View Poll Results: 10 days left, what'll it be?

Voters
92. You may not vote on this poll
  • Hard Brexit (crash out)

    45 48.91%
  • No Brexit (Remain by revoking A50)

    24 26.09%
  • Withdrawal Agreement (after a new session is called)

    0 0%
  • Extension + Withdrawal Agreement

    3 3.26%
  • Extension + Crashout

    9 9.78%
  • Extension + Remain

    11 11.96%
  1. #26121
    Quote Originally Posted by dribbles View Post
    1 in 3 of all EU car exports go to the UK. A no deal will mean duties on EU vehicle exports to the UK of up to 22%.

    Your volumes will go down not up.
    So your cars will be more expensive. TaKinG bAcK cOntr0L!

  2. #26122
    The Insane Acidbaron's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Forogil View Post
    As for car exports, it's obviously more complex: https://www.acea.be/statistics/artic...in-eu-partners
    TL;DR the uk is a small country, and thus more reliant on external trade than a large trading block, like the EU, that has a larger internal market.

    The uk was buying 12% of the EU's production quantity (and the EU is also exporting to other markets - 26%), whereas the uk's substantially smaller production was largely for export (81%) - primarily to the EU. And similarly for the suppliers. In terms of value the numbers were generally a bit smaller, as expensive cars are transported further.

    And at least 10% of the automotive workers in the uk were from the EU.
    Oh i am aware, i am just wondering how much of their car industry will remain since the demand might drop somewhat it will still needs to be compensated elsewhere and this for the BMW group would be good news for those working in plants at Germany and Netherlands. Considering i work there and while i have no fear for my job others do, so a no deal might end up being a good thing as parts will need to be moved over and production quantities can increase again, which they already are. Bit surprised mini's and BMW's picked up that quickly again but than again i never looked closely into the whole car sales business.

    I am kind of going out from a no deal scenario, since the UK has no interest in getting anything done stuck in some kind of illusion and without a trade deal of sorts parts and cars itself will become vastly more expensive. It is not like the UK has a deal ready with other export markets like in Asia or Northern America so i kind of expect that industry over there in long term to shrink significantly.

  3. #26123
    Quote Originally Posted by Acidbaron View Post
    Oh i am aware, i am just wondering how much of their car industry will remain since the demand might drop somewhat it will still needs to be compensated elsewhere and this for the BMW group would be good news for those working in plants at Germany and Netherlands.
    Likely true, as BMW will as any other car manufacturer switch export-production from the uk to EU/N. America, avoiding trade barriers.

    Some might switch some production for the uk-market to the uk (that's how car manufacturers often deal with trade barriers - some production inside the barrier) - but I doubt that they will be in a rush considering the current uncertainty and the state of industrial work in the uk in general.

    Another factor is that all major car manufacturers in the uk, except Aston Martin (the crown of the empire - seven times bankrupt), have owners elsewhere - and thus less attachment to the uk.

    Quote Originally Posted by Acidbaron View Post
    Bit surprised mini's and BMW's picked up that quickly again but than again i never looked closely into the whole car sales business.
    Me neither, I work more with the engineering side, which for the uk has been more focused on racing cars.

  4. #26124
    Herald of the Titans dribbles's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Crispin View Post
    So your cars will be more expensive. TaKinG bAcK cOntr0L!
    Our EU cars might be more expensive true, which is to be fair a little irritating at most, perhaps I'll have to buy Japanese next. But nothing to really worry about. On the other hand I agree with Holger Bingmann who said this week :- A hard Brexit would have "catastrophic consequences" for Germany's exporters.

    https://www.dw.com/en/german-busines...oss/a-50725851

    A little niggle for the UK, catastrophic for the EU. Some perspective for you eurochums.

    Quote Originally Posted by Forogil View Post
    As for car exports, it's obviously more complex: https://www.acea.be/statistics/artic...in-eu-partners
    TL;DR the uk is a small country, and thus more reliant on external trade than a large trading block, like the EU, that has a larger internal market.

    The uk was buying 12% of the EU's production quantity (and the EU is also exporting to other markets - 26%), whereas the uk's substantially smaller production was largely for export (81%) - primarily to the EU. And similarly for the suppliers. In terms of value the numbers were generally a bit smaller, as expensive cars are transported further.

