View Poll Results: 10 days left, what'll it be?

Voters
92. You may not vote on this poll
  • Hard Brexit (crash out)

    45 48.91%
  • No Brexit (Remain by revoking A50)

    24 26.09%
  • Withdrawal Agreement (after a new session is called)

    0 0%
  • Extension + Withdrawal Agreement

    3 3.26%
  • Extension + Crashout

    9 9.78%
  • Extension + Remain

    11 11.96%
  1. #22021
    Quote Originally Posted by Nymrohd View Post
    Again, I was simply discussing a tangent about how the prospect of a united Ireland in the future is not exactly a solution and that violence would likely intensify just as much from Unification as it would from the GFA collapsing.

    I am sorry if people feel that I was saying that a return to violence in Ireland was OK. What I was saying is that a return to violence in Ireland is a lesser evil than sacrificing the Single Market to preserve the GFA.

    And are citizens of Northern Ireland not going to remain EU citizens anyway? They are entitled to dual citizenship to the RoI. So the possible return of the Troubles very much is an EU issue given that it affects EU citizens directly.
    I'll say it if you won't. As far as the EU is concerned, inner conflict in a third country is an acceptable price for the EU staying intact and being able to police its outer border. Especially when it's self-inflicted and part of the democratic will of said third country.

    There is absolutely no doubt that everyone in the EU and me wish there wasn't people going to be hurt or dying, but yes, we are absolutely taking THAT over the destruction of thet best fucking thing that happened in Europe in the past 2000 years. Yes, the EU, not the magna charta. Deal with it. PEACE in Europe is more important than peace in Northern Ireland. No, I won't even apologize one bit for saying that. The UK needs to set their priorities straight. They are NOT that important anymore. The British Empire is DEAD. Brexiteers wanted out, the UK will be out in about 2 months. And they need to learn to solve they problems on their own really fucking fast.
    Last edited by Slant; 2019-08-29 at 07:44 AM.
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  2. #22022
    Quote Originally Posted by Slant View Post
    That's a solution, sure.
    I am not really sure that a lose-lose scenario of NI becoming a separate state from both the RoI and the UK is a solution but I guess in that case, neither side will be able to make claims they are disenfranchised and maybe their "political" class will actually be forced to accept some responsibility and sit in fucking parliament.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Slant View Post
    I'll say it if you won't. As far as the EU is concerned, inner conflict in a third country is an acceptable price for the EU staying intact and being able to police its outer border. Especially when it's self-inflicted and part of the democratic will of said third country.
    But is it a third country? A significant number of citizens of NI have dual citizenship with the RoI and are thus EU citizens. So the Troubles will directly affect the communities of EU citizens.
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  3. #22023
    Quote Originally Posted by Nymrohd View Post
    I am not really sure that a lose-lose scenario of NI becoming a separate state from both the RoI and the UK is a solution but I guess in that case, neither side will be able to make claims they are disenfranchised and maybe their "political" class will actually be forced to accept some responsibility and sit in fucking parliament.

    - - - Updated - - -

    But is it a third country? A significant number of citizens of NI have dual citizenship with the RoI and are thus EU citizens. So the Troubles will directly affect the communities of EU citizens.
    The UK will be a third country. Yes. We have dual citizenships with Turkey, the US and a metric ton of other countries. Doesn't make them part of the EU, either. So what's your point? The legality on this is very, very clear.

    And Northern Ireland declaring itself independent and rejoining the EU (which I assume is a given, just like with Scotland) absolutely would solve the problem from our perspective. Part of the reason why we're having this discussion is because to the UK, the integrity of the United Kingdom is just as sacro-sanct as the integrity of the EU is to us.

    Take that away by the UK breaking up all on its own and you don't have the logical paradox anymore. Can just align NI with EU rules like the original plan was as a quick fix. Extend the backstop to the Irish channel, which was the first plan we came up with.
    Last edited by Slant; 2019-08-29 at 07:57 AM.
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    “It’s majoritarian, the majority wins, it’s ruled by the majority for the majority – sod the minority. Whereas true democracy includes everybody’s opinion in society,” - Margaret Georgiadou, 2019 about Brexit referendum.
    PSA: Being a volunteer is no excuse to make a shite job of it.

