View Poll Results: 10 days left, what'll it be?

Voters
92. You may not vote on this poll
  • Hard Brexit (crash out)

    45 48.91%
  • No Brexit (Remain by revoking A50)

    24 26.09%
  • Withdrawal Agreement (after a new session is called)

    0 0%
  • Extension + Withdrawal Agreement

    3 3.26%
  • Extension + Crashout

    9 9.78%
  • Extension + Remain

    11 11.96%
  1. #26941
    The Unstoppable Force Breccia's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2010
    Location
    NY, USA
    Posts
    24,618
    Quoted without further comment, because I don't feel I'm qualified to comment on EU economic affairs.

    British exports to EU could fall 14% in no-deal scenario: UN study

    British exports to the European Union could fall by as much as 14% if the two sides are unable to strike a free trade deal and could be 9% lower even if an agreement is reached, a United Nations study found.

    The imposition of tariffs under a no-deal scenario would crimp trade, with the effect amplified by so-called non-tariff measures (NTMs) such as quotas, licensing and regulatory measures protecting health, safety and the environment.

    NTMs would double the negative impact of tariffs and could lead to an overall $32 billion hit to British exports, according to the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) study released on Tuesday.

    The agriculture, food and beverages, and wood and paper sectors seem particularly exposed, it found, with a weaker impact on electrical and machinery, metal products, chemicals, and textiles and apparel.

    NTMs affect more than 80% of trade in developed counties and more than 90% in the European Union, it noted.

    Even if a “standard” free trade agreement emerged from the talks, British exports to the EU could still drop by 9%, dealing a major economic blow as the single market absorbs 46% of Britain’s sales abroad, it said.

    “EU membership has its advantages to deal with non-tariff measures that even the most comprehensive agreement cannot replicate,” UNCTAD’s director of international trade, Pamela Coke-Hamilton, said in a statement.

    No-one is above the law.

  2. #26942
    Aaaah Germany, I love ya <3


  3. #26943
    Quote Originally Posted by Breccia View Post
    Quoted without further comment, because I don't feel I'm qualified to comment on EU economic affairs.

    British exports to EU could fall 14% in no-deal scenario: UN study
    Lets just put the rest in to make sure everyone gets the full picture.

    In a no-deal scenario, Ireland’s exports to the United Kingdom are expected to drop 10% as a result of non-tariff measures and tariffs, the study based on 25 years of data found.

    On the other hand, exports from developing countries into Britain and to a smaller extent into the EU could increase if Britain does not increase tariffs for third countries, it added.

    The study did not estimate the impact of a “soft” exit scenario that largely maintains the status quo, saying much depends on the details of the relationship that results.

    Britain has said it wants a Canada-style trade deal with the EU, but the EU has said this would require Britain to accept a level playing field in areas from state aid to taxation.

    Britain has said that it does not want regulatory alignment with the bloc and that this was not what the EU demanded of Canada for a free trade deal.

  4. #26944
    Quote Originally Posted by The Glitch View Post
    Aaaah Germany, I love ya <3
    But, but, but... it was a "once in a generation" choice.

    I'm not sure they got his likeness right, though. He's less Kurt Cobain, more Cartman:


  5. #26945
    Void Lord Elegiac's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2012
    Location
    Quarantine and Chill
    Posts
    47,059
    Quote Originally Posted by LeGin Tufnel View Post
    But, but, but... it was a "once in a generation" choice.

    I'm not sure they got his likeness right, though. He's less Kurt Cobain, more Cartman:

    You know I would pay really good money for like, a Buzzfeed compilation where we contact the spirits of every previous Prime Minister and filmed their reaction to seeing this photo and being told this idiot obtained the premiership.
    Elizabeth Warren is the neighbor in the horror movie who drives by the haunted house and is like “hey guys seems bad in there want to come with me?” and America is the family that’s like “nah it’s probably not that bad there were only chainsaw noises in the night that one time!”

  6. #26946
    Quote Originally Posted by sircaw View Post
    Britain has said it wants a Canada-style trade deal with the EU, but the EU has said this would require Britain to accept a level playing field in areas from state aid to taxation.

