View Poll Results: 10 days left, what'll it be?

Voters
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  • Hard Brexit (crash out)

    45 48.91%
  • No Brexit (Remain by revoking A50)

    24 26.09%
  • Withdrawal Agreement (after a new session is called)

    0 0%
  • Extension + Withdrawal Agreement

    3 3.26%
  • Extension + Crashout

    9 9.78%
  • Extension + Remain

    11 11.96%
  1. #23261
    Quote Originally Posted by mojojojo202 View Post
    And the status quo had little to nothing to do with the EU.

    That is of course the greatest irony of Brexit. None of this even comes close to solving any of the oft-quoted problems working people in the UK.
    Of course it doesn't. But angry middle and working class voters don't care.

    _____

    I want to present a scenario to you all. Boris Johnson arrives at the Council on Oct. 17. There he faces a united front that gives him the original EU deal; a border in the Irish Sea and a separate status for Northern Ireland and in return the full withdrawal of the backstop. What are the chances he brings that back for a vote? And what are the chances that Remainers vote for it?

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Slant View Post
    I share this sentiment, especially about the SNP. It's the one nationalist party in Europe that seems to behave decently and has a strong case and makes it without hyperbole or unreasonable claims. And yes, when he says Scotland's voice is ignored, we just have to watch the Commons to confirm that.
    I mean, I am still not convinced that Scotland can split from the UK and not have serious economic trouble. The case can be made but it is not a strong case. One thing that the SNP's electoral position makes clear to me is this though; England needs its own devolved parliament apart from Westminster. A federalized UK where each of the component nations had a similar structure would work far better (and stink far less of colonialism) than what they have now.
    Hail Lilith and see you in Hell!

  2. #23262
    Quote Originally Posted by Skroe View Post
    Parliament is going to be far smaller without Bercow.
    You may appreciate today's cartoon from The Times.


  3. #23263
    Quote Originally Posted by Nymrohd View Post
    I want to present a scenario to you all. Boris Johnson arrives at the Council on Oct. 17. There he faces a united front that gives him the original EU deal; a border in the Irish Sea and a separate status for Northern Ireland and in return the full withdrawal of the backstop. What are the chances he brings that back for a vote? And what are the chances that Remainers vote for it?
    I think that is the direction we're headed anyway (not sure about the backstop bit though) so I think that there is a good chance that or a variation of it will be what he will present to parliament.

    The chances of remainers voting for it? I'd say; absolutely none (although he may well have got his election and a majority by then so it won't matter).

    And this is my biggest issue with the remainers in parliament they will stand in the way of anything Brexit but they don't have the guts to stand up directly against it and in the end all they achieve is more uncertainty.

  4. #23264
    The Insane Jessicka's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pann View Post
    I think that is the direction we're headed anyway (not sure about the backstop bit though) so I think that there is a good chance that or a variation of it will be what he will present to parliament.

    The chances of remainers voting for it? I'd say; absolutely none (although he may well have got his election and a majority by then so it won't matter).

    And this is my biggest issue with the remainers in parliament they will stand in the way of anything Brexit but they don't have the guts to stand up directly against it and in the end all they achieve is more uncertainty.
    That deal is a reunify Ireland deal, absolutely nobody would vote for that, except maybe Sinn Fein but they don’t sit. What it does show is how horrendously weak our hand is outside of the EU. That’s the kind of offer that even Protestant Unionist would vote for reunification over.

    Maybe these are the kinds of truths that need to be out.

    Honestly the only response to such a deal is full nuclear kick Boris out form a new government and revoke. The more likely scenario would asking for an extension and referendum on that deal.

    Either way, Boris wouldn’t be PM anymore. Most Tories would not sacrifice the Union, I don’t even think the DUP would be necessary to persuade them of that.

    Project fear is only project fear until it’s project reality.
    Last edited by Jessicka; 2019-09-10 at 04:46 PM.

  5. #23265
    Void Lord Elegiac's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jessicka View Post
    It's not a crisis. Parliament wasn't paralysed, it was acting and finding ways through the whole time, and will continue to do so.

    All the talk of paralysis and obstruction and shit is exactly the kind of bullshit dictators pull to try to bypass it. We won't allow that to happen.
    Watch parliament "find ways through" right into the UK crashing out.

    When will you get the message that the actions of the past series of British ministries have completely destroyed any illusions of British government being something to aspire towards, and that the rest of the world is already focused on a future with the assumption that Britain...or should I say, England...is a factor only insofar as its nuisance value? Do you honestly think anyone outside of the British political class still says "Westminster" with any degree of reverence? It's much as the eponymous palace was prior to the last time it burned down; a pretty facade concealing a mess of medieval warrens and so much a firetrap that you're honestly surprised it didn't burn down sooner.

