[EU] Brexit negotiations at a standstill

[Butler to Baby Sloths]

Yeah, this is just the agreement to figure out agreements on trade etc. It's the basis for the next decade of negotiations between the UK and the EU. That is precisely why it is so critically important to get this right and why it is absolutely correct for Parliament to demand more than 24 hours of consideration and debating time to scrutinize the advantages, disadvantages and loopholes that the legislation (which is something like 120 pages plus another ~300 of explanatory notes and clarifications) would entail, especially in consideration of the fact that the government has yet to publish the economic impact study which would normally accompany a bill such as this one.

[Huehuecoyotl]

So more money spunked up against the wall preparing for no-deal at the end of October, despite that being legally impossible. How much are we on the hook for to cover the costs of the extra ferries that we aren't going to need? How much have we wasted getting people "ready" for something that wasn't going to happen?

Tories; the party of good economic sense. Apparently.

And to make matters worse, we've disappointed dribbles. Again. But I'm sure in the little warped bubble of "reality" he lives in, he is already painting this as a win.

[Tiase]

@dribbles

Your monkey run government just can't seem to fuck out of the EU =(
Would be nice if France actually said enough is enough, but Macron will fold like a house of cards and agree to that stupid extension.

[Pannonian]

God damn it.

My fictional grandkids will watch youtube videos in the next century about how the EU works. How there are different treaties, and how the UK has been a member for 100 years, though technically been leaving for 80...

[Pann]

Fair, the same would go for any country.
Now the public will have to to choose between a vaguely sound 500 pages piece of legislation, and no deal.
One side will try to argue how reasonnable the 500 pages nobody could really fathom are. Article by article.
The other side will just spew " let's get on with it".
In your experience, who wins?

I don't think that the choice will be between the deal or no deal - for one the LDs will campaign to scrap Brexit altogether - although at present what will be offered to oppose the Cons is a little on the vague side.

You know as well as I that elections, all over the world, have been won on slogans (and with the advent of mass media - soundbites) for as long as people have been able to vote for their representative.

[Skroe]

Do British Prime Ministers really just don't believe in doing a headcount and locking down voting intention, before calling (or having for them called) a vote?

Because as amusing as it's been over the past five years, going back to Cameron and Libya, of seeing Prime Ministers faceplant by holding votes they don't know they can win... I just don't understand why they bother if all its going to do is set them back.

And props to the UK Parliament for finding an even more esoteric way of making this shit show stranger.

[dribbles]

@dribbles

Your monkey run government just can't seem to fuck out of the EU =(
Would be nice if France actually said enough is enough, but Macron will fold like a house of cards and agree to that stupid extension.

The UK have instructed the EU to give us an extension. Dare the EU refuse? We all know the answer from the EU will be " yes sir no sir three bags full sir, how long do you want?"

That EU weakness is not the fault of our government...

God damn it.

My fictional grandkids will watch youtube videos in the next century about how the EU works. How there are different treaties, and how the UK has been a member for 100 years, though technically been leaving for 80...

And UK grandkids they'll be asking "what did you do grandpa for the nation in the Brexit days to neuter the EU dictatorship?"

[Skulltaker]

And UK grandkids they'll be asking "what did you do grandpa for the nation in the Brexit days to neuter the EU dictatorship?"

"I decided to burn it to the ground. Now shut your mouth and eat your dirt."

[Tiase]

The UK have instructed the EU to give us an extension. Dare the EU refuse? We all know the answer from the EU will be " yes sir no sir three bags full sir, how long do you want?"

Trying to make the act of begging for an extension sound/look like a command xD
Oh dribs, never change. Your delusional gibberish always makes my day =)

[Xarkan]

The UK have instructed the EU to give us an extension. Dare the EU refuse? We all know the answer from the EU will be " yes sir no sir three bags full sir, how long do you want?"

That EU weakness is not the fault of our government...



And UK grandkids they'll be asking "what did you do grandpa for the nation in the Brexit days to neuter the EU dictatorship?"

Your two comments are not consistent

They are either so weak they bowi to the british will or a dictatorship, you cannot have it both ways

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Do British Prime Ministers really just don't believe in doing a headcount and locking down voting intention, before calling (or having for them called) a vote?

