View Poll Results: 10 days left, what'll it be?

Voters
92. You may not vote on this poll
  • Hard Brexit (crash out)

    45 48.91%
  • No Brexit (Remain by revoking A50)

    24 26.09%
  • Withdrawal Agreement (after a new session is called)

    0 0%
  • Extension + Withdrawal Agreement

    3 3.26%
  • Extension + Crashout

    9 9.78%
  • Extension + Remain

    11 11.96%
  1. #27041
    Quote Originally Posted by Forogil View Post
    What about the big noses that you also wanted to reject people for?

    Is it the common big-nose-allergy, that also causes you to eat the tenants cheese?
    The man he mentions also refused to rent to single parents, people on benefits, people that "had new babies" and people on zero hour contracts. Wonder if he's allergic to those, too.
    Often updated... ?

  2. #27042
    Pandaren Monk Teleros's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by UnifiedDivide View Post
    Wonder if he's allergic to those, too.
    Could be. I blame the vaccines.
    Still not tired of winning.

  3. #27043
    Quote Originally Posted by Teleros View Post
    Could be. I blame the vaccines.
    That surprisingly wouldn't shock me.
    Often updated... ?

  4. #27044
    https://www.businessinsider.de/inter...e-deal-2020-3/

    Brexit could cost the UK up to 30 times more than it will gain back from striking a Trump trade deal

  5. #27045
    The Unstoppable Force Mayhem's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by dribbles View Post
    I have an allergy to cheese and garlic. That makes me a racist?
    No, but do tell how someone's nose relates to your food allergies.
    Quote Originally Posted by ash
    So, look um, I'm not a grief counselor, but if it's any consolation, I have had to kill and bury loved ones before.

    A bunch of times actually.

  6. #27046
    Quote Originally Posted by Mayhem View Post
    No, but do tell how someone's nose relates to your food allergies.
    Those are probably just more related to stereotyping. You know, Swiss tenants always eat a lot of cheese, so one just can't have those with an allergy.

    The racist thing probably stems from that assumption that everyone from a given country/region eats lots of the same stuff. Idk. It's Dribbles. Making sense is optional, as long as he can be against the EU/Europeans in some fashion.

  7. #27047
    Herald of the Titans dribbles's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mayhem View Post
    No, but do tell how someone's nose relates to your food allergies.
    The point I was making, my property I choose who lives in it. For whatever reason I think, but perhaps am not able to say thanks to stupid EU rules. Whether that's potential tenants with a bad haircut, tattoos, white socks, or a big nose. I believe nightclubs etc quite openly place the very same thing on all their flyers inviting entry to their property.

    R.O.A.R.

    No one accuses them of racism, they just perhaps don't want Esmerelda at the party.

    Now we have left, the UK will benefit from a bonfire of EU rules.

    Quote Originally Posted by Kiri View Post
    Those are probably just more related to stereotyping. You know, Swiss tenants always eat a lot of cheese, so one just can't have those with an allergy.

    The racist thing probably stems from that assumption that everyone from a given country/region eats lots of the same stuff. Idk. It's Dribbles. Making sense is optional, as long as he can be against the EU/Europeans in some fashion.
    You are confused my dear, anti EU does not equal anti Europeans. That might be considered racist...

  8. #27048
    Quote Originally Posted by dribbles View Post
    The point I was making, my property I choose who lives in it. For whatever reason I think, but perhaps am not able to say thanks to stupid EU rules.
    So you're just upset that you can't be open and vocal about your prejudices?

    Now we have left
    This still isn't true. Is this the Trump tactic of "if I repeat it enough, maybe people will believe it"?
    Often updated... ?

  9. #27049
    The Unstoppable Force Mayhem's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by dribbles View Post
    The point I was making, my property I choose who lives in it. For whatever reason I think, but perhaps am not able to say thanks to stupid EU rules. Whether that's potential tenants with a bad haircut, tattoos, white socks, or a big nose. I believe nightclubs etc quite openly place the very same thing on all their flyers inviting entry to their property.
    So you want to be racist openly not quietly, that's what this is about, got it.
    Quote Originally Posted by ash
    So, look um, I'm not a grief counselor, but if it's any consolation, I have had to kill and bury loved ones before.