    And at least 10% of the automotive workers in the uk were from the EU.
    Oooh nice site ty for that. For some balance...

    Only weeks left to save EU and UK auto sectors from €110 billion ‘no deal’ Brexit disaster

    https://www.acea.be/press-releases/a...on-no-deal-bre

    Again in the context of the EU in that article the word catastrophe appears, yet nothing but a little irritant for the UK dismissed with a shrug of the shoulders. A case of which economy relies more on car exports I guess.
    Britannia waives the rules!

  5. #26125
    Quote Originally Posted by dribbles View Post
    A little niggle for the UK, catastrophic for the EU. Some perspective for you eurochums.
    A "little niggle"? So the loss of 7% of GDP growth would be a "little niggle" in your bizarre world?

    How about electricity and gas prices going up? Does that sound either small or minor to you?

    Or maybe a £1000 per capita reduction in income. That sounds a bit more than a tiny inconvience to me.

    You are on your own thinking that it isn't going to hit Britain badly. Yes, it will be bad for the EU, it could even be very bad. But whatever the impact in on the EU, the impact on the UK is going to be significantly worse. And if we go ahead and leave on those terms, I suspect your tune is going to change from "it won't be that bad" to "it's only this bad because of the evil EU" at some point in 2021. Because, as I've said before, you aren't ever going to admit to being wrong or to blame, are you?
    When challenging a Kzin, a simple scream of rage is sufficient. You scream and you leap.
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  6. #26126
    The Insane Acidbaron's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Forogil View Post
    Likely true, as BMW will as any other car manufacturer switch export-production from the uk to EU/N. America, avoiding trade barriers.

    Some might switch some production for the uk-market to the uk (that's how car manufacturers often deal with trade barriers - some production inside the barrier) - but I doubt that they will be in a rush considering the current uncertainty and the state of industrial work in the uk in general.

    Another factor is that all major car manufacturers in the uk, except Aston Martin (the crown of the empire - seven times bankrupt), have owners elsewhere - and thus less attachment to the uk.


    Me neither, I work more with the engineering side, which for the uk has been more focused on racing cars.
    Besides the trade barriers that will increase the cost, from my understanding these plants often work together as they don't build all parts on site for the sake of reducing the production price. That will be an interesting challenge for the UK automotive industry.

    I am sure they would welcome the return of the mini 1 (hatch) in my plant.

    If i am not mistaken i believe most car manufacturers have already put investments on hold in the UK, although i am not sure all will be moved to the EU there are of course still cheaper options, end product quality be damned in those cases though. I don't see an abrupt ending of car production but it slowly being faded out if the current course of the UK is maintained over the coming decades, but i might be wrong since we are at point in the automotive industry at least in my opinion that there's another big switch happening to hybrid and electric models.

  7. #26127
    Quote Originally Posted by dribbles View Post
    Our EU cars might be more expensive true, which is to be fair a little irritating at most, perhaps I'll have to buy Japanese next. But nothing to really worry about. On the other hand I agree with Holger Bingmann who said this week :- A hard Brexit would have "catastrophic consequences" for Germany's exporters.

    https://www.dw.com/en/german-busines...oss/a-50725851

    A little niggle for the UK, catastrophic for the EU. Some perspective for you eurochums.



    Oooh nice site ty for that. For some balance...

    Only weeks left to save EU and UK auto sectors from €110 billion ‘no deal’ Brexit disaster

    https://www.acea.be/press-releases/a...on-no-deal-bre

    Again in the context of the EU in that article the word catastrophe appears, yet nothing but a little irritant for the UK dismissed with a shrug of the shoulders. A case of which economy relies more on car exports I guess.
    Your reading comprehension is terrible.