  4. #22024
    Quote Originally Posted by Slant View Post
    And Northern Ireland declaring itself independent and rejoining the EU (which I assume is a given, just like with Scotland) absolutely would solve the problem.
    I don't think the GFA covers independence, only reunification. And the entire premise of this tangent from me was that any scenario other than the GFA standing and NI staying as it is would also be likely to trigger the Troubles, only with loyalist paramilitaries as the initial aggressors instead of the republican ones.
    And I am really not certain that Scotland sacrificing free trade with the UK is a fair trade for them to be part of the EU. Unless the EU has a decent FTA with the UK, Scottish independence would likely be catastrophic to their economy. The numbers were questionable when both the UK and an independent Scotland were both within the EU and thus could keep on business as usual, it would not be nearly as simple with a post Brexit UK.
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  5. #22025
    The Insane Jessicka's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cantworth1 View Post
    The loyalist paramilitaries were a) mostly reactive, b) extremely incompetent, c) closer to common criminals than terrorism. They are neither organized not intelligent enough to fight a post-unification battle and did not in EIRE.
    You missed the part where they were organised and armed by UK security forces. Obviously under unification, they wouldn't get that.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Cantworth1 View Post
    *Facepalm* For those who actually care about this issue:

    The IRA and ETA worked very closely together. They bought weapons, shared safe houses, trained together, supported each other's political wings. The IRA sold ETA two surface to air missiles that ETA intended to use to bring down the Spanish president's plane. Their co-operation is a major part of the reason why we have transnational co-operation on fighting terrorism: terrorism spreads like a virus across borders.

    Anti-imperialist terrorists worked together across Europe and generally speaking much more closely than, say, different franchises of ISIS, do internationally.
    The biggest impact on the IRA was Clinton banning their "private" funding from the USA.

  6. #22026
    Quote Originally Posted by Nymrohd View Post
    The real issues imo will be legal and those will be a huge headache for the EU considering how many contracts international contracts are signed under UK law.
    And then there will be customer data which is saved in the UK and which will pass into a third country without crossing the border.
    So, thechnically, we should urgently pass a law that makes it illegal to store any European customer data in the UK just before Brexit.

  7. #22027
    Ruth Davidson, in her resignation conference, is suggesting that the Queen's Speech and a new session of Parliament could allow the government to bring back the, three times voted down, withdrawal agreement and is urging those who want to avoid no-deal to vote it through!

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Jessicka View Post
    The biggest impact on the IRA was Clinton banning their "private" funding from the USA.
    This is a good point (and serves to highlight just how complex the situation in Ireland is/was) the IRA held on to their weapons after the GFA was signed and it is was not until the US cracked down on funding that they gave them up.

  8. #22028
    Quote Originally Posted by Nymrohd View Post
    I don't think the GFA covers independence, only reunification. And the entire premise of this tangent from me was that any scenario other than the GFA standing and NI staying as it is would also be likely to trigger the Troubles, only with loyalist paramilitaries as the initial aggressors instead of the republican ones.
    And I am really not certain that Scotland sacrificing free trade with the UK is a fair trade for them to be part of the EU. Unless the EU has a decent FTA with the UK, Scottish independence would likely be catastrophic to their economy. The numbers were questionable when both the UK and an independent Scotland were both within the EU and thus could keep on business as usual, it would not be nearly as simple with a post Brexit UK.
    Well, the dude I was responding to talked about Independence. It isn't covered in the GFA, but if Scotland can be independent, I don't see why NI and Wales can't split.

    I can't comment on Scotland, they seem to think they can make it. Apart from that, why is Scotland not allowed to make a stupid decision? Why do we only let the guys in London be sovereign?
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    “It’s majoritarian, the majority wins, it’s ruled by the majority for the majority – sod the minority. Whereas true democracy includes everybody’s opinion in society,” - Margaret Georgiadou, 2019 about Brexit referendum.
    PSA: Being a volunteer is no excuse to make a shite job of it.

  9. #22029
    The Unstoppable Force Mayhem's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pann View Post
    Oh, FFS. Please stop. AEO status has nothing to do with, well, anything you've mentioned.
    AEO?

    AEO registrations up to Feb 2017:

    UK: 537
    Germany: 6031

    AEO registration up to Jan 2019:

    UK: 679
    Germany: 6330

    Let's not pretend British companies are well prepared.
    Quote Originally Posted by ash
    So, look um, I'm not a grief counselor, but if it's any consolation, I have had to kill and bury loved ones before.

    A bunch of times actually.

  10. #22030
    'Understand members of the Lords have been told to prepare for all night sittings next week - in expectation they will be discussing legislation to block no deal.'

    https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/s...43679741251584

    Could be interesting but I see little point to blocking no-deal unless they are actually going to do something this time.

  11. #22031
    Quote Originally Posted by Pann View Post
    'Understand members of the Lords have been told to prepare for all night sittings next week - in expectation they will be discussing legislation to block no deal.'

    https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/s...43679741251584

    Could be interesting but I see little point to blocking no-deal unless they are actually going to do something this time.
    “Depend upon it, sir, when a man knows he is to be hanged in a fortnight, it concentrates his mind wonderfully.”

    - Samuel Johnson

  12. #22032
    Quote Originally Posted by Flarelaine View Post
    “Depend upon it, sir, when a man knows he is to be hanged in a fortnight, it concentrates his mind wonderfully.”

    - Samuel Johnson
    Let's hope cause Rees-Mogg is right
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-b...KCN1VJ0JX?il=0
    “One, is to change the government and the other is to change the law. If they do either of those that will then have an effect.

    “If they don’t have either the courage or the gumption to do either of those then we will leave on the 31st of October in accordance with the referendum result.”
    May should have probably done the same.


    But realistically, say they do a Vote of No Confidence and have a new GE.
    Wouldn't the Tories win that GE?
    Last edited by Nymrohd; 2019-08-29 at 01:34 PM.
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  13. #22033
    Herald of the Titans dribbles's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nymrohd View Post
    Let's hope cause Rees-Mogg is right
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-b...KCN1VJ0JX?il=0


    May should have probably done the same.
    Change the government? Sounds like a good idea. General Election on Nov 1st anyone? Westminster voting intention...

    CON: 34% (+1)
    LAB: 22% (+1)
    LDEM: 17% (-2)
    BREX: 13% (-1)
    GRN: 8% (+1)

    via @YouGov, 27 - 28
    Chgs. w/ 23 Aug


    https://twitter.com/britainelects/st...55993910800384

    So do the remainers in parliament have the gumption to call that VONC next week?

  14. #22034
    Quote Originally Posted by Flarelaine View Post
    “Depend upon it, sir, when a man knows he is to be hanged in a fortnight, it concentrates his mind wonderfully.”

    - Samuel Johnson
    Yeah, I'm not sure that is applicable in this instance.

    The upcoming Brexit deadline is the third. It is a waste of everyone's time to request another extension and then do nothing once again - if they are going to request an extension they need to act (and accept that the public might necessarily feel the same way) and not just put things off for another few months or get behind Johnson (and hopefully get a deal).

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Lord Dribbles View Post
    Change the government? Sounds like a good idea. General Election on Nov 1st anyone? Westminster voting intention...

    CON: 34% (+1)
    LAB: 22% (+1)
    LDEM: 17% (-2)
    BREX: 13% (-1)
    GRN: 8% (+1)

    via @YouGov, 27 - 28
    Chgs. w/ 23 Aug


    https://twitter.com/britainelects/st...55993910800384

    So do the remainers in parliament have the gumption to call that VONC next week?
    Ruth Davidson's resignation has potentially weakened the Cons prospects in a GE.

  15. #22035
    Quote Originally Posted by Pann View Post
    Yeah, I'm not sure that is applicable in this instance.

    The upcoming Brexit deadline is the third. It is a waste of everyone's time to request another extension and then do nothing once again - if they are going to request an extension they need to act (and accept that the public might necessarily feel the same way) and not just put things off for another few months or get behind Johnson (and hopefully get a deal).
    I mostly agree. BoJo is a committed Leaver, so they would have to solve Brexit for good; getting an extension and leaving him in charge has no point. Having said that, if enough people are truly desparate, we might see a surprise. I do not expect to, but hey.

  16. #22036
    Herald of the Titans dribbles's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pann View Post
    Ruth Davidson's resignation has potentially weakened the Cons prospects in a GE.
    I don't see how her desire to spend more time with her family, nothing to do with brexit, can do anything but help the party of family values in the UK.

    Fair play to her.

  17. #22037
    Quote Originally Posted by Lord Dribbles View Post
    Change the government? Sounds like a good idea. General Election on Nov 1st anyone? Westminster voting intention...

