View Poll Results: 10 days left, what'll it be?

Voters
92. This poll is closed
  • Hard Brexit (crash out)

    45 48.91%
  • No Brexit (Remain by revoking A50)

    24 26.09%
  • Withdrawal Agreement (after a new session is called)

    0 0%
  • Extension + Withdrawal Agreement

    3 3.26%
  • Extension + Crashout

    9 9.78%
  • Extension + Remain

    11 11.96%
  1. #7901
    Quote Originally Posted by Dhrizzle View Post
    Like I said you're just confused by basic semantics, let it go.
    It is not semantics. You are wrong.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dhrizzle View Post
    Free movement of people is part of the single market, not customs union. Customs union (with regulatory allignment) would do away with the need for a border. The "technicalities" that lead to Starmer calling it "a" customs union rather than "the" customs union is the fact that we will be losing the arrangements we have as EU members and making a new treaty. Just semantics, you can let it go.

    Do you have a source from after February with Corbyn changing his mind and saying he is now against customs union?
    Indeed free movement is part of the single market however Starmer explicitly stated that by being a member of this customs union there would be no border in which case we must accept freedom of movement. Or do EU red lines only apply to Tory proposals?

    Starmer never explained what the technicalities might or might not be so why do you keep trying to explain them to me? Do you not realise you're making things up?

    Why would I have a source for something I have not said?

  2. #7902
    Quote Originally Posted by Pann View Post
    You're right Corbyn did come out at the beginning of year and say that Labour wanted to be in a customs union with the EU, he also said that this would avoid the need for a hard Irish border which is of course nonsense.

    Oh now don't be like that. I think it is important to keep the distinction between "the" and "a" as one is an actual real life working system and the other is absolute twaddle.
    There might be a few technicalities, but in essence a customs union should be enough to honour the Good Friday Agreement which is probably the most important factor at the moment.

    Can you explain what you imagine the difference between "the" customs union and "a" customs union would be as you seem to be really bothered about some aspect of it?

  3. #7903
    Quote Originally Posted by Dhrizzle View Post
    Not much, negotiations are still at a standstill but now things are getting more desperate. Labour leadership have modified their stance to be more in line with the wishes of party membership and, depending on the results of negotiation, may back a referendum on the EU deal including an option to remain.
    Oh yeah, they've modified their stance to say they might or might not back a referendum on the EU deal and they might or might not support the option to remain in the EU in the referendum which they may or may not support.

    But you forgot the really important part in that Labour will vote against any deal, that doesn't meet their six tests, which will more than likely see us ending up without a deal.

  4. #7904
    Quote Originally Posted by Pann View Post
    It is not semantics. You are wrong.
    Not really...

    Indeed free movement is part of the single market however Starmer explicitly stated that by being a member of this customs union there would be no border in which case we must accept freedom of movement. Or do EU red lines only apply to Tory proposals?
    You're failing to see the difference between free travel (where people are allowed to move from one country to another) and the free-market's free movement of people (where workers are free to work in any EU country.) Just because a citizen of an EU country can walk across the border from Eire to NI and on to the mainland UK it doesn't mean they will have the right to seek employment.

    Starmer never explained what the technicalities might or might not be so why do you keep trying to explain them to me? Do you not realise you're making things up?
    Starmer said the party wanted the UK to have “a” customs union with the EU after Brexit, rather than to remain in “the” customs union, but he also said this distinction was merely technical and that in practice the effect would be the same.

    “The customs arrangements at the moment are hardwired into the membership treaty, so I think everybody now recognises there is going to have to be a new treaty [between the UK and the EU]. It will do the work of the customs union. So it is a customs union,” Starmer said.

    “But will it do the work of the current customs union? Yes, that’s the intention.”
    Why would I have a source for something I have not said?
    A few posts back you said that Corbyn was against a custom's union and I knew in February he had changed that stance. I was asking if you had a source that backed your claim which superceded mine.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by cubby View Post
    Damn. That would be quite a development. Thanks.
    It's leading to some potentially major rifts in the Labour party, particularly among MPs who's constituents voted to Leave the EU.