    From the latest article which you described as

    Again in the context of the EU in that article the word catastrophe appears, yet nothing but a little irritant for the UK dismissed with a shrug of the shoulders. A case of which economy relies more on car exports I guess.
    Yet the article, says:

    ‘No deal’ would mean combined EU-UK trade losses worth up to €110 billion to 2025, on top of around €100 billion in lost production value so far this year because of coronavirus crisis.
    New calculations suggest that, for cars and vans alone, a reduction in demand resulting from a 10% WTO tariff could wipe some three million units from EU and UK factory output over the next five years, with losses worth €52.8 billion to UK plants and €57.7 billion to those based across the EU.
    Obviously a 52.8 billion loss in the UK, with a smaller economy than the EU, represents a bigger loss. It's not the "shrug of the shoulders" you somehow read into it. It's a severe loss for both sides, which brexit always was. Yet you keep you "lol EU lost!!11" childish attituide, which first of all is a weird view when both sides looses on this, you're too ignorant to realise it tho.

  8. #26128
    Herald of the Titans dribbles's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Huehuecoyotl View Post
    A "little niggle"? So the loss of 7% of GDP growth would be a "little niggle" in your bizarre world?

    How about electricity and gas prices going up? Does that sound either small or minor to you?

    Or maybe a £1000 per capita reduction in income. That sounds a bit more than a tiny inconvience to me.

    You are on your own thinking that it isn't going to hit Britain badly. Yes, it will be bad for the EU, it could even be very bad. But whatever the impact in on the EU, the impact on the UK is going to be significantly worse. And if we go ahead and leave on those terms, I suspect your tune is going to change from "it won't be that bad" to "it's only this bad because of the evil EU" at some point in 2021. Because, as I've said before, you aren't ever going to admit to being wrong or to blame, are you?
    I won't be blaming anyone for the economic consequences of Covid in 2021 and which will be far more consequential than the tiny little blip, as the UK economy reboots and then booms post Covid, from and thanks to brexit. I tell you what I am looking forward to, having reading your last link ever from the BBC as today it is reported..

    A fox-hunting, Old Etonian Brexiteer is being appointed its chairman on a platform of abolishing the licence fee that will have Broadcasting House wokerati choking on their turmeric lattes


    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...-chairman.html

    Wonderful that the BBC might begin to represent the vast majority of the people in the UK like me who pay its licence fee, for not much longer hopefully, once again wouldn't you say? What will you do for sources after that?

    Oh as an aside I saw Sir Keir Starmer on Sky, know what he said? "Let's get Brexit done" hahaha google it if you don't believe me, you can't make this stuff up, who said that first? Only a few more weeks until we are free from the EU and even you, like Sir Keir supposedly in opposition, will be converted to become one of Boris's brexiteer disciples :P

    SOPHY RIDGE has questioned Sir Keir Starmer's sudden U-turn from a "passionate" Remainer to a Brexiteer, claiming the Labour leader had stolen Boris Johnson's language on "getting Brexit done".


    https://www.express.co.uk/news/polit...ge-latest-news

    We all see sense in the end, the BBC, Sir Keir and you will too.
    Britannia waives the rules!

  9. #26129
    Quote Originally Posted by dribbles View Post
    I won't be blaming anyone for the economic consequences of Covid in 2021 and which will be far more consequential than the tiny little blip, as the UK economy reboots and then booms post Covid, from and thanks to brexit. I tell you what I am looking forward to, having reading your last link ever from the BBC as today it is reported..

    A fox-hunting, Old Etonian Brexiteer is being appointed its chairman on a platform of abolishing the licence fee that will have Broadcasting House wokerati choking on their turmeric lattes


    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...-chairman.html

    Wonderful that the BBC might begin to represent the vast majority of the people in the UK like me who pay its licence fee, for not much longer hopefully, once again wouldn't you say? What will you do for sources after that?

    Oh as an aside I saw Sir Keir Starmer on Sky, know what he said? "Let's get Brexit done" hahaha google it if you don't believe me, you can't make this stuff up, who said that first? Only a few more weeks until we are free from the EU and even you, like Sir Keir supposedly in opposition, will be converted to become one of Boris's brexiteer disciples :P

    SOPHY RIDGE has questioned Sir Keir Starmer's sudden U-turn from a "passionate" Remainer to a Brexiteer, claiming the Labour leader had stolen Boris Johnson's language on "getting Brexit done".


    https://www.express.co.uk/news/polit...ge-latest-news

    We all see sense in the end, the BBC, Sir Keir and you will too.
    What will you do and say if, let's say hypothetically, the Brexit results in a major castrophe for the UK ? Just curious.

