the grounds that the final deadline was April. The judge disagreed, saying that this trial was only part one of what could be a dozen parts. Twitter also said the delay was hurting their business and the judge agreed.

Musk also tried arguing that he needed time to go through that discovery thing we keep talking about, which he claimed would normally take three to four years. The judge didn't buy that, either. Also, if it would take you several months to go through discovery, why the fuck would you be screaming that they didn't have it in a couple months? It's a pretty transparently false defense.

Like, one day into this and Musk is already being eviscerated. He's going to beg for a settlement, isn't he?

[Poopymonster]

Like, one day into this and Musk is already being eviscerated. He's going to beg for a settlement, isn't he?

I can almost hear this in his voice.

[Breccia]

I can almost hear this in his voice.

That may be what it comes to, simply throwing Twitter over a billion dollars so he doesn't have to pay double its market value.

- - - Updated - - -

Fulton County names 16 targets of its investigation, or to use language Trump supporters will understand, "Fake Electors".

As our investigation has matured and new evidence has come to light, in a spirit of integrity we feel it only fitting to inform you that your clients' status has changed to 'Target'

-- letter from Georgia to the 16 Fake Electors

It's also worth noting that one of the Fake Electors and late night name mashup David Shafer (and also a state senator) has filed to have Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis removed from the investigation, on the grounds that Willis wants to find criminals and Shafer doesn't want to be found guilty of the crimes he committed.

- - - Updated - - -

McConnell "gently" tells Trump not to run.

I think we’re going to have a crowded field for president. I assume most of that will unfold later and people will be picking their candidates in a crowded primary field

Just a reminder, Trump has said this:

I feel very confident that if I decide to run, I’ll win. Well, in my own mind, I’ve already made that decision, so nothing factors in anymore

Since Trump is claiming he has already decided, and also claiming that if he runs he'll win...why hasn't he announced yet? By his logic, he'd win.

Or, he knows he'll lose if he runs.

Or, he's lying.

[Kaleredar]

McConnell "gently" tells Trump not to run.

That's precisely what netted them Trump as the candidate in 2016. And could very well end up making him the nominee again in 2024, unless the GOP makes major moves to disallow it.

However, unlike 2016, people's "what's the worst that could happen?/Maybe we need an outsider/Really the dems and republicans are just the same/Hillary is icky!" apathy that hung over that election no longer exists. People know exactly how bad a Trump presidency is.

Since Trump is claiming he has already decided, and also claiming that if he runs he'll win...why hasn't he announced yet? By his logic, he'd win.

Or, he knows he'll lose if he runs.

Lose the primary? I'm actually somewhat doubtful. I suppose it would have to come down to whether people were actually running against Trump. DeSantis is a dangerous ultra-conservative and would be a terrible president, but he's more shrewd than Trump is and I don't doubt that he'd put the screws to Trump's failures in whatever they would pass off as "debates." But at the same time, Trump would do the same back, describing how Florida is a refugee haven for Cuban communists and liberal sanctuaries like Orlando and Miami reliant on mickey mouse tourist dollars, all to the drunken, belching accolades of his followers. And Trump is popular throughout every bumfuck borough in the United States; that only holds true for DeSantis in Florida.

Lose the election, however? That's far more likely. Like I said, Trump lost once already. People aren't so prepared to be apathetic about a second Trump term. Neither of those things bode well for Trump, and rednecks yelling "let's go Brandon" at a tractor pull aren't likely to change that. The most earnest critique about Biden is that he isn't being progressive enough, and nobody deciding between voting for Trump or Biden is going to care much about that particular aspect.

Or, he's lying.

Or he's just a bloviating moron who has the incessant need to claim he's the most bestest at everything without giving such claims any actual thought.

I'll give the pumpkin man enough credit to know that he currently has the GOP by the balls, and the more in the air he keeps them about what he's going to do by not committing the more control he has over them, as they're effectively unable to make a move.

[Breccia]

Or he's just a bloviating moron who has the incessant need to claim he's the most bestest at everything

Hey, we don't know for sure he had sex with Ivanka.

Oh, incessant. I thought you said something else.

Trump might think he has the GOP by the balls, but...does he? We are seeing a slow but solid migration away from him. And it's not like he's doing great in court, either.

[Kaleredar]

Hey, we don't know for sure he had sex with Ivanka.

Oh, incessant. I thought you said something else.

Trump might think he has the GOP by the balls, but...does he? We are seeing a slow but solid migration away from him. And it's not like he's doing great in court, either.

At the end of the day I think he still does.