    Britain has said that it does not want regulatory alignment with the bloc and that this was not what the EU demanded of Canada for a free trade deal.
    Well, tough.. that's how the cookie crumbles.
    Users with <20 posts and ignored shitposters are automatically invisible. Find out how to do that here and help clean up MMO-OT!
    “It’s majoritarian, the majority wins, it’s ruled by the majority for the majority – sod the minority. Whereas true democracy includes everybody’s opinion in society,” - Margaret Georgiadou, 2019 about Brexit referendum.
    PSA: Being a volunteer is no excuse to make a shite job of it.

  7. #26947
    Quote Originally Posted by Slant View Post
    Well, tough.. that's how the cookie crumbles.
    It will be a crumble for all if there is a no deal and the uk has already stated it is willing to walk away.

  8. #26948
    Void Lord Elegiac's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2012
    Location
    Quarantine and Chill
    Posts
    47,059
    Quote Originally Posted by sircaw View Post
    It will be a crumble for all if there is a no deal and the uk has already stated it is willing to walk away.
    Catch the EU doing their best Willy Wonka talking to Augustus Gloop impression.
    Elizabeth Warren is the neighbor in the horror movie who drives by the haunted house and is like “hey guys seems bad in there want to come with me?” and America is the family that’s like “nah it’s probably not that bad there were only chainsaw noises in the night that one time!”

  9. #26949
    Herald of the Titans dribbles's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2014
    Location
    Brexitia
    Posts
    2,616
    Quote Originally Posted by Huehuecoyotl View Post
    YOU JUST AGREED WE HADN'T YET A FEW POSTS AGO.

    ALSO, WHY ARE YOU SHOUTING SO MUCH? ARE YOU ANGRY THAT YOU STILL HAVEN'T GOT YOUR BREXIT UNICORN?

    It's like the slightly deaf racist old relative that you have to pretend to find amusing at Christmas. While they witter on about how terrible it is that they aren't allowed to call people darkies any more. "It's political correctness gone mad. Bring back National Service I say. I got buggered 5 times a night, but it made a man of me".
    Not shouting at all, just emphasis for the hard of hearing. So once again still don't believe me?

    "The UK has already left. We are a third party wanting to do a deal with the EU, not applying to remain in its legal orbit - in tomorrow’s Telegraph"

    https://twitter.com/RobbieGibb/statu...14906319867904

    How many people have to tell you before take your head out of the sand and accept it. For some remainers I swear it's a case of "I see no ships."

  10. #26950
    The Unstoppable Force Mayhem's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    pending...
    Posts
    20,989
    Quote Originally Posted by sircaw View Post
    It will be a crumble for all if there is a no deal and the uk has already stated it is willing to walk away.
    Ok, cheerio.

    Just. How. Dense.
    Quote Originally Posted by ash
    So, look um, I'm not a grief counselor, but if it's any consolation, I have had to kill and bury loved ones before.

    A bunch of times actually.

  11. #26951
    Quote Originally Posted by dribbles View Post
    Not shouting at all, just emphasis for the hard of hearing. So once again still don't believe me?

    "The UK has already left. We are a third party wanting to do a deal with the EU, not applying to remain in its legal orbit - in tomorrow’s Telegraph"

    https://twitter.com/RobbieGibb/statu...14906319867904

    How many people have to tell you before take your head out of the sand and accept it. For some remainers I swear it's a case of "I see no ships."
    If you hand your notice in at a job, but you are still sat at the desk working, you haven't left yet. You are going to leave, no question, but you haven't left yet.

    If this concept is too complicated for you to wrap your head around, it's little wonder you think Brexit is a great idea.

    Shall I add emphasis for the hard of thinking?
    When challenging a Kzin, a simple scream of rage is sufficient. You scream and you leap.

    Quote Originally Posted by George Carlin
    Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that.
    Brexophilia: The act of rubbing yourself against dead political ideas for sexual pleasure.

  12. #26952
    Quote Originally Posted by dribbles View Post
    Not shouting at all, just emphasis for the hard of hearing. So once again still don't believe me?

    "The UK has already left. We are a third party wanting to do a deal with the EU, not applying to remain in its legal orbit - in tomorrow’s Telegraph"

    https://twitter.com/RobbieGibb/statu...14906319867904

    How many people have to tell you before take your head out of the sand and accept it. For some remainers I swear it's a case of "I see no ships."
    I love that piece because 5 years ago the reaction would be the same as today. "Duh, that's how the EU works".
    If you want no tariff trade with the EU you have to align with EU regulations and provide a 'level playing field'. This is not a new position for the EU.
    This is not because the EU doesn't understand the UK is leaving, its the opposite. The UK is unable to understand it will leave and will therefor no longer get free and equal access unless they make commitments.
    If the UK wants free access they have be in the EU's orbit. The EU is fine with the UK wanting autonomy, but that means accepting trade will not be equal.