  5. #7905
    Quote Originally Posted by Dhrizzle View Post
    There might be a few technicalities, but in essence a customs union should be enough to honour the Good Friday Agreement which is probably the most important factor at the moment.

    Can you explain what you imagine the difference between "the" customs union and "a" customs union would be as you seem to be really bothered about some aspect of it?
    Oh this should be good. How exactly do you think that a customs union will be enough to honour the GFA?

    Do you really need it explaining? Well okay then. The Customs Union is a union where EU member states and some non member stated agree a common tariff rate for imports from third countries. A Customs Union, in this context, is smoke and mirrors that the Labour party hopes both leave and remain voters will not see through.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Dhrizzle View Post
    Not really...
    No, really you are.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dhrizzle View Post
    You're failing to see the difference between free travel (where people are allowed to move from one country to another) and the free-market's free movement of people (where workers are free to work in any EU country.) Just because a citizen of an EU country can walk across the border from Eire to NI and on to the mainland UK it doesn't mean they will have the right to seek employment.
    Complete nonsense. One of the EU four pillars is free movement of labour not free movement to go on the lash in Spain. You either have a border or you have free movement of workers. The CU does not solve this.


    Quote Originally Posted by Dhrizzle View Post
    A few posts back you said that Corbyn was against a custom's union and I knew in February he had changed that stance. I was asking if you had a source that backed your claim which superceded mine.
    I did say that Corbyn was against a customs union a point which you seem to acknowledge.

  6. #7906
    Quote Originally Posted by Pann View Post
    Oh this should be good. How exactly do you think that a customs union will be enough to honour the GFA?
    By keeping the Eire/NI border invisible.

    Do you really need it explaining? Well okay then. The Customs Union is a union where EU member states and some non member stated agree a common tariff rate for imports from third countries. A Customs Union, in this context, is smoke and mirrors that the Labour party hopes both leave and remain voters will not see through.
    Okay, Starmer has said Labour want the customs union post-Brexit to do the same job as the customs union pre-Brexit. He explained he only referred to one as "the" customs union and the other as "a" customs union because leaving the EU will abolish one union and a treaty will have to be made to establish a new union.

    You are under the impression there will be some substantial differences in the pre- and post-Brexit unions, I would like to know what you imagine those differences will be.

    Complete nonsense. One of the EU four pillars is free movement of labour not free movement to go on the lash in Spain. You either have a border or you have free movement of workers. The CU does not solve this.
    The UK will be leaving the EU and will no longer have to accept the free movement of workers. It is entirely possible for the UK and Eire to maintain the common travel agreement (allowing people to move from one to the other) without UK businesses employing people from the EU.

    I did say that Corbyn was against a customs union a point which you seem to acknowledge.
    Perhaps he was but now he isn't, a point you have acknowledged but after I asked if you had a source for him currently being against CU.

  7. #7907
    Quote Originally Posted by Maklor View Post
    Except it's not - Ireland are under obligation to enforce border control.
    Why is that?

  8. #7908
    Quote Originally Posted by Dhrizzle View Post
    Why is that?
    WTO agreements. Not sure of the wording but nations/organizations (Like EU) under WTO rules need to enforce borders if no deal stating otherwise are implemented. No deals will be agreed since the red lines on each side are simply put unacceptable to the other.

    The UK red line of all of UK being out (including N.Ireland) means that essentially the border has to be with northern ireland. Since the EU red line is that no part of the EU is to be forced out of the free movement (This is also the republic of Ireland view). Both sides want to have no borders within Ireland for that to happen one of the two needs to happen.

    Either A) The UK essentially puts the border in the Irish sea, basically all but abandoning Northern Ireland. If this happens the DUP will abandon May, the Unionist course in Northern Ireland is all but dead. Likely the troubles resume with the Unionist forces starting up.

    or very very very unlikely (borderline impossible)

    B) The EU somehow relents essentially abandoning Ireland essentially creating Irexit by default. Ireland will not allow this. The EU will not allow this.