    The fact you keep repeating "it's not a crisis" is fairly telling as to there being a portion of the British public who don't seem to grasp the seriousness of the situation. This isn't just an existential threat to relations with the EU, the integrity of the UK itself is being compromised. Are you still going to be crowing about Britain's centuries of political experience as the last of England's colonies (i.e Scotland, NI) peel away and the mother of parliaments is left governing nothing more than half an impoverished island on the edge of the known world?

    There has never been a situation like this in British history and continuing to insist that this is just business as usual does nobody any favors. Well, except the people who stand to profit from no deal.

    @Skroe back me up here, I'm not good at American exceptionalism and I think I might need to appeal across the pond for help.
    Last edited by Elegiac; 2019-09-10 at 04:52 PM.
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  6. #23266
    Quote Originally Posted by Jessicka View Post
    That deal is a reunify Ireland deal, absolutely nobody would vote for that, except maybe Sinn Fein but they don’t sit. What it does show is how horrendously weak our hand is outside of the EU. That’s the kind of offer that even Protestant Unionist would vote for reunification over.

    Maybe these are the kinds of truths that need to be out.

    Honestly the only response to such a deal is full nuclear kick Boris out form a new government and revoke. The more likely scenario would asking for an extension and referendum on that deal.

    Either way, Boris wouldn’t be PM anymore. Most Tories would not sacrifice the Union, I don’t even think the DUP would be necessary to persuade them of that.

    Project fear is only project fear until it’s project reality.
    No, it wouldn't. Don't be ridiculous! It would be politically difficult but it is not without support in NI - https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/n...-38414210.html

    It is far easier to make a seamless border in the sea than it is on land but the big question is can it seamless enough for the Unionists and the GFA.

    There is widely publicised polling data which directly contradicts your assertion that the Tories would not sacrifice NI for Brexit.


  7. #23267
    Quote Originally Posted by Nymrohd View Post
    I mean, I am still not convinced that Scotland can split from the UK and not have serious economic trouble. The case can be made but it is not a strong case. One thing that the SNP's electoral position makes clear to me is this though; England needs its own devolved parliament apart from Westminster. A federalized UK where each of the component nations had a similar structure would work far better (and stink far less of colonialism) than what they have now.
    Oh, absolutely. It is in no way certain that Scotland will be better off. But at least in their case, they actually have a case about independence. Having the UK harp on about independence seems like an insult when there's Scotland right in the Commons and ignored for the most part.
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  8. #23268
    Void Lord Elegiac's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Slant View Post
    Oh, absolutely. It is in no way certain that Scotland will be better off. But at least in their case, they actually have a case about independence. Having the UK harp on about independence seems like an insult when there's Scotland right in the Commons and ignored for the most part.
    Moreover, Scotland hasn't spent the past three and a half years burning every diplomatic bridge. There's every reason for the EU and the US to want an independent Scotland to flourish.
    Last edited by Elegiac; 2019-09-10 at 05:53 PM.
    Quote Originally Posted by White America View Post
    I have no obligation to condemn racists. You ideologues on the other hand, are an actual problem.

  9. #23269
    Quote Originally Posted by Slant View Post
    Oh, absolutely. It is in no way certain that Scotland will be better off. But at least in their case, they actually have a case about independence. Having the UK harp on about independence seems like an insult when there's Scotland right in the Commons and ignored for the most part.
    Problem for Scotland isn't that it is ignored. It's that it's an area of Britain with small population. It should be treated as such no more special than an area of England with similar population numbers. (Scotland, Wales, N.Ireland have similar population combined as London for comparison sake)

  10. #23270
    The Insane Jessicka's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Elegiac View Post
    Watch parliament "find ways through" right into the UK crashing out.

    When will you get the message that the actions of the past series of British ministries have completely destroyed any illusions of British government being something to aspire towards, and that the rest of the world is already focused on a future with the assumption that Britain...or should I say, England...is a factor only insofar as its nuisance value? Do you honestly think anyone outside of the British political class still says "Westminster" with any degree of reverence? It's much as the eponymous palace was prior to the last time it burned down; a pretty facade concealing a mess of medieval warrens and so much a firetrap that you're honestly surprised it didn't burn down sooner.