    As for the UK being willing to walk away. The EU has been preparing for a no-deal brexit since what, 2 years now? I'm betting they are more ready for it then the UK is.
    It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death

  13. #26953
    Elemental Lord zealo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2013
    Location
    Sweden
    Posts
    8,013
    Quote Originally Posted by Huehuecoyotl View Post
    If you hand your notice in at a job, but you are still sat at the desk working, you haven't left yet. You are going to leave, no question, but you haven't left yet.

    If this concept is too complicated for you to wrap your head around, it's little wonder you think Brexit is a great idea.

    Shall I add emphasis for the hard of thinking?
    Article 50 was the notice being handed in, the current situation is more like the UK having left, and is hanging around in the lobby and using the office gym that it has access to for a while yet.

  14. #26954
    Scarab Lord
    Join Date
    Oct 2015
    Location
    Baden-Wuerttemberg
    Posts
    4,921
    i wonder how next week will unfold, when for first time the negotiators will sit face to face and absolutely have to interact with each other instead of twitter their intentions and counterarguments or give press conferences.

  15. #26955
    Quote Originally Posted by ranzino View Post
    i wonder how next week will unfold, when for first time the negotiators will sit face to face and absolutely have to interact with each other instead of twitter their intentions and counterarguments or give press conferences.
    Eu will arrive with folders on folders.

    Tory will arrive with "I got it in my brain, that means I am more prepared... UK number1!"

  16. #26956
    Scarab Lord
    Join Date
    Oct 2015
    Location
    Baden-Wuerttemberg
    Posts
    4,921
    Quote Originally Posted by Kallisto View Post
    Eu will arrive with folders on folders.

    Tory will arrive with "I got it in my brain, that means I am more prepared... UK number1!"
    well, it might become a short first meeting, just saying "naaah, come again next week" to each other wont require much folders.

  17. #26957
    Quote Originally Posted by ranzino View Post
    i wonder how next week will unfold, when for first time the negotiators will sit face to face and absolutely have to interact with each other instead of twitter their intentions and counterarguments or give press conferences.
    The same way its gone for the last 2 years when they met to negotiate the WA?

    This is in no way the 'first time'.
    It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death

  18. #26958
    Quote Originally Posted by sircaw View Post
    It will be a crumble for all if there is a no deal and the uk has already stated it is willing to walk away.
    Yes, we are aware of that. We're fine with it. Just... do it instead of yapping on about how you're gonna shoot yourself in the foot all day long. It's getting old.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Gorsameth View Post
    As for the UK being willing to walk away. The EU has been preparing for a no-deal brexit since what, 2 years now? I'm betting they are more ready for it then the UK is.
    More like four years. Preparations started after the referendum.
    Users with <20 posts and ignored shitposters are automatically invisible. Find out how to do that here and help clean up MMO-OT!
    “It’s majoritarian, the majority wins, it’s ruled by the majority for the majority – sod the minority. Whereas true democracy includes everybody’s opinion in society,” - Margaret Georgiadou, 2019 about Brexit referendum.
    PSA: Being a volunteer is no excuse to make a shite job of it.

  19. #26959
    Scarab Lord
    Join Date
    Oct 2015
    Location
    Baden-Wuerttemberg
    Posts
    4,921
    Quote Originally Posted by Gorsameth View Post
    The same way its gone for the last 2 years when they met to negotiate the WA?

    This is in no way the 'first time'.
    afaik David Frost was not part of WA negotiations and is new to the table.
    and it is always a first time when you cannot talk about the issues to others, but absolutely have to talk sense. Frost cannot talk to Barnier like No10 does to audience of Daily Mail etc.

  20. #26960
    Quote Originally Posted by ranzino View Post
    afaik David Frost was not part of WA negotiations and is new to the table.
    and it is always a first time when you cannot talk about the issues to others, but absolutely have to talk sense. Frost cannot talk to Barnier like No10 does to audience of Daily Mail etc.
    He is an experiences negotiator judging by his list of positions. He knows what he is getting into and knows how to handle a top level negotiation.

    Don't mix camera PR with closed door negotiations.
    The negotiations might turn into a mess but that is no different from the last 2 years and will be from the UK having an unobtainable goal.
    It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •