View Poll Results: 10 days left, what'll it be?

Voters
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  • Hard Brexit (crash out)

    45 48.91%
  • No Brexit (Remain by revoking A50)

    24 26.09%
  • Withdrawal Agreement (after a new session is called)

    0 0%
  • Extension + Withdrawal Agreement

    3 3.26%
  • Extension + Crashout

    9 9.78%
  • Extension + Remain

    11 11.96%
  1. #20461
    Titan draykorinee's Avatar
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    Yeah, more than happy to give us a trade deal, they'll lube us up real good and insert the deal nicely up the back passage and we'll thank them for the pleasure because we'll be desperate.

  2. #20462
    Quote Originally Posted by freefolk View Post
    Let's wait for Brexit to happen.

    No sense talking about an American trade deal until then. My hunch is American will be more than happy to give Britain a trade deal.
    The real question is, what will America do with its first official vassal state? This is new for you guys. Don't waste the opportunity.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Butler to Baby Sloths View Post
    The US will give the UK a trade deal, in that they will tell the UK that:

    They will have to accept American FDA approval ratings on food
    They will give the USA an effective veto on other trade deals
    They will have to accept the industry arbitration panel system that the EU told the US to go fuck itself over

    The deal will be very lop-sided in favour of the yanks, because that is the kind of deal that Trump makes. He is incapable of striking a deal where he has to compromise - it is his way or the highway. That much has been made clear over the last two and a half years.

    This isn't wild speculation. The US ambassador laid out these terms on live TV last year.
    It's always how the US have operated. It's why the EU walked away from TTIP. Pointless to talk cooperative trade terms with someone whose idea of a friendly greeting is to ask how he can sue you... literally.
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    “It’s majoritarian, the majority wins, it’s ruled by the majority for the majority – sod the minority. Whereas true democracy includes everybody’s opinion in society,” - Margaret Georgiadou, 2019 about Brexit referendum.
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  3. #20463
    Moderator Northern Goblin's Avatar
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    There's still no solution to the Irish border to even allow for a no-deal Brexit.

    There's enough legal wrangling and Parliamentary procedure that it isn't going to be a scenario, no matter what dithering bollocks Johnson spouts.


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  4. #20464
    Quote Originally Posted by Northern Goblin View Post
    There's still no solution to the Irish border to even allow for a no-deal Brexit.

    There's enough legal wrangling and Parliamentary procedure that it isn't going to be a scenario, no matter what dithering bollocks Johnson spouts.
    No-deal is the default state. It will happen, whether or not they have a solution. Worst case, the UK instigating this forces the EU to erect borders. Effectively, the UK would break the GFA for good.

    As for their procedures... considering that pretty much their first act in this extension was to go on vacation... and now they're stunned by the PM selection process... man, you've got like three months left, of what were originally 6 months. I wouldn't count on anything useful happening in Westminster.
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    “It’s majoritarian, the majority wins, it’s ruled by the majority for the majority – sod the minority. Whereas true democracy includes everybody’s opinion in society,” - Margaret Georgiadou, 2019 about Brexit referendum.
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  5. #20465
    Well I for one hope that the UK will leave ASAP. Listening to Farrages delusional british nonsense in the EU parlement is a waste of time for the other member states.

    Cut the cord and let the americans take their 51st state.

  6. #20466
    Herald of the Titans dribbles's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Crispin View Post
    Well I for one hope that the UK will leave ASAP. Listening to Farrages delusional british nonsense in the EU parlement is a waste of time for the other member states.

    Cut the cord and let the americans take their 51st state.
    Awww you could have posted his latest classic today.

    Napoleon, communism, EU defence army, destruction of the nation state - it's got it all, go on eurochums spend 2 minutes and educate yourselves, watch our Nigel tell it how it is. Being the 51st state looks the better option don't you think?


  7. #20467
    Quote Originally Posted by Crispin View Post
    Cut the cord and let the americans take their 51st state.
    Why would they do that?

    Standard procedure is to keep new territories as colonies for at least a few decades.

  8. #20468
    The likely first place loser in the upcoming leadership election has released this catchy ditty in an effort to catch BoJo


  9. #20469
    Moderator Northern Goblin's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Slant View Post
    No-deal is the default state. It will happen, whether or not they have a solution. Worst case, the UK instigating this forces the EU to erect borders. Effectively, the UK would break the GFA for good.

    As for their procedures... considering that pretty much their first act in this extension was to go on vacation... and now they're stunned by the PM selection process... man, you've got like three months left, of what were originally 6 months. I wouldn't count on anything useful happening in Westminster.
    In that scenario you'll see an emergency revoke happen before hitting default.

    The fact they can't resolve it, and breaking the GFA is complete political suicide, means that even to brexiteers in the Conservatives, cancelling A50 even under the guise of "we'll try again later" is preferable to bringing back the IRA.


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  10. #20470
    Quote Originally Posted by Northern Goblin View Post
    In that scenario you'll see an emergency revoke happen before hitting default.

    The fact they can't resolve it, and breaking the GFA is complete political suicide, means that even to brexiteers in the Conservatives, cancelling A50 even under the guise of "we'll try again later" is preferable to bringing back the IRA.
    I highly doubt that A50 will be revoked without a GE or ref. and even those circumstances it is nowhere near a certainty that a pro-EU government would be elected or that remain would win another ref.

  11. #20471
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    Quote Originally Posted by Northern Goblin View Post
    In that scenario you'll see an emergency revoke happen before hitting default.