    A bunch of times actually.

  10. #27050
    Pandaren Monk Teleros's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Inuyaki View Post
    Brexit could
    There's one of those magic words again. "Brexit could, maybe, in theory, possibly, based on our model, might, do X."

    Oh, and it's all based on GDP figures. Meaning both the "cost" of Brexit and the "benefits" of a UK-USA FTA are nonsense figures.

    Ah well. Got to keep those Project Fear types employed somehow I guess.
    Still not tired of winning.

  11. #27051
    Quote Originally Posted by Teleros View Post
    There's one of those magic words again. "Brexit could, maybe, in theory, possibly, based on our model, might, do X."

    Oh, and it's all based on GDP figures. Meaning both the "cost" of Brexit and the "benefits" of a UK-USA FTA are nonsense figures.

    Ah well. Got to keep those Project Fear types employed somehow I guess.
    There is no doubt that the government's own analysis shows that the benefits to the UK economy from a potential UK/US FTA are minimal and in no-way offsets the potential loss of growth from leaving the EU on the terms of Johnson's deal.

    GDP is a poor measure as to how Brexit will impact the everyday man and woman but it is far from a nonsense figure.

    Whilst I recognise that for many leavers Brexit was never an economic decision you have to recognise that there is going to an economic cost and that it worries a great many people in the UK. To be quite honest the boat dismissing any negative aspect of Brexit as project fear has long since sailed and you now - more than ever - need to be countering those arguments with facts and/or tangible benefits.

  12. #27052
    It's been a month now, surely there have to be lots of stories how your lives got better without the EU. Anyone care to link some articles?

  13. #27053
    Quote Originally Posted by Teleros View Post
    There's one of those magic words again. "Brexit could, maybe, in theory, possibly, based on our model, might, do X."

    Oh, and it's all based on GDP figures. Meaning both the "cost" of Brexit and the "benefits" of a UK-USA FTA are nonsense figures.

    Ah well. Got to keep those Project Fear types employed somehow I guess.
    What? ...


    1) That is the title of that article I posted, that was not anything I wrote...
    2) Those numbers are BOTH from the UK government!

  14. #27054
    Pandaren Monk Teleros's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pann View Post
    There is no doubt that the government's own analysis shows that the benefits to the UK economy from a potential UK/US FTA are minimal and in no-way offsets the potential loss of growth from leaving the EU on the terms of Johnson's deal.
    I think there's little doubt that a US-UK FTA won't replace the one we had with the EU by being in the EU, but that should be obvious given the relative market shares of the EU & USA when it comes to the UK's trading partners.

    Quote Originally Posted by Pann View Post
    GDP is a poor measure as to how Brexit will impact the everyday man and woman but it is far from a nonsense figure.
    It absolutely is a nonsense figure, given the way it is calculated. For example, the UK imports more than it exports. Want a quick & easy way to bump up the GDP figures? Erect massive tariffs on all imports - or even ban them altogether. Because of the way GDP is calculated, that will increase GDP (C+I+G+X-M vs C+I+G+X-0, basically). The government could double, if not triple, GDP tomorrow by borrowing £2tn from the Bank of England and then giving every family in the UK a share, or by spending it on whatever it wants.

    On the other hand, what isn't calculated? Taxes & servicing debt both take money out of the economy, but they are left out - funny, that.

    Then there are all the adjustments and such made over time. The USA was in recession in 2001 according to reporting at the time... until the BEA finished adjusting the figures and made the recession disappear. So... was it in recession? Who knows, because the metric we use - GDP - is a retarded one.

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB100678701961876400

    vs

    https://www.multpl.com/us-real-gdp-g...ble/by-quarter

    Quote Originally Posted by Pann View Post
    Whilst I recognise that for many leavers Brexit was never an economic decision you have to recognise that there is going to an economic cost and that it worries a great many people in the UK.
    Sure, but I'm attacking (a) the routine where people say what "could" happen etc, and (b) the numbers, which are nonsense.