    CON: 34% (+1)
    LAB: 22% (+1)
    LDEM: 17% (-2)
    BREX: 13% (-1)
    GRN: 8% (+1)

    via @YouGov, 27 - 28
    Chgs. w/ 23 Aug


    https://twitter.com/britainelects/st...55993910800384

    So do the remainers in parliament have the gumption to call that VONC next week?
    42% of the vote ended with a hung parliament in 2017. Do you really fancy your chances of getting any sort of majority with 34% of the vote? And bear in mind that some of the Tories elected with that will STILL be against no-deal. Sure, the Brexit party are showing as 13%, but you can't rely on that turning into many votes in FPTP. They may get a handful. No guarantee that if the Brexit party drops out in some kind of stitch up, that those votes will all end up with the Tories anyway.

    All the parties opposed to no-deal would be above 50%, once you include the Scottish and Welsh parties. That is a rock solid mandate to ensure that can't happen, based on the 2016 referendum. Or are you changing the rules again, since they don't suit you?

    It is amusing to me that your expectations are now so low that a poll that is this...well, "meh"....can get you so excited.
    When challenging a Kzin, a simple scream of rage is sufficient. You scream and you leap.

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  18. #22038
    Quote Originally Posted by Huehuecoyotl View Post
    42% of the vote ended with a hung parliament in 2017. Do you really fancy your chances of getting any sort of majority with 34% of the vote? And bear in mind that some of the Tories elected with that will STILL be against no-deal. Sure, the Brexit party are showing as 13%, but you can't rely on that turning into many votes in FPTP. They may get a handful. No guarantee that if the Brexit party drops out in some kind of stitch up, that those votes will all end up with the Tories anyway.

    All the parties opposed to no-deal would be above 50%, once you include the Scottish and Welsh parties. That is a rock solid mandate to ensure that can't happen, based on the 2016 referendum. Or are you changing the rules again, since they don't suit you?

    It is amusing to me that your expectations are now so low that a poll that is this...well, "meh"....can get you so excited.
    34+13 you mean. They would easily form a coalition with BXP.

    And really it makes absolute sense for the Tories to win. BoJo provides a clear message and the closer things comes to elections, strategic voting will squeeze BXP even tighter. Meanwhile the ambiguity over Labour's position over Brexit will split the Remainer vote (and general policy already has with Labour being unable to hold both middle class and working class voters as it used to).
    The GE is not a referendum on Brexit so it doesn't change anything about the previous results, only a new referendum would do that. Beyond that, the electoral map heavily favors Brexit because Remainers are concentrated on few constituencies.

    In all honesty, Labour's best option is to have a new GE shortly after Brexit when the shock will be fresh. Imo at this point your best bet (for Remainers) is to hope that there is no GE until a few weeks into Brexit, that Corbyn wins that GE and that the coalition he will require to govern forces him to sign the WA (or even the WA augmented with Customs Union membership). Remaining seems improbably outside ONE scenario, the Parliament voting to revoke A50.
    Last edited by Nymrohd; 2019-08-29 at 02:28 PM.
    Hail Lilith and see you in Hell!

  19. #22039
    Quote Originally Posted by Nymrohd View Post
    34+13 you mean. They would easily form a coalition with BXP.
    Not with FPTP. Their vote is so evenly spread that 13% would probably only result in 20 or 30 seats. I'm sure someone has done some analysis of this, but it is likely to be very low. The Libs got 12 seats for 7.4% of the vote in 2017.

    They wouldn't get close to a majority with those numbers. Especially if the polling proves to be as inaccurate as it was last time.
    When challenging a Kzin, a simple scream of rage is sufficient. You scream and you leap.

    Quote Originally Posted by George Carlin
    Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that.
    Brexophilia: The act of rubbing yourself against dead political ideas for sexual pleasure.

  20. #22040
    Quote Originally Posted by Huehuecoyotl View Post
    Not with FPTP. Their vote is so evenly spread that 13% would probably only result in 20 or 30 seats. I'm sure someone has done some analysis of this, but it is likely to be very low. The Libs got 12 seats for 7.4% of the vote in 2017.

    They wouldn't get close to a majority with those numbers. Especially if the polling proves to be as inaccurate as it was last time.
    The Tories might well get a majority with those numbers though because of how awful Labour is polling.

    - - - Updated - - -

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.ne...mes_190816.pdf
    So it seems the least divisive option by far is for the UK to leave in name only and stay in the SM and CU (so pretty much pursue an EFTA membership or something similar). Even among Leave voters it is acceptable by 42% against 43% that find it unacceptable (and about 40% of those 43% only find that a fairly instead of a very bad outcome). Which actually shows me that a decent solution does exist.
    Last edited by Nymrohd; 2019-08-29 at 02:42 PM.
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