  10. #26130
    Quote Originally Posted by Specialka View Post
    What will you do and say if, let's say hypothetically, the Brexit results in a major castrophe for the UK ? Just curious.
    He’ll blame Jeremy Corbyn, Labour and Woke Culture. In that particular order, most likely.

    It’s hilarious that the OP is quoting the Express and Mail, which are the British equivalent of a love child offspring of FOX and the National Enquirer.
    Last edited by Valkyrst; 2020-09-20 at 02:22 PM.

  11. #26131
    Quote Originally Posted by Specialka View Post
    What will you do and say if, let's say hypothetically, the Brexit results in a major castrophe for the UK ? Just curious.
    You already know the answer to that. It is the fault of the EU, of Labour, of "remoaners" and a lack of true faith. People like him cannot ever accept that the enterprise in itself can have any negative consequences, these arise solely as the result of nay sayers not getting fully on board and showing unquestioning loyalty. But apparently it isn't a cult.
    Quote Originally Posted by Gelannerai View Post


    Remember, legally no one sane takes Tucker Carlson seriously.

  12. #26132
    Quote Originally Posted by tehealadin View Post
    You already know the answer to that. It is the fault of the EU, of Labour, of "remoaners" and a lack of true faith. People like him cannot ever accept that the enterprise in itself can have any negative consequences, these arise solely as the result of nay sayers not getting fully on board and showing unquestioning loyalty. But apparently it isn't a cult.
    Well, I want to hear it from here. But most leaders rooting for the Brexit leaving the ship just after the vote should give him an hint how it will all unfold.

  13. #26133
    Quote Originally Posted by dribbles View Post
    Again in the context of the EU in that article the word catastrophe appears, yet nothing but a little irritant for the UK dismissed with a shrug of the shoulders.
    Catastrophic was in the sentence:
    New calculations show the catastrophic impact of ‘no deal’ with WTO tariffs putting production of some 3 million EU and UK built cars and vans at risk over next five years.
    The context wasn't "EU" but "EU and UK".

    In reality it will be a catastrophe for the uk and an irritant for the EU, as uk exported 81.5% of the passenger cars made - 51% going to the EU, EU exported 38.3% of the cars with 12.4% going to the uk.
    Quote Originally Posted by dribbles View Post
    A case of which economy relies more on car exports I guess.
    Looking at the position paper by ACEA they call on both sides, but:
    https://www.acea.be/uploads/publicat...gotiations.pdf
    A no‐deal scenario should be avoided at all reasonable cost
    ...
    It would require a high degree of cooperation between the UK’s HM Revenue and Customs
    and customs authorities of EU member states, allowing information and data sharing
    between customs authorities so as to facilitate the smooth movement of goods through
    points of exit and entry into the UK and the EU.

    Finally, this would also require a transparent dispute settlement mechanism.
    ...
    The automotive sector on both sides of the Channel needs the United Kingdom to remain as closely
    aligned with EU regulation as possible.
    That was written before the uk decided to ignore the dispute settlement mechanism of the Withdrawal Agreement and began heading more clearly towards no-deal.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Acidbaron View Post
    Besides the trade barriers that will increase the cost, from my understanding these plants often work together as they don't build all parts on site for the sake of reducing the production price. That will be an interesting challenge for the UK automotive industry.
    Especially if they want to export, as the papers needed for "rules of origin" will be a lot messier.
    It seems that is more likely to hit the weaker part, i.e. the uk.

    Quote Originally Posted by Acidbaron View Post
    I don't see an abrupt ending of car production but it slowly being faded out if the current course of the UK is maintained over the coming decades, but i might be wrong since we are at point in the automotive industry at least in my opinion that there's another big switch happening to hybrid and electric models.
    Yes, the growth of hybrid and electric drive-trains and vehicles have been interesting to be part of and follow during the last decades and will likely continue.