    The fact you keep repeating "it's not a crisis" is fairly telling as to there being a portion of the British public who don't seem to grasp the seriousness of the situation. This isn't just an existential threat to relations with the EU, the integrity of the UK itself is being compromised. Are you still going to be crowing about Britain's centuries of political experience as the last of England's colonies (i.e Scotland, NI) peel away and the mother of parliaments is left governing nothing more than half an impoverished island on the edge of the known world?

    There has never been a situation like this in British history and continuing to insist that this is just business as usual does nobody any favors. Well, except the people who stand to profit from no deal.

    @Skroe back me up here, I'm not good at American exceptionalism and I think I might need to appeal across the pond for help.
    The catastrophilia is strong in this one.

    No deal won't happen. Not as long as Revoke is an option. There's a very considerable and clear parliamentary majority to stop it.

    Quote Originally Posted by Pann View Post
    No, it wouldn't. Don't be ridiculous! It would be politically difficult but it is not without support in NI - https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/n...-38414210.html

    It is far easier to make a seamless border in the sea than it is on land but the big question is can it seamless enough for the Unionists and the GFA.

    There is widely publicised polling data which directly contradicts your assertion that the Tories would not sacrifice NI for Brexit.
    This is a poll of membership, not the Parliamentary party or voting pubic. Worth noting that that membership has seen significant entryism in the past 12 months from members of the far right, ex-UKIP type. They also make up about 150,000 people.

    Conservative voters on the other hand are much more important, and generally lean more toward One Nation Conservatism, and I doubt they'd sacrifice NI for a Brexit they don't want that badly.

  11. #23271
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nymrohd View Post
    I mean, I am still not convinced that Scotland can split from the UK and not have serious economic trouble. The case can be made but it is not a strong case
    Depends on the case.

    I mean, Scotland is better off economically in the UK than it would be outside the UK, even some of the most hardcore proponents of independence have to admit that. However, the spanner that Brexit throws into that works is that if the UK leaves the EU it would then be in Scotland's economic interests to leave the UK and rejoin the EU (as it would then be better off economically than it would have been staying in the UK).

  12. #23272
    Quote Originally Posted by Jessicka View Post
    This is a poll of membership, not the Parliamentary party or voting pubic. Worth noting that that membership has seen significant entryism in the past 12 months from members of the far right, ex-UKIP type. They also make up about 150,000 people.

    Conservative voters on the other hand are much more important, and generally lean more toward One Nation Conservatism, and I doubt they'd sacrifice NI for a Brexit they don't want that badly.
    Yeah, because the Con membership is in no way similar to Con voters.

  13. #23273
    Void Lord Elegiac's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jessicka View Post
    The catastrophilia is strong in this one.

    No deal won't happen. Not as long as Revoke is an option. There's a very considerable and clear parliamentary majority to stop it.
    Again, I have absolutely zero stake in no deal happening or Britain remaining. So your assurances are pretty worthless since, as people have told you repeatedly, the rest of us have already discounted the UK owing to its conduct over the past few decades, Brexit notwithstanding.

    What the past few years in particular have shown us, however, is that most of Britain's MPs are so firmly intent on retaining their offices at all costs that they will only ever move when the costs of inaction start to threaten them personally; in so many words, they will procrastinate and kick the can as far down the road as they can muster, and in so doing ensure that when shit finally hits the fan it does so in the most dramatic and damaging fashion possible.

    You talk big game about the UK's political experience, but there are places where situations of this sort have happened before. There's a country in particular who managed to kick a highly divisive can down the road for almost a century before it nearly ripped itself apart trying to grapple with it; and in fact, still hasn't managed to fully settle the dispute in question. I'll let you guess what I'm talking about.

    So no; while you might call this business as usual, people are fully capable of recognizing a calcified political class and the costs of assuming that they have things well in hand.
    Quote Originally Posted by White America View Post
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  14. #23274
    The Insane Jessicka's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pann View Post
    Yeah, because the Con membership is in no way similar to Con voters.
    Members tend to be further from the centre than voters, that’s true of all parties.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Elegiac View Post
    Again, I have absolutely zero stake in no deal happening or Britain remaining. So your assurances are pretty worthless since, as people have told you repeatedly, the rest of us have already discounted the UK owing to its conduct over the past few decades, Brexit notwithstanding.

    What the past few years in particular have shown us, however, is that most of Britain's MPs are so firmly intent on retaining their offices at all costs that they will only ever move when the costs of inaction start to threaten them personally; in so many words, they will procrastinate and kick the can as far down the road as they can muster, and in so doing ensure that when shit finally hits the fan it does so in the most dramatic and damaging fashion possible.