Because as amusing as it's been over the past five years, going back to Cameron and Libya, of seeing Prime Ministers faceplant by holding votes they don't know they can win... I just don't understand why they bother if all its going to do is set them back.

And props to the UK Parliament for finding an even more esoteric way of making this shit show stranger.

Sometimes loosing a vote in parliament can be about manipulating the public though

[Mayhem]

God damn it.

My fictional grandkids will watch youtube videos in the next century about how the EU works. How there are different treaties, and how the UK has been a member for 100 years, though technically been leaving for 80...

It's the year 2124, in Brussel, the Brexit-Ceremony is in full force, soon the British PM will ask for an extension, the EU will grant it. It's a nice tradition that draws a lot of Tourists from all over the continent. No one knows how and why this started, everyone is joyful. And on comes the farage, a troll-like creature shrieking betrayal betrayal betrayal, he gets scared away by the children.

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The UK have instructed the EU to give us an extension. Dare the EU refuse? We all know the answer from the EU will be " yes sir no sir three bags full sir, how long do you want?"

That EU weakness is not the fault of our government...

And UK grandkids they'll be asking "what did you do grandpa for the nation in the Brexit days to neuter the EU dictatorship?"

So you are choosing to leave a weak dictatorship you can direct and instruct at will?

[draykorinee]

It's the year 2124, in Brussel, the Brexit-Ceremony is in full force, soon the British PM will ask for an extension, the EU will grant it. It's a nice tradition that draws a lot of Tourists from all over the continent. No one knows how and why this started, everyone is joyful. And on comes the farage, a troll-like creature shrieking betrayal betrayal betrayal, he gets scared away by the children.

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So you are choosing to leave a weak dictatorship you can direct and instruct at will?

No no, the EU has been telling the UK what to do for decades, we've had no sovereignty because of those powerful undemocratic dictators.

[Skroe]

The UK have instructed the EU to give us an extension. Dare the EU refuse? We all know the answer from the EU will be " yes sir no sir three bags full sir, how long do you want?"

That EU weakness is not the fault of our government...



And UK grandkids they'll be asking "what did you do grandpa for the nation in the Brexit days to neuter the EU dictatorship?"

I'm looking forward to the United States instructing the UK to let US industries in on the pile of easy money you call the NHS. Dare the UK refuse? We all know the answer from the UK will be " yes sir no sir three bags full sir, is there anything else you can sell off to us?"

I bring put it in those terms because your statement is patently ridiculous. The UK is in no position to dictate terms to the EU. And its small status in the midst of a political crisis makes it the weaker partner in negotiations. It will be the same when it comes to a US-UK trade deal, which lets be clear, will not happen under Trump because Democrats don't pass his bills. The UK will be so desperate to sign any deal that makes Brexit look worth it, I expect us to be able to demand you to package up London Bridge in boxes and mail it to us.

Boris Johnson's minority government, which has won exactly one minor vote since coming to power is not in position to demand anything of anybody, and all the world sees it. A General election won't fundamentally change this calculus either.

By all means Brexit the fuck out of the EU. Just be aware, there is no "win condition" for the UK in this. The process has destroyed the country's political reputation. It is worse than our Trump wet far. It will take a generation for the UK to recover.

[Mayhem]

No no, the EU has been telling the UK what to do for decades, we've had no sovereignty because of those powerful undemocratic dictators.

The EU is schrödingers government, a strong dictatorship and weak democracy at the very same time.

[Nymrohd]

Do British Prime Ministers really just don't believe in doing a headcount and locking down voting intention, before calling (or having for them called) a vote?

Because as amusing as it's been over the past five years, going back to Cameron and Libya, of seeing Prime Ministers faceplant by holding votes they don't know they can win... I just don't understand why they bother if all its going to do is set them back.

And props to the UK Parliament for finding an even more esoteric way of making this shit show stranger.

Most of the Johnson administration so far has been about constructing the narrative that the courts and parliament are the enemy of the people and only the Johnson government still cares about democracy. It's probably very effective.