    Edit:

    Quote Originally Posted by Inuyaki View Post
    1) That is the title of that article I posted, that was not anything I wrote...
    Not attacking you.

    Quote Originally Posted by Inuyaki View Post
    2) Those numbers are BOTH from the UK government!
    Yup.
    Still not tired of winning.

  15. #27055
    Quote Originally Posted by Teleros View Post
    I think there's little doubt that a US-UK FTA won't replace the one we had with the EU by being in the EU, but that should be obvious given the relative market shares of the EU & USA when it comes to the UK's trading partners.
    One of the touted benefits of Brexit was that it is a big wide world out there and by leaving the EU we would no longer be held back and would able to exploit the opportunities on offer.

    Now it turns out that a trade deal with our largest trading partner (in terms of exports) is not all it's cracked up to be and that economically we'd probably be better off if everyone looked down the back of their sofa and spent the change they found.

    Quote Originally Posted by Teleros View Post
    It absolutely is a nonsense figure, given the way it is calculated. For example, the UK imports more than it exports. Want a quick & easy way to bump up the GDP figures? Erect massive tariffs on all imports - or even ban them altogether. Because of the way GDP is calculated, that will increase GDP (C+I+G+X-M vs C+I+G+X-0, basically). The government could double, if not triple, GDP tomorrow by borrowing £2tn from the Bank of England and then giving every family in the UK a share, or by spending it on whatever it wants.

    On the other hand, what isn't calculated? Taxes & servicing debt both take money out of the economy, but they are left out - funny, that.

    Then there are all the adjustments and such made over time. The USA was in recession in 2001 according to reporting at the time... until the BEA finished adjusting the figures and made the recession disappear. So... was it in recession? Who knows, because the metric we use - GDP - is a retarded one.

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB100678701961876400

    vs

    https://www.multpl.com/us-real-gdp-g...ble/by-quarter
    GDP like all figures is only useful as a tool if it is used properly. The comparison, in this case, as to how certain outcomes will influence UK GDP is perfectly valid - hence our own, pro-Brexit, government using them.

    Other factors will influence GDP and it is possible that even with a fall in GDP the average UK citizen will not notice any difference to their lives - it may even be the case that despite a contraction in GDP tariff reductions or other stimulus means that the average person is slightly better off - but figures cannot be dismissed because on their own they do not tell the whole story or because they do not give the desired result.

    Quote Originally Posted by Teleros View Post
    Sure, but I'm attacking (a) the routine where people say what "could" happen etc, and (b) the numbers, which are nonsense.
    But ultimately this line of argument is no more sophisticated than economic predictions are complicated therefore just ignore them.

  16. #27056
    Quote Originally Posted by dribbles View Post
    The point I was making, my property I choose who lives in it. For whatever reason I think, but perhaps am not able to say thanks to stupid EU rules. Whether that's potential tenants with a bad haircut, tattoos, white socks, or a big nose. I believe nightclubs etc quite openly place the very same thing on all their flyers inviting entry to their property.

    R.O.A.R.

    No one accuses them of racism, they just perhaps don't want Esmerelda at the party.
    Of course night-clubs are accused for racism, just bing it:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...le-environment
    https://www.bbc.com/news/newsbeat-44440799

    I don't know why it just "randomly" picked news-stories from London.

    And it was more a matter of exposing your ridiculous claim that it wasn't racism - just allergy to garlic, cheese (still unclear why you have to eat people's food), and big-noses.

  17. #27057
    Pandaren Monk Teleros's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pann View Post
    One of the touted benefits of Brexit was that it is a big wide world out there and by leaving the EU we would no longer be held back and would able to exploit the opportunities on offer.
    Right, but remember this is only the USA. Granted, it might not be fair to say "only" the USA, but there's the whole Commonwealth and more for us to do deals with too.