    C) The hard brexit view and what we're going to crash into is Hard border on the republic. This WILL re-ignite the troubles and hard. Border towns in Northern Ireland rely on the south, people work, shop there. Farmers actually have farms that cross the border. Good Friday will be officially dead. The Real (or new) IRA is still active and has been causing low key problems as well as murders in Northern Ireland. End of Good Friday could give them and the Continuity IRA more recruits especially after mass job losses will happen.

    Ok that was going off topic a bit but back to the reply.

    Essentially WTO rules make Ireland obligated to enforce the border. Also EU laws too, especially EU not wanting non EU (Aka UK) stuff into the market without checks and taxes put on it. Like it would with any 3rd party state.

  9. #7909
    Quote Originally Posted by Kallisto View Post
    Essentially WTO rules make Ireland obligated to enforce the border. Also EU laws too, especially EU not wanting non EU (Aka UK) stuff into the market without checks and taxes put on it. Like it would with any 3rd party state.
    I meant in the scenario where Labour lead Brexit and have a customs union which I think should make WTO rules a non-issue.

  10. #7910
    Quote Originally Posted by Dhrizzle View Post
    I meant in the scenario where Labour lead Brexit and have a customs union which I think should make WTO rules a non-issue.
    I'm guessing Labour will try to get trade deals from outside EU too. Essentially say something comes from US into UK, the EU will still need to check it (well Ireland) and make sure all necessary taxes/fees are applied.

  11. #7911
    There was/is also the option of custom-wise moving the border to the Irish Sea while still keeping NI in the UK - The most logical solution I'd say given the current circumstances but sadly not likely to happen given the DUP stance.

  12. #7912
    Quote Originally Posted by Kallisto View Post
    I'm guessing Labour will try to get trade deals from outside EU too. Essentially say something comes from US into UK, the EU will still need to check it (well Ireland) and make sure all necessary taxes/fees are applied.
    I'm pretty sure a customs union with the EU would prevent the UK making its own trade deals. They're important to the Conservatives because it gives some space for party members or supporters to enrich themselves but Labour seem to appreciate that on a national level it is better to have the EU negotiate on our behalf.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Nymrohd View Post
    A customs union means a softer border but a border still needs to exist for other regulatory divergence. Until the EEC was changed and the Single Market emerged, all EEC countries still maintained border controls despite an existing customs union (even Schengen countries) for this reason and thus a customs union would not avoid customs infrastructure in Ireland.
    The only way for no border in Ireland is:
    The UK staying in the EU or leaving and joining the EFTA
    Ireland leaving the EU (or being constantly censured and fined for failing to uphold their duty to check customs for the EU; e.g. the UK and others have been repeatedly fined for letting in Chinese counterfeits)
    Northern Ireland leaving the UK (the GFA allows for a referendum at any point but I understand it would be very unlikely that uniting Ireland would win).
    Some magical unicorn solution explodes out of May's ass in an eruption of rainbows and enchants the world trading community to ignore the glaring issues Barnier has pointed out repeatedly.
    Labour would be more willing to negotiate things like regulatory allignment without having to pitch unicorn solutions to appease Tory backbenchers. The EU has been pretty harsh on May's rainbow assplosion solutions but I'm reasonably sure that a CU would allow for negotiating an invisible border on the island of Irelamd.

  13. #7913
    Quote Originally Posted by Dhrizzle View Post
    Why is that?
    For one, because WTO. Second, because the EU needs to ensure the integrity of its outer border.
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  14. #7914
    Quote Originally Posted by Dhrizzle View Post
    By keeping the Eire/NI border invisible.
    Being in the CU would not do this.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dhrizzle View Post
    Okay, Starmer has said Labour want the customs union post-Brexit to do the same job as the customs union pre-Brexit. He explained he only referred to one as "the" customs union and the other as "a" customs union because leaving the EU will abolish one union and a treaty will have to be made to establish a new union.