    ACEA notes that without a good trade-deal the trade with electric vehicles (and some hybrids) will be hit really hard, since there isn't enough battery-manufacturing capacity in Europe, and thus batteries are imported from elsewhere. That means tariffs for electric vehicles even under normal "free trade agreements" since most of the cost is imported from elsewhere (according to rules of origin rules).

  14. #26134
    Quote Originally Posted by Valkyrst View Post
    He’ll blame Jeremy Corbyn, Labour and Woke Culture. In that particular order, most likely.
    Nah, COVID gave the muppets like dribbles the perfect scapegoat to blame for when Brexit goes further tits up.

    Everything will be down to COVID.

  15. #26135
    Quote Originally Posted by UnifiedDivide View Post
    Nah, COVID gave the muppets like dribbles the perfect scapegoat to blame for when Brexit goes further tits up.

    Everything will be down to COVID.
    Even though the actual spread of COVID is...the Tory Party's fault. They were in denial for so long.

  16. #26136
    Quote Originally Posted by Acidbaron View Post
    I don't see an abrupt ending of car production but it slowly being faded out if the current course of the UK is maintained over the coming decades, but i might be wrong since we are at point in the automotive industry at least in my opinion that there's another big switch happening to hybrid and electric models.
    That's a fact. I can confirm it. Big German automakers aren't putting a lot of research into combustible engines at the moment, their R&D is working overdrive on fuel cells and electric, however. I've had a fun conversation with an American about Tesla recently. Kept telling me how far Tesla is ahead and stuff. That poor soul has no idea about the numbers big automakers are putting out on a lazy day, let alone if they want to force you into the niche of exotic vehicles. Once Volkswagen and GM start pushing the agenda for real, Tesla will be in the same market segment as McLaren. Rare, expensive as fuck and really cool if you can afford it. Not something for a family.

    And I know at least Volkswagen in Germany has invested so much into electric that if that concept fails, the company might get into trouble. They are very much comitted already. Talking 44 billion in the next 5 years in investments into that sector.
    Last edited by Slant; 2020-09-21 at 12:41 AM.
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  17. #26137
    The Insane Acidbaron's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Slant View Post
    That's a fact. I can confirm it. Big German automakers aren't putting a lot of research into combustible engines at the moment, their R&D is working overdrive on fuel cells and electric, however. I've had a fun conversation with an American about Tesla recently. Kept telling me how far Tesla is ahead and stuff. That poor soul has no idea about the numbers big automakers are putting out on a lazy day, let alone if they want to force you into the niche of exotic vehicles. Once Volkswagen and GM start pushing the agenda for real, Tesla will be in the same market segment as McLaren. Rare, expensive as fuck and really cool if you can afford it. Not something for a family.

    And I know at least Volkswagen in Germany has invested so much into electric that if that concept fails, the company might get into trouble. They are very much comitted already. Talking 44 billion in the next 5 years in investments into that sector.
    Yes the numbers German companies put out are ridiculous, i mean my company in the Netherlands what is a small buffer company employed by BMW is capable of pushing out upward of 800 a day and that's BMW, people with their head in the clouds about Tesla should compare it to the town, yes not factory but town that is VW Wolfsburg.

    BMW and Mercedes are apparently pooling resources to catch up with hybrid and electrics. Tesla might do well with the smaller models but i don't see the big expensive cars breaking through here, there's also the EU tax of importing cars here that is designed to obviously defend their car makers.

    Tesla i see having a good shot what car brand i see having a real hard time here are the Chinese and recently the turkish brand. Turks might be nationalistic but i don't see them picking those cars over a mercedes, bmw, audi or VW.

  18. #26138
    Ah, thread pages are buggered again? If only this forum had a modern software running it...
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  19. #26139
    Void Lord Elegiac's Avatar
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    Not sure if this got posted yet but it looks like plans for a brand new network of BS (that's British satellites) to 'rival Galileo' just got scrapped.

    With some further reports indicating that parts of the government are pushing for post-Brexit participation in the EU's Galileo program as an alternative.

    Lol.
    "Multiculturalism has failed!" angrily types a person of European descent living in the Americas in a Germanic language using Roman characters on a device coded with Arabic numerals before leaving in a huff to go watch cartoons made in Japan.

  20. #26140
    No problem. Is gonna cost them a penny, tho.
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