    The fact they can't resolve it, and breaking the GFA is complete political suicide, means that even to brexiteers in the Conservatives, cancelling A50 even under the guise of "we'll try again later" is preferable to bringing back the IRA.
    Is it though? The impression I've gotten from people like Farage and the Brexit party is that they'd be absolutely fine with the IRA and the Troubles returning if it meant they got their way. There seems to be a persistent hope that at some point, someone sane is going to step up and say "Hey, this needs to be taken seriously and done right" but the time for that is long long past already. The concept of 'political suicide' only means anything if the people involved have any political goals beyond 'cash in on the chaos they caused and run with the money'.

  12. #20472
    Moderator Northern Goblin's Avatar
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    That's because Farage and the BrP have absolutely nothing to lose, and continue to be nothing more than all talk blaggards who lack any sense of responsibility.

    When the choices are revoke, a breakup of the union or a return of a long hated terrorist organisation that the public thought were long gone, revoke is the least worse option of the three.

    The problem is the Conservatives know they're fucked, regardless of the path they take. They cannot survive any of the above, because all three are unforgivable in the eyes of large swarthes of the country.

    So they kick the can down the road for as long as the other 27 let them, but they're also being challenged from within by constant legal and parliamantarian battles that make no deal harder to accept.

    Were they ever forced to make a decision, calling the whole thing off is the only way they might recover after a few more decades in the wilderness.


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  13. #20473
    Quote Originally Posted by Northern Goblin View Post
    In that scenario you'll see an emergency revoke happen before hitting default.

    The fact they can't resolve it, and breaking the GFA is complete political suicide, means that even to brexiteers in the Conservatives, cancelling A50 even under the guise of "we'll try again later" is preferable to bringing back the IRA.
    We'll see. I have very little faith in anything concerning the British political class at the moment.
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  14. #20474
    Moderator Northern Goblin's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Slant View Post
    We'll see. I have very little faith in anything concerning the British political class at the moment.
    To be fair there are plenty of politicians who are pushing for remain, much like there are members of the public.

    It's unfair to tar them all with the same brush.


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  15. #20475
    Quote Originally Posted by Northern Goblin View Post
    That's because Farage and the BrP have absolutely nothing to lose, and continue to be nothing more than all talk blaggards who lack any sense of responsibility.

    When the choices are revoke, a breakup of the union or a return of a long hated terrorist organisation that the public thought were long gone, revoke is the least worse option of the three.

    The problem is the Conservatives know they're fucked, regardless of the path they take. They cannot survive any of the above, because all three are unforgivable in the eyes of large swarthes of the country.

    So they kick the can down the road for as long as the other 27 let them, but they're also being challenged from within by constant legal and parliamantarian battles that make no deal harder to accept.

    Were they ever forced to make a decision, calling the whole thing off is the only way they might recover after a few more decades in the wilderness.
    You're more optimistic than I am.

    Conservative party members believe the following:



    These are the people busily casting their votes for BJ. They are blinded by their hatred of the EU. And these are the people calling the shots at the moment. I do not think the momentum is with remainers / the remain parties.

    Despite there being a majority in parliament opposed to no deal, there is still no majority for anything else. This is what is tragic about this awful leadership contest. The EU grants us more time to come to sort of compromise - then the Tories waste this time conducting a change of leader that will do absolutely nothing to address the fundamental problems.

    It would not surprise me in the least if the UK no deals by accident / default / BJ forcing it through via some archaic parliamentary process.
    Last edited by LeGin Tufnel; 2019-07-16 at 04:27 PM.

  16. #20476
    Moderator Northern Goblin's Avatar
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    There's a difference between the 124,000 card carrying members of the party and the 13.6m people who voted conservative at the last GE, and that's notwithstanding the margin of error over such a small sample size.


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  17. #20477
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    Quote Originally Posted by Slant View Post
    We'll see. I have very little faith in anything concerning the British political class at the moment.
    UK may stumble into "no deal" by sheer incompetence and stubborness as they cannot revoke without some preparations.
    AFAIK the invoking required a vote by Commons, so revoking should be the same procedure and if PM Johnon is just not in the mood to table such a motion, Commons may run out of time to orchestrate it themselves.

  18. #20478
    Quote Originally Posted by Northern Goblin View Post
    There's a difference between the 124,000 card carrying members of the party and the 13.6m people who voted conservative at the last GE, and that's notwithstanding the margin of error over such a small sample size.
    Yep, but it’s not the 13.6m people who are electing Boris, it’s the 124,000. And they are in the driving seat and electing a PM who is suggesting the following. Reuters just now:

    https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-br...-idUKKCN1UB1QQ

    By scheduling Queens Speech for early November / late October parliament is prorogued for two weeks prior. Parliament will not be able to stop no deal. Sterling has fallen to its lowest since April 2017.

    I’m not sure how you see parliament stopping this if Boris plus a core of hard leavers in his new cabinet really put their minds to it.

  19. #20479
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    EU found its new commission president now, by a small majority in EU parliament.
    Ursula von der Leyen will have to talk with Boris, comes november. and nobody envies her....

  20. #20480
    Quote Originally Posted by dribbles View Post
    Awww you could have posted his latest classic today.

    Napoleon, communism, EU defence army, destruction of the nation state - it's got it all, go on eurochums spend 2 minutes and educate yourselves, watch our Nigel tell it how it is. Being the 51st state looks the better option don't you think?

    Nice edit ... you are missing the part where most of the EP laughed at Farage's ridiculous claims. Her reply to him was quite priceless too.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by ranzino View Post
    EU found its new commission president now, by a small majority in EU parliament.
    Ursula von der Leyen will have to talk with Boris, comes november. and nobody envies her....
    Boris will be talking to other Council Members. She can just tell him where Barnier's office is.
    Last edited by Demolitia; 2019-07-16 at 06:24 PM.

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