    You are under the impression there will be some substantial differences in the pre- and post-Brexit unions, I would like to know what you imagine those differences will be.
    He did, however he did not explain how this would be achieved. No, he didn't explain that at all. Stop making things up.

    I am under the impression there will be differences between the existing CU and Labour's proposed CU because they said there will be differences until Labour explains what these differences are, unlike yourself, I am in no position to say whether they are substantial or not.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dhrizzle View Post
    The UK will be leaving the EU and will no longer have to accept the free movement of workers. It is entirely possible for the UK and Eire to maintain the common travel agreement (allowing people to move from one to the other) without UK businesses employing people from the EU.
    It is not. The EU have been quite clear, from the beginning, that they will not allow this kind of cherry picking.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dhrizzle View Post
    Perhaps he was but now he isn't, a point you have acknowledged but after I asked if you had a source for him currently being against CU.
    Why would I provide you with a source to something I never said?

  15. #7915
    Quote Originally Posted by Gibblewink View Post
    There was/is also the option of custom-wise moving the border to the Irish Sea while still keeping NI in the UK - The most logical solution I'd say given the current circumstances but sadly not likely to happen given the DUP stance.
    Someone pointed out that allowing NI to remain in the single market would open the door for Scotland demanding the same (Scotland also voted to Remain.) My solution would be to give NI a vote on becoming a British Overseas Territory so they could negotiate a customised relationship with the EU and the UK. Scotland couldn't ask for the same as it is not overseas and we may be able to leverage a better deal for Gibraltar and/or the Crown Colonies.

    Of course none of that is likely. The Conservatives have their hands tied by the DUP and a non-Conservative government would.want a CU or possibly even EFTA membership before splitting the Union.

  16. #7916
    https://news.sky.com/story/live-pm-u...-plan-11514996

    And there goes the last hope to a soft Brexit. I think May has truly not seen the signs. They're still talking about "the ball being in the EU's court", which is somewhat ridiculous... vague analogies? Really? The time is gone for that.
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  17. #7917
    Quote Originally Posted by Slant View Post
    https://news.sky.com/story/live-pm-u...-plan-11514996

    And there goes the last hope to a soft Brexit. I think May has truly not seen the signs. They're still talking about "the ball being in the EU's court", which is somewhat ridiculous... vague analogies? Really? The time is gone for that.
    Ah, so they moved on to the whole 'merit based immigration system' shtick that Trump is also promoting.

  18. #7918
    Quote Originally Posted by Slant View Post
    https://news.sky.com/story/live-pm-u...-plan-11514996

    And there goes the last hope to a soft Brexit. I think May has truly not seen the signs. They're still talking about "the ball being in the EU's court", which is somewhat ridiculous... vague analogies? Really? The time is gone for that.
    I still don't get it. They must know in this poker game they have basically 5 non adjacent cards of a mix of the 4 suits while at worst the EU has 4 of a kind, at best a royal flush. They need to fold and accept what the best deal that can happen is.

  19. #7919
    Quote Originally Posted by Kallisto View Post
    I still don't get it. They must know in this poker game they have basically 5 non adjacent cards of a mix of the 4 suits while at worst the EU has 4 of a kind, at best a royal flush. They need to fold and accept what the best deal that can happen is.
    Well, to stay in the poker analogy, the money is in the pot, the cards have been dealt, now is actually the time to show your cards. There is no more time left for weird political tricks and buff games.
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  20. #7920
    I am Murloc!
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    Quote Originally Posted by Slant View Post
    Well, to stay in the poker analogy, the money is in the pot, the cards have been dealt, now is actually the time to show your cards. There is no more time left for weird political tricks and buff games.
    but UK insist they got a nice hand already and bluff the EU. we should go "all in" and call the bluff now.

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