    You talk big game about the UK's political experience, but there are places where situations of this sort have happened before. There's a country in particular who managed to kick a highly divisive can down the road for almost a century before it nearly ripped itself apart trying to grapple with it; and in fact, still hasn't managed to fully settle the dispute in question. I'll let you guess what I'm talking about.

    So no; while you might call this business as usual, people are fully capable of recognizing a calcified political class and the costs of assuming that they have things well in hand.
    You’re obviously unused to our system of exploring all options. There’s still 7 weeks until Brexit Day. That’s an eternity in politics.

    There is no reason to rush to nuclear options. You’re panicking while calmer heads are still working.

  15. #23275
    Quote Originally Posted by Jessicka View Post
    Members tend to be further from the centre than voters, that’s true of all parties.
    This is pointless - your's is a position of faith rather than opinion that is formed from the available and observable evidence.

    Given the choice of no-Brexit or Brexit and a border in the Irish Sea, Con Brexit supporters are not going to give up on Brexit. You can believe otherwise if you wish but I am not going to waste anymore time on the matter.

  16. #23276
    The Insane Jessicka's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pann View Post
    This is pointless - your's is a position of faith rather than opinion that is formed from the available and observable evidence.

    Given the choice of no-Brexit or Brexit and a border in the Irish Sea, Con Brexit supporters are not going to give up on Brexit. You can believe otherwise if you wish but I am not going to waste anymore time on the matter.
    There is still the EU conference in mid October. Nothing is going to change between now and then, and whole Parliament is prorogued, nothing will.

    Ultimately it doesn’t matter what the Conservative members want.

    The current facts are:
    - No deal is not an option. There’s a clear Parliamentary majority to prevent it.
    - A deal involving a border in the Irish Sea was already rejected by the Conservatives themselves. It never even got to Parliament.
    - A deal involving a backstop was rejected by the Conservatives and Parliament.
    - There’s no time for a referendum or GE before Oct 31.
    - The EU will be asked for an extension.
    - The EU meets with the UK in mid October for further negotiations.

    There’s still a lot of things to happen and a long way to go before Brexit day.

    There is absolutely no reason to panic. A lot has happened but there are still a lot of things to happen before any nuclear buttons are worth pressing.

  17. #23277
    Quote Originally Posted by Jessicka View Post
    You’re obviously unused to our system of exploring all options. There’s still 7 weeks until Brexit Day. That’s an eternity in politics.

    There is no reason to rush to nuclear options. You’re panicking while calmer heads are still working.
    No. We're 6 months past the original deadline, and towards the end of the second extension, and you're no closer to a parliamentary agreement on a solution. Your parliament and your government are not calmly exploring options. That much is clear.

  18. #23278
    Quote Originally Posted by Jessicka View Post
    There is still the EU conference in mid October. Nothing is going to change between now and then, and whole Parliament is prorogued, nothing will.

    Ultimately it doesn’t matter what the Conservative members want.

    The current facts are:
    - No deal is not an option. There’s a clear Parliamentary majority to prevent it.
    - A deal involving a border in the Irish Sea was already rejected by the Conservatives themselves. It never even got to Parliament.
    - A deal involving a backstop was rejected by the Conservatives and Parliament.
    - There’s no time for a referendum or GE before Oct 31.
    - The EU will be asked for an extension.
    - The EU meets with the UK in mid October for further negotiations.

    There’s still a lot of things to happen and a long way to go before Brexit day.

    There is absolutely no reason to panic. A lot has happened but there are still a lot of things to happen before any nuclear buttons are worth pressing.
    Seems the most likely conclusion to this mess is perpetual extension, since there is no sign that the parliament has the will to revoke and they have managed to rule out all other options
    Of course there is the chance they could grow a spine if the EU were to deny an extension though I honestly wouldn't bet much on it.

  19. #23279
    Quote Originally Posted by Jessicka View Post
    There is absolutely no reason to panic.
    The UK is costing everyone time, energy and money right now. But sure, that's fine

  20. #23280
    Quote Originally Posted by Gibblewink View Post
    Seems the most likely conclusion to this mess is perpetual extension, since there is no sign that the parliament has the will to revoke and they have managed to rule out all other options
    Of course there is the chance they could grow a spine if the EU were to deny an extension though I honestly wouldn't bet much on it.
    Without Bercow it is unlikely that parliament will have such an easy task seizing control from the government in future and it possible that there will be an election which returns a majority for Johnson meaning that parliament will not get another opportunity to request another one.

    It is now or never in terms of spine growing.

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