    Quote Originally Posted by Pann View Post
    GDP like all figures is only useful as a tool if it is used properly. The comparison, in this case, as to how certain outcomes will influence UK GDP is perfectly valid - hence our own, pro-Brexit, government using them.
    Oh, well sure if you just want to play with numbers, yeah there's nothing wrong with GDP. As a measure of the actual economy though, it sucks hard.

    Quote Originally Posted by Pann View Post
    But ultimately this line of argument is no more sophisticated than economic predictions are complicated therefore just ignore them.
    Nah, it's more that I'd like to see more useful numbers. For example, real wages, expected tax revenues, (un)employment, expected FDI... I'll grant you that condensing it all into one number (GDP) is simpler and makes for nicer headlines, but the examples I just gave will provide much better information as to the strength of the real economy than GDP.
    Still not tired of winning.

  18. #27058
    Quote Originally Posted by Teleros View Post
    Right, but remember this is only the USA. Granted, it might not be fair to say "only" the USA, but there's the whole Commonwealth and more for us to do deals with too.
    Have you even looked at the types of imports and exports you have to and from the EU?
    https://researchbriefings.parliament...mmary/CBP-7851
    Click on the full pdf report. It's cars, medicines and machinery both ways. Services get more interesting even.
    Are you seriously planning to compensate financial services and tourism with the US or the commonwealth? Or buy tata cars?

  19. #27059
    Quote Originally Posted by Teleros View Post
    Right, but remember this is only the USA. Granted, it might not be fair to say "only" the USA, but there's the whole Commonwealth and more for us to do deals with too.
    Only the USA? The US is largest economy on the planet and biggest single destination for our exports and the result of a trade deal with this powerhouse is... well... it's a rounding error.

    To say that I am not optimistic that trade deals with Commonwealth nations will yield better results would be an understatement.

    Quote Originally Posted by Teleros View Post
    Oh, well sure if you just want to play with numbers, yeah there's nothing wrong with GDP. As a measure of the actual economy though, it sucks hard.
    In terms of comparing the outcomes of potential trading relationships GDP is a valid metric.

    Quote Originally Posted by Teleros View Post
    Nah, it's more that I'd like to see more useful numbers. For example, real wages, expected tax revenues, (un)employment, expected FDI... I'll grant you that condensing it all into one number (GDP) is simpler and makes for nicer headlines, but the examples I just gave will provide much better information as to the strength of the real economy than GDP.
    All of those figures are much, much harder to predict than GDP - which in itself is difficult to predict. The point of the government figures is not to give an absolute answer but to highlight the different outcomes of different trade relationships.
    Last edited by Pann; 2020-03-03 at 09:10 PM.

  20. #27060
    Pandaren Monk Teleros's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Demolitia View Post
    Click on the full pdf report. It's cars, medicines and machinery both ways. Services get more interesting even.
    Are you seriously planning to compensate financial services and tourism with the US or the commonwealth? Or buy tata cars?
    Are you seriously suggesting there won't be UK-EU trade post Brexit, even in the event of a complete failure to reach any kind of deal?

    Quote Originally Posted by Pann View Post
    To say that I am not optimistic that trade deals with Commonwealth nations will yield better results would be an understatement.
    Mhmm, my point is just that it's not fair to model a situation where you focus only on one country.

    Quote Originally Posted by Pann View Post
    In terms of comparing the outcomes of potential trading relationships GDP is a valid metric.
    Going to disagree here.

    Quote Originally Posted by Pann View Post
    All of those figures are much, much harder to predict than GDP - which in itself is difficult to predict. The point of the government figures is not to give an absolute answer but to highlight the different outcomes of different trade relationships.
    To my mind, the GDP stuff is a case of "garbage in, garbage out". It's much easier to work with the figures I gave, because frankly a lot of it is much easier to get a hold of if you're the government. Through the income tax system you can get a very good picture of family incomes etc over the years, productivity numbers by industry aren't too hard to get a hold of either - and there you go, that's the core of what you'll want if you want to compare, say, UK car manufacturing wages before & after a UK-USA FTA.
    Still not tired of winning.

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