The GOP can’t come out and say “we are removing trump from the party.” His followers will turn on them like vicious dogs. I mean, if people think that the Bernie bros who got their panties in a twist about Hillary supposedly “stealing” the nomination from Bernie were bad, at least they weren’t willing to assault and possibly kill people like Trump’s sycophants clearly are.

If trump tells his followers “don’t vote GOP, write me in or sit it out” he tanks their chances in any purple states and certainly the presidency. Because if even 10% of any population of republicans listen to him, the GOP can kiss those races goodbye.

I don’t doubt that the gop is trying to oust trump. They know he’s toxic. They know he’s too hard to control. They know he’s a loser. He, as an incumbent, lost them the presidency, an event that hasn’t happened in three decades.

But they need him (or more specifically, his voters) and they can’t craft a strategy to tactfully remove him if they don’t know what he’s going to do next. And I think trump knows both those things, and is prepared to milk it for all it’s worth.

[Breccia]

But they need him (or more specifically, his voters)

This is where they agree. Trump can't win on his own, but he can sink the GOP's chances on his own. They need his rabid fanbase, in a way that doesn't involve him running. Honestly, some of them should be considering, well...killing him. If Trump were to die, hundreds of GOP members could suddenly claim Trump loved them and endorsed them.

[Kaleredar]

This is where they agree. Trump can't win on his own, but he can sink the GOP's chances on his own. They need his rabid fanbase, in a way that doesn't involve him running. Honestly, some of them should be considering, well...killing him. If Trump were to die, hundreds of GOP members could suddenly claim Trump loved them and endorsed them.

As I said earlier, trump kicking the bucket would be the best possible situation for the GOP. The second best is that they somehow convince trump to not run, either by giving him a ton of money or promising him some cushy do-nothing job where he feels important, and then have trump officially endorse the GOP’s next chosen.

But even that would require Trump to keep his word, which is a toss-up.

[Gorsameth]

As I said earlier, trump kicking the bucket would be the best possible situation for the GOP. The second best is that they somehow convince trump to not run, either by giving him a ton of money or promising him some cushy do-nothing job where he feels important, and then have trump officially endorse the GOP’s next chosen.

But even that would require Trump to keep his word, which is a toss-up.

Nothing the GOP can offer would weigh up against the protection from prosecution that being the President would give Trump.

I 100% believe that if he runs it won't be because of money, it will be to avoid criminal investigations.

[Breccia]

The second best is that they somehow convince trump to not run, either by giving him a ton of money or promising him some cushy do-nothing job where he feels important, and then have trump officially endorse the GOP’s next chosen.

Pushing Trump to the side also helps the GOP in the increasingly likely chance he goes bankrupt or gets arrested. It hurts them less if he's not the figurehead.

[PrimiOne]

The only plausible scenarios where Trump does not run in 2024 are incapacitating illnes and death. Period.

This narcissistic megalomaniac with a messiah complex that would scare Jim Jones and David Koresh won't have any problems in setting the GOP ( or the country) in fire if he gets to reign over the ashes and although in a "normal" (...what does that term means now?) political ambient one could always say "Man plans...god laughs" pointing at the many things that can happen in these 2.5 years we must not forget he has forged ( his biggest sucess) an aura of political inmunity over his persona. No matter what could happen in this period will be fake news, irrelevant or less worrysome than whatever talking point about Biden is hot at the moment.

Tapes about him explicitly telling the Proud Boys to kill Pence could release and it wouldn't mean shit ( Mike laid his own bed). We could see him planning the 2024 strategy directly with Putin and it wouldn't mean shit ( he is playing a chess game with the russian).If he gets charged ( wich won't happen) is a political witch hunt...and he will still run.

Trump ,for his cult, is a paladin with a permanent divine shield on ( and this one allows you to attack). There's nothing the GOP can do about it but waiting death stops the cooldown.

[Edge-]

https://www.lgbtqnation.com/2022/07/...-nearest-tree/

A Florida school board candidate argued in a public meeting that doctors who provide care for transgender children “should be hanging from the nearest tree.”

Alisabeth Janai Lancaster, who is running for a spot on the Santa Rosa County School Board, made the violent comments this past Monday at a political forum organizes by the far-right organization Gulf Coast Patriots at the St. Sylvester Catholic Church in Navarre, Florida.

“I am a conservative and hold Christian values and beliefs,” Lancaster said in her speech. “I would love to see the prayer reinstated instead of the moment of silence. Our country was founded on Judeo-Christian values and beliefs that I believe should be respected and encouraged.”

“The children should not be burdened with the woke agenda that is leaving a path of destruction everywhere it goes,” she said.

“Just to mention what has recently surfaced, the pharmaceutical companies are paying $1.3 million for each gender reassignment,” Lancaster continued. It’s unclear what she’s referring to or where she got her number.

“These doctors that are going along with mutilating these children and prescribing hormone blockers to these kids, in my opinion, they should be hanging from the nearest tree,” Lancaster told the crowd, getting loud applause.

Just another reminder that Republican candidates for public office continue to out themselves as violent, murderous, hateful bigots. Also, liars that just make shit up to justify their violent, murderous, hateful bigotry.

- - - Updated - - -

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/n...-was-fbi-agent

Herschel Walker seems to be campaigning to be the most dishonest candidate of all time, at this rate. His latest lie?

Georgia Republican Senate candidate Herschel Walker falsely claimed that he was an FBI agent in a newly resurfaced video, another blunder for a campaign plagued by its candidate’s missteps.

In the 2019 clip, Walker can be seen telling an audience, “I worked for the law enforcement. Y’all didn’t know that either?”

“I spent time at Quantico at the FBI training school,” he said. “Y’all didn’t know I was an agent?”

It was not, and has never been an FBI agent. His campaigns response?

Walker’s campaign told the Washington Post earlier this year that he had led “women’s self-defense training, participating in the FBI Academy at Quantico.” Such a role is not the same as being an FBI agent, as Walker claimed in the video.

So...yes, still a lie. Then we have this gem -

He proceeded to tell a story in which he said he considered killing a man before a “honk if you love Jesus” sign on a truck “calmed me down.”

Ex-fucking-scuse me? He was ready to murder a man over some apparent road rage incident? And Republicans think this guy should be a Senator?

Worth noting: This is the conservative Washington Examiner reporting this, not some liberal rag.

- - - Updated - - -

https://www.newsweek.com/kari-lake-m...upport-1726226

Trump-backed AZ governor candidate Kari Lake is encouraging voters to vote by mail! Great stuff!

Except that she has previously demanded that mail in ballots be outright banned. Because we should never expect honesty or consistency from these dishonest pieces of shit.

[bladeXcrasher]

https://www.lgbtqnation.com/2022/07/...-nearest-tree/



Just another reminder that Republican candidates for public office continue to out themselves as violent, murderous, hateful bigots. Also, liars that just make shit up to justify their violent, murderous, hateful bigotry.

- - - Updated - - -

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/n...-was-fbi-agent

Herschel Walker seems to be campaigning to be the most dishonest candidate of all time, at this rate. His latest lie?



It was not, and has never been an FBI agent. His campaigns response?



So...yes, still a lie. Then we have this gem -



Ex-fucking-scuse me? He was ready to murder a man over some apparent road rage incident? And Republicans think this guy should be a Senator?

Worth noting: This is the conservative Washington Examiner reporting this, not some liberal rag.

- - - Updated - - -

https://www.newsweek.com/kari-lake-m...upport-1726226

Trump-backed AZ governor candidate Kari Lake is encouraging voters to vote by mail! Great stuff!

Except that she has previously demanded that mail in ballots be outright banned. Because we should never expect honesty or consistency from these dishonest pieces of shit.

Wonder if she holds the same stance on circumcision, since she's against mutilation of children...or does "judeo-christian" mutilation get a pass.

[Edge-]

https://www.salon.com/2022/07/20/nev...y-that-i-lost/

ELECTION FRAUD!

Failed far-right Nevada Republican gubernatorial candidate Joey Gilbert filed a lawsuit seeking to overturn his primary defeat, citing an "analysis" that found his loss to be a "mathematical impossibility" even after a recount he requested confirmed the results.

Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo last month defeated Gilbert, who attended former President Donald Trump's Jan. 6 rally ahead of the Capitol riot, by double-digits, 38-27. But Gilbert, a voter fraud conspiracy theorist, refused to concede the race.

Gilbert on Friday filed a lawsuit on Friday in Clark County seeking to overturn his loss. The suit claims that Lombardo's win is a "mathematical impossibility." Once the results are "statistically corrected," said a copy of the complaint obtained by The Nevada Independent, will show "with irrefutable geometric finality" that Gilbert won by more than 55,000 votes.

Nevada counties already completed a recount sought by Gilbert, which confirmed that he lost to Lombardo by more than 20,000 votes.

IRREFUTABLE GEOMETRIC FINALITY! Whatever the fuck that means. But I guess he's got proof -

The lawsuit cites an analysis by an "expert mathematician" to claim that thousands of Gilbert votes were "drawn illegally" into Gov. Steve Sisolak's pool of voters in the Democratic primary and, once "corrected," would show that Gilbert defeated Lombardo by more than 50,000 votes.

Oh man, an expert? Who is this guy/gal?!

The "expert mathematician" cited by Gilbert is infamous election conspiracy theorist Edward Solomon, who falsely claimed to have found evidence that the 2020 presidential election was rigged using an algorithm — a claim repeatedly debunked by expert fact-checkers, who noted that Solomon's claims show a "basic misunderstanding of how vote counts work."

Hrm...but who is Solomon?

Dominion Voting Systems, the voting tech company at the heart of one of Trumpworld's debunked conspiracy theories, said in a lawsuit against right-wing network OAN that Solomon is a "convicted drug dealer who never graduated college and whose current job was setting up swing sets in Long Island, New York.

So...not an "expert mathematician" or even a mathematician at all.

"Joey Gilbert rightfully won the primary with 100% certainty," Robert Beadles, a cryptocurrency millionaire who funded Gilbert's recount, wrote on his website. "It's simple; we prove with mathematical certainty Joey Gilbert is the winner of the primary gubernatorial race and that he had over 55,000 votes taken from him. It's a slam dunk case. We'll post the suit, the exhibits, opinions, etc., as soon as the State publishes them."

But he has crypto backers!

[cubby]

https://www.salon.com/2022/07/20/nev...y-that-i-lost/

ELECTION FRAUD!



IRREFUTABLE GEOMETRIC FINALITY! Whatever the fuck that means. But I guess he's got proof -



Oh man, an expert? Who is this guy/gal?!



Hrm...but who is Solomon?



So...not an "expert mathematician" or even a mathematician at all.



But he has crypto backers!

This is the basis for the entire GQP election fraud conspiracy theory. And despite the ludicrousness of the entire ensemble, more than 60% of GQP voters believe the election was fraudulent.

[Edge-]

This is the basis for the entire GQP election fraud conspiracy theory. And despite the ludicrousness of the entire ensemble, more than 60% of GQP voters believe the election was fraudulent.

I mean yeah...because based on the past few elections Republicans are the ones who seem to most consistently engage in attempts at voter fraud. As always, they're just projecting what they're actually doing onto others.

[Breccia]

Hrm...but who is Solomon?

Well I actually have a math degree, bu...wait a minute, this feels reeeeeeeeeally familiar...

One America News' Christina Bobb interviewed the swing set installer, Ed Solomon, on January 27 in a segment about the 2020 election, which President Joe Biden had won nearly three months earlier.

In the interview, Solomon claimed that he conducted a mathematical analysis showing that the results in Fulton County, Georgia, "can only have been done by an algorithm." He added that the probability of Biden's victory in the county was "1 over 10 to an exponent so large there's not enough stars in the universe, there aren't enough atoms in the universe, to explain the number."

You're burying the lede.

Ah yes, there it is. That's the same "mathematician" pushing the same story.

Here is a FactCheck.org review of his original claim. Read it, it's hilarious. But quick version, not only did he go cherry-picking for results that matched his conclusion, he also burned the tree by saying "I got the info from a live feed during the election and it's gone now".

In other words, he lied.

Solomon's previous "work" is noted in the article, Edge- just didn't quote that part. But this furthers @cubby 's point. Trump cultists are hunting down "experts" with a C.V. filled with nonsense, to peddle their false fraud stories to a crowd that subsists on the mathematical parallel of feces.

Let w be the candidate's aggregate percentage. Then: w = zx + (1-z)y = (x+py)/(1+p), where p is the proportion of Mail-in to Election Day ballots in the precinct.

-- the lawsuit, in over 100 pages of equations

Now, show of hands everyone who knows what this guy is doing?

"Um, bulking up his paper with so much garbage that the teacher doesn't feel like reading it?"

Correct. And it could potentially be used to try to confuse a jury...kind of. I already summoned cubby so I'll just ask: when you bring a lawsuit like this, challenging the already-recounted results of an election (or anything else serious), will a jury look at 100 pages of scribbling and then just say "Fuck it, he's probably right"?

While he's doing that, that equation alone has told me what this fake-ass excuse for a mathematician is claiming: the percent in-person votes and percent mailed votes aren't the same percent.

Duh.

We already knew that. Different people vote remotely and that's already established.

Oh, and that bit about an "algorithm" implies an election computer was hacked or hooked into. Which...yeah, you're going to need more evidence than "w =/= p".

All in all, this just looks like yet another toddler having yet another tantrum. "I didn't lose! YOU CHEATED!" followed by shrilling, stamping their widdle feet, soiling themselves, then having a widdle nappie.

[gondrin]

IRREFUTABLE GEOMETRIC FINALITY!

Sounds like either something said on Star Trek trying to explain something that isn't possible or doesn't have a name for it OR a hipster 90s band name doing avantgarde music.