[Skroe]

Most of the Johnson administration so far has been about constructing the narrative that the courts and parliament are the enemy of the people and only the Johnson government still cares about democracy. It's probably very effective.

From that angle... sure. But while symbolic votes are certainly nothing new the US almost never - and this is not a new practice either - held votes on meaningful things unless the intention of all voters was clear. There isn't much of a surprise. McCain shooting down the Obamacare skinny repeal was extraordinary in its rarity.

And before someone screams "that's anti-democratic!"... horse shit. That's consensus building. Because it allows legislation to be changed to appeal to fence sitters, thus bringing aboard more stakeholders. Climatic up and down votes are stupid in the face of laboriously building an agreement that pulls broad groups together. That's what majority parties typically have to do, in the absence of an absolute majority and rigid party whipping.

For the UK, holding votes without locking down what people are going to vote for pre-dates Brexit by years. It's insane governing by surprise outcome counts as some kind of strategy.

There are many parliamentary models, and most of them work fabulously. But the Brexit process has annihilated the reputation of Westminster as a deliberative body. It'll take many years to recover whats been totally torched.

[Nymrohd]

For the UK, holding votes without locking down what people are going to vote for pre-dates Brexit by years. It's insane governing by surprise outcome counts as some kind of strategy.

I think when Cameron did it, it was just incompetence. Johnson is entirely doing it to built a narrative though. And yeah, the reputation of the UK political system is destroyed.

When it comes to negotiating trade deals in the future, even beyond reputation, the UK does not have the competencies in its civil service to negotiate multiple trade deals at once. Outside the EU and US, very few trade actors really do. If they try to negotiate with both the US and the EU at once, they will just be stonewalled. And for all their bluster, their industry will roast them over coal if they prioritize anything other than an EU trade deal first and that will take a decade especially considering they have burned all bridges.

[Masark]

With all the Irish business, no one was even thinking about that other border.



Though I do not find the title text convincing.

[Jessicka]

From that angle... sure. But while symbolic votes are certainly nothing new the US almost never - and this is not a new practice either - held votes on meaningful things unless the intention of all voters was clear. There isn't much of a surprise. McCain shooting down the Obamacare skinny repeal was extraordinary in its rarity.

And before someone screams "that's anti-democratic!"... horse shit. That's consensus building. Because it allows legislation to be changed to appeal to fence sitters, thus bringing aboard more stakeholders. Climatic up and down votes are stupid in the face of laboriously building an agreement that pulls broad groups together. That's what majority parties typically have to do, in the absence of an absolute majority and rigid party whipping.

For the UK, holding votes without locking down what people are going to vote for pre-dates Brexit by years. It's insane governing by surprise outcome counts as some kind of strategy.

There are many parliamentary models, and most of them work fabulously. But the Brexit process has annihilated the reputation of Westminster as a deliberative body. It'll take many years to recover whats been totally torched.

The problem here is that we're watching the sausage being made. What matters really is what comes out the other side. If, as many of us on these forums hope, we come out ultimately remaining as a consequence of Boris having to campaign on, what is really an indefensible deal to the electorate (cutting up the UK for England to leave the EU), maybe we look back on 3-4 years wasted, but ultimately the system stopping irreparable damage to the country spearheaded (I emphasise this because I know there are fringes of fringes of other parties and MPs with vested interests in strong leave seats) by what is in essence a fringe movement of the Tory party.

If Brexit happens, and it proves as catastrophic as anticipated, then sure, the system failed.

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With all the Irish business, no one was even thinking about that other border.


Though I do not find the title text convincing.

Presume this is in relation to Gibraltar?

[Nymrohd]

If Brexit happens, and it proves as catastrophic as anticipated, then sure, the system failed.

The system failed when May invoked Article 50 and almost everyone voted with the Tories even though they had presented no plan for the negotiations whatsoever. That vote showed that parliament was largely ignorant of what these negotiations would call for yet went for them anyway. That's when the system failed. It's just kept failing since then. You can pin the referendum on Cameron but the Parliament had no reason to vote for A50 before a clear plan was presented and should have demanded such instead of overwhelmingly approving May's action over